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1Copyright or confidentiality statement.

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Trust and the Consumer
Decision Journey
Dave Elzinga

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3McKinsey & Company
The continuously changing
Consumer Decision Journey:
keep up with your customers
1

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4McKinsey & Company 4McKinsey & Company
McKinsey first introduced the Consumer Decision Journey (CDJ) in 2009 to
address changing consumer behaviors in a digital age
MOMENT
OF
PURCHASE
INITIAL
CONSIDERATION
SET
TRIGGER
What the Consumer Decision
Journey (CDJ) did differently
▪ …introduced the trigger concept…
consumers are not always in a
decision-making mode
▪ …introduced the concept of an Initial
Consideration Set (ICS) of brands in the
mind of the consumer at the point of trigger
▪ …accounted for a more iterative vs.
narrowing consideration set – Brands move
in and out of consideration
▪ …analyzed online and offline touchpoints
on a level playing field (e.g., word-of-mouth, in-
store experiences, social media, traditional
advertising, etc.)

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5McKinsey & Company
The CDJ framework is focused on four key battlegrounds and provides critical
insights to inform marketing and MROI objectives
Consumer
considers
an initial set
of brands
Consider
Ultimately the
consumer
selects a brand
at the moment
of purchase
Decide
After purchase, a formative experience that builds
biases to inform their next decision journey
Experience
Brands enter and exit consideration set
at any point up to purchase
Evaluate
MOMENT
OF
PURCHASE
INITIAL
CONSIDERATION
SET
TRIGGER

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6McKinsey & Company
CDJ provides deep insights that lead to tangible actions
T H E R I G H T
E X P E R I E N C E
4
Great customer service
Personalization
Integrated digital and
offline experience
T H E R I G H T
M O M E N T S
1
Initial Consideration
Active Evaluation
Loyalty Loop
T H E R I G H T
M E S S A G E S
2
Emotional dimensions:
Trust, confidence,
smart decision
Rational dimensions:
Price, convenience, taste
T H E R I G H T
T O U C H P O I N T S
3
TV advertising
Direct mail
Banner ad
Social media
Mobile
T H E R I G H T C A PA B I L I T I E S
5
Teams work together to drive growth: Marketing, Finance, E-Commerce, Sales, Agencies

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7McKinsey & Company
We live in a shopping world
where every purchase is up
for grabs
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8McKinsey & Company
Since 2009, the Consumer Decision Journey has covered over
125,000 consumers across 350+ brands in 30 different industries
SOURCE: McKinsey CDJ data 2008-2017
Financial and insurance companies (e.g., core banking, wealth management,
insurance)
Geographies studied
Consumer electronics and telecom companies
AutomotiveConsumer goods
Retailers Travel

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9McKinsey & Company
CDJ has unlocked key insights on the consumer’s changing behavior
Every purchase
is up
for grabs
We live in a
shopping world,
where loyalty is
elusive
Getting in early
matters most
Across categories, 58% of
consumers switch brands from one
purchase cycle to the next
Almost 70% of brand winners come
from the initial consideration set27 of 30 categories are shopping
driven (i.e., consumers repurchase
without considering other brands)

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10McKinsey & Company
We live in a shopping world
Shopping
driven
Loyalty
driven
VS
Financial
services: new
funds Auto
insurance
Mobile
carriers
Personal
care retail
CerealBath
accesssories
TabletsCruise
lines
LaptopsFinancial
services:
new
products
Personal
computers
AutosShoe
retail
Cosmetics Telecom
handsets
Women’s
clothing
Printers
Small
kitchen
Tabletop
retail
Share of
purchases

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Increase in shopping has been driven by the availability of
digital information … people may even feel obligated to shop
The digital world provides consumers with
access to nearly unlimited information
Digital apps
Social media
Evolving
technologies
Expanding
number of
buying options
54% of online and 39% of
in-store purchasers
read online reviews
46% of global shoppers
purchased via mobile
77% online shoppers use
their smartphone as
part of the process

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12McKinsey & Company
With 87% of consumers shopping, every purchase is up for grabs
13%
LOYALISTS
(REPURCHASE
THE BRAND
WITHOUT
SHOPPING)
87%
SHOPPED
AROUND
IN TOTAL, 42%
STUCK WITH
INCUMBENT
BRAND
58%
WERE TEMPTED
AWAY: SWITCHERS
29%
VULNERABLE
REPURCHASERS
(SHOPPED BUT
WENT BACK TO
THEIR PREVIOUS
BRAND)
Consumers1
100%
SOURCE: CDJ data 2008-2016; Shopping Categories
1 Excludes consumers in categories characterized by loyalty: auto insurance,
investments, and mobile carriers

