Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is going to be the longest health crisis ever being suffered in the modern times. The pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and international trade. More than 100 countries are closing their national borders and the movement of people has come to a screeching halt. The pause in the movement of people is greatly affecting the world economy, as people are staying indoors and major industrial productions has come to a grounding halt. According to an analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social affairs, the global economy could shrink by upto 1% in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic which is lower than the previous forecast of 2.5% growth. The UN also added that the global economy could contract even further if restrictions on economic activities are extended without any adequate fiscal responses.
The coronavirus pandemic is affecting the overall growth of global economy. Some industries are booming in the event of crisis such as Technology, Entertainment industry. Entertainment industry with strong digital presence like Netflix, Amazon prime and technology companies aiding the operations of workplace like videocalling app Zoom are growing significantly in this crisis. Sectors like Groceries, Sanitary & cleaning, Food and beverages, Wholesaling are set to increase due to the pandemic. The corona virus scare has created a huge awareness on hand washing and there is a growing consumers’ inclination towards disinfectants and sanitary products. While some industries are growing with new opportunities, some are stalled and reeling under the lockdown. Tourism and travel industry are completely out of business due to social distancing and travel restrictions. Almost 100 countries over the world have closed their borders and airports have been shut-down for passengers. The airline companies, tourism related business are losing revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Manufacturing sectors are also being closed and the productions are paused due to workers being quarantined in their homes. The agriculture sector is experiencing shortage of labor and fall in agricultural commodity prices. Banking and financial institution will be having hard time in collecting their dues and will be renegotiating credit terms. Banks also won’t be able to gain new deposits during this crisis and thereby affecting its earnings.
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CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) IMPACT ON VARIOUS INDUSTRIES & POTENTIAL PATHS OF RECOVERY l By Mirdul Amin Sarkar l Market Research Universe
1. About Us
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
IMPACT ON VARIOUS
INDUSTRIES
&
POTENTIAL PATHS OF
RECOVERY
-----------------------------------
Research Article- Authored by
Mirdul Amin Sarkar (Research Manager)
Tamilarasi T (Research Analyst)
Copyright @ Market Research Universe
www.marketresearchuniverse.com
2. 2
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
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3. 3
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is going to be the longest health crisis ever being suffered in
the modern times. The pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and international trade. More than
100 countries are closing their national borders and the movement of people has come to a screeching
halt. The pause in the movement of people is greatly affecting the world economy, as people are staying
indoors and major industrial productions has come to a grounding halt. According to an analysis by the
UN Department of Economic and Social affairs, the global economy could shrink by upto 1% in 2020 due
to the coronavirus pandemic which is lower than the previous forecast of 2.5% growth. The UN also
added that the global economy could contract even further if restrictions on economic activities are
extended without any adequate fiscal responses.
The coronavirus pandemic is affecting the overall growth of global economy. Some industries are
booming in the event of crisis such as Technology, Entertainment industry. Entertainment industry with
strong digital presence like Netflix, Amazon prime and technology companies aiding the operations of
workplace like videocalling app Zoom are growing significantly in this crisis. Sectors like Groceries,
Sanitary & cleaning, Food and beverages, Wholesaling are set to increase due to the pandemic. The
corona virus scare has created a huge awareness on hand washing and there is a growing consumers’
inclination towards disinfectants and sanitary products. While some industries are growing with new
opportunities, some are stalled and reeling under the lockdown. Tourism and travel industry are
completely out of business due to social distancing and travel restrictions. Almost 100 countries over the
world have closed their borders and airports have been shut-down for passengers. The airline
companies, tourism related business are losing revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Manufacturing
sectors are also being closed and the productions are paused due to workers being quarantined in their
homes. The agriculture sector is experiencing shortage of labor and fall in agricultural commodity prices.
Banking and financial institution will be having hard time in collecting their dues and will be
renegotiating credit terms. Banks also won’t be able to gain new deposits during this crisis and thereby
affecting its earnings.
