The sharp decline in Chinese stock markets a few months ago is a reminder of two things.
The first is the continued fragility of the Chinese market. The second is that any economic dysfunction has political implications, both in Chinese domestic and foreign policy.
This, in turn, will affect Chinese economic performance. It is essential, therefore, to understand Chinese national strategy.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been portrayed as an increasingly aggressive country prepared to challenge the United States.
At the same time, aside from relatively minor forays into the South and East China Seas, China has avoided significant involvement in the troubles roiling in the rest of Eurasia.
There is a gap between what is generally expected of China and what China actually does.
To understand China's strategy, it is helpful to follow the logic inherent in the following five maps.
14. A very similar geography
emerges when we look at
rainfall patterns.
15. The line, called the 15-inch
Isohyet, separates the area in
the east that receives enough
rainfall to maintain an
agricultural economy.
16. As a result, the majority of
Chinese live in this area, while
non-Han Chinese regions in the
west are lightly inhabited or
uninhabited.
17. That means the Chinese
population is crowded into a
much smaller area and is
farther from its neighbors.
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32. If it lost control of Tibet or
Xinjiang, China’s borders would
move far east, the buffer for
Han China would disappear,
and then China would face a
strategic crisis.
33. China Has Only One External Strategic
Interest—the Seas to the East
34. China has vital maritime
interests built around global
trade, but the problem is the
sea lanes are under
American control.
35. China’s coastal seas are
surrounded by archipelagos of
island states with narrow
passages between them.
37. China currently lacks resources
to build a navy that could
match the US, so the country is
buying time by trying to appear
more capable than it is.
38. The Chinese will maintain this
posture until it has the time
and resources to close the gap.
39. In summary, China has three
strategic imperatives. Two
internal and one external.
40. First, it must maintain control
over Xinjiang and Tibet. Second,
it must preserve the regime and
prevent regionalism.
41. And last, it must find a solution
to its enclosure in the East and
South China Seas.
42. China’s strategic priority now,
however, is internal stability.
And that defines everything
else China does.
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George Friedman provides unbiased assessment of the global
outlook in his free publication, This Week in Geopolitics.
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will drive events and investors in the next year, decade, or
even a century from now.
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