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1. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
VOLUME: 09 ISSUE: 11
NOVEMBER 2018
Foreign Remittances in 2018
India
79.5
Pakistan
20.9
Bangladesh
15.9
Nepal
8.2
Sri Lanka
7.6
Afghanistan
0.4
Bhutan
0.0
Maldives
0.0

3. Contents
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
VOLUME: 09 ISSUE: 11
NOVEMBER 2018
MTBiz
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Design & Printing:
Preview
Article of the month 02
National News
The Central Bank 06
Business & Economy 08
MTB News & Events 12
Industry Appointments 19
International
Economic Forecast 21
Wells Fargo Monthly Outlook 23
Financial Glossary 24
Foreign Remittances in 2018
India
79.5
Pakistan
20.9
Bangladesh
15.9
Nepal
8.2
Sri Lanka
7.6
Afghanistan
0.4
Bhutan
0.0
Maldives
0.0

4. 02 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries
(LMICs) are projected to accelerate by 10.8 percent in 2018, to
reach USD 528 billion, a new record. This follows robust
growth of 7.8 percent in 2017. Remittances are a major source
of foreign exchange earnings in many LMICs, and continue to
be more than three times the size of official development
assistance (ODA) (Figure 1.1). With new Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) definitions
including peace and security expenditures and in-donor
refugee costs as ODA, the actual proportion of foreign
currency ODA available to LMICs may decrease. Excluding
China, remittance flows are also significantly larger than
foreign direct investment (FDI) in LMICs.
The projected growth of remittance flows in 2018 is stronger than expectations set out seven months earlier in the
Migration and Development Brief 29 (World Bank 2018a). This is driven by recent economic developments: higher
growth in the United States and a rebound in remittances outflows from some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries and the Russian Federation.
Regionally, the Europe and Central Asia region is projected to have a remittance growth of 20 percent in 2018, owing
to continued recovery in the Russian economy. Remittances to East Asia and the Pacific are projected to increase by
6.6 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean registered an estimated growth of 9.3 percent, led by Mexico and
Central American countries. Remittances to South Asia will rise by an estimated 13.5 percent, with remittances to
both India and Bangladesh rising by double digits. The growth rate of remittances to the Middle East and North Africa
is estimated at 9.1 percent, led by Egypt. Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to increase by 9.8 percent.
In 2018, the top remittance-receiving countries – in dollar terms – are projected to be India, China, the Philippines,
Mexico, Egypt, and Nigeria (Figure 1.2). As a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the top recipients are smaller
countries: the Kyrgyz Republic, Tonga, Tajikistan, Nepal, and Haiti. Remittance outflows from Russia are more
correlated with oil prices than are those from Saudi Arabia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, while remittance outflows
show a downward trend, surging oil prices up to October 2018 are likely to have moderated the pace of decline.
Furthermore, overall outflows from the GCC would remain buoyant since the United Arab Emirates, the other major
regional remittance source, reported a 13 percent growth in remittance outflows for the first half of 2018.
Foreign Remittances in 2018
$689 BN
REMITTANCES WORLDWIDE
IN 2018
$528 BN
REMITTANCES TO DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES IN 2018
$
$
Sources: World Bank staff estimates: World Development Indicators.
(US$ billion)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
FDI
ODA
Remittances
Private debt & portfolio equity
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018e2018f
FIGURE 1.1 Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries Are
Larger Than Officail Develppment Assistance and More Stable than Private
Capital Flows, 1990-2019
FIGURE 1.2 Top Remittance Receivers in 2018
(US$ billion, 2018) (Percentage of GDP, 2018)
Tajikistan
Tonga
Nepal
Yem
en,Rep.
Gam
bia,The
M
oldova
Honduras
W
estBank
and
Gaza
Haiti
KyrgyzRepubilc
35.9 35.1
32.2
30.1
26.5
24.2
21.3 20.5 20.5 19.6
IndiaChinaM
exico
Nigeria
Pakistan
Ukraine
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Philippnies
Egypt,
Arab
Rep.
79.5
67.4
33.7 33.7
25.7 25.1
20.9 16.5 15.9 15.9
Sources: International Monetary Fund; World Development Indicators; world Bank staff
estimates.

5. 03 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Outlook for Remittances, 2019–20
Global growth is moderating as manufacturing activity and trade decelerate. Growth in high-income economies has
been diverging: economic activity in the United States remains solid, but growth in the euro area has been weaker
(IMF 2018; World Bank 2018b). Several low- and middle-income countries have experienced substantial financial
stress amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. This has included sharp capital outflows and currency depreciations, notably
in Argentina and Turkey. While oil prices rose up to October 2018, they have since declined. Amid this two-speed
global growth pattern, remittances to LMICs are expected to grow at about 4 percent in 2019, to USD 549 billion.
Downside risks dominate: risks of oil price declines, policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, increased restrictions on
trade, and a slowdown in global growth may retard remittances. Moreover, no solutions are yet in sight for the
difficulties posed by the de-risking practices of correspondent banks.
Remittances to South Asia Grew in 2018
Remittances to South Asia are projected to increase by 13.5
percent in 2018, a faster pace than the 5.7 percent growth
seen in 2017. The upsurge is driven by stronger economic
conditions in high-income economies (particularly the
United States) and an increase in oil prices up to October
2018, which had a positive impact on remittance outflows
from some GCC countries (such as the United Arab Emirates,
which reported 13 percent growth in outflows in the first
half of 2018). In India, remittances are projected to grow by
15.2 percent in 2018 to USD 79.5 billion. A flooding disaster
in the southern Indian state of Kerala is likely to have
boosted remittances, as migrants sent financial help to
families back home. In Pakistan, remittance growth is
projected to remain moderate in 2018 (6.2 percent) due to significant declines in inflows from Saudi Arabia (the
largest remittance source). In Bangladesh, remittances are showing a brisk uptick in 2018 (17.9 percent), and Sri Lanka
is likely to witness remittance growth of 5.4 percent in 2018.
For 2019, it is projected that remittances to the region will
slow to 4.3 percent due to a moderation of growth in
high-income economies and slower migration to the GCC
countries.
Remittance costs: South Asia had the lowest average
remittance costs of any world region (at 5.4 percent) in the
third quarter of 2018. But this is somewhat higher than the
5.2 percent costs seen in the previous quarter and a reversal
of the steady declines seen since the second quarter of
2017. Clearly there is no room for complacency in attempts
to achieve the SDGs’ targets for reducing remittance costs.
Some of the lowest-cost corridors, originating in the GCC
and Singapore, had costs below the SDG target of 3 percent owing to high volumes, competitive markets, and
deployment of technology. But costs are well over 10 percent in the highest-cost corridors due to lower competition
and regulatory concerns. Banking regulations (related to AML/CFT) raise the risk profile of remittance service
providers and thereby increase costs for countries such as Afghanistan.
Migration trends. The region saw a fall in migrant worker deployments due to lower demand from the GCC, especially
Saudi Arabia. In India, the number of low-skilled emigrants seeking mandatory clearance for emigration dropped by
12 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 (0.25 million) compared with the same period in 2017 (0.29 million).39
In Pakistan also, the number of workers registered for overseas employment dropped by 41 percent (0.83 million in
2016 to 0.5 million in 2017). The pace of migrant worker deployments from Bangladesh for the first three quarters of
2018 slowed by 25 percent (0.55 million, compared with 0.73 million in the same period in the previous year). In
Nepal, migrant labor permits dropped from 0.40 million in FY 2015/16 to 0.38 million in FY 2016/17.
India
Pakistan
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Afghanistan
Bhutan
M
aldives
20.9
79.5
15.9
8.2 7.6
0.4 0.0 0.0
Nepal
Sri Lanka
India
Bhutan
Afghanistan
M
aldives
Pakistan
30.1
6.9
8.1
5.6
2.8 1.9 1.8 0.1
B
angladesh
B
angladesh
FIGURE 1.3 Remittance Inflows to south Asia Grew in 2018
Sources: IMF; World Development Indicators; World Bank staff estimates.
(US$ billion, 2018) (Precentage of GDP, 2018)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Third Quatter 2017
Third Quatter 2018
5 Lowest Cost Corridors
Source: World Bank staff estimates using the Prmittance Prices Worldwide Database.
5 Highest Cost Corridors
(Percent)
FIGURE 1.4 The Costs of Sending Remittances to South Asia Varied Widely
across Corridors
India
to
Nepal
Singapore
to
India
Kuwait
to
Pakistan
Bahrain
to
Pakistan
G
erm
any
to
Afghanistan
Singapore
to
Pakistan
Pakistan
to
Afghanistan
Japan
to
India
Thailand
to
India
United
Arab
Em
irates
to
Bangladesh

