Lecture given at Arab Institute for Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, Jordan on the competing gas interests between Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus

1. Regional Security in the Eastern Mediterranean
Nicolai Due-Gundersen
Oval Office for Studies and Research

2.  Introduction
 Island Division and Maritime Disputes
 Gas Discoveries and Ambitions
 Hamas and Hezbollah
 Temporary Solutions/Conclusion

4.  1974 North-South
split
 Greek Union Coup
 1983: Turkish
Republic of Northern
Cyprus
 2004: UN
Reunification
Rejection and EU
assimilation
 Grexit considerations
and resource coop

5.  Cyprus Division:
contracts
unrecognised
 Lebanon-Israel: No
accepted delineated
borders
 UN dilemma for
Israel

6.  2009-10: US-Israel venture discovery in Haifa
Seabed (Leviathan, Taimur). 26