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CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING
FRAMEWORK AND USAGE EXAMPLES
Agile Practice
23.12.2015
www.luxoft.com
Maksim Gaponov – Agile/Lean Coach
Experience
10+ years in IT. Developer background and management experience as a team
lead, project manager, product manager and CTO. Worked both in large
companies and smaller start-ups. Over 7 years ofAgile experience, Maksim is an
seasoned coach, trainer and speaker at various conferences, including AgileDays.
Certificates
§ Member of Scrum Alliance, Certified Scrum ProductOwner
§ Member of International Consortiumfor Agile (ICAgile), ICAgile Certified
Professional, ICP-Business Value Analysis, ICP-Agile Coaching, ICAgile
accredited trainer
§ Member of Scrum.org, Professional Scrum Master (PSM I)
www.luxoft.com
CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING
FRAMEWORK
www.luxoft.com
What is sense-making?
“Sense-making is how do we
make sense of the world so we
can act in it.
If you can't draw a framework
on the back off a table napkin
from memory it has little utility
for sense-making”
Dave Snowden
www.luxoft.com
Let’s describe the current state of things fistrly
www.luxoft.com
Complex Adaptive Systems
w Understanding through constraints:
- Order: fully constrained; predictable &
repeatable outcomes
- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to
create or sustain
- Complex: system partially constrains
behaviour, but behaviour modifies
constraint
w The inherent uncertainty of a complex
systems means we have to navigate a fitness
landscape of possibilities
www.luxoft.com
Let’s take away and map ordered ones
w Understanding through constraints:
- Order: fully constrained; predictable &
repeatable outcomes
- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to
create or sustain
- Complex: system partially constrains
behaviour, but behaviour modifies
constraint
w The inherent uncertainty of a complex
systems means we have to navigate a fitness
landscape of possibilities
www.luxoft.com
Now let’s take away the chaotic ones
w Understanding through constraints:
- Order: fully constrained; predictable &
repeatable outcomes
- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to
create or sustain
- Complex: system partially constrains
behaviour, but behaviour modifies
constraint
w The inherent uncertainty of a complex
systems means we have to navigate a fitness
landscape of possibilities
www.luxoft.com
Finally let’s take away the ones falling into complex description
w Understanding through constraints:
- Order: fully constrained; predictable &
repeatable outcomes
- Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to
create or sustain
- Complex: system partially constrains
behaviour, but behaviour modifies
constraint
w The inherent uncertainty of a complex
systems means we have to navigate a fitness
landscape of possibilities
www.luxoft.com
We’re spending most of our time in Complex domain
w Highly sensitiveto small changes (weak
signals too easily dismissed)
w Granularity, gradient & enabling
constraints
w Proximity & connectivityare key
w Shift from fail-safe design to multiple
contradictorysafe-to-fail experiments to
avoid prematureconvergence
w Avoid confusing correlation with
causation or simulationwith prediction
www.luxoft.com
Obvious domain
Nature
Known knowns
Familiar, certain, well worn
pathways
Constraints self-evident to all
Stable within universal
constraints
Self evident solutions
Response
Sense-Categorize-
Respond
Ensure sound process in place
Monitor for noncompliance &
deviance
Test for complacency
Protect some pet mavericks
Preparation
Watch for outliers
Usable process
Right support people for key
staff
Automate, but no automata
Anonymous appeal/whistle
blowers
www.luxoft.com
Complicated domain
Nature
Known unknowns
Ordered, predictable,
forecastable
Constraints evident and
enforceable
Stable within constraints
Evidence susceptible of
analysis
Response
Sense-Analyze-Respond
Determine experts or process
to resolve
Manage & enforce process
Monitor effectiveness of
constraints
Focus on exploitation not
exploration
Preparation
Right people & process,
right time
Process engineering with
feedback
Diversity of experts in network
Sound Analytical practice
Stand aside but stay in touch
www.luxoft.com
Chaotic domain
Nature
Unknowable unknowns
Temporary state - no time
No evidence of any constraint
High turbulence no patterns
Old certainties no longer apply
Response
Act-Sense-Respond
Speed of authoritative response
vital
Follow and enforce heuristics
Focus on constraints not
solution
Use the opportunity to
innovate
Preparation
Establishheuristics &
Parables
Human sensor networks
Crews as crisis management
teams
Simulation games for key
managers
Multi-perspective dissent
feedback
www.luxoft.com
Complex domain
Nature
Unknown unknowns
Messily coherent, patterns
discernible
Partial changing constraints
Flux within stabilities
Evidence supports
contradiction
Response
Probe-Sense-Respond
Monitor safe-to fail
experiments
All contradiction within
heuristics
Flex constraints to manage
emergence
Agility key to
amplification/dampening
Preparation
Create time and space for
reflection
Human sensor networks
operational
Social network stimulation &
the like to create networks
Scenario planning (inc. micro)
Build and monitor ‘requisite
diversity’
www.luxoft.com
Making sense of the world to act in it
There are three basic types of system: ordered,
complex and chaotic.