6. 04 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Bangladesh Remittance inflow
Bangladesh is the ninth highest recipient of remittances
this year with USD 15.9 billion and in South Asia it ranks
third after India (USD 79.5b) and Pakistan (USD 20.9b),
the World Bank said in its latest Migration and
Development Brief. Bangladesh experienced strong
upticks of 17.9 percent in 2018, the bank said.
The World Bank said Bangladesh, after a steep decline
in 2016 (-11.5 percent), remittances were flat in 2017,
but remittances are showing a brisk uptick in 2018 (17.9
percent). In 2018, the top remittance-receiving
countries are projected to be India (USD 79.5 billion),
followed by China (USD 67 billion), Mexico and the
Philippines (USD 34 billion each) and Egypt (USD 26
billion), according to the global lender.
The Bank estimates that officially-recorded remittances
to developing countries will increase by 10.8 percent to
reach USD 528 billion in 2018. This new record level
follows a robust growth of 7.8 percent in 2017.
Global remittances, which include flows to high-income
countries, are projected to grow by 10.3 percent to USD
689 billion, it said. The reports also projected that
remittances to South Asia will increase by 13.5 percent
to USD 132 billion in 2018, a stronger pace than the 5.7
percent growth seen in 2017.
Bangladeshi expatriates living in the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia (KSA) sent over 17 per cent, or USD 2,591.58
million of the total inflow of remittance USD 14,978.86
million in the outgoing fiscal 2017-18 (FY18), according
to BSS.
According to available data of the central bank,
Bangladesh received USD 3,345.23 million remittance
from the KSA in 2014-15 fiscal, USD 2,955.55 million in
2015-16 fiscal and USD 2,267.22 million in 2016-17 fiscal.
In FY18, Saudi Arabia is followed by the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) as NRBs residing in the gulf country
remitted USD 2.428.06 million.
Both the countries in the Middle-East constantly
maintain their highest position in sending remittance
by Bangladesh expatriates. As per the central bank
data, Bangladesh received USD 2093.54 million from
the UAE in the FY17 and USD 2429.96 million in FY18.
The data showed, Bangladesh received USD 1,997.49
million remittance from the USA in FY18 while USD
1,199.70 million from Kuwait.
In the same period, Bangladesh received remittances of
USD 1,107.21 million from Malaysia, USD 1,105.55
million from the UK, USD 958.19 million from Oman,
USD 844.06 million from Qatar, USD 662.22 million
from Italy, USD 541.62 million from Bahrain, USD
330.16 million from Singapore, USD 153.15 million from
South Africa and USD 134.40 million from France.
1 K.S.A. 2267.22
2 U.A.E. 2093.54
3 U.S.A. 1688.86
4 Malaysia 1103.62
5 Kuwait 1033.31
6 Oman 897.71
7 U.K. 808.16
8 Qatar 576.02
9 Italy 510.78
10 Bahrain 437.14
11 Singapore 300.99
12 France 104.80
13 Lebanon 103.86
14 jordan 91.02
15 South Africa 85.12
16 S. Korea 80.65
17 Spain 75.83
18 Iraq 68.90
19 Australia 52.03
20 Canada 49.54
21 Mauritius 42.21
22 Maldives 40.30
23 Germany 31.75
24 Japan 22.92
25 Greece 22.53
26 Hong kong 18.98
SAR of China
27 Brunei 18.28
28 China 12.82
29 Sweden 9.25
30 Cyprus 7.43
31 Other countries 113.88
Total 12769.45
CountryS1.
No.
2016-2017
1 K.S.A. 2591.58
2 U.A.E. 2429.96
3 U.S.A. 1997.95
4 Kuwait 1199.70
5 Malaysia 1107.21
6 U.K. 1106.01
7 Oman 958.19
8 Qatar 844.06
9 Italy 662.22
10 Bahrain 541.62
11 Singapore 330.16
12 South Africa 153.15
13 France 134.40
14 Lebanon 115.72
15 Jordan 111.16
16 S. Korea 96.29
17 Canada 57.56
18 Australia 56.56
19 Iraq 52.21
20 Mauritius 46.73
21 Germany 40.20
22 Spain 39.94
23 Greece 39.43
24 Japan 31.44
25 Maldives 25.46
26 Brunei 22.54
27 Hong kong 21.25
SAR of China
28 Sweden 11.94
29 Cyprus 10.43
30 China People’s 9.37
Republic
31 Other countries 137.25
Total 14981.69
CountryS1.
No.
2016-2017
1 K.S.A 242.83 268.71 215.28 244.21 220.79
2 U.A.E 231.65 212.58 162.69 193.53 183.53
3 U.S.A 157.21 164.35 124.76 140.38 125.65
4 Kuwait 107.26 113.52 96.35 103.70 108.44
5 Malaysia 93.56 110.79 89.61 93.10 88.54
6 Qatar 87.42 86.76 77.21 80.67 74.52
7 U.K. 77.83 97.26 79.83 82.60 81.91
8 Oman 76.21 111.83 73.44 75.65 73.15
9 Italy 59.89 61.54 67.38 62.63 60.43
10 Bahrain 44.91 44.83 33.21 35.36 33.97
11 Singapore 29.83 31.26 28.10 25.34 25.60
12 South Africa 13.85 10.97 6.60 10.94 11.38
13 Frace 12.27 13.38 12.79 12.22 12.52
14 Lebanon 10.36 11.44 9.72 10.58 10.07
15 Jordan 9.28 10.92 9.34 9.61 9.67
16 S.Korea 7.40 7.33 7.58 7.52 8.28
17 Canada 5.38 4.76 3.93 4.79 4.48
18 Libya 4.43 0.23 0.15 0.30 0.27
19 Spain 4.38 3.54 3.83 3.69 4.54
20 Australia 4.29 5.29 3.23 3.69 4.18
21 Mauritius 4.05 4.35 4.19 3.83 3.68
22 Greece 4.03 3.96 3.71 3.35 2.85
23 Germany 3.55 4.08 3.43 5.38 3.71
24 Iraq 3.46 3.84 2.88 3.20 3.11
25 Japan 2.67 3.22 2.63 2.85 3.46
26 Brunei 2.26 2.60 1.87 2.07 1.97
27 Hong Kong
SAR of Chian 1.76 1.82 1.56 1.62 1.36
28 Maldives 1.53 1.36 1.26 1.33 1.18
29 Sweden 1.35 1.27 0.95 1.45 1.67
30 Cyprus 1.03 1.09 0.85 1.02 1.08
31 Others Countries 12.25 12.17 11.30 12.50 12.29
Total 1318.18 1411.05 113966 123911 1178.28
CountryS1.
No.
2016-2017
July August September October November
Wage Earners’Remittance Inflows: Top 30 Countries Received
(USD in million)
Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank
Remittance inflow
$15.9bn this yr
It experienced strong
upticks of 17.9pc

