DO Writing Sample ABM

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POLS 301
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis Poses No Immediate Threat to US but Could Cripple Egypt
Matthew Zoltan Takats
Professor Abruzzino
November 19,2014
Executive Summary
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO)1 based out of the Sinai
Peninsula region of Egypt does not pose an immediate threat to the U.S. but could potentially
grow to become a threat equal to that of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) because of the
recent union between the two terrorist organizations. While ABM is currently capable of causing
a threat to U.S. interests, it does not currently possess the intent to do so. ABM does, however,
possess the capabilities and intent to potentially inflict serious harm to the Egyptian government.
THREAT ANALYSIS
Capabilities of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
The capabilities of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) (a radical Islamic group based out of the Sinai
Peninsula area of Egypt), can be seen from the success of its operations carried out during the
early months of 2014. In January, the group shot down an Egyptian military helicopter using
surface-to-air missiles. This event shows that ABM has high-tech weapons capabilities at its
disposal and that it is able to use these weapons effectively. According to the U.S. Department
of State, ABM successfully carried out the assassination of General Mohammed Saeed, the head
of the Egyptian Interior Minister’s technical office, and has executed car bombings, suicide
bombings, rocket attacks on cities, attacks on pipelines, and attacks on border patrol stations.
These attacks have been targeted on Egyptian security forces, Israeli forces, tourists, and
civilians2. These events demonstrate that ABM possesses effective terroristic capabilities.
Western officials have reported to a dependable online news site that ABM is recruiting

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POLS 301
experienced fighters and has also showcased sophisticated tactics while performing raids
throughout Egypt3, proving that ABM has the capability of being an efficient fighting force.
Intentions of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
With the exception of the killing of an American energy contractor4 and the murder of an
American during a carjacking5, both of which ABM claimed responsibility for, ABM has not
shown much intent to target U.S. assets directly. Other targets of ABM include tourists, as
demonstrated by the bombing attack on a tourist bus in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula region, in which
three South Korean sightseers were killed. Although the tourists killed in the tour bus bombing
were not Americans, it poses a potential danger to any American tourists traveling in the Sinai
Peninsula region. The ABM’s primary intent is to attack Egyptian military and security forces in
retaliation for the military’s ousting of the Islamic president the year before6.
Allegiance to ISIS: Strengthening ABM and causing potential leadership change
On 10 November, ABM officially declared allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS)7. ABM could receive weapons, money, oil, skilled fighters, and/or new leadership from
ISIS, all of which would make ABM a more formidable fighting force, but in-depth knowledge
about the relationship between the two groups is still unknown8. After reports by high-ranking
officials stated that the leader of ABM, Shadi al-Menei, was killed in action, no reports have
surfaced stating that his spot has been filled by another high-ranked militant9. With the potential
for the leadership position of ABM being open, the recent allegiance to ISIS, and the size and
power difference between the two groups (ISIS being larger and more powerful), a forecast can
be made that a senior ISIS member may be dispatched to Egypt to fill the leadership position,
therefore enabling control of ABM activities and influencing ABM to adapt the same intentions
as ISIS.

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POLS 301
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis as a Threat to the United States and Egypt
ABM does possess the capabilities that would make them a fairly formidable force, yet ABM
does lack in overall size (upwards of a few thousand). With the recent allegiance to ISIS, ABM’s
numbers could begin to grow if ISIS leadership chooses to send militants to Egypt to fight
alongside ABM militants. Due to the overall lack of intent that ABM has to attack U.S. assets,
ABM is not seen as an immediate threat to the U.S., directly. ABM does, however, pose a direct
threat to the government of Egypt because of its primary goal of attacking the Egyptian military
and security forces, which it has already successfully done. In addition, it has the capabilities to
carry out operations to disrupt and dismantle the Egyptian government, which could be
forecasted to strengthen due to the group’s recent alliance with ISIS.
Outlook
With ABM recently pledging allegiance to ISIS, it can be forecasted that Egypt could begin to
see ABM gradually take over the country as ISIS did in parts of Iraq and Syria. The expansion
would not only help ABM extend its control over Egypt and achieve policy goals that it has been
striving for, but it would also help ISIS spread its ideology into Africa, making it harder for the
U.S. to achieve its ultimate goal of destroying ISIS.
1 Officeof the Spokesperson, “TerroristDesignation of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis”,U.S. Department of State, April 9,
2014,accessed November 17, 2014
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224566.htm
2Officeof the Spokesperson, “TerroristDesignation of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis”,U.S. Department of State, April 9,
2014,accessed November 17, 2014

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POLS 301
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224566.htm
3 David D. Kirkpatrick,“MilitantGroup in Egypt Vows Loyalty to ISIS”, New York Times, November 10, 2014,
accessed November 16, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/world/middleeast/egyptian-militant-group-pledges-loyalty-to-isis.html
4 Laura Dean, “The extremist group that killed hundreds of security forces in Egypt justpledged allegianceto the
IslamicState”, Global Post, November 11,2014, accessed November 16, 2014
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/141111/the-extremist-group-killed-hundreds-
security-forces-egypt-j
7 Laura Dean, “The extremist group that killed hundreds of security forces in Egypt justpledged allegianceto the
IslamicState”, Global Post, November 11,2014, accessed November 16, 2014
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/141111/the-extremist-group-killed-hundreds-
security-forces-egypt-j
9 Shounaz Meky, “Head of Egypt’s Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis killed”, Al Arabiya News, May 23,2014, accessed
November 17, 2014
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/05/23/Head-of-Egypt-s-militant-group-killed.html

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