4. 4
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Positively and Negatively Affected Industries by Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Positively Impacted Industries Negatively Impacted Industries
Digital Products (IT) Travel & Tourism
Health care Aviation
Insurance Hospitality
E-commerce Live Sports
Retail (Essential retailers) Oil and Gas
Gig Economy Real Estate
Stock Market Investing Mining
Online Coaching and Training Utilities
Mental Health Automotive
Alternate Energy (Renewable Energy) Agriculture
Alternate Medicine Film Industry
Gaming Logistics
Affiliate Marketing Restaurants
Data Sciences Luxury Products
Events & Conferences
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact Index by Industry
High Medium Low
Aviation
Travel & Tourism
Oil and Gas
Metal and Mining
Transportation
Infrastructure
Universities & Colleges
Manufacturing
Restaurants & Bars
Real Estate
Automotive
Live Sports
Technology
Financial Institutions
Structured Finance
Public Finance
Health Care
Telecoms
Utilities
Media & Entertainment
Chemicals
Insurance
Capital goods
Sovereign
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
5. 5
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
POTENTIAL RECOVERY PATHS FROM COVID-19 PANDEMIC
The COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic crisis could recover in the potential paths such as U, V or L
shaped curve. The V shaped curve represents the return of the GDP to the earlier pre-crisis level after a dip in
the growth rate. The U-shaped path is when the actual growth rate falls and recovers to the pre-crisis level, but
the GDP remains below the previous trend. The L-shaped path is when the growth rate declines and remains
below the earlier level for a prolonged period. The GDP falls substantially below the pre-crisis trend and stays
there.
Three Potential Paths to Recovery from Coronavirus (COVID-19)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2019 2020 2021 2022
U- shaped
V- shaped
L-shaped
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
60% Probability
15% Probability
3 Potential Paths to Recovery from Coronavirus (COVID-19)
25% Probability
GDP (2019=100)
6. 6
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
What the economy is facing now is completely
different from what happened in 2008 recession.
The problem in 2008 was a banking crisis as there
was too much bad debt but what the economy
facing now in 2020 is severe disruption in economic
activity as we are stalling operations of everything
from manufacturing to services. Though it is unlikely
the present recession to go into depression as the
economic inactivity is likely to persist only for a short
time and may resume after the corona virus is
contained and are in controllable levels. How long
the economic inactivity persists, and other indicators
like distress in credit market, inflation rate and
bankruptcies will determine the recovery of the
global economy.
According to Market Research Universe, the
potential path to recovery is expected to be u-
shaped curve with 60% probability. As the economy
is experiencing both demand and supply shock, the
growth rate is expected to recover slowly post the
pandemic period. The growth rate will recover
alongside with the demand as the relaxation on
lockdown measures is likely to create demand.
When lockdown is relaxed, people will start working
on their unfinished business. For example, scheduled
business meetings, planned vacation trips and social
events are more likely to resume after the crisis. But
these will not happen quickly after the lockdown are
lifted as businesses need time to regenerate
sufficient cash flows and revenue to go ahead in
making important decisions. Therefore, the growth
potential is expected to remain lower than the pre-
crisis level as there will be significant business
failures, unemployment and losses during the
pandemic. The return to earlier growth trend poses
challenges as the operations of business are
expected to drastically change in the coming years.
Many companies may go bankrupt and the
management’s operations will be distracted by
focusing on securing employment. New business
expansion plans will be postponed. Time to rebuild
the credit facilities, re-establishing client or
consumer relationships and rehiring employees after
layoffs is expected to delay the growth pace.
Moreover, even if the lockdowns are lifted social
distancing, limits on travelling is likely to continue. It
is unlikely that almost all restaurants, hotels can
operate at half capacity. For instance, South Korea is
a great example in observing the recovery path, as
the country still imposing restrictions in social
gatherings and schools being postponed. These
restrictions are therefore likely to slow down the
growth rate from recovering.
7. 7
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
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-Business Strategy Manager in MNC or any
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-Investor in various industries?
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impacting your business a lot then this is the right
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Contact Details:
Email: explore@marketresearchuniverse.com
mirdul@marketresearchuniverse.com
Contact: +91-9871387806 / 9811025630
Web: www.marketresearchuniverse.com
&
8. 8
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
IMPACT OF CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19) ON VARIOUS INDUSTRIES
Healthcare: COVID-19 Impact on Health Care Industry
The health Care industry is experiencing surge in demand for medical supplies due to the pandemic. The
demand for essential medical supplies like Masks, protective clothing, hand sanitizers, ventilators are expected
to grow enormously. As major countries have expanded their production capacity, the market for medical
supplies is expected to grow. According to MARGMA, the demand for medical gloves is expected to jump from
298 billion pieces in 2019 to 345 billion pieces in 2020.