7. 05 MTBiz
ARTICLE OF THE MONTH
Yearly data of Wage earner’s remittance
The total inflow of remittance has also increased by
USD 2,209.41 million or 17.30 percent in FY18. The
country received USD 12,769.45 million remittance in
2016-17 fiscal. In 2015-16 fiscal, the amount was USD
14,931.18 million while the Bangladeshi expatriates
sent USD 15,316.91 million in 2014-15 fiscal.
According to the BB data, the country received USD
1,381.55 million in June, USD 1,504.98 million in May,
USD 1,331.33 million in April, USD 1,299.77 million in
March, USD 1,149.08 million in February, USD 1,379.79
million in January, USD 1,163.82 million in December,
USD 1,214.75 million in November, USD 1162.77 million
in October, USD 856.87 million in September, USD
1,418.58 million in August and USD 1,115.57 million in
July in the outgoing 2017-18 fiscal.
The flow of remittance indicates that it is gradually
increasing and this trend is likely to continue in the
2018-19 fiscal.
The inflow of wage earners remittances crossed USD
5.0 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal
year (FY) due to depreciating mode of the local
currency against the US dollar in the recent months.
The inward remittances rose by 12.17 per cent to USD
5.11 billion during the July-October period of FY
2018-19 from USD 4.55 billion in the same period of the
previous fiscal.
The money sent home by Bangladeshis working abroad
amounted to USD 1.24 billion in October 2018, up by
USD 99.45 million from the previous month's level,
according to the central bank's latest statistics.
In September last, the remittances stood at USD 1.14
billion. It was USD 1.16 billion in October 2017.
Currently, 29 exchange houses are operating across the
globe, setting up 1,215 drawing arrangements abroad,
to expedite the remittance inflow.
Year/Month
Remittances
In million US dollar In billion Taka
2018-2019*
2017-2018
2016-2017
2015-2016
2014-2015
2013-2014
2012-2013
2011-2012
2010-2011
2009-2010
2008-2009
2007-2008
2006-2007
2005-2006
2004-2005
2003-2004
2002-2003
2001-2002
2000-2001
1999-2000
1998-1999
1997-1998
1996-1997
1995-1996
1994-1995
1993-1994
1992-1993
1991-1992
1990-1991
6286.28
14981.69
12769.45
14931.18
15316.91
14228.26
14461.14
12843.43
11650.32
10987.40
9689.26
7914.78
5998.47
4802.41
3848.29
3371.97
3061.97
2501.13
1882.10
1949.32
1705.74
1525.43
1475.42
1217.06
1197.63
1088.72
944.57
849.66
763.91
526.71
1231.56
1010.99
1168.57
1189.93
1105.84
1156.47
1018.82
829.91
760.11
666.77
542.96
413.01
322.76
236.48
198.70
177.29
143.77
101.70
98.07
81.98
69.35
63.00
49.70
48.14
43.55
36.97
32.41
27.26

8. 06 MTBiz
THE CENTRAL BANK
BB relaxes rules on forex forward buy-sale
The central bank has relaxed regulations on forward
sale and purchase of foreign exchange (forex) to bring
dynamism in hedging transactions. Following the
relaxations, non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts
will be facilitated to minimise exchange rate risk in the
market. Besides, customers are allowed to receive their
exchange gains after closing forward deals. Earlier,
exchange gains, if any, on cancellation were not passed
on to customers. Such relaxations will help foreign
contractors or service providers to get an additional
tool for hedging long-term forex risk exposures. Under
the flexibility, forward contracts may be renewed/rolled
over/extended for new delivery period at the prevailing
market rate, provided the authorized dealers (ADs) are
satisfied with documentary evidences that the
customers are unable to carry out the contracts due to
changes in the actual requirements or other valid
exigencies.
Dairy farmers to get loan at 4.0pc interest
Dairy farmers will now get loan at 4.0 per cent interest
rate instead of 5.0 per cent from Bangladesh Bank's
BDT 2.0 billion refinancing scheme. The central bank
announced to lower the interest rate to 4.0 per cent
from 5.0 per cent with effect from November 01, 2018.
In the circular, the BB asked banks and non-bank
financial institutions to disburse loans from the
refinancing fund to raise milk production and artificial
insemination. BB created the fund in 2015. Now the
dairy farmers, individually or jointly, will be able to take
loan worth BDT 40,000 to buy a young female cow
(heifer) and BDT 10,000 to rear it. A dairy farmer will be
able to take maximum BDT 200,000 for buying four
young female calves.
BB approves one more bank
The central bank recently gave the final approval for
one more bank despite opposition from different
corners. The approval for "Community Bank
Bangladesh," owned by Bangladesh Police, came at the
Board meeting of the central bank held at its
headquarters in Dhaka with Governor Fazle Kabir in
chair. Bangladesh Police Welfare Trust, a concern of
Bangladesh Police, earlier applied to Bangladesh Bank
on May 23 for a licence to set up the new bank. The
Board of Bangladesh Bank gave approval of the new
bank. With this new one, the number of scheduled
banks in the country will stand at 59.
BB issues new guidelines for credit risk management
Bangladesh Bank has
issued a set of
guidelines for credit
risk management for
the country's
scheduled banks with
an aim to make the
system more effective and time-befitting. The Banking
Regulations and Policy Department (BRPD) of the
central bank informed about the newly-adopted
"Guidelines on Internal Credit Risk Rating System for
Banks". The new model and guidelines will remain
effective until June 30, 2019, said the BB circular. The
central bank said once the new guidelines are followed
properly, proper persons and organisation will get loans
easily and the volume of the default loans of banks
would be reduced. The restructured guidelines on
credit risk management were issued at a time when the
country's economists are concerned over the rising
trend of the default and non-performing loans in the
banking sector. The circular said the new model of
guidelines has 20 sub-sectors under four main sectors.
NATIONAL NEWS

9. 07 MTBiz
THE CENTRAL BANK
Deposits in school banking accounts rise to Tk 1,428cr
Total deposit in the school banking accounts increased
to BDT 1,428.14 crore as of September 30 this year
from BDT 1,254.23 crore as of September 30 last year.
The number of bank accounts opened by
schoolchildren rose to 16.10 lakh as of September 30
this year from 13.87 lakh as of September 30 last year,
according to the recent Bangladesh Bank data released.
As of September 30, 2018, the amount of
schoolchildren’s deposits in the private commercial
banks stood at Tk 1,196.65 crore, which is 83.79 per
cent of the total deposit amount. The bank accounts of
schoolchildren in the private commercial banks totalled
10.31 lakh, which is 64.04 per cent of the total
accounts, the data showed. A total of 4.46 lakh
accounts were opened in the state-run commercial
banks and BDT 191.15 crore were deposited in the
accounts. The amount is 13.38 per cent of the total
deposit. The BB data showed that 34.60 per cent of
schoolchildren’s accounts were opened with the bank
branches in rural areas while 61.40 per cent in the
branches in urban areas.
Agent banking expands fast
Agent banking, which takes banking services to the
unbanked people, is going from strength to strength,
with both deposit collection and loan disbursement on
the rise. Lenders earlier kept their core focus on
collecting deposits from clients through the new
banking wing but they have recently given the same
importance to loan disbursement. As of September,
loan disbursement through the agent banking channel
was BDT 150 crore, up 9.80 percent from a quarter
earlier. At the same time, deposit collection went up 28
percent to BDT 2,577 crore, according to data from the
central bank. In fiscal 2017-18, farm loan disbursement
stood at BDT 21,394 crore, 37.19 percent of which was
given out through the NGO channel. The central bank
issued the agent banking guideline in 2013 but the
licensees did not start full-fledged operations until
2016. As of September, 18 banks combined have 20.28
lakh accounts, up from 14 percent three months earlier.
GROWTH IN AGENT BANKING
APR-JUN
2018
Deposit (BDT)
Credit (BDT)
Remittance (BDT)
Account
Outlet
Agent
2,012cr
137cr
3,514cr
1,777,400
5,351
3,588
2,577cr
150cr
4,463cr
2,028,864
5,791
3,902
JUL-SEP
2018

