McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

McKinsey & Company 1
We have seen six fundamental shifts to consumer behavior,
some of which will have a lasting impact
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
+35%
January 2021 year-
over-year online
credit-card and
debit-card
penetration
increase, as a % of
total spend
51%
of consumers plan
to splurge or treat
themselves, some
starting immediately
and some waiting
for COVID-19 to
subside
39%
of consumers have
tried new brands
over the course of
COVID-19
28%
of consumers have
invested in new
uses of their living
space at home
+50%
vaccinated
consumers
engaging in usual
out-of-home
activities vs. those
interested in
vaccination
~40%
of consumers are
optimistic about an
economic recovery
post-COVID-19
4. Continued
digital
stickiness
2. Signs of
spend recovery
5. Rebalancing
of homebody
economy
6. Evolution
of loyalty
3. Vaccination
accelerating
recovery
1. Steady
overall optimism

Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
10 14 18 17
32
21
31
20
25
37
43
46
53 59
50
62
52 67
71
61
47
39
30 24 18 17 17 12
4 2
14
45
41
Mixed: The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
The United States is more optimistic than European countries but
less so than India, China, or Mexico
Steady overall optimism
1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
2.China’s increase in optimism was compared to September instead of November.
US India China Brazil Germany
UK Spain
Italy
France Japan
2/18–22 2/20–3/3 2/20–3/8 2/20–3/1 2/23–27
2/23–27 2/23–27
2/23–27
2/23–27 2/24–27
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
Mexico
2/20–3/2
0 +9 +9
+3 +6 +13 +1 +7 +4 +3 +5
X Increase in optimism since
November 2020, percentage point2

Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
13% 16% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15%
20% 18% 17% 18% 19% 21% 17% 17% 14% 13% 14%
43%
45%
45%
47% 46%
48% 48% 52% 52%
49% 49% 49% 47% 46%
46%
46% 45%
44% 46% 45%
44%
39% 41% 37% 39% 35% 36% 33% 34% 32% 33% 34% 36% 35% 32% 36% 39% 42% 41% 41%
Apr 27–
May 3
Mar
16–17
Mar
20–22
Mar
23–29
Jul 30–
Aug 2
Mar 30–
Apr 5
April
6–12
Apr
13–19
May
18–24
May
4–10
May
11–17
Sep
18–24
Jun
1–7
Apr
20–26
Jun
15–21
Jul
7–12
Aug
19–23
Oct
23–27
Nov
9–13
Feb
18-22
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression / fall into
lengthy recession
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Optimism regarding US economic recovery has improved since the
height of the pandemic, but has remained stable since September
1 Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 8/19–8/23/2020, n = 2,026; 7/30–8/2/2020, n = 2,024;
7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 6/1–6/7/2020, n = 1,966; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; 5/11–5/17/2020, n = 2,002; 5/4–5/10/2020, n = 1,993; 4/27–5/3/2020, n = 2,105; 4/20–4/26/2020, n = 1,052; 4/13–4/19/2020, n =
1,052; 4/6–4/12/2020, n = 1,063; 3/30–4/5/2020, n = 1,484; 3/23–3/29/2020, n = 1,119; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,073; 3/16–3/17/2020, n = 1,042; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
2020 2021

Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1
% of respondents
Engagement in out-of-home activities has leveled off in recent months,
with notable differences by generation and vaccination openness/status
33
36
36
36
32
30
27
20
May 24
Jul 12
Feb 22
Sep 24
Nov 13
Jun 21
Oct 27
Aug 23
Overall
Cautious Unlikely
33%
Vaccinated Interested
54%
29%
22%
Baby boomers
Gen Z
28%
Millennials Gen X
28%
35% 38%
Medium
($50K–$100K)
Low
(<$50K)
High
(>$100K)
35%
30% 33%
~33%
of vaccinated people
are doing out-of-home
activities
~37%
of millennials are
doing out-of-home
activities
By
generation2
By income
By
vaccination
adoption3
30–35%
of all income groups
are doing out-of-home
activities
1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981-1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The Traditionalist/Silent Generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3 Category definitions: Vaccinated = “I have already received at least one shot”; Interested = “I am likely / very likely to get vaccinated”; Cautious = “I am somewhat likely / somewhat unlikely to get vaccinated”; Unlikely = “I am unlikely / very
unlikely to get vaccinated.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 8/19–8/23/2020, n = 2,026; 7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923;
6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