Testing kits for COVID-19 is on huge demand after
the virus started to spread rapidly across the world.
According to Market Research Universe, COVID-19
Testing Kits market is expected to grow with a rapid
pace over the forecast period. Medical device
producers have expanded their production levels of
corona virus kit to meet the increasing demand. The
market for Hydroxychloroquine is also expected to
expand significantly in the coming years as the drug
is believed to cure Corona Virus. As per the study,
the Hydroxychloroquine is expected to grow over
30% in the next few years.
The telehealth service segment is expected to
benefit from the ongoing pandemic as hospitals are
treating corona virus affected patients as their
priority. Other sick patients may switch to telehealth
service as they will avoid going to hospitals during
the lockdown.
Various governments across the world are
encouraging healthcare apps to aid the general
public in assessing their risk during the pandemic. In
India, the government with the public private
partnership built an app called AarogyaSetu which
will help public in identifying the risk of getting
affected by the Corona Virus.
298
345
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
2019 2020e
Global Demand for Rubber Gloves (in Bn units)
Source: MARGMA, Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
9. 9
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
According to the market study by Market Research
Universe, investments in orphan drugs are expected
to grow due to the pandemic. Global orphan drugs
market is expected to grow during the next few
years. The present healthcare crisis is expected to
change the investment trend in healthcare
particularly in R&D activities in communicable
diseases. Moreover, in the light of present health
crisis, the World Medical Association has stressed
the importance of producing medical supplies in the
home country as the global market is dependent on
limited manufacturers.
Therefore the overall health care industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% in the coming years as the
present health crisis due to pandemic is expected to restructure the health care sector.
Finance and Insurance
Financial institutions are majorly impacted by the fall
in demand for loans as consumers spending rate is
slumped drastically. Credit card issuers are expected
to have lower transaction volumes due to reduced
consumer spending. Moreover, interest rate cuts in
major central banks are expected to disrupt the
revenue growth of the financial institutions.
Companies involving in investment banking will see
reduced initial public underwriting due to market
volatility and therefore their revenues will take toll.
Many firms have postponed their plans of going
public due to market volatility makes deals difficult
to price.
However, open end mutual funds, exchange traded
funds, fixed income assets have become attractive
to investors in this time of crisis. Many financial
asset investors have moved their large part of their
funds into fixed income assets, exchange traded
funds and other safe havens like gold, US treasury
and US dollars.
8450 9126
10586,16
12279,95
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Global Health Care Industry Forecast (in USD billion)
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
10. 10
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Gold Price Trends
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
Gold prices have been increasing in last three months as investors started diversifying their stock heavy
portfolio. According to World Gold Council, global gold-backed ETFs added 298 tones in the first quarter of
2020 which is said to be the largest tonnage additions since 2016.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Gold price (USD per 100 oz gold)
Gold price
3228,6
3584,57
3907,19
4258,83
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Global Health Insurance Market Forecast (in USD Billion)
11. 11
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
In Insurance sector, Health Insurance market is said to grow at a CAGR of 9% in the coming years. People are
increasingly inquiring about health policies in the light of the pandemic. Many insured people are reaching out
to insurers to inquire about whether their policy covers COVID-19. According to PolicyBazaar, customer
inquiries on their health policies rose nearly 30-40% compared to pre-pandemic.
Information and Technology
The impact of Corona virus in Information and
Technology sector is minimal. Adoption of
technology has become significant in this time of
crisis. Business integrated with digital technology
has better chance of survival. For instance,
restaurants with online delivery service are faring
well during the lockdown. As people are restricted to
gather in large numbers, ordering food online has
increased. Moreover, people are getting used to
buying groceries online. Major online food delivery
companies like Ubereats, Zomato and Swiggy are
delivering groceries during the COVID-19 crisis.
According to Ubereats, the company’s sales went up
about 350% compared with pre-pandemic levels.
The e-commerce companies are expanding their
reach to towns and cities in delivering essential
items and groceries as consumption trends are
shifting more towards online. According to the
analysis of Market Research Universe, the
percentage of online grocery shopping grew from
12% in August 2019 to 33% in March 2020.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
As lockdown is being imposed in many countries to contain the spread of the virus, remote working is
becoming more common among businesses. Many firms which were reluctant to implement work from home
are vigorously implementing these policies due to the lockdown. Work from home has positively impacted the
Information and Technology sector as companies are increasingly adopting cloud based softwares.