10. 08 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
Bank Asia opens digital banking booth for RMG
workers in Gazipur
Bangladesh's efforts
to deepen financial
inclusion took a step
forward as Bank Asia
launched the
country's first-ever
complete banking
services on the premises of a garment factory. The
“RMG Digital Banking Booth” was set up at Echotex Ltd
in Gazipur where garment workers will receive
full-fledged banking services. Echotex is a top
enterprise with facilities for knitting, dyeing, digital and
screen printing, laundry and garmenting. Rumee A
Hossain, chairman of the executive committee of the
board of the private commercial bank, inaugurated the
booth. The service is the first of its kind in the country.
This is a complete banking booth and a branch. Workers
will receive credible and complete service. The bank
said the goal of the banking service is simple: every
garment worker will open a bank account and get easy
and effortless services. The bank said the RMG digital
banking booth will work as a key enabler for achieving
the financial inclusion goals of the government.
Western Marine bags BDT 6.06 billion ship export
orders
Western Marine
Shipyard Limited has
received ship export
orders worth BDT
6.06 billion from
a b r o a d . T h e
Chattogram-based
leading ship-maker
is building 10 ocean-going vessels and boats for
exporting to three different countries. "Norway, United
Arab Emirates (UAE) and India have given orders to our
company for building 10 ships," Sakhawat Hossain,
Managing Director (MD) of Western Marine. Western
Marine is one of the country's largest shipbuilding
companies, which started export of ocean-going vessels
in 2008 after bagging orders from Germany. The
Western Marine MD said they are now building six
ocean-going cargo-ships for Indian Jindal Group, each
with the capacity of 8,000 dead-weight tonnage (DWT).
The price of the six vessels of Indian company is BDT
3.60 billion, the fishing trawler of Norway is BDT 1.60
billion, and the three ships and tankers for UAE is BDT
860 million.
Export earnings grow 17.24pc in first five months of
FY19
Export earnings
from the country's
m e r c h a n d i s e
shipments during
the first five months
of the current fiscal
year (FY) stood at
USD 17.07 billion,
marking a 17.24 per cent growth over the
corresponding period of the last fiscal, according to
official data. The exports fetched USD 14.56 billion
during the July-November period of the FY 2017-18.
The export performance was 12.07 per cent higher
than the target set for this period, data showed. The
single month earnings in November last grew by 11.94
per cent to USD 3.42 billion from USD 3.05 billion in
2017, according to the recent Export Promotion Bureau
(EPB). The November performance also surpassed the
target set for the month by 10.10 per cent. Earnings
from export of readymade garments (RMG) during the
July-November of the current fiscal grew by 18.59 per
cent to USD 14.18 billion from USD 11.96 billion in the
corresponding period of last fiscal. The earnings also
surpassed the target by 11.09 per cent.
Remittance inflow rises by 12pc in first four months of
FY'19
The inflow of wage
earners remittances
crossed USD 5.0
billion in the first
four months of the
current fiscal year
(FY) due to
depreciating mode
of the local currency against the US dollar in the recent
months. The inward remittances rose by 12.17 per cent
to USD 5.11 billion during the July-October period of FY
2018-19 from USD 4.55 billion in the same period of
the previous fiscal. He expected that the existing
upward trend of remittances would continue in the
coming months. "The inflow of remittances normally
increases ahead of the general elections," the central
banker explained. The money sent home by
Bangladeshis working abroad amounted to USD 1.24
billion in October 2018, up by USD 99.45 million from
the previous month's level, according to the central
bank's latest statistics. In September last, the
remittances stood at USD 1.14 billion. It was USD 1.16
billion in October 2017.
NATIONAL NEWS

11. 09 MTBiz
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
NATIONAL NEWS
Unilever to buy 82pc stake of GlaxoSmithKline BD
GSK will sell its 82
per cent stake in
GlaxoSmithKline
Bangladesh Limited
to Unilever for £566
million. The
remaining stakes of
GSK Bangladesh, which is listed on Dhaka Stock
Exchange, are held by institutes, foreigners and local
individuals. The company in a statement said following
the completion of its previously announced strategic
review, GlaxoSmithKline plc (LSE/NYSE: GSK)
announced the divestment of Horlicks and other
consumer healthcare nutrition brands to Unilever plc
("Unilever") and the merger of GSK Consumer
Healthcare Limited ("GSK India") with Hindustan
Unilever Limited ("HUL"). The total consideration is
valued at approximately £3.1 billion based on the
15-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) ended
of HUL shares of INR 1,717. Net proceeds are estimated
to be approximately £2.4 billion on the same basis. In
India, Horlicks and other nutrition products are sold by
GSK India, a public company listed on the National
Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE), in which GSK holds a 72.5 per cent stake.
RMG exporters to enjoy full VAT waiver on four types
of services
The country's
apparel exporters
will enjoy full
waiver of Value
Added Tax (VAT) on
four types of
services including
expenditure on workers' welfare and entertainment,
laboratory test fees, IT-enabled services and rent-a-car
facility. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has
offered the Value Added Tax exemption for
export-oriented apparel makers by issuing a Statutory
Regulatory Order (SRO) on November 29, 2018. Value
Added Tax ranging from 5.0 per cent to 15 per cent was
applicable to those services. It was a long-cherished
demand of the country's apparel exporters associations
including Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and
Exporters Association (BGMEA) and Bangladesh
Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association
(BKMEA). Apparel exporters said they face complexities
in record-keeping as the sector enjoys VAT exemption
on most of the services.
Deloitte starts operation in Bangladesh
M u l ti n a ti o n a l
financial advisory
firm Deloitte has
formally launched
its operations in
Bangladesh to help
local business and
the economy grow
further. With footprints in over 150 countries, the firm
provides wide range of consultancy services to its
client-organisations like financial institutions, energy
companies, telcos and government agencies. Deloitte
representatives in Bangladesh made the
announcement at a press conference at a city hotel.
Managing Partner of Deloitte Bangladesh Nurul Haque
and its board member Joydeep Datta Gupta briefed
newsmen about the firm. Mr. Nurul Haque said the
vibrant economy of Bangladesh is set to grow much
faster in coming days, when domestic corporations will
need more financial advisory services. This is a very
exciting time for Bangladesh to welcome the world's
largest professional services firm, he said. Deloitte
Bangladesh is preparing to help those businesses reach
their goal, he said. Founded in 1845 in the UK, Deloitte
provides the private and government organisations
with various services, including audit, tax, legal,
financial advisory, risk advisory, and consultancy.
BD third among remittance-receiving countries in
South Asia
Bangladesh has been ranked third among
remittance-receiving countries in South Asia with a
cash inflow of USD 15.9 billion this year, according to a
World Bank report. Moreover, the country became the
ninth highest remittance earner in the world in 2018.
Bangladesh experienced strong upticks of 17.9 per cent
in 2018, the bank said. In its latest Migration and
Development Brief, the World Bank said Bangladesh,
after a steep decline in 2016 (-11.5 per cent),
remittances were flat in 2017, but remittances are
showing a brisk uptick in 2018 (17.9 per cent). In 2018,
the top remittance-receiving countries in the world are
projected to be India (USD 79.5 billion), followed by
China (USD 67 billion), Mexico and the Philippines (USD
34 billion each) and Egypt (USD 26 billion), according to
the global lender. The Bank estimates that
officially-recorded remittances to developing countries
will increase by 10.8 per cent to reach USD 528 billion in
2018. This new record level follows a robust growth of
7.8 per cent in 2017.