Complex systems have propensities and
dispositions but no linear material cause
In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ &
complicated and the fifth domain) disorder.
The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is
shown as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising
from complacency.
www.luxoft.com
SPLITTING USER STORIES
www.luxoft.com
Using Cynefin for User Story splitting
w Obvious – Just build it. Or, if it’s too big, find all
the stories, and do the most valuable ones first.
w Complicated – Find all the stories, and do the
most valuable and/or most risky ones first.
w Complex – Don’t try to find all the stories. Find
one or two that will provide some value and
teach you something about the problem and
solution, build those and use what you learn to
find the rest.
w Chaotic – Put out the fire; splitting stories
probably isn’t important right now.
w Disordered – Figure out which domain you’re in
before splitting so you don’t take the wrong
approach. Richard Lawrence, http://www.agileforall.com/2014/08/cynefin-and-story-splitting/
www.luxoft.com
RETROSPECTIVES
www.luxoft.com
Using Cynefin on Retrospectives
w Obvious – just implement these
improvements, add them to working
agreements
w Complicated – find experts in your
environment or internal/external consultants,
ask them to help you
w Complex – brainstorm a set of small and
time-bound experiments, find a way to
measure outcomes, implement them
w Chaotic – distribute knowledge and wait
some time until the issue transitions into a
complex domain
w Disordered – brake these down until they
start falling into one of domains
www.luxoft.com
COLLABORATION WITH COMPANY
ENVIRONMENT
www.luxoft.com
Interventions in the complex domain
w Each intervention should be
- coherent
- safe-to-fail
- Finely grained, tangible
w Overall the portfolio should contain
- some that are oblique in nature
- include “naive” approaches
- a few high risk/high return options
w Contradictions are good!
www.luxoft.com
Upcoming Agile Practice webinars
Metrics that bring value
January 14, 2016
Svetlana Mukhina
User Story Canvas
January 26, 2016
Maksim Gaponov
REGISTER REGISTER

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Cynefin sensemaking framework and usage examples

  • 1. www.luxoft.com CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK AND USAGE EXAMPLES Agile Practice 23.12.2015
  • 2. www.luxoft.com Maksim Gaponov – Agile/Lean Coach Experience 10+ years in IT. Developer background and management experience as a team lead, project manager, product manager and CTO. Worked both in large companies and smaller start-ups. Over 7 years ofAgile experience, Maksim is an seasoned coach, trainer and speaker at various conferences, including AgileDays. Certificates § Member of Scrum Alliance, Certified Scrum ProductOwner § Member of International Consortiumfor Agile (ICAgile), ICAgile Certified Professional, ICP-Business Value Analysis, ICP-Agile Coaching, ICAgile accredited trainer § Member of Scrum.org, Professional Scrum Master (PSM I)
  • 4. www.luxoft.com What is sense-making? “Sense-making is how do we make sense of the world so we can act in it. If you can't draw a framework on the back off a table napkin from memory it has little utility for sense-making” Dave Snowden
  • 5. www.luxoft.com Let’s describe the current state of things fistrly
  • 6. www.luxoft.com Complex Adaptive Systems w Understanding through constraints: - Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes - Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain - Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities
  • 7. www.luxoft.com Let’s take away and map ordered ones w Understanding through constraints: - Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes - Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain - Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities
  • 8. www.luxoft.com Now let’s take away the chaotic ones w Understanding through constraints: - Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes - Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain - Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities
  • 9. www.luxoft.com Finally let’s take away the ones falling into complex description w Understanding through constraints: - Order: fully constrained; predictable & repeatable outcomes - Chaos: random, unconstrained, difficult to create or sustain - Complex: system partially constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint w The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities
  • 10. www.luxoft.com We’re spending most of our time in Complex domain w Highly sensitiveto small changes (weak signals too easily dismissed) w Granularity, gradient & enabling constraints w Proximity & connectivityare key w Shift from fail-safe design to multiple contradictorysafe-to-fail experiments to avoid prematureconvergence w Avoid confusing correlation with causation or simulationwith prediction
  • 11. www.luxoft.com Obvious domain Nature Known knowns Familiar, certain, well worn pathways Constraints self-evident to all Stable within universal constraints Self evident solutions Response Sense-Categorize- Respond Ensure sound process in place Monitor for noncompliance & deviance Test for complacency Protect some pet mavericks Preparation Watch for outliers Usable process Right support people for key staff Automate, but no automata Anonymous appeal/whistle blowers
  • 12. www.luxoft.com Complicated domain Nature Known unknowns Ordered, predictable, forecastable Constraints evident and enforceable Stable within constraints Evidence susceptible of analysis Response Sense-Analyze-Respond Determine experts or process to resolve Manage & enforce process Monitor effectiveness of constraints Focus on exploitation not exploration Preparation Right people & process, right time Process engineering with feedback Diversity of experts in network Sound Analytical practice Stand aside but stay in touch
  • 13. www.luxoft.com Chaotic domain Nature Unknowable unknowns Temporary state - no time No evidence of any constraint High turbulence no patterns Old certainties no longer apply Response Act-Sense-Respond Speed of authoritative response vital Follow and enforce heuristics Focus on constraints not solution Use the opportunity to innovate Preparation Establishheuristics & Parables Human sensor networks Crews as crisis management teams Simulation games for key managers Multi-perspective dissent feedback
  • 14. www.luxoft.com Complex domain Nature Unknown unknowns Messily coherent, patterns discernible Partial changing constraints Flux within stabilities Evidence supports contradiction Response Probe-Sense-Respond Monitor safe-to fail experiments All contradiction within heuristics Flex constraints to manage emergence Agility key to amplification/dampening Preparation Create time and space for reflection Human sensor networks operational Social network stimulation & the like to create networks Scenario planning (inc. micro) Build and monitor ‘requisite diversity’
  • 15. www.luxoft.com Making sense of the world to act in it There are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic. Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder. The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is shown as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.
  • 17. www.luxoft.com Using Cynefin for User Story splitting w Obvious – Just build it. Or, if it’s too big, find all the stories, and do the most valuable ones first. w Complicated – Find all the stories, and do the most valuable and/or most risky ones first. w Complex – Don’t try to find all the stories. Find one or two that will provide some value and teach you something about the problem and solution, build those and use what you learn to find the rest. w Chaotic – Put out the fire; splitting stories probably isn’t important right now. w Disordered – Figure out which domain you’re in before splitting so you don’t take the wrong approach. Richard Lawrence, http://www.agileforall.com/2014/08/cynefin-and-story-splitting/
  • 19. www.luxoft.com Using Cynefin on Retrospectives w Obvious – just implement these improvements, add them to working agreements w Complicated – find experts in your environment or internal/external consultants, ask them to help you w Complex – brainstorm a set of small and time-bound experiments, find a way to measure outcomes, implement them w Chaotic – distribute knowledge and wait some time until the issue transitions into a complex domain w Disordered – brake these down until they start falling into one of domains
  • 21. www.luxoft.com Interventions in the complex domain w Each intervention should be - coherent - safe-to-fail - Finely grained, tangible w Overall the portfolio should contain - some that are oblique in nature - include “naive” approaches - a few high risk/high return options w Contradictions are good!
  • 22. www.luxoft.com Upcoming Agile Practice webinars Metrics that bring value January 14, 2016 Svetlana Mukhina User Story Canvas January 26, 2016 Maksim Gaponov REGISTER REGISTER