Slides accompanying a talk at Intelligence Community Center of Academic Excellence at the University of Central Florida (UCF), March 2015. Conference theme was "Cyber Security and the Internet," and I spoke on some foreseeable technological, business and policy changes that we can expect to see over the next decade through 2025.

1. www.ShepherdsPi.com

2. “What technologies
will be required
over the next 10 years
to protect U.S. interests?”
An Exercise in Prediction
What if we had asked that question,
15 years ago?

3. “Asymmetric adversary” = an information challenge
(i.e. = intel hard target)
Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods for new targets
- Order of battle
- State-to-state analysis
- “Kremlinological” approaches
- Staid, “authoritative Core Knowledge” repositories
Challenges of IT during wartime
- Stress on systems infrastructure of 2 wars (3?)
- Stress on software (link-analysis, SNA, “search”)
- Stress on collection capacity (sensor grids, Internet)
- Stress on integrity of systems & comms (“cybersecurity”)
- Stress on analysts’ – and technologists’ – imagination
Some IC Surprises Post-9/11

4. Pace of Technology Change continued along Moore’s Law
Lines of Business disrupted by Internet and related tech
- Communications biz ( -> mobile, transnational, price drops)
- PC biz (laptops, tablets, smartphones)
- Music biz (iTunes, streaming)
- Media biz (near-death print, narrowcasting, ad revolution)
Increasing Role of USG in shaping/governing Internet policy
Private Sector Surprises Post-9/11

5. • Technological Change
• Difficulties in Supporting USG
• Globalization
Future Business Challenges

6. New Innovation, New Opportunities

7. Natural User
Interfaces
Social
Media
Augmented
Reality
Big Data
Machine
Learning
Collaboration Cloud & Services
Cyber
Security
Mobility

8. Ambient Computing
Machine Learning
Two core themes
of advanced R&D
Two core themes
of advanced R&D

9. The next paradigm shift: Ambient Computing

10. Important Implications of these two:
Machine learning is the ability for computers to learn
automatically from data to improve their future
performance continually.
Ambient computing refers to having computing devices,
embedded all around in the environment, that can
understand people’s intent and operate on their behalf.

11. Machine learning
Ambient computing
Consumer play from these waves:
An era where we move beyond the
personal computer to a world where
computing all around us becomes
more personal.
Government relevance of these waves:
• Unique and insanely powerful mission applications
• Government workforce and workplace transformed
by the Consumer transformation

12. Government missed 3 recent paradigm shifts…
badly.
1980 1990 2000 2010

13. Imagine if the WWII War Department had refused to
use telephones because of a Security argument citing
“Person-in-the-middle” re switchboards, or “Endpoint
vulnerability” re Party-lines?

14. Source: ComScore Reports, March 2014
Globalization

15. • Technological Change
• Difficulties in Supporting USG
• Globalization
Policy Challenges

17. Company data sources; Kleiner-Perkins research
Big Data is being used to
solve problems…

18. Policy
From three facets
1 2 3
Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith

19. Legal
Pace of technological
change outpaces
regulatory expertise
1 2 3
Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith

20. Defense Science Board 2015 Summer Study on Autonomy
…identify the science, engineering, and policy problems
that must be solved to permit greater operational use of
autonomy across all war-fighting domains…
…exploration of the bounds – both technological and
social – that limit the use of autonomy across a wide range of
military operations….”

25. Five Agreed-upon Principles, which
as a set are consistent with established
global norms of free expression and
privacy
Principles are designed to ensure that
governments’ law-enforcement and
intelligence efforts are:
• Rule-bound
• Narrowly tailored
• Transparent
• Subject to oversight

31. Brad Smith, December 8, 2013 press release

32. We’ll be watching as
technologies,
cultures,
governments
collide…