12. BUSINESS & ECONOMY
10 MTBiz
Bangladesh flower market reaches BDT 1,200cr,
expanding at 10% rate
The growing middle
class, equipped with
disposable income,
along with the rise
of corporate
businesses and
widespread use of
flowers in various programs - have expanded the
flowers and cut foliage business in Bangladesh.
However, cultural changes among the young generation
in celebrating western festivals such Valentine’s Day,
Friendship Day, Mother’s Day and iconic cultural events
like Pohela Boishakh , Pohela Falgun have expedited the
growth of flower business in the country. In addition,
the celebration of National Days such as Ekushey
February, Independence Day and Victory Day has
reached to rural level more than ever before, which
also helped boost the business. According to a recent
Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI)
statistics, the local market of flower and cut foliage has
reached at BDT 1,200 crore per annum and is
witnessing a 10% yearly growth. According to Export
Promotion Bureau (EPB) data, in 2016-17 fiscal year,
Bangladesh exported cut flowers, leaves, trees, plants,
bulbs, roots of USD 86,000, up 10.26%, which was USD
78,000 in the previous year.
RMG exporters bring new hope for rural economy
Garment exporters are
increasingly becoming
interested in setting up
factories in rural areas, giving a
new life to the rural economy
and creating employment prospects for youths. Factories
in rural areas are also helping change the course of the
rural economy by creating new markets for small
businesses and backward linkage sub-sectors.
Entrepreneurs and experts said the expansion of
garment units to rural areas is helping the country
decentralise the creation of new employment as jobs in
the apparel sector are mainly based in a handful of
industrial belts in urban areas. According to industry
insiders, around 100 export-oriented apparel factories
have already been established in rural areas of different
districts. The factory has created jobs for around 1,500
people, and the number of workers will reach 2,500
soon. Some 60 per cent of the workers are female, said
the factory authorities, adding that the manufacturing
unit has the capacity to 3.5 lakh woven items per month.
WB approves $500m to boost livestock, dairy
production
The World Bank (WB)
has approved $500
million to improve
livestock and dairy
production in
Bangladesh under the
project titled ‘The
Livestock and Dairy Development Project’. The lender
granted the loan so that the country can meet growing
demand for egg, meat and milk to improve the
nutritional intake of its citizens. The WB said that the
project will improve agricultural productivity and
market access of 2.0 million smallholder household
farmers and small and medium-scale
agro-entrepreneurs. By stimulating growth and
improving livestock production systems, livestock
farmers in Bangladesh will have better access to
livestock services and practices, said the
Washington-based lending agency. The livestock sector
employs 14 per cent of the total labour force, but more
than 70 per cent of rural households are engaged in
livestock production.
Apparel industry building sustainable businesses
Markets earlier
used to solely
depend on supply
and demand, and
the prices and
profit were
contingent upon these forces. However, the emerging
trends of the global economy are disrupting the
economy in ways where businesses need to adapt to
the increasingly informed consumers, agile digital
competitors, and new customer segments brought by
the connectivity of information technology. The first
industrial revolution used water and steam power to
mechanise production. The second used electric power
to create mass production. The third used electronics
and information technology to automate the
production process. Now the fourth industrial
revolution is building on the third and it is a digital
revolution that synthesises its preceding revolutions. As
Bangladesh aims to progress to a middle-income
country, its stakeholders need to align with the above
trend to sustain its development in the long-term.
Bangladeshi apparel industry is a quintessential part of
the national economy, constituting more than 10
percent of the GDP, 80 percent of earnings from
exports, and well over one-third of the employment.
NATIONAL NEWSNATIONAL NEWS

13. BUSINESS & ECONOMY
11 MTBiz
Coir rope making, a growing industry
Coir rope making is now a flourishing industry at
Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation
(BSCIC) estate at Swarupkathi under Nesarabad upazila
of the district. Strong and thick ropes, made with coir
mixed with different kinds of materials like cotton,
cloth, jute, plastic and nylon, are sent to different places
of the country including Dhaka. Visiting the BSCIC
industrial estate at Miarhat in Swarupkathi a few days
ago, this correspondent found workers busy making
different kinds of coir ropes at 14 factories in the area.
“This industry flourished here during the last three or
four years. Every week around 100 tonnes of coir is
produced in this area and we sell it for BDT 60 to BDT
120 per kg, depending on category of ropes,” said Rubel
Mia, owner of Sonar Bangla Rope Industry. Coir rope
making has created employment opportunity for
around 1200 youths in the area, said Abdul Mazid,
owner of Sonar Bangla Coir Industry.
Auto parts market swells on rising demand
The automotive component market in Bangladesh has
more than doubled in a space of a decade driven by rising
car users, said industry people. Importers bring in engine,
alternator, radiator, air conditioner, suspension, brake
pads, spoiler, rim, tyre, trim package, body components,
among other spare parts needed to serve the booming
automotive market. The market size of automotive
components was about BDT 1,300 crore to BDT 1,400
crore last year with an annual growth rate of 10 to 12
percent in the last one decade, said Mosharraf Hossain
Manik, one of the major importers. The market size was
notmorethanBDT500crore10yearsago,hesaid.Atleast
200 traders import auto spare parts and most of them
have workshops, said Farhad Hossain, another importer.
More than 2,500 traders are involved in the component
business. Hossain, the owner of The Implementers, said
although the sector is growing, no trader has the capacity
to set up plants to make spare parts.

14. 12 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
16TH MTB EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETING (EGM 2018) HELD
The 16th Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of Mutual Trust Bank Limited (MTB) was held on November 01, 2018
at the Samson H. Chowdhury Auditorium, MTB Tower, 111 Kazi Nazrul Islam Avenue, Dhaka 1000.
MTB Chairman, Md. Hedayetullah presided over the meeting. MTB Vice Chairman, Khwaja Nargis Hossain, Founding
Chairman, Syed Manzur Elahi, Directors, Rashed A. Chowdhury, Md. Abdul Malek, Md. Manirul Islam, Independent
Director, Anwarul Amin, Managing Director & CEO, Anis A. Khan, Company Secretary, Malik Muntasir Reza and a large
number of shareholders attended the meeting.
The shareholders of the bank have unanimously approved to issue fresh capital (Equity Shares) in favor of Norfund
and change some of the clauses of the Articles of Association of the bank, in order to cope with the technological
progression, changes in the provisions of laws and to create scope for issuing shares in favor of strategic investor(s).

