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A Predictive Model of Canadian
College Student Retention
Dr. Morgan Blair
Medicine Hat College
Dr. Peggy Patterson
The University of Calgary

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Factors affecting Canadian college student
retention are largely within an institution’s
control.

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Retention among
Canadian college
students deserves
more attention
Observations from
this research add
to the sparse
literature on this
topic
You can use the
results to develop
retention
strategies

4. www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among
Canadian college
students
deserves more
attention
Observations
from this research
add to the sparse
literature on this
topic
You can use the
results to develop
retention
strategies

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1. Despite abundant research on American
samples, we don’t know much about
Canadian college student retention
specifically.

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“we cannot assume that conclusions based
on [American] research are equally
applicable to Canada”
-Grayson and Grayson (2003)

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2. The majority of published literature is
based on university samples.

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College
Students
Over age 25
First-
generation
Racial
minority
Part-time
Academically
unprepared
Low SES

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3. Environmental changes in the Canadian
context are forcing institutions to look at
retention in greater detail.

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Overarching purpose:
 Improve Canadian college student success and
retention
 Inform policy and practice, guide allocation of
resources

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What are the dynamics of within-year retention
among Canadian community college students?
1. What is the estimated rate of retention?
2. What are the background and academic
characteristics that predict retention?
3. Do the predictive models differ by institution?
4. Do the predictive models differ by credential?

12. www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among
Canadian college
students deserves
more attention
Observations from
this research add
to the sparse
literature on this
topic
You can use the
results to develop
retention
strategies

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Dynamics
of
Retention
Theory
Literature
Data
Mining

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• Use of social structure
• Reproduction of social class via accessibility to education
Bordieau’s Social Capital
Theory
• Traits influence commitment & integration
• Integration influences commitment
Tinto’s Student Integration
Model
• Behavior influenced by attitudes
• Attitudes influence by experience
Bean & Metzner’s Student
Attrition Model
• Background and cognitive factors influence retention
Swail et al.’s Model of
Retention & Achievement
• Input and environmental factors interact to produce
outcomes
Astin’s Input-Environment-
Output Model

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Similarities
• Discrete variables
• Inter-relationships
• Multifaceted
• Individual or
environmental
Differences
• Role of student
• Institutional vs.
student perspective

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Natural
phenomena
Inter-
relationships
Discrete
variables
Complex
analyses
Describes
interaction
Institutional
Perspective

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Retention refers to
an academic
institution’s ability
to ensure that
students enroll
and re-enroll.

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Student Input
 Dependent children
 Grade 12 math
 Academic aspirations
 Goal commitment
 Institutional commitment
 1st generation
 Age
 Gender
 Marital status
 Aboriginal status
 High school average
Environmental
 Friends attend same college
 Family attend same college
 Hours studying
 Hours working at job
 Housing
 Family emotional support
 Family financial support
 Student loans
 Credit load
 Grade point average
 Credential
 Institution

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1. Total sample
2. College A only
3. College B only
4. University Transfer students
5. Students enrolled in parchment programs
6. Students enrolled in upgrading/non-parchment
programs

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University
Transfer
Parchment
Programs
Upgrading
& Other

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1. Retention rates differ by credential.

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83.6% 83.9% 82.9%
88.0% 86.3%
71.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

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2. GPA and full-time enrolment are the
strongest predictors of retention.

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• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.92)
• GPA (OR=4.10)
Total Sample
• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.34)
• GPA (OR=3.88)
College A
• Full-time enrolment (OR=19.22)
• GPA (OR=18.59)
College B

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3. Subgroups exist by credential:
a) Lower number of hours spent working
may predict retention among UT students.
b) Goal commitment may predict retention
among students enrolled in upgrading.

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• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.11)
• GPA (OR=4.10)
• Hours employed (OR=5.87; 4.69)
University
Transfer
• Full-time enrolment (OR=9.44)
• GPA (OR=13.89)
Parchment
• Full-time enrolment (OR=2.93)
• Goal commitment (OR=3.77)
Upgrading &
Non-Parchment

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4. Factors affecting Canadian college
student retention are largely within an
institution’s control.

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Input Environmental

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Retention among
Canadian college
students deserves
more attention
Observations from
this research add
to the sparse
literature on this
topic
You can use the
results to develop
retention
strategies

30. www.mhc.ab.ca
University
Transfer
• GPA >50th
• Full-time
• Work <10
Parchment
• GPA >50th
• Full-time
Upgrading &
Other
• Full-time
• Goal
commitment
How can your institution use the results?
What strategies can you develop?

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Continue the conversation online:
http://morganjblair.edublogs.org/

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Results should inform but not drive decisions.

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Improving student success and
retention is up to you.

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Contact:
Morgan Blair
Director, Strategic Research & Analysis
Medicine Hat College
mblair@mhc.ab.ca