12%
33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2019 August 2020 March
Percentage of online grocery shopping in US
12. 12
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
The demand for the cloud based softwares such as Microsoft Teams, Google’s GSuite , Skype for Business are
increasing. The revenue flows for the IT companies are expected to grow around 18% in the medium term due
to increasing adoption of cloud based software.
The techno giants Apple and Google are also launching applications to help identify infection risks during the
pandemic. The two companies announced a system for tracking the spread of corona virus using data through
Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) transmissions and approved apps from health organizations. The pandemic has
made business units to realize the importance of IT expenditure. But however, theIT spending is expected to
buffer and decrease by 2% in the present year 2020 due to the crisis.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
The overall Information and Technology Industry is expected to grow over 7% CAGR in the coming years. As
there will be more businesses entering into the digital world, the market is expected to grow later in the year.
182
215,2
254,0
299,7
353,6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Global Public Cloud Service Revenue Forecast (in Bn USD)
4 3,7
4,5 4,81
5,15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e
Global Information and Technology Industry Forecast (in USD
Trillion)
13. 13
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Utilities
The Utilities sector experiences medium risks as
residential demand is expected to increase in the
next few months. The disruption in supply chain is
also minimal. But there is a overall decline in
demand for electricity from commercial and
industrial segments. The International Energy
Agency estimates that the electricity demand will
decline by around 15%.The prices of crude oil and
thermal coal are expected to drop. The declining
demand for electricity has caused carbon prices in
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to reach 16-
month lows, falling to approximately US$17.70 per
tonne at 18 March. This has reduced the cost of
fossil-fuel generation. However, renewables prices
are also expected to have declined, due to the fall in
oil prices and weak electricity demand.
Table Showing Solar PV Demand Forecast (in GW)
Year 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Solar PV
demand (In GW)
97.7 97.2 100-150 120-123
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
According to the study by Market Research Universe, Global Solar demand is expected to be around 100-150
Gig watts in 2020 which is said to be the first fall in annual capacity additions in the last three decades. Global
wind sector is expected to fare better than solar due to its tight delivery and specialized equipment being
rented for limited time. The global wind capacity development is expected to be around 80 GW in 2021. The
overall Renewable Energy market is expected to slow down due to the pandemic but the post-pandemic
market is expected to grow over a CAGR 5.5% in the coming years.
Mining
The Mining sector is highly globalized and dependent on commodity prices. The curtailment of global
manufacturing activities has led to reduction of commodity prices particularly for copper, crude oil, iron ore
and other industrial commodities. As major mines are all closed due to the pandemic, some mining operators
are experimenting autonomous mining technologies to replace workers. Although autonomous mining
technologies have already being in development, mining operators are increasingly showing interest towards
these technologies after the lockdown as investments are being made in autonomous mining technologies.
The Gold ore mining industry is expected to be positively impacted by the COVID-19 as the crisis has led
investors to look for safe haven in gold and other precious metals. Investors who prefer to reduce their risk
exposure are more likely to diversify their portfolio with gold and other precious metals. The price of gold is
expected to rise as the demand is rising.
14. 14
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Oil and Gas Industry
The industry is hard hit as there is low demand for
oil and gas due to travel restrictions. According to
the International Energy Association, the demand
for global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020
as COVID-19 spreads across the world. There is a
severe supply- demand imbalance and the acute
oversupply of oil will test the limits of crude and oil
storage. Producers are in great pressure to maintain
a positive cash flow and limit spending. The Natural
gas is also trading at its lowest price since March
2016.
The global Oil and gas industry reached around USD
3.3 trillion in 2019. According to Market Research
Universe, the oil and gas industry is expected to
contract in 2020 and rebound sharply in 2021. The
oil demand during 2020 to 2025 is expected to grow
at an average annual rate of just below 1 million
barrels a day. 70% of the demand is expected from
Asia Pacific economies post pandemic. The oil
production capacity is expected to grow around 5
million barrels a day with 60% of it coming from non-
OPEC producers. The production growth in the
United States and other non-OPEC countries is
expected to slow down.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
99,97
100,75
95,52
96,47
97,44
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Total consumption of Oil and other liquid fuels ( in Mn barrels
per day)
15. 15
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Retail
The temporary lockdown of many manufacturing
units is expected to disrupt the supply chain in
retailing. Non-essential retailers are worst hit as they
are expected to close their stores due to new
restrictions. Non-essential retailers with online
stores still take orders and deliver after restrictions
are relaxed. But small non-essential retailers are
expected to be affected badly and may exit. The
wages and number of employees are expected to
decrease in non- essential retail such as clothing
stores layoff staffs due to prolonged lockdown.