While most consumers limit out-of-home activities now, they expect
to visit friends, shop, and dine out more once COVID-19 subsides
Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1
% of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks
+17
+39
+50
+25
+8
+29
+6
+8
+25
+9
+15
+23
+24
+29
+36
+1
+12
+27
+42
+37
Net intent: 1–15 Net intent: 16–30 Net intent: 31–50
1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Responder % is based on those who previously selected “Yes” to having done the activity once per year prior to the COVID-19 crisis.
2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began?
Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from adding
% of respondents stating they will do more or about the same, and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all.
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
30
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an outdoor event
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
12
Get together with family
9
10
Go out for family entertainment
Attend an indoor cultural event
Get together with friends
35
15
30
24
35
13
Use public transportation
Shop for non-necessities
Work outside my home
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
Shop for groceries/necessities
Use ride-sharing service
Go to a shopping mall
Travel by train
Rent a short-term home
Stay in a hotel
Travel by airplane
22
50
81
59
25
28
26
22
15
11
Work
Shopping
Transport/
Travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain
-ment

Early signs of spend recovery are expected to continue with
stimulus checks deployment and consumers’ eagerness to splurge
3. Consumers are eager to
spend and splurge
2. Stimulus payments and
holiday pull-through have
influenced the recovery
1. Spend is fluctuating but
showing an upward trend
Year-on-year credit-card spend September
to February was flat vs. a contraction of 8%
during March to August
~15–20%
Uplift in spend from stimulus recipients the
first weeks after the stimulus payment
51%
of consumers plan to splurge or treat
themselves, some starting immediately and
some waiting for COVID-19 to subside
Signs of spend recovery
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years; Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-
card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021; Earnest Research “Impact of Stimulus Payments on Consumer Spending” February 2021
Flat year-on-year spend

Spend has shown early signs of recovery in the past six months, aided
by holiday pull-through and stimulus payments
Year-over-year credit-card spend,1 %
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data from 2/2019–2/2021; Earnest Research “Impact of Stimulus Payments on Consumer Spending” February 2021
1 Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers; does not include cash. Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (2/2020–2/2021) compared to monthly sales in prior period (2/2019–2/2020).
2 Year-over-year spend in March–August 2020 decreased by 8% compared to same period in previous year, whereas September–February remained flat compared to same period in previous year.
3 Year-over-year change in spend for stimulus recipients versus those who did not receive stimulus payments.
10%
-6%
-18%
-9%
-6% -5%
-3%
1%
2% 1%
-2%
3%
-4%
Feb Mar Apr Jan
Jun
May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb
First round of
stimulus payment
Second round of
stimulus payment
Holiday pull-
forward spend
Spend is fluctuating but
showing an upward trend
Stimulus payments and
holiday-influenced recovery
Those who received stimulus money in
April/May and January showed a 15–20%
uplift in spend.3 Early holiday shopping in
October and November helped support
positive growth in those months.
Mar-Aug
6 month YoY: –8%2
Sep-Feb
6 month YoY: 0%2

Around half of US consumers plan to spend extra to splurge or treat
themselves, with notable differences by income and generation
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
~51%
Plan to splurge or treat
themselves
45%
Vaccinated Interested
45%
Unlikely
Cautious
56% 54%
Gen X
Gen Z
48%
Millennials
68%
Baby boomers
59%
35%
38%
Low
(<$50K)
Mid
($50K–$100K)
High
(>$100K)
51%
67%
1 Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3 Category definitions: Vaccinated = “I have already received at least one shot”; Interested = “I am likely / very likely to get vaccinated”; Cautious = “I am somewhat likely / somewhat unlikely to get vaccinated”; Unlikely = “I am unlikely / very
unlikely to get vaccinated.”
~67%
of millennials
By
generation2
~67%
of more wealthy
households
By income
~56%
of fully or partially
vaccinated people
By
vaccination
adoption3

