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#NoEstimates Thinking

Why estimates lead us in the wrong direction and what we can do about it!

#NoEstimates Thinking

  1. #NOESTIMATES thinking #iad14 Massimo Iacolare @iacoware
  2. my journey
  3. MYTH
  4. Estimating sucks!
  5. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions?
  6. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions? Relax, I’m kidding ;-)
  7. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions? Relax, I’m kidding ;-) kind of…
  8. just lazy?
  9. from #NoEstimates to #NoSalary
  10. woody zuill @woodyzuill vasco duarte @duarte_vasco Neil killick @neil_killick Ángel Medinilla @angel_m J.B. rainsberger @jbrains Chris R. Chapman @DerailleurAgile Joshua Kerievsky @JoshuaKerievsky Henri Karhatsu @karhatsu many more…
  11. #NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates' Woody Zuill
  12. “#NoEstimates is a critique to how estimates are usually handled not to how they should be done”
  13. ED D
  14. ED EVELOPMENT STIMATES RIVEN D
  15. WHY ESTIMATES DON’T HELP
  16. WRITING SOFTWARE
  17. DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY every project brings something new
  18. Domain Technology - tools process people
  19. Domain Technology - tools process people + we learn by doing
  20. UNCERTAINTY & upfront ESTIMATES ?
  21. Oil & water
  22. unreliable
  23. MOST useful at the beginning maximum ignorance
  24. Cost of a feature essential complexity +
  25. Cost of a feature essential complexity accidental complexity + Foundamental theorem of agile software development
  26. How much time do you need to add “customer promotions” to our e-commerce?
  27. How much time do you need to add “customer promotions” to our e-commerce?
  28. BIASES optimism bias anchoring bias LOSS AVERSION AVAILABILITY BIAS sunk cost fallacy SELECTIVE PERCEPT. …many more
  29. we suck at making predictions
  30. side effects
  31. Set Expectations
  32. Foster plans detailed plans detailed backlog
  33. “estimating means you’re getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you start” vasco duarte
  34. learn by doing “estimating means you’re getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you start” vasco duarte
  35. Hinder Adaptation
  36. loss aversion Hinder Adaptation
  37. promote cost-based mindset
  38. cost ↳number ↳certain value ↳ ??? ↳ UNcertain
  39. availability bias cost ↳number ↳certain value ↳ ??? ↳ UNcertain
  40. Costs become the target to Hit
  41. same cost more features
  42. same cost more features
  43. more features = better software
  44. more features == better software
  45. more features == in case you are a developer better software
  46. more features == better software
  47. more features == in case you come from javascript = better software
  48. more features == in case you come from javascript = better software Fallacy
  49. minimize output maximize outcome
  50. more features = bigger codebase = Hinder ADAPTation
  51. more features = bigger codebase = Hinder ADAPTation again
  52. BETTER SOFTWARE
  53. BETTER features = BETTER SOFTWARE
  54. RECAP
  55. don’t help with uncertainty plagued by fallacies foster detailed plans COST-based mindset hinder adaptation
  56. Where’s the exit, please?
  57. step 0 sign the contract
  58. get off to a good start
  59. get off to a good start affect execution
  60. the perils of fixed-price fixed-scope
  61. fixed price - fixed scope requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date
  62. fixed price - fixed scope requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date
  63. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
  64. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
  65. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
  66. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck
  67. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees
  68. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees more analysis
  69. you f*ck me, I F*ck you fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts
  70. Agile contracts Capped time-material incremental delivery
  71. the exit, please?
  72. adopt a development style which doesn’t rely on estimates
  73. we learn by doing so we should hit the target iteratively
  74. adopt a development style which foster a healthy, mature relationship with my customers
  75. do the right thing do it right do it iteratively
  76. do the right thing do it right
  77. do the right thing solve the right problem the starting point matters
  78. map the problem with story mapping
  79. jeff patton
  80. communication tool whole point of Xp: business people and technical people should talk help build customer trust Visualizing your strategy
  81. story mapping benefits
  82. build a shared understanding
  83. spot story’s holes
  84. build effective releases prioritize by outcome, not features walking skeleton plan to reduce uncertainty
  85. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  86. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  87. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  88. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  89. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  90. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  91. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  92. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  93. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  94. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  95. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  96. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
  97. keep plans lightweight embrace flexible scope half life of requirements
  98. do it right get better at software development how hard can it be?
  99. do it right get better at software development how hard can it be?
  100. support an iterative-incremental style of development
  101. what do we need?
  102. tight feedback loop slice scope exploit iterative development technical excellence to keep it all together
  103. tight feedback loop tdd ↔ continuous delivery
  104. slice everything generate options always assume there’s a simpler way defer commitment
  105. exploit iterative development don’t know what i want Uncertainty-Jeff-Patton
  106. “if you work on it only once you are not doing iterative development”
  107. tech. EXCellence you’ll need to grow your design incrementally… …so you won’t get stuck and rewrite it every time you touch it
  108. iterative development is the result of your well trained technical abilities
  109. nurture your skills
  110. technical xp practices pair programming simple design refactoring tdd
  111. “#NoEstimates is merely a call to refocus on the agile manifesto” Woody Zuill
  112. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan
  113. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan #NoEstimates
  114. Massimo Iacolare freelance .net and js expert quality addicted love shipping features love making users happy co-founder of the awesome
  115. Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna
  116. Thanks Questions? joind.in/event/iad14

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