15. 13 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
MTB AIR LOUNGE INAUGURATED AT
SHAH AMANAT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (SAIA), CHATTOGRAM
MTB inaugurated its 2nd Air Lounge at Shah Amanat International Airport (SAIA), Domestic Terminal, Chattogram,
with a view to providing its customers with greater comfort and convenience when travelling in and out of the port
city. Md. Hedayetullah, Chairman, of the bank inaugurated the Air Lounge on November 17, 2018 at a simple
ceremony held at premises of MTB Air Lounge, SAIA.
Wing Commander ABM Sarwar-E-Zaman, Airport Manager, SAIA, M. A. Rouf, JP, Former Chairman and Director, Md.
Manirul Islam, Director and Anis A. Khan, Managing Director & CEO, MTB, Mahfuz Ahmed, Managing Partner, Falcon
Agency Consortium and other senior Government and bank officials were also present at the inauguration ceremony.
In his address, Wing Commander ABM Sarwar-E-Zaman, Airport Manager, SAIA congratulated MTB on launching this
value-added service, and expressed his satisfaction with the bank’s joining the Government’s efforts to improve
customer service at SAIA, Dhaka. MTB Chairman, Md. Hedayetullah, in his speech, acknowledged the importance of
delivering high quality service in alignment with MTB’s vision (MTB 3V!) to become a world class bank.

16. 14 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
MTB and bKash Limited, the largest mobile financial
service provider in the country, recently signed an
agreement allowing fund transfer by customers from MTB
accounts to bKash accounts and vice versa. The deal also
facilitates bKash customers to withdraw cash from any of
the MTB ATMs across the country as well as MTB credit
cardholders to pay their credit card bills using bKash
account.
Kamal Quadir, Chief Executive Officer, bKash Limited and
Anis A. Khan, Managing Director & CEO, MTB signed the
agreement on behalf of their respective organizations at a
simple ceremony held on November 22, 2018 at the bank’s Corporate Head Office, MTB Centre, 26 Gulshan Avenue,
Dhaka 1212.
Syed Rafiqul Haq, Deputy Managing Director & Chief Business Officer (CBO), Tarek Reaz Khan, Head of SME & Retail
Banking, Mohammad Anwar Hossain, Head of Cards, MTB and Mizanur Rashid, Chief Commercial Officer, Moinuddin
Mohammed Rahgir, Chief Financial Officer and Md. Zafrul Hasan, Head of Enterprise Project Management, bKash
Limited were also present at the event.
MTB INKS DEAL WITH NITOL MOTORS LIMITED (NML)
MTB INKS DEAL WITH BKASH
MTB and Nitol Motors Limited (NML) have recently signed
an agreement at a simple ceremony held on November 18,
2018 at the bank’s Corporate Head Office, MTB Centre, 26
Gulshan Avenue, Dhaka 1212.
Under the agreement, the clients of Nitol Motors Limited
will be able to avail MTB Auto Loans at a low processing fee
to procure brand new passenger vehicles of TATA Motors.
Syed Rafiqul Haq, Deputy Managing Director & Chief
Business Officer (CBO), MTB and Md. Tanbir Shahid Ratan,
CBO, Passenger Car Business Unit, Nitol Motors Limited
(NML) signed the agreement on behalf of their respective
organizations. Anis A. Khan, Managing Director & CEO, Tarek Reaz Khan, Head of SME & Retail Banking, Samia
Chowdhury, Deputy Head, Group Communications, MTB, Mahbub Alam, Head of Sales, Passenger Car Business Unit of
Nitol Motors Ltd. and Sujan Roy, Head, Passenger Vehicle, International Business, Sandeep Chatterjee, Head-Asia,
Passenger Vehicle International Business, Sumanta Bhattacharjee, Country Manager-Bangladesh, Passenger Vehicle
International Business of TATA Motors Ltd., India along with other senior officials from both the organizations were
present at the signing ceremony.
NITOL-NILOY

17. 15 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
MTB has recently organized “School Banking Conference
2018” at Habiganj as the lead bank on October 27, 2018.
Advocate Md. Abu Jahir, Member of Parliament, Habiganj
attended the program as the Chief Guest while Syed
Tariquzzaman, Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank, Sylhet,
Rabiul Alam, Additional Police Super, Habiganj, Abdul
Hasib, Deputy General Manager, Financial Inclusion,
Bangladesh Bank graced the event as special guests. The
main objective of the conference was to build awareness
among the students about the importance of savings and
its contribution to the country’s economy.
The conference was attended by about 500 students along with teachers of 23 schools of the district. Tarek Reaz Khan,
Head of SME & Retail Banking, MTB presided over the program. Among others, Habibul Bashar Sumon, Former
Captain, Bangladesh National Cricket Team, Khandoker Rahimuzzaman, Senior Executive Vice President, Md. Towfiqul
Alam Chowdhury, Head of Retail Business Development, Azam Khan, Group Chief Communications Officer, MTB along
with senior officials from Bangladesh Bank Head Office and MTB, as well as all scheduled banks operating in Habiganj,
dignitaries and leaders of local business associations, representatives from different strata attended the event.
MTB LED SCHOOL BANKING CONFERENCE 2018 AT HABIGANJ
S C
H O O
L

18. 16 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
MTB SCHOOL BANKING CAMPAIGNS
School Name : Rajshahi Bohumukhi Girls’ High School
Venue : Hetem khan (Begum Rokeya Road),
Rajshahi, 6000
Organizer : MTB Rajshahi Branch, 419, Parents
Plaza, Alupatty, Ghoramara, Rajshahi
6100
Date : November 04, 2018
School Name : Tejgaon Sorkari Prathomik Biddaloy
Venue : Tejgaon Industrial Area
Organizer : MTB Tejgaon Branch, MTB Square,
210/A/1, Tejgaon I/A, Tejgaon, Dhaka
1208
Date : October 29, 2018
School Name : Mohakhali Model High School
Venue : Mohakhali Bazar Road, Dhaka 1212
Organizer : MTB Banani Branch, Lintoo Centre,
House- 82, Rd-11 Block-D, Banani,
Dhaka 1213
Date : October 30, 2018
School Name : Kakoli High School and College,
Dhanmondi, Dhaka
Venue : House no. 84, Road no. 11/A, Dhaka
1209
Organizer : MTB Dhanmondi Branch, Plot # 81,
Road # 8/A (New), Green Taj Center,
Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209
Date : October 29, 2018

19. 17 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS
MTB SCHOOL BANKING CAMPAIGNS
School Name : Central Women’s College
Venue : 13/2, Avoy Das Lane, Tikatuli, Dhaka
1203
Organizer : MTB Dilkusha Branch, Hotel Purbani
International Building, 1 Dilkusha C/A,
Dhaka 1000
Date : October 28, 2018
School Name : KPB School & College
Venue : Kadamtala, 28/3, Kadamtala School
Rd, Dhaka 1214
Organizer : MTB Fulbaria Branch, Annexco Tower,
8, Phonix Road,
Dhaka 1000
Date : November 05, 2018