High-income millennials intend to splurge the most, but intent is
also high among Gen Z, all millennials and higher-income Gen X
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–49%
32%
50%
53%
29%
51%
66%
63%
34%
65%
82%
66%
46%
1 Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to treat themselves or splurge
~51%
Plan to splurge or
treat themselves Gen Z
Millennials
Gen X
Generation2
Mid
Low High
Baby boomers
Household income
($50–$100K/year)
(<$50K/year) (>$100K/year)

This extra spend is expected across categories, and more than half
of consumers plan to treat themselves before COVID-19 subsides
Expected leisure categories on which people
plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
46
44
43
37
32
30
28
28
27
Out-of-home entertainment
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Travel, lodging, vacation
Beauty & personal care
Electronics
Items for your home
Household essentials
Fitness, sports, outdoors
Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category
24
16
32
29
32
37
15
26
20
22
26
23
26
21
20
27
22
28
15
13
13
12
14
10
14
18
17
40
45
32
34
33
34
44
34
36
Anytime Family is vaccinated
Govt restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading
I am vaccinated
1 Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2 Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.

-80
-20
-10
-30
-70
0
-60
-50
-40
10
20
Jun
21
Mar
22
Apr
19
Jun
7
Mar
17
Mar
29
Apr
5
Jul
12
Apr
12
Apr
26
May
3
May
10
May
17
May
24
Aug
2
Aug
23
Oct
23
Sep
24
Nov
9
Feb
22
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
Net intent2
While net intent for discretionary spend is still negative,
spend intent has recovered steadily since April 2020
Personal-care products
Groceries
Household supplies
Skin care & makeup
Consumer electronics
Fitness & wellness
Apparel
International flights
Domestic flights
Out-of-home
entertainment
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 8/19–8/23/2020, n = 2,026; 7/30–8/2/2020, n =
2,024; 7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 6/1–6/7/2020, n = 1,966; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; 5/11–5/17/2020, n = 2,002; 5/4–5/10/2020, n = 1,993; 4/27–5/3/2020, n = 2,105; 4/20–4/26/2020, n = 1,052; 4/13–
4/19/2020, n = 1,052; 4/6–4/12/2020, n = 1,063; 3/30–4/5/2020, n = 1,484; 3/23–3/29/2020, n = 1,119; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,073; 3/16–3/17/2020, n = 1,042; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.

Consumers indicate they will spend extra on travel and mobility,
out-of-home entertainment, and restaurants after the pandemic
1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual?
2 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic?
–15 to 0 Below –15
Above +1 Below 0
Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15
Net intent3
Post-
COVID-19
Next 2
weeks Evolution
Groceries/food for home 11
17
Household supplies 6
4
Tobacco products & smoking supplies -4
-3
Food takeout & delivery -10
-10
Meal at quick-service restaurants -6
-13
Toys & baby supplies -1
-15
Personal-care products 4
0
Jewelry -13
-35
Meal at restaurant 13
-27
Apparel 0
-32
Kitchen & dining -4
-21
Footwear -4
-31
Skin care & makeup 0
-21
Home decor & furniture -7
-32
Home improvement & gardening supplies 8
-17
Sports/outdoors equipment & supplies 0
-26
Accessories (e.g., handbags, sunglasses) -7
-35
Net intent3
Next 2
weeks
Post-
COVID-19 Evolution
Pet food & supplies 2 5
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicines 1 7
Domestic flights -40 14
Hotel/resort stays -42 10
Adventures & tours -27 18
Entertainment out of home -32 16
Pet-care services -9 3
Fitness & wellness services (e.g., gym) -12 8
Personal-care services (e.g., hair salon) -19 4
Gasoline 1 25
Short-term apartment or house rental -29 13
Cruises -21 18
Travel by car -16 21
International flights -26 20
Books, magazines, newspapers -11 -4
Consumer electronics -30 -5
Entertainment at home 1 0
Vehicles -15 -3
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks1 compared to post-COVID-192
% of respondents

Vaccinated people are more confident that their routines and
finances will return to normal by the end of 2021
Vaccination accelerating recovery
34
36
26
32
52
42
42
39 71
78
86
68
7
4
12
27
68
66
52
40
Vaccinated
67
Unlikely
Interested
Cautious
75
64
70
Already back to normal By Dec 2021
Overindexed on rural consumers vs
all respondents (index 116)
1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3 Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received both
doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “very likely” (6) and “likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “somewhat likely” (4) or “somewhat unlikely” (3)
are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “unlikely” (2) or “very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.”
Expectations on routines returning to normal1,3
% of respondents
Expectations on finances returning to normal2,3
% of respondents