Essential retailers like food and beverage retailers,
supermarkets, drugstores are experiencing minimal
risks. In many cases, there is a significant increase in
sale of essential items due to hoarding. According to
the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), there is a
surge in food and drinks as people stockpiled ahead
of quarantine measures, while spending on non-
essential items slumped.
The study notes that the consumer spending is
expected to slow down from 2.5% in 2019 to 2% in
2020. However, online shopping is expected to grow
in the coming years as more number of people are
becoming more comfortable to buy groceries online.
According to the study, percentage of online grocery
spending in US is expected to grow from 6.4% in
2019 to 7.5% in 2020.
According to analysts from Market Research
Universe, supporting smaller retailers, especially
businesses affected by the non-essential activity
restrictions in their loan deferral and easing their
access to additional credit can greatly help the
industry to get back to the growth track.
The overall retail industry is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 12%. As more and more retailers are
expected to go digital and explore e-ecommerce in
the coming years, the industry is expected to grow
significantly.
16. 16
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Aviation
The Aviation industry is severely impacted by the
COVID-19 pandemic as it is losing its revenue due to
closure of national borders and travel restrictions.
The airlines have already experienced a major drop
in its traffic on their highest-profit international
routes especially in Asia–Pacific. The industry is
expected to miss the summer peak travel season.
Some airlines are expected to become bankrupt
particularly which are in less advanced economies.
FlyBe , the UK regional carrier which has become
bankrupt due to the pandemic is an early example.
Indigo, the largest air carrier in India is said to have
cut its senior management salary due to loss of
revenue. According to International Air Transport
Association, the aviation industry is estimated to
have a revenue loss of US$ 314 billion in 2020.
Paycuts and consolidation are expected to happen in
this industry due to the impact of corana virus.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
According the study by Market Research Universe, the global aviation industry is expected to grow at CAGR of
around 3.1% during 2020-2022. The revenue is expected to fall from USD 838 million in 2019 to USD 524
million in 2020.
According to the study, consolidation across the sector can reduce the burden of losses and airline companies
with tight cash flows can survive the crisis. However, declining fuel prices can induce the growth of the industry
by cutting its fuel costs.
755
812 838
524 540 582
634
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e
Global Aviation Industry Revenue (in Bn USD)
17. 17
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Automotive Industry
Automotive industry like any other industry is not
immune to the economic crisis due to the pandemic.
Major vehicle manufacturers have closed their
operations temporarily due to the lockdown.
Revenues are expected to fall as there is no sale of
vehicles taking place. However, major auto
manufacturers have started producing ventilators in
their production facilities. Major players like Honda
and Ford are in talks with UK government in
producing ventilators. In China, BYD have already
started producing disinfectants and face masks to
battle the spread of corona virus.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
The study notes that the global auto sales is expected to fall more than 13 percent from 2019 to around 79.42
million units which is said to worse than the financial crisis in 2008. The industry is likely to recover very
limitedly in the year 2021 at a rate of around 1.5%. The drop in sales may create high credit pressures to
manufacturers and suppliers and is likely to test the liquidity positions of the automakers. The production rate
may gradually recover depending on the recovery of supply chain and demand.
95,66 95,05 91,29
79,42 80,61 82,22
0
50
100
150
2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Global Vehicle Sales Forecast (in Mn units)
18. 18
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Real Estate, Rental and Leasing
Real estate industry is expected to be impacted
negatively due to uncertainty in the market.
Consumers are unlikely to buy and sell houses during
the lockdown. This can affect retailers and service
providers severely and some may even go out of
business due to reduced consumer spending.
Revenue flows of Real estate brokerage firms will be
affected due to social distancing as buyers may delay
their home purchases. Firms with liquidity problems
may suffer most in this crisis. The demand for
commercial and residential leases is expected to
drop drastically. Property listing websites like
Zoopla reported 40% drop in demand in March 2020
and it is predicting that the housing transactions
would drop by 60% over the next three years.
