2. 2 chess matches
2005: Freestyle chess tournament
1997: Deep Blue defeats
Kasparov
Amateurs plus PCs 1st , grandmaster
plus PC 2nd, grandmaster 3rd
3. This is an astonishing result: average
men, average machines beating the
best man, the best machine.
Computer amplify power of grandmaster
How much?
Computer amplify power of amateurs
How much?
simple linear amplification? A(h,c) = hc
5. Artificial Intelligence
Science of making computers do things that require intelligence
when done by humans.
Turing test
6. Intelligence Augmentation
In 1963 Douglas Engelbart formed the Augmentation
Research Center to pursue a radically different goal to AI
— designing a computing system that would instead
“bootstrap” the human intelligence of small groups of
scientists and engineers.
September 17, 2012
Scientists have implanted a chip inside the
brains of rhesus monkeys and seen their
decision making and thinking improve
Journal of Neural Engineering, the paper, by researchers at Wake Forest Baptist Medical
Center and the University of Southern California
7. Intelligence Amplification
Intelligence amplification* (IA) refers to the effective use of
information technology in augmenting human intelligence. The
theory was developed in the 1950s and 1960s by cybernetics
and early computer pioneers.
Other methods
Memory and IT
brain training
*AKA “cognitive augmentation” and “machine augmented intelligence”
8. Intelligence Amplification
Started with augmenting our physical abilities
Tools
Then our „intelligence‟…
Language for communications
Number systems
Writing to record
Reading to retrieve
9. Intelligence
Artificial Ask a question
Amplification Wait for answer
Intelligence
Ask a related question
Get answer
Refine question
Get improved answer
12. What do we need?
Reduce HCI friction
Big amounts of data
IA
Correct data
Processing power
Analytics
Learning
13. Reduce Friction in Human-
Computer Symbiosis:
Kasparov on Chess
Weak human + Strong
machine +
Superior computer
better process to alone
Weak human + Strong human +
machine +
Superior machine +
better process to inferior process
22. Helping us make decisions
Business
BI, data mining
Improving HCI
Weather forecasting
Processing, satellites, history
Medical research
Gamers decipher structure of
a key protein
23. Social data
Mobile apps
Foursquare sends location data to
two third parties: Google and Twitter
Angry Birds sends phone ID, location,
and contacts to Google and Flurry.
28. “The question is not, 'What is the answer?' The question is, 'What
is the question?'" One of the main aims of man-computer
symbiosis is to bring the computing machine effectively into the
formulative parts of technical problems.”
Kenny Solomon, 32 - A Mitchells Plain father who grew up in the township and played his first game of chess at 13, has become South Africa’s first chess grandmaster 20121997: Deep Blue defeats Kasparov2005: Amateurs plus PCs win freestyle chess tournament The second game was a freestyle chess tournament in 2005, in which man and machine could enter together as partners, rather than adversaries, if they so chose. At first, the results were predictable. Even a supercomputer was beaten by a grandmaster with a relatively weak laptop. The surprise came at the end. Who won? Not a grandmaster with a supercomputer, but actually two American amateurs using three relatively weak laptops. Their ability to coach and manipulate their computers to deeply explore specific positions effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge of the grandmasters and the superior computational power of other adversaries.
So in classic intelligence amplification fashion, having computer programs that can quickly evaluate a move’s likelihood of success can amplify the power of the Grandmaster.While empirically true, it does beg the question: how much does it amplify the power of the Grandmaster?One approximation might be product as a simple linear amplification. Let’s imagine a function, a(h,c), in which the analytic power (a) is the product of power of the human (h) and the computing power of the chess engine being used (c). This gives us the equation:A(h,c)= hcLinera?We’ll return to this later
Before we continue, look at AI and Intelligence Augmentation (Cyborgs)
The Turing test involves a computer, a human interrogator and a human foil. The interrogator attempts to determine, by asking questions of the other two participants, which is the computer. All communication is via keyboard and screen. The interrogator may ask questions as penetrating and wide-ranging as he or she likes, and the computer is permitted to do everything possible to force a wrong identification. (So smart moves for the computer would be to say 'No' in response to 'Are you a computer?' and to follow a request to multiply one huge number by another with a long pause and an incorrect answer.) The foil must help the interrogator to make a correct identification. A number of different people play the roles of interrogator and foil, and if sufficiently many interrogators are unable to distinguish the computer from the human being then it is to be concluded that the computer thinks.
