Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Austin, TX, May 14, 2015 Gary Langer, Chad Kiewet de Jonge and Gregory Holyk Langer Research Associates

1. The 2016 Elections:
Exit Polls and Trumpismo
Presented at the annual meeting
of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Austin, Texas
May 14, 2016
Gary Langer, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge and Gregory Holyk
Langer Research Associates

2. Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Unemployment Rate
Aug. 2008 - present
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10.0
6.1
5.0

3. 10.8
9.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U6 Rate
Percent unemployed or marginally attached
Bureau of Labor Statistics

4. 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Long-term Unemployment
Percentage of those unemployed for 27 weeks or more
Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Median weekly earnings
1979-2014
Bureau of Labor Statistics
No college degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher
68% of U.S.
population >25
-9.1%
+22.6%

6. 10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
4/24/16
3/27/16
2/28/16
1/31/16
1/3/16
12/6/15
11/8/15
10/11/15
9/13/15
8/16/15
7/19/15
6/21/15
5/24/15
4/26/15
3/29/15
3/1/15
2/1/15
1/4/15
12/7/14
11/9/14
10/12/14
9/14/14
8/17/14
7/20/14
6/22/14
5/25/14
4/27/14
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index by Income

7. 80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
201420122010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986
Axis Title
CCI yearly average
Re-election rate
Consumer Comfort and House Re-election Rate
Correlation: .74

8. 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Party ID excluding independents
Party Identification and Ideology:
Annual Average Correlation, 1981-2016
ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

9. So, let’s have an election
Question 1: Who shows up?

10. 31%
24%
62%
16%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 2016
Liberal Very liberal
Democratic Primaries: % Liberals
Exit polls

11. 38%
32%
76%
22%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1976 1980 1988 1992 1996 2000 2008 2012 2016
Conservative Very conservative
Republican Primaries: % Conservatives
Exit polls

12. 47%
32%
51%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1976 1980 1988 1992 2000 2008 2016
Moderate (D) Moderate (R)
Dem and Rep Primaries: % Moderates
Exit polls

13. 42%
51%
58%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic Party Republican Party
Men Women
Gender by Political Party
2016 exit polls

14. 61%
90%
39%
10%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic Party Republican Party
Whites Nonwhites NET Blacks Hispanics
Race by Political Party
2016 exit polls

15. 49%
58%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 2016
Democratic Primaries: % Women
Exit polls

16. 10%
25%
2%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 2016
Blacks Hispanics
Democratic Primaries: % Blacks, Hispanics
Exit polls

17. 25%
16%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1976 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 2016
Age 18-29
Democratic Primaries: Age 18-29
Exit polls

18. 62%
50% 48%
71%
78%
62%
37%
49% 50%
28%
21%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Women Men Whites Nonwhites
NET
Blacks Hispanics
Clinton Sanders
Democratic Primary Vote by Groups
2016 exit polls

19. 28%
50%
65%
72%71%
49%
33%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-29
(17%)
30-44
(23%)
45-64
(40%)
65+
(21%)
Clinton Sanders
Democratic Primary Vote by Age
2016 exit polls

20. 30%
28% 27%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Right
experience
Cares about
people like me
Honest/
trustworthy
Can win
in Nov.
Democratic Primary: Attributes
2016 exit polls

21. 87%
42%
26%
81%
12%
56%
73%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Right
experience
(30%)
Cares about
people like me
(28%)
Honest/
trustworthy
(27%)
Can win
in Nov.
(13%)
Clinton Sanders
Dem. Primary Vote by Attribute
2016 exit polls

22. 54%
30%
12%
84%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Continue
Obama's
policies
More
liberal
Less
liberal
Econ. sys.
favors
wealthy
Fair to
most
Democratic Primary: Issues
2016 exit polls

23. 73%
32%
45%
57%
72%
27%
67%
49%
42%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Continue
Obama's
policies
(54%)
More
liberal
(30%)
Less
liberal
(12%)
Econ. sys.
favors
wealthy
(84%)
Fair
to most
(14%)
Clinton Sanders
Dem. Primary Vote by Issues
2016 exit polls

24. 81%
15%
40% 39%
45%
11%
40%
52%
66%
34%
54%
7%
Polt.
experience
Outsider Econ:
v. worried
Trade
creates
jobs
Trade
costs
jobs
No effect
Democratic primary voters Republican primary voters
Dem-Rep Issue Comparisons
2016 exit polls

25. 68%
27%
41%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ban non-U.S.
Muslims
Oppose
a ban
Deport undoc.
immigrants
Path to
legal status
Republican Primaries: Issues
2016 exit polls

26. 35%
47%
36%
43% 41%
38%
43%
26% 27%
42%
23%
14%
34%
19%18%
10%
7%
14%
25%
10%
20%
College
grad
(51%)
Non-
grad
(49%)
Very
cons.
(33%)
Smwt
cons.
(42%)
Mod.
(22%)
Evang.
(55%)
Not
evang.
(45%)
Trump Cruz Kasich
Rep. Primary Vote: Groups
2016 exit polls

27. 68%
8%
50% 49%
53%
18%
36%
28% 28% 30%
5%
26%
8% 9% 7%
Outsider
(52%)
Experience
(40%)
Angry
(40%)
Ban
Muslims
(68%)
Deport undoc.
Immigrants
(41%)
Trump Cruz Kasich
Rep. Primary Vote: Issues
2016 exit polls

28. 58%
39%
23%
26%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Divisive Energizing Definitely Probably No
Rep. Primary Impacts
2016 exit polls
Vote for Trump in November –
among non-Trump supporters

29. Trumpismo

30. The Roots of Trumpismo

31. The Roots of Trumpismo
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against ”others”
Valuing authority
Populism
What factors best explain Trump’s support?

32. Economic Discontent?

33. Valuing Traditional Authority?

34. Populism?

35. Pushback Against “Others”

36. Modeling Trumpismo: Primaries
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against
”others”
Valuing
authority
Populism
Trump
Support vs.
GOP

37. Modeling Trumpismo: Primaries
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against
”others”
Valuing
authority
Populism
Trump
Support vs.
GOP

38. Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against
”others”
Valuing
authority
Populism
Trump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse
under Obama

39. Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against
”others”
Valuing
authority
Populism
Trump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse
under Obama

40. Modeling Trumpismo: General Election
Economic
discontent
Pushback
against
”others”
Valuing
authority
Populism
Trump
Support vs.
Clinton
Better/worse
under Obama

41. The 2016 Elections:
Exit Polls and Trumpismo
Thank you!