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13McKinsey & Company 13McKinsey & Company
It is critical to be among the brands considered in the earliest part
of the journey
MOMENT
OF
PURCHASE
INITIAL
CONSIDERATION
SET
TRIGGER
of winning brands are
chosen at the
beginning of the
journey (ICS) – when
a consumer is first
triggered to shop
69%

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Know your Customer
Growth Indicator
and manage it to drive
growth
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Introducing the Customer Growth Indicator (CGI), a simple, forward-looking,
and highly predictive measure of a brand’s ability to grow
% of respondents
including the
brand in Initial
Consideration Set
Customer Growth
Indicator (CGI)
100
Market share
of the brand

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16McKinsey & Company
The CGI provides a view of likely future performance
relative to competitive set
10
35
15
30
10 250
200
70
180
110
7
39
27
60
25Company A
Company C
Company B
Company D
Company E
Positioned for
stronger relative
growth
Higher risk for
impending
market share loss
CGI dynamics, Illustrative industry example
Market share
% of current brand owners
ICS Score
% of respondents
Customer Growth Indicator
Ratio of ICS to Market Share
ILLUSTRATIVE

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Category
distribution
of r2 values,
number of
industries1
Lower
correlation
Higher
correlation
CGI and growth are highly correlated
SOURCE: McKinsey CDJ studies across categories and countries from 2008-2016
1 r2 is the proportion or percentage of variance explained by a regression; analyses are based on survey results. Excludes loyalty categories (Mobile Carriers and Auto Insurance)
2. Calculated as growth to ICS/market-share ratio; includes 17 shopping-driven categories; excludes 3 loyalty-driven categories and 10 shopping driven categories for which data were unavailable
0
150
0
-50
2.5
ICS/Market Share, Ratio
Growth
rate2
Percent
R2 = 93% R2 = 80%
40
-20
2.50 2.5
-20
0
0
40
R2 = 68%
Auto Personal Computers Cosmetics
The CGI
explains
more than
60% of the
variance in
growth for
most
categories

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There are three ways marketers can use the insights from CGI to drive growth
Expand view of potential
customers
Create innovative product /
service, customer
experience, and brand
communication
Re-allocate marketing
spend to drive initial
consideration

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Trust is foundational to
success throughout the
Consumer Decision
Journey
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A BRAND THAT…
connects me with others // has a good website // has a low price // has good advertising // has good functional
features // has great customer experience // has high energy // has superior technology // has the best
partnerships // I have a relationship with // inspires discovery / adventure / spontaneity // is a great value for
money // is a smart choice // is a status symbol // is aesthetically pleasing / is stylish // is approachable // is
classic / has tradition / heritage // is craft / authentic // is cutting edge / innovative // is easy to shop // is easy to
use // is fair // is flexible // is fun // is high quality // is hip / cool / trendy // is involved In the community // is
reliable / dependable // is reputable / recommended // is sophisticated // is straightforward / transparent // is
versatile // is widely used // meets my needs // personalizes / tailors product or service // provides choice /
optionality // provides emotional security / peace of mind // provides pleasure / enjoyment / satisfaction //
provides rewards / incentives / perks // reflects my personality // that stands out // values its customers
Tested 43 equity themes as potential
drivers of inclusion at Initial
Consideration

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Trust is critical to gaining entry into the ICS
NOTE: Indexed importance of brand equity theme based on correlation with inclusion at ICS SOURCE: McKinsey CDJ studies across categories and countries 2008-2016
Trust-related
dimensions
A brand that…
Trust-related
dimensions
consistently rise
to the top
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10
#1
#21
#28
#31
#43
is reliable/ dependable
meets my needs
is high quality
I have a relationship with
connects me with others
values its customers
personalizes / tailors product or service
is easy to use
is sophisticated
is a great value for money
is easy to shop
has a low price
has good functional features
has a good website
Below
average
correlation
at ICS
100
92
78
77
71
65
60
59
59
58
#13
#16
is approachable
is fair
56
53
48
43
42
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////

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Maintain trust throughout the Consumer Decision Journey
Nurture trust in active evaluation
Reinforce trust at
moment of purchase
$$$MOMENT
OF
PURCHASE
INITIAL
CONSIDERATION
SET
TRIGGER
Deliver on trust with a great
post purchase experience

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23McKinsey & Company
So what can we do as marketers to win in this digital world?
Keep up with the
consumer by
understanding the
changing
Consumer
Decision Journey
1
Get into the Initial
Consideration Set
with the right
message, the right
touchpoints and
the right
experience
2
Know our
Customer Growth
Indicator (CGI)
and manage it for
growth
3
Establish, nurture,
and deliver on
Trust throughout
the Consumer
Decision Journey
4

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24McKinsey & Company
Stay connected
Dave Elzinga
Partner, Chicago
David_Elzinga@mckinsey.com
linkedin.com/in/daveelzinga/
@McK_MktgSales