Global Real Estate Market is expected to decline
around 20-30% in 2020 due to fall in demand.
Thereafter it is expected to grow slowly around 1.5%
over the next few years.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
According to Market Research Universe, monetary and fiscal stimulus can greatly help the industry to survive.
Declining interest rates may attract prospective consumers to enter the real estate. Providing loan relief to real
estate operators especially those in commercial segment can greatly benefit the industry. Moreover,
government proposing mandatory code on rent reductions, freezes on rent increases and prohibiting the
termination of leases for non-payment of rent like the guidelines made in Australia will remove the growth
constraints from the industry.
8,6
6,88 6,98 7,09
0
5
10
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Global Real Estate Market (in USD Billion)
19. 19
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Agriculture
The Agriculture industry is expected to be impacted
by the corona virus pandemic in the medium term.
According to UNFAO, there are adequate food to
combat the crisis. But problems in production are
disrupted due to the lockdown. Though the industry
is labeled as essential service, the supply chain and
logistics barrier pose a huge disadvantage. The labor
intensive sectors in the industry such as tea
plantations, meat processing is believed to take a
hit. As social distancing and lockdown prevents
laborers from working, the agricultural production
may go down. Many farmers face labor shortages as
a result of the pandemic. Countries where
agricultural items are mostly procured through
exports are expected to experience sever shortages
due to supply chain disruptions. Though countries
which are self-sufficient in their agricultural
production may not be affected badly, but the
declining production levels may cause serious food
shortages across the world in the coming years.
According to UN Food and Agriculture Organization,
the world would risk a looming food crisis unless
measures are taken to keep global food supply chain
alive.
The prices for higher value products like meat and
perishable commodities are more likely to jump. The
farmers may suffer potential loss as there will be
wastages as perishable items like fruits, vegetables,
flowers harvested during this period may not be able
to find a potential market due to the pandemic.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
According to Market Research Universe, the prices of agricultural products is expected to recover from the fall
in 2021. Once the supply chain disruptions are cleared, prices are expected to rebound. The global agriculture
industry is expected to grow at CAGR of 1.5% over the next few years.
5
4,8
5,15
5,29
4,4
4,6
4,8
5
5,2
5,4
2019 2020 2021 2022
Global Agriculture Industry Forecast (in USD Trillion)
20. 20
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
Tourism
The Tourism industry is the most affected industry during the Corona virus pandemic. As public private
transports are restricted and national borders are closed across the world, tourism industry has almost
completely stalled. The industry is expected to see huge revenue falls in this year 2020. Moreover, the tourism
industry usually has a peak season during the summer months, as tourists throng to major sightseeing places to
spend their vacation. The industry is said to miss the peak season due to lockdown. According to WTO, the
global revenue for tourism and travel is expected to decline by around 20-30% from 2019. The industry is
expected to recover in 3-4 months post corona virus under optimistic assumption.
Source: Market Research Universe, MCG Analysis
According to Market Research Universe, Global Tourism Industry is forecasted to decline to USD 4 trillion in
2020 due to the corona virus pandemic and thereafter the market is expected to recover at growth rate of
around 2%.
5,34
4 4,08 4,17
0
2
4
6
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Global Tourism Industry Forecast (in USD Trillion)
21. 21
Impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) & Potential Recovery Paths
Copyright @ 2020 Market Research Universe
CONCLUSION: THE POST CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) WORLD
There is no doubt that Corona virus pandemic will disrupt the world economy. The impact of the pandemic is
said to change the industry landscape as many businesses will begin to reshape their strategies. Some
industries may evolve by creating new markets and opportunities. The global supply chain will begin to
diversify as relying on single country for everything from auto parts to medical supplies possess huge risks and
uncertainty. Major business entities will diversify their production lines and this can pave way for new
emerging manufacturing hubs. The significance of digital technology will be taken seriously by businesses.
There will be lots of digital goods being created by business as there is huge opportunity to explore. Business
which previously had in-person services will now start exploring virtual offerings. While Restaurants, hotels will
look to diversify their revenue streams and food tech companies are expected to grow beyond food delivery.
Governments across the world will be giving more attention to the health care system. Health care spending
will become crucial in government operations and investments in clinical research will be encouraged more.