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IFN 26/09/2018 : Kenya A New Horizon for Islamic Infrastructure Investment
1. Much has been made of the US$26
trillion Asian infrastructure gap, and
how Islamic finance could step in to
fill this space. But there is another
enormous infrastructure opportunity
in the developing world — one that has
captured far fewer headlines. Africa has
an infrastructure gap of up to US$108
billion per year, and with relatively
immature capital markets and high
levels of public debt, private sector
involvement and overseas investment
are urgently needed. So how can Islamic
finance help? This week, LAUREN
MCAUGHTRY explores one of the
less obvious investment opportunities
on the African continent — the
predominantly Christian Kenya.
Widely perceived as the financial,
communication and transportation
hub for Central and East Africa,
Kenya plays a pivotal role in the
region’s economic development.
One of the fastest-growing
economies in sub-Saharan
Africa, Kenyan GDP growth
hit 5.8% in 2016 and, despite a
lull of 4.8% growth in 2017 due
to drought, election controversy
and sluggish private sector
growth, 2018 is
expected to see
that number
rebound back to
5.5% (according to the latest World Bank
figures).
With this optimistic forecast, why the
urgent need for external financing? The
question is complex— but Islamic finance
could form part of the answer.
Infrastructure gap
New estimates from the African
Development Bank (AFDB) suggest
that the continent requires US$130-170
billion a year to finance its infrastructure
needs — with a current funding gap in
the range of US$68-108 billion. To meet
this need, the bank suggests that African
countries must attract private capital
to accelerate the building of critical
infrastructure, and involve institutional
investors through legislative reforms and
new financial instruments.
In April 2018, the World
Bank highlighted that
Kenya in particular faces a
“significant infrastructure
deficit” estimated at US$2.1
billion annually, with
sustained expenditures of
around US$4 billion per
year required to meet its
infrastructure needs.
Yet with US$49
billion of public
debt to service
(currently standing at 57% of GDP,
substantially higher than the 40%
ceiling recommended by the IMF for
developing countries), the government
has limited public resources to meet this
requirement, while the weak currency
is making repayments to external debt
(which makes up more than half of
government borrowing) more and more
difficult.
This is already constraining growth and
development. In April 2018, Kenya’s
biggest infrastructure project in the last
50 years, a US$3.5 billion 473 kilometer
intercity expressway, was delayed by US-
based construction giant Bechtel Group
amid concerns over high government
debt. Earlier this year, Central Bank
Governor Dr Patrick Njoroge urged
the government to consider “non-
debt-creating” methods of financing
infrastructure projects because there is
“less and less headroom for additional
borrowing, given the currency concerns,
and that room is narrowing”.
Private sector participation
The country urgently needs to mobilize
the private sector to finance its
infrastructure needs. The World Bank
estimates that increasing infrastructure
financing could improve Kenya’s per
capita growth rate by three percentage
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26th
September 2018 (Volume 15 Issue 39)
continued on page 3
Kenya: A new horizon for Islamic
infrastructure investment?