Vaccinated consumers are beginning to return to out-of-home
activities and spend at near pre-pandemic levels
Already engaging in
out-of-home activity2
Vaccination
status1
1 Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received both
doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “very likely” (6) and “likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “somewhat likely” (4) or “somewhat unlikely” (3)
are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “unlikely” (2) or “very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.”
2 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
3 Q: Over the next 2 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same or less money on these categories than usual?
4 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. It is then multiplied by the % of people who respond as typically
purchasing in that category, to effectively weight the average across categories.
19%
11%
24%
28% 15%
12%
33%
30%
Net spend intent
next 2 weeks over usual3
Spend Less Spend more
Spend the same
33%
22%
29%
54%
Net intent4
-4
-13
-20
-19
27%
increase
in net intent to spend in next 2
weeks for those vaccinated vs
those interested in vaccination
50% more
vaccinated consumers say they
are engaging in usual out-of-
home activities vs those
interested in vaccination
Vaccinated
Interested
Cautious
Unlikely

Although still cautious, vaccinated consumers have engaged in
more out-of-home activities than ‘vaccine interested’ consumers
Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks by those vaccinated1
% of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks
17
Get together with family
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Attend an outdoor event
Go out for family entertainment
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
35
Attend an indoor cultural event
Go to a hair or nail salon
Get together with friends
39
23
18
18
32
32
25
Use public transportation
Shop for groceries/necessities
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
Shop for non-necessities
24
Work outside my home
Travel by train
Go to a shopping mall
Use ride-sharing service
Rent a short-term home
Travel by airplane
25
Stay in a hotel
62
80
18
56
33
36
23
22
17
Increase over
those interested
in being
vaccinated2
1.3x
1.1x
1.0x
1.6x
1.4x
1.5x
1.0x
2.0x
2.4x
1.6x
1.7x
Work
Shopping
Transport/
Travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain
-ment
2.6x
1.8x
2.7x
1.3x
2.9x
1.2x
1.4x
1.0x
1.2x
1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Showing respondents who selected “yes” and also reported as being at least partially vaccinated. The responder base is comprised only of those who have
answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19.
2 Increase in having done the activity is determined between those who indicate being at least partially vaccinated and those who indicate as only “interested” in being vaccinated.
Increase: Below 1x Increase: 1x Difference: 2x+
Increase over
those interested
in being
vaccinated2
Increase: 1.1–1.9x

-2%
2 Q: Over the next 2 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same or less money on these categories than usual?
Footwear -20%
-31%
Apparel -28%
-31%
Home improvement & gardening supplies -5%
-17%
Kitchen & dining -4%
-18%
Skin care & makeup -13%
-19%
Food takeout & delivery -1%
-5%
Tobacco products & smoking supplies 9%
2%
Personal-care products 3%
1%
Groceries/food for home 19%
19%
Meal at quick-service restaurants 2%
-17%
Meal at restaurant -12%
-30%
Accessories (e.g., handbags, sunglasses) -21%
-34%
-16%
Jewelry -33%
Toys & baby supplies 6%
-17%
Home decor & furniture -16%
-32%
Sports/outdoors equipment & supplies -8%
-27%
Pet food & supplies 6%
7%
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicines 8%
3%
Domestic flights -41%
-41%
Hotel/resort stays -31%
-44%
Adventures & tours -20%
-27%
Pet-care services 2%
-6%
Gasoline 6%
-4%
Short-term apartment or house rental -24%
-26%
Cruises -15%
-24%
Books, magazines, newspapers -1%
-4%
Consumer electronics -20%
-30%
Entertainment at home 8%
8%
Vehicles -11%
Entertainment out of home -17%
-32%
Fitness & wellness services (e.g., gym) 4%
-11%
Personal-care services (e.g., hair salon) -1%
-21%
Travel by car -4%
-19%
International flights -10%
-29%
Household supplies 5%
9%
Vaccinated consumers have a higher net intent to spend, including
for restaurants, in-person services, and out-of-home entertainment
Net intent1 for expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual2 Net intent between 0 and –15 Net intent below –15
Net intent Above +1
Below 1
Categories with >10 percentage-point
increase in net intent for interested
consumers vs cautious consumers
+1 to +9 –/+1
For vaccinated consumers vs those interested in receiving the vaccine
Net intent2
Net intent2
Vaccinated
Interested Difference Vaccinated
Interested Difference

