Why estimates lead us in the wrong direction and what we can do about it!

1. #NOESTIMATES
thinking
#iad14
Massimo Iacolare @iacoware

2. my journey

3. MYTH

4. Estimating
sucks!

5. Estimating
sucks!
End of story. Questions?

6. Estimating
sucks!
End of story. Questions?
Relax, I’m kidding ;-)

7. Estimating
sucks!
End of story. Questions?
Relax, I’m kidding ;-)
kind of…

8. just lazy?

9. from
#NoEstimates
to
#NoSalary

11. woody zuill
@woodyzuill
vasco duarte
@duarte_vasco Neil killick
@neil_killick
Ángel Medinilla
@angel_m
J.B. rainsberger
@jbrains
Chris R. Chapman
@DerailleurAgile
Joshua Kerievsky
@JoshuaKerievsky
Henri Karhatsu
@karhatsu
many more…

12. #NoEstimates is a hashtag for the
topic of exploring alternatives to
estimates for making decisions in
software development. That is, ways
to make decisions with 'No Estimates'
Woody Zuill

13. “#NoEstimates is a critique
to how estimates are
usually handled not to
how they should be done”

14. ED D

15. ED EVELOPMENT
STIMATES
RIVEN
D

17. WHY ESTIMATES
DON’T HELP

18. WRITING
SOFTWARE

19. DEALING WITH
UNCERTAINTY
every project brings something new

20. Domain
Technology - tools
process
people

21. Domain
Technology - tools
process
people
+
we learn by doing

22. UNCERTAINTY
&
upfront
ESTIMATES ?

23. Oil & water

24. unreliable

25. MOST useful at the beginning
maximum
ignorance

26. Cost of a feature
essential
complexity +

27. Cost of a feature
essential
complexity
accidental
complexity +
Foundamental theorem of agile software development

29. How much time do you need to
add “customer promotions”
to our e-commerce?

30. How much time do you need to
add “customer promotions”
to our e-commerce?

31. BIASES
optimism bias
anchoring bias
LOSS AVERSION
AVAILABILITY BIAS
sunk cost fallacy
SELECTIVE PERCEPT.
…many more

32. we suck at making
predictions

33. side effects

34. Set
Expectations

35. Foster plans
detailed plans
detailed backlog

36. “estimating means you’re
getting married to a plan,
which you know is wrong
even when you start”
vasco duarte

37. learn by doing
“estimating means you’re
getting married to a plan,
which you know is wrong
even when you start”
vasco duarte

38. Hinder
Adaptation

39. loss aversion
Hinder
Adaptation

40. promote
cost-based
mindset

41. cost
↳number
↳certain
value
↳ ???
↳ UNcertain

42. availability bias
cost
↳number
↳certain
value
↳ ???
↳ UNcertain

43. Costs become
the target to Hit

44. same cost
more features

45. same cost
more features

46. more features
=
better software

47. more features
==
better software

48. more features
==
in case you are
a developer
better software

49. more features
==
better software

50. more features
==
in case you come
from javascript =
better software

51. more features
==
in case you come
from javascript =
better software
Fallacy

52. minimize output
maximize outcome

53. more features
=
bigger codebase
=
Hinder ADAPTation

54. more features
=
bigger codebase
=
Hinder ADAPTation
again

55. BETTER SOFTWARE

56. BETTER features
=
BETTER SOFTWARE

57. RECAP

58. don’t help with uncertainty
plagued by fallacies
foster detailed plans
COST-based mindset
hinder adaptation

61. Where’s the
exit, please?

62. step 0
sign the contract

63. get off to a
good start

64. get off to a
good start
affect execution

65. the perils of
fixed-price
fixed-scope

66. fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan)
a price
a delivery date

67. fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan)
a price
a delivery date

68. premises
requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly

69. premises
requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly

70. premises
requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly

71. customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you fail
you suck

72. customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you fail
you suck
bigger penalty fees

73. customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you fail
you suck
bigger penalty fees
more analysis

74. you f*ck me,
I F*ck you
fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts

75. Agile contracts
Capped time-material
incremental delivery

77. the exit,
please?

78. adopt a
development style
which doesn’t rely
on estimates

79. we learn by doing
so we should hit the
target iteratively

80. adopt a development
style which foster a
healthy, mature
relationship with my
customers

81. do the right thing
do it right
do it iteratively

82. do the right thing
do it right

83. do the right thing
solve the right problem
the starting point matters

84. map the
problem with
story mapping

85. jeff patton

86. communication tool
whole point of Xp: business people and
technical people should talk
help build customer trust Visualizing
your strategy

95. story mapping
benefits

96. build a shared
understanding

97. spot story’s
holes

98. build effective
releases
prioritize by outcome, not features
walking skeleton
plan to reduce uncertainty

99. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

100. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

101. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

102. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

103. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

104. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

105. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

106. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

107. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

108. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

109. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

110. avoid silos
Users catalog cart promo payments

111. keep plans
lightweight
embrace flexible scope
half life of requirements

113. do it right
get better at software development
how hard
can it be?

114. do it right
get better at software development
how hard
can it be?

115. support an
iterative-incremental
style of development

116. what do we need?

117. tight feedback loop
slice scope
exploit iterative development
technical excellence to keep
it all together

118. tight feedback
loop
tdd ↔ continuous delivery

119. slice everything
generate options
always assume there’s
a simpler way
defer commitment

120. exploit
iterative
development
don’t know what i want Uncertainty-Jeff-Patton

122. “if you work on it
only once you are
not doing iterative
development”

123. tech. EXCellence
you’ll need to grow your design
incrementally…
…so you won’t get stuck and
rewrite it every time you touch it

124. iterative development
is the result of your
well trained
technical abilities

125. nurture your
skills

126. technical xp
practices
pair programming
simple design refactoring
tdd

127. “#NoEstimates is merely
a call to refocus on
the agile manifesto”
Woody Zuill

128. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools
Working software over Comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation
Responding to change over Following a plan

129. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools
Working software over Comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation
Responding to change over Following a plan
#NoEstimates

130. Massimo Iacolare
freelance
.net and js expert
quality addicted
love shipping features
love making users happy
co-founder of
the awesome

131. Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna

132. Thanks
Questions?
joind.in/event/iad14