20. 18 MTBiz
MTB NEWS & EVENTS

21. 19 MTBiz
INDUSTRY APPOINTMENTS
NATIONAL NEWS
DCCI elects top brass
Osama Taseer has been
elected President of the
Dhaka Chamber of
Commerce & Industry (DCCI)
for 2019. Osama is the
Chairman of Four Wings Ltd,
an RMG manufacturing
company engaged in the
sector since 1992. He also
served as DCCI’s Senior Vice
President in 2014. He was also a Director of Bangladesh
Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA)
in 2007-08, Secretary General of Dutch Bangladesh Chamber
of Commerce and Industry in 2009-10 and a lifetime member
of The Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh (IEB).
Paintmakers' body gets new top brass
Rupali Chowdhury,
Managing Director of
Berger Paints Bangladesh
Limited, has recently been
elected President of
Bangladesh Paint
Manufacturer's Association
(BPMA) for 2019-2020.
Rupali H. Chowdhury is also
Managing Director at
Jenson & Nicholson Bangladesh Limited. She is also on
the board of Bata Shoe Co. (Bangladesh) Ltd., Berger
Becker Bangladesh and SMC Enterprise Ltd. and
President for Foreign Investors Chamber of Commerce &
Industry.
StanChart gets new country CFO
Standard Chartered
Bangladesh has recently
appointed its country
Chief Financial Officer
(CFO). Md Abdul Kader
Joaddar will be a member
of the bank's country
management team in
Bangladesh. Prior to
joining Standard
Chartered, Joaddar was working as Deputy Managing
Director and CFO of BRAC Bank Limited.
Nihad Kabir reelected MCCI President
Nihad Kabir has been
reelected as President of the
Metropolitan Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
(MCCI), Dhaka for 2019.
Nihad Kabir is an advocate of
the Supreme Court and a
director and shareholder of
Kedarpur Tea Co. Ltd. and
the daily Sangbad. She is a
Director of BRAC Bank, Infrastructure Development
Company Bangladesh Ltd., Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation,
bKash, and Independent Director of Square
Pharmaceuticals and Apex Footwear. She is Chairperson of
BRAC-EPL Investments and BRAC –EPL Stock Brokerage. She
is also a fellow of BIDS.
Dhaka Bank CEO reappointed
Dhaka Bank Limited has
recently witnessed the
reappointment of Syed
Mahbubur Rahman as
Managing Director and
CEO. Rahman joined the
bank as Managing Director
on November 08, 2015. He
will now stay in office till
November 7, 2021.
Rahman has 30 years' experience in banking services
and credit. Prior to joining Dhaka Bank, he was serving
in the same capacity at BRAC Bank Limited.
New director of Bank Asia
Dilwar H Choudhury has
been elected as an
Independent Director of
Bank Asia Limited. He is a
recognized professional
banker having 35 (thirty five)
years of work experience, in
eight different countries of
Asia, Europe and Africa
continents. He had also
worked as a Banking Associate of KPMG, Dhaka, under
World Bank's Financial Sector Reform Program, during
2004-2005.

22. DASHBOARD

23. 21 MTBiz
ECONOMIC FORECAST
Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
(Percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during July 17–August 14, 2018. Economies are listed
on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. WEO = World Economic Outlook. 1Difference based on
rounded figures for the current, July 2018 World Economic Outlook Update, and April 2018 World Economic Outlook forecasts. The differ-ences are
also adjusted to include Argentina’s consumer prices since the July 2018 Update.2Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries. 3For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from
2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 4Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
5Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $52.81
in 2017; the assumed price, based on futures markets, is $69.38 in 2018 and $68.76 in 2019. 6Excludes Venezuela but includes Argentina starting
from 2017 onward.
Global Growth Outlook
Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, 0.2 percentage point below the April 2018 WEO, even
though well above its level during 2012–16. Differences in the outlook across countries and regions are notable (Table
1.1). Global growth is expected to remain steady at 3.7 percent in 2020, as the decline in advanced economy growth
with the unwinding of the US fiscal stimulus and the fading of the favorable spillovers from US demand to trading
partners is offset by a pickup in emerging market and developing economy growth. Thereafter, global growth is
projected to slow to 3.6 percent by 2022–23, largely reflecting a moderation in advanced economy growth toward the
potential of that group.
Difference from April
2018 WEO1
2018 2019
Difference from July
2018 WEO Update1
2018 2019
Projections
2018 20192016 2017
World Output
Advanced Economies
United States
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Other Advanced Economies2
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
World Trade Volume (goods and services)
Commodity Prices (US dollars)
Oil5
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies6
World Output
Advanced Economies
United States
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Other Advanced Economies2
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
World Trade Volume (goods and services)
Commodity Prices (US dollars)
Oil5
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies6
3.7
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
1.5
3.0
1.7
1.7
3.0
2.8
4.7
5.2
23.3
1.7
4.3
3.7
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
1.5
3.0
1.7
1.7
3.0
2.8
4.7
5.2
23.3
1.7
4.3
3.3
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.2
1.1
0.9
3.2
1.0
1.8
1.4
2.3
4.4
2.2
-15.7
0.8
4.2
3.7
2.4
2.9
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.2
2.7
1.1
1.4
2.1
2.8
4.7
4.2
31.4
2.0
5.0
3.7
2.4
2.9
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.2
2.7
1.1
1.4
2.1
2.8
4.7
4.2
31.4
2.0
5.0
3.7
2.1
2.5
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.0
2.2
0.9
1.5
2.0
2.5
4.7
4.0
-0.9
1.9
5.2
3.7
2.1
2.5
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.0
2.2
0.9
1.5
2.0
2.5
4.7
4.0
-0.9
1.9
5.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-1.6
-0.2
0.3
3.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.2
1.0
2.9
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.6
4.4
...
16.2
1.2
4.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
0.9
-0.3
0.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
1.6
3.0
2.0
1.3
3.0
2.9
5.2
...
19.6
1.7
3.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.9
13.4
0.0
0.2
3.5
2.3
3.1
1.7
1.9
1.3
0.8
2.5
1.0
1.5
2.1
2.8
4.6
...
19.6
2.1
4.6
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.7
5.6
0.0
0.7
3.8
1.9
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.3
2.1
-0.3
1.4
1.9
2.4
5.3
...
-3.6
1.9
4.1

24. ECONOMIC FORECAST
22 MTBiz
Growth in advanced economies will remain well above
trend at 2.4 percent in 2018, before softening to 2.1
percent in 2019. The forecast for both years is 0.1
percentage point weaker than in the April 2018 WEO. In
2018, weaker-than-expected outturns in the first half of
the year have led to downward revisions for the euro
area and the United Kingdom. In 2019, recent trade
measures are expected to weigh on economic activity,
especially in the United States, where the 2019 growth
forecast was revised down by 0.2 percentage point.
Growth is expected to decline to 1.8 percent in 2020 as
the US fiscal stimulus begins to unwind and euro area
growth moderates toward its medium-term potential.
Growth is projected to fall to 1.4 percent later on as
working-age population growth continues to slow and
productivity growth remains moderate.
With emerging Asia continuing to expand at a strong
pace—despite a 0.3 percentage point downward
revision to the 2019 growth forecast mostly driven by
recently announced trade measures—and activity in
commodity exporters firming, growth in the emerging
market and developing economy group is set to remain
steady at 4.7 percent in 2018–19. Over the medium
term, growth is projected to rise to slightly less than 5
percent. Beyond 2019, the aggregate growth rate for
the group reflects offsetting developments as growth
moderates to a sustainable pace in China, while it
improves in India (owing to structural reforms and a
still-favorable demographic dividend), commodity
exporters (though to rates below the average of recent
decades), and some economies experiencing
macroeconomic stress in 2018–19. In comparison with
the April 2018 WEO, the growth forecast for emerging
market and developing economies was marked down
for 2018 and 2019 by 0.2 percentage point and 0.4
percentage point, respectively, and for 2020–23 by
about 0.2 percentage point. For 2018–19, the main
sources of the downward revision are the negative
expected impact of the trade measures implemented
since the April 2018 WEO on activity in China and other
economies in emerging Asia, much weaker activity in
Iran following the reimposition of US sanctions, a sharp
projected slowdown in Turkey following the ongoing
market turmoil, and a more subdued outlook for large
economies in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico).
Over 2020–23, the revisions primarily reflect a
downward reassessment of the still-strong growth
prospects for India and a lower growth forecast for
Pakistan and Turkey, in addition to continued weaker
growth in Iran.
Inflation Outlook
Largely reflecting recent increases in commodity prices,
inflation is expected to rise this year across both
advanced and emerging market and developing
economies. In advanced economies, it is projected to
pick up to 2 percent in 2018, from 1.7 percent in 2017.
Inflation in emerging market and developing
economies excluding Venezuela is expected to increase
to 5.0 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2017 (Box
1.4 provides details of the inflation outlook for
individual countries).
Among advanced economies, core inflation will rise
over the forecast horizon, with differentiation across
countries mostly based on cyclical positions. In the
United States, for example, core personal consumption
expenditure price inflation, the Federal Reserve’s
preferred measure, is expected to rise to 2.1 percent in
2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019 (from 1.6 percent in
2017), as the sizable, procyclical fiscal stimulus lifts
output above potential. Core inflation is assumed to
gradually decline to 2 percent thereafter, with a
monetary policy response that ensures expectations
remain well anchored. In the euro area, core
harmonized index of consumer prices inflation is
projected to increase slowly to 2 percent by 2022,
reflecting the influence of backward-looking elements
in the inflation processes.
Within the group of emerging market and developing
economies, core inflation rates are expected to be more
dispersed than among advanced economies. To a large
extent, the dispersion reflects variation in cyclical
positions, anchoring of inflation expectations, and
inflation targets.
Risks
The balance of risks to the short-term global growth
forecast has now shifted to the downside. The potential
for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening
of financial conditions in some parts of the world, the
rise in trade costs, slow implementation of reforms
recommended in the past, and waning growth
momentum, reflected in worse-than-anticipated
outturns in several large economies, weakening growth
of industrial production, and a softening of some
high-frequency indicators.
The limited policy space to counteract downturns in
advanced and emerging market economies further
exacerbates concerns about these undesirable
possibilities.