Intelligence Augmentation now used to refer to physical augmentation
Other than IT to enhanceDefinition of MNEMONIC1: assisting or intended to assist memory; also: of or relating to mnemonics
Wecan think of it in this way
How do humans weigh up against computers?Sight, hearing, touch, taste, smellHuman memory notoriously selective
Need for what?For a way for us amplify our intelligence?Hypothesis is that we are succeeding with the last 5 from using technology.It’s the first one that’s the biggest challenge
"Man-Computer Symbiosis" is a key speculative paper published in 1960 by psychologist/computer scientistJ.C.R. Licklider, which envisions that mutually-interdependent, "living together", tightly-coupled human brains and computing machines would prove to complement each other's strengths to a high degree:Man-computer symbiosis is a subclass of man-machine systems. There are many man-machine systems. At present, however, there are no man-computer symbioses. The purposes of this paper are to present the concept and, hopefully, to foster the development of man-computer symbiosis by analyzing some problems of interaction between men and computing machines, calling attention to applicable principles of man-machine engineering, and pointing out a few questions to which research answers are needed. The hope is that, in not too many years, human brains and computing machines will be coupled together very tightly, and that the resulting partnership will think as no human brain has ever thought and process data in a way not approached by the information-handling machines we know today.Licklider, J.C.R., "Man-Computer Symbiosis", IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, vol. HFE-1, 4-11, Mar 1960. Eprint
What does this mean for our simple equation? Well, it looks it’s missing a term, one we’ll call f, that describes the efficiency or friction of the interface between human and computer.Quoting Kasparov again:Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process. The implication being that the equation actually looks like this:
So if you want to improve human-computer symbiosis, what can you do? You can start by designing the human into the process. Instead of thinking about what a computer will do to solve the problem, design the solution around what the human will do as well. When you do this, you'll quickly realize that you spent all of your time on the interface between man and machine, specifically on designing away the friction in the interaction. In fact, this friction is more important than the power of the man or the power of the machine in determining overall capability. That's why two amateurs with a few laptops handily beat a supercomputer and a grandmaster. What Kasparov calls process is a byproduct of friction. The better the process, the less the friction. And minimizing friction turns out to be the decisive variable.
Big data Every cell phone movement, never mind call leads to data, transactions, computer, tablet also.Twitter, facebook
The point is that we have all this data - transient and stored. We have the ability to manage big data.Our analytics engines are fantastic. Data accuracy is improving through technology and user involvement.
Need to say little about these – these are just steaming ahead
Watson plays JeopardyWatson learnsThese are examples of how well we’re doing at processing, analytics, data …
Watson plays JeopardyWatson learns
Current examples
Societal data, data about society – many aspects, what’s happening, where we are, what we’re doing, the weather, development, economics, The SIM card sends its unique IMSI number - standing for International Mobile Subscriber Identity. This starts with the country code of the user's account, followed by the network code and finally the telephone number.The second number is the IMEI - International Mobile Equipment Identity. This is the number of the handset and remains constant even if the SIM card is changed.
Weather data plus location of people = better disaster prep and response We (humans) have got it all – we just need to be able to put it all together.
Shown that all the last 5 are well on their wayWhat we’ve succeeded with is:"How do I store this data? How do I search this data? How do I process this data?" These are necessary but insufficient questions. The imperative is not to figure out how to compute, but what to compute. How do you impose human intuition on data at this scale?
The point is that we have all this data - transient and stored. We have the ability to manage big data.Our analytics engines are fantastic. Data accuracy is improving through technology and user involvement.Processing power, the algorithms and ‘learning’ ability all improving, some according to Moore’s law.Imagine the perfect computer. Then imagine how we interact with it.Imagine how a policy-maker interacts with it.Imagine how a judge interacts with it?Imagine how a disaster manager interacts with it.It’s also the qquestions? Not just the answers
Judges’ intelligence amplified by computerDoctors’Policy-makers
In this disaster management control centre, the humans are asking all the questions. Maybe there are checklists of previous questions.Where are the new questions coming from?Where else can we use IA?What will we have in 20 years?What will be the role of the human in 20 years?