Consumers indicate that new digital behaviors developed during
the COVID-19 pandemic will stick
3. Sticky behaviors across
in-home entertainment and
digital wellness
2. Sustained use of novel
purchasing methods
1. Increased online purchasing
+35%
Overall increase in online penetration,
based on credit-card and debit-card spend
~70–80%
of consumers who accelerated their digital
health/wellness engagement say they will
continue post-COVID-19
+60%
growth in restaurant/store curbside pickup
during COVID-19, ~50% expect to continue
using it
Continued digital stickiness
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years; Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-
card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021; Facteus debit-card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021

Online spend penetration has accelerated in the past 12 months
across categories, sustaining April’s peak
+35%
Year-over-year
increase in online
penetration, based on
credit-card and debit-
card spend
19%
18%
20%
27% 27%
25% 25% 25% 24% 24%
28%
29%
26%
Aug
Jan
2020
Feb Mar May
Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2021
+35%
Retail-oriented online credit-card and debit-card spend as percent of total1
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021; Facteus debit-card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021
1 Year-over-year growth of total sales in last 12 months (2/2020–1/2021) compared to total sales in the prior 12 months (2/2019–1/2020); including the following retailer categories: Amazon, apparel, software & electronics, cosmetic stores; pet
shops, home stores, mass stores, club stores, restaurants, grocery stores, drug stores, discount stores.

Retail saw online sales increase during COVID-19; categories with already
high online penetration saw a dramatic spike during April’s lockdowns
37%
81%
48%
2021
(Jan)
Pre-
COVID-19
(Jan/Feb
2020)
Apr 2020
spike
+29%
8%
14% 14%
Pre-
COVID-19
(Jan/Feb
2020)
Apr 2020
spike
2021
(Jan)
+65%
3%
6% 6%
Apr 2020
spike
Pre-
COVID-19
(Jan/Feb
2020)
2021
(Jan)
+112%
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021; Facteus debit-card spend data from 2/2019–1/2021
1“High online penetration retail categories” includes those with >20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration, i.e., apparel, software & electronics, cosmetic stores; pet shops.
2 “Medium online penetration retail categories” includes those with 7–20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration, i.e., home stores, mass stores, club stores.
3“Low online penetration retail categories” includes those with <7% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration, i.e., restaurants, grocery stores, drug stores, discount stores.
4 Certain retailers (e.g., Amazon) don’t have categories broken down within credit card and debit card data. Amazon is not included in these groupings.
Online sales as a % of overall sales for credit-card and debit-card spend1,2,3,4
High pre-COVID-19 penetration (>20%)1 Moderate pre-COVID-19 penetration (7–20%)2 Low pre-COVID-19 penetration (<7%)3

Consumers expect more digital acceleration in categories such as
apparel, consumer electronics, and pet supplies
Greater online presence
Less-accelerated online shift Sustained shift to online
Net intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191,3
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
1 Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
2 Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “yes” for the category.
3 Thresholds of categories are defined by the tercile. The first tercile of intent occurs at 18%, and the second occurs at 26%.
75
12 25
20
15
9 16 27
10 21 42
11 13 14 17 18 19
45
65
22 23 37
24 26 28 29
80
30 35
31 43
32
55
33 34 36 38 39 40 41 44
30
35
50
Food takeout & delivery
Home decor & furniture Pet supplies
Groceries
Alcoholic beverages
Apparel
Household supplies
Pet-care services
Kitchen
Accessories
Home improvement
Personal-care services
Fitness & wellness services
Sports & outdoors equipment
Skin care & makeup
Jewelry
Footwear
Entertainment out of home
Adventures & tours
Books
Tobacco products
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicines
Toys & baby supplies