25. 23 MTBiz
WELLS FARGO MONTHLY OUTLOOK
INTERNATIONAL NEWS WELLS
SECURITIES
FARGO
All Good Things in Moderation
While the recent run of good economic tidings has
helped deliver the benefits of stronger economic
growth to more industries, regions and individuals, it is
important to remember that the key to a long life and
long economic expansion is to enjoy all things in
moderation. In keeping with that spirit the Federal
Reserve continues to gradually remove the policy
accommodation put in place in the aftermath of the
Financial Crisis and is nearly at what Wells Fargo believe
is the neutral level of the federal funds rate, which
should lead to progressively more modest gains in
economic growth over the forecast period.
The economy clearly has strong momentum headed
into the final quarter of 2018. Real GDP grew at a 3.5%
annual rate during the third quarter and the most
recent employment data show nonfarm payrolls adding
an average of 218,000 jobs per month for the past three
months. The unemployment rate has dipped down to
3.7% and wages are now up 3.1% year-to-year. Despite
the recent string of strong economic reports, there are
few signs the economy is on the verge of overheating.
Inflation remains close to the Fed’s target and slowing
global growth appears to be weighing on commodity
prices. With inflation running close to the Fed’s target,
the Fed should be able to stick to its plan to modestly
nudge interest rates higher.
Wells Fargo continue to see economic growth gradually
moderating back toward its long-term trend. The
benefits from tax reform will continue to propel growth
in 2019, but should fade over the course of the year, as
interest rates rise further.
Global Growth May Be Starting to Slow
Wells Fargolls Fargo outlook for the global economy is
little changed from Wells Fargo last update, although
Wells Fargo now see a further deceleration in global GDP
growth in 2019. To reflect this, Wells Fargo have slightly
lowered Wells Fargo global GDP forecast for 2019 to
3.6% from 3.7%, while leaving Wells Fargo forecast for
2020 unchanged at 3.4%. With that said, G20 economies
have continued to grow at a reasonable pace throughout
2018, while global economic activity remains resilient
evidenced by solid global export volumes, increasing at
3.9% year-over-year in August, slightly below the 2017
average, but sturdy nonetheless.
One of Wells Fargo primary concerns is a
sharper-than-expected growth slowdown in China.
Wells Fargo believe this will result in a material
slowdown to developing economies, which may also
may weigh on global growth in 2019. Wells Fargo have
also lowered Wells Fargo 2018, as well as 2019, growth
forecasts for the Eurozone. GDP, sentiment and
economic activity data have been softer than expected,
leading Wells Fargo to revise Wells Fargo 2018 GDP
growth forecast to under 2%, the lowest since 2016.
Risks to the outlook seem tilted to the downside, which
may result in slower global economic growth than Wells
Fargo are currently forecasting. The primary concern
being a further escalation in trade tensions between
the U.S. and China. There is also some possibility of
faster monetary tightening, especially in the U.S. and
Canada, if labor markets improve and wage pressures
continue to increase. This may lead to central banks
removing accommodative policy conditions at a quicker
pace than currently expected.
U.S. Overview International Overview
Source: U.S Department of Commerce, International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 4.1%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change : Q2 @ 2.8%
Forecast
7.5%
6.0%
4.5%
3.0%
1.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
7.5%
6.0%
4.5%
3.0%
1.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
Real Global GDP Growth
Year-Over-Year Percent Change, PPP Weights
Global GDP: 2017 @ 3.8%
Average 1980-Present: 3.5%
Period Average
WF
Forecast
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

26. 24 MTBiz
FINANCIAL GLOSSARY
Fixed income securities: A fixed-income security is an
investment that provides a return in the form of fixed
periodic payments and the eventual return of principal
at maturity. Unlike a variable-income security, where
payments change based on some underlying measure
such as short-term interest rates, the payments of a
fixed-income security are known in advance.
Blue Chip: A blue chip is a nationally recognized,
well-established and financially sounds company.
Blue chips generally sell high-quality, widely accepted
products and services. Blue chip companies are
known to weather downturns and operate profitably
in the face of adverse economic conditions, which
help to contribute to their long record of stable and
reliable growth.
Futures contract: A standardized, transferable,
exchange-traded contract that requires delivery of a
commodity, bond, currency, or stock index, at a
specified price, on a specified future date. Unlike
options, futures convey an obligation to buy. The risk
to the holder is unlimited, and because the payoff
pattern is symmetrical, the risk to the seller is
unlimited as well. Dollars lost and gained by each
party on a futures contract are equal and opposite. In
other words, futures trading are a zero-sum game.
Futures contracts are forward contracts, meaning
they represent a pledge to make a certain transaction
at a future date.
Dutch auction: Dutch auction, also known as
descending price auction, uses a bidding process to
find an optimal market price for the stock, the highest
price at which an issuing company can sell all the
available shares. An alternative to the traditional
negotiated pricing process used by underwriters to
set IPO prices, it was most recently employed by
Google and is used for US Treasury auctions. Named
after the famous auctions of Dutch tulip bulbs in the
17th century, it is based on a pricing system devised
by Nobel prize winning economist William Vickrey.
Paid in Capital: Paid-in capital is the amount of capital
"paid in" by investors during common or preferred
stock issuances, including the par value of the shares
themselves. Paid-in capital represents the funds
raised by the business from equity, and not from
ongoing operations.
Due Diligence (DD): Due diligence (DD) is an
investigation or audit of a potential investment to
confirm all material facts in regards to a sale, such as
reviewing all financial records plus anything else
deemed material to the sale. Generally, due diligence
refers to the care a reasonable person should take
before entering into an agreement or a transaction
with another party. When sellers perform a due
diligence analysis on buyers, items that may be
considered are the buyer's ability to purchase, as well
as other items that would affect the purchased entity
or the seller after the sale has been completed.
G O S S A R Y Y
Y
R
R
A
A
S S
O
O
L
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28. MTB POS