Intent to use after COVID-191
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
Consumers say most food-related pickup and delivery works; social
shopping, apps, and plug-ins have a smaller but loyal following
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “just started using since coronavirus started”; “using more since coronavirus started"; “using less since coronavirus started” or “using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.”
~60–70% of
consumers expect
to continue digital
activities with
COVID-19
acceleration
~45–55% of
consumers expect
to continue digital
activities with
more disruptive
growth during
COVID-19
82
26 68
28 84
38
32 52
30
25
74
34
30
36
15
60
46
40 42
20
44 48 50 54
40
56
45
58 62 64 66 70
50
72 76 78 80
0
35
5
10
Restaurant delivery
Meal-kit delivery
Buy online for
in-store pickup
Deal-finding plug-ins
Purchased from social media
In-store self-checkout
Quick-serve
restaurant
drive-thru
Grocery delivery
Restaurant
curbside pickup
Store curbside
pickup New store/restaurant app
Purchased pre-owned products online
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
COVID-19 acceleration
Disruptive growth
User growth: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+

44
38 52
50
42
40
40
48
50
60
46 54 56 72
58 60 62 64 66 68
0
70 74 76 78 80
10
20
30
Digital exercise machine
Used social media
Video chat: personal
Telemedicine: mental
TikTok
Online streaming
Online fitness
Videoconferencing: professional
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Telemedicine: physical
Wellness app
Playing online games
Watching e-sports
Cooked regularly
Personal care /
grooming at home
1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2 Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “Just started using since coronavirus started”; “using more since coronavirus started”; “using less since coronavirus started” or “using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.”
Online entertainment and wellness habits adopted during
the crisis are likely to remain for the medium to long term
COVID-19 emphasized
COVID-19 acceleration
Disruptive growth
~65–80% of
consumers expect
to continue current
level of digital
wellness and
interactive online
entertainment
accelerated during
COVID-19
Limited shift with
COVID-19
~45–55% of
consumers expect
to continue current
level of remote
communication,
learning, health
platforms with
disruptive
COVID-19 growth
Intent to use after COVID-191
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
User growth: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2

Consumers have made many investments in their homes that will
have long-term effects
1 Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 36% answered “none of these.”
Renovated/remodeled my home
Went back to school
Worked more from home
Moved into a bigger home
Decided to change jobs
4%
Permanently moved to a new city
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Set up a gym at home
Bought a car
Reassessed my investment portfolio
Permanently moved the suburbs
Bought a property
Got a new pet at home (e.g. dog, cat)
Sold a property
Moved into a smaller home
13%
4%
Permanently moved to the countryside
24%
7%
5%
12%
10%
12%
3%
6%
12%
5%
4%
6%
5%
13%
Permanently moved in with family
Pet adoption 13%
House move 19%
Home
renovation
28%
Investments/
Divestments
26%
Changes made in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
Work/study
change
32%
Rebalancing of homebody economy

However, consumers indicate eagerness to return to out-of-home
activities post-COVID-19
7
17
25
20
16
17
16
30
23
17
8
6
13
23
18
13
15
18
13
14
14
29
13
16
17
15
16
14
11
13
16
18
21
11
Tobacco products
Groceries
Apparel
Quick-service restaurant
Home & furniture
Food takeout & delivery
Restaurant
Jewelry
Footwear
Accessories
Toys & baby
Household supplies
Skin care & makeup
Sports & outdoors
Home improvement & garden
Kitchen & dining
Decrease Increase
Stay the same
7
7
13
16
19
16
16
16
13
8
20
19
11
19
19
18
20
18
11
13
13
12
14
32
19
24
18
32
17
32
33
38
37
38
30
32
Pet-care services
Vehicles
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Out-of-home entertainment
Entertainment at home
Pet food & supplies
Books/magazines/newspapers
Fitness & wellness
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Short-term home rentals
Travel by car
Cruises
Adventures & tours
International flights
Hotel/resort stays
Domestic flights
Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: –15 to 0 Net intent: Below – 15 Categories with net intent >10%
Expected spending per category post-COVID-19 compared to during COVID-191
% of respondents
Net
intent2
Net
intent2
11% 5%
-10% 0%
-6% -4%
13% -5%
-4% 16%
0%
3%
-13%
8%
-7%
4%
-1%
25%
4%
13%
0%
21%
-7%
18%
0%
18%
8%
20%
-4%
10%
14%
-4% 7%
6%
-3%
Rebalancing of homebody economy
1 Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to
100% because of rounding.

Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started1,2
% of respondents
More than 75 percent of Americans have tried a new shopping
behavior during the pandemic, and the trend continues in 2021
Evolution of loyalty
40%
39%
34%
29%
26%
Private label/store brand
New shopping method3
Different brand
Different retailer/store/website
New digital shopping method
1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 23% consumers selected “none of these.”
2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before
coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
4 “Growth” is indicated by numbers greater than 1x (i.e., 1x indicates no growth, 1.1x indicates 10% growth).
5 Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
Growth since
Aug. 20204
44% vs. 35%
more millennials/Gen Z have tried a
new brand than baby boomers6
77%
of consumers
have tried a
new shopping
behavior
84%
of millennials and
Gen Z have tried
a new shopping
behavior6
Intent to
continue5
1x
1x
1.1x
1.2x
1.2x
76%
78%
79%
81%
81%

Value was the main driver of consumers’ switching brands, but they
also switched for reasons of purpose, quality, and novelty
1 Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Over-arching reason
based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group.
2 Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996.
40%
38%
16%
13%
42%
17%
9%
11%
11%
24%
18%
24%
17%
19%
16%
26%
19%
Wanted to try a new brand I found
The company treats its employees well
Is more sustainable/better for the environment
Better value
Better prices/promotions
Shares my values
Supporting local businesses
Better shipping/delivery cost
Wanted to treat myself
Larger package sizes
Products are in stock
Better quality
Is natural/organic
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Is available where I’m shopping (i.e., in store or online)
Is cleaner/safer
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
42%
of millennials/
Gen Z cite
purpose as a
primary reason2
44%
of millennials/
Gen Z cite
quality/organic as
a primary reason2
Net % of respondents per category
X%
Value 65%
Quality/organic 34%
Availability 42%
Convenience 26%
Purpose-driven 34%
Novelty 33%
Health/hygiene 16%
Personal choice 28%

During COVID-19, brands from larger companies grew more initially,
but smaller companies now play an increased role in growth
Share of sales, %
Source: Nielsen
$14B
$10B
$548B $14B
1 Nielsen xAOC, super categories excluding alcohol, tobacco, fresh, and general merchandise.
2 Companies with yearly sales are Large > $2.5B; Medium <$2.5B but >$500M; Small <$500M.
3“CY 2018” is calendar year growth from 2017–2018; “CY 2019” is calendar year growth from 2018–2019.
4 Year-over-year growth for 4 weeks ending March 21, 2020, August 8, 2020, and Feb 20, 2021.
$5B
Share of year-over-year dollar sales growth of consumer packaged goods products
by company size,1,2 %
51
32 34
54
42 44
14 12
14 16
18
30 28
16 34
33
18
35 33
18
10 8
CY 20183 February 20214
August 20204
2019
3 4
CY 20193 March 20204
$4B
Small
Retailer brands Medium Large

Source: McKinsey 2020–21 Global Sentiment Survey
Trade-off behavior in a standard shopping basket among all consumers by
income tier1
% of consumers, September 2020 and September 2019
>$100K
$50K–$100K
<$50K
US income tiers, household, annual
6
18
4
3
3
17
6
3
3
10
6
10
1 Q: Please indicate how your buying behavior has changed in a standard shopping basket for the items shown in the past 12 months (since September 2019). Select all that apply with option 7 being mutually exclusive and option 1 exclusive from
option 2. Possible answers: 1) “Switching to less expensive brands”; 2) “Switching to more expensive / premium brands”; 3) “Buying the same brand as I bought 12 months ago, but at stores with lower prices”; 4) “Buying only when on sale or
with coupon”; 5) “Buying less frequently of lower quantity of the same brand”; 6)“Have made some other change in how I buy these products”; 7)“Have not made changes in how I buy these products.” Trade down reflects option 1 as a
percentage of all consumers, while trade up reflects option 2 as a percentage of all consumers.
Total
4
16
5
5
3.65X
While trade-down increased across income groups, trade-up increased
as well for consumers with over $100,000 in household income
2019
2020
Trade down
Trade up

Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do
not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information
has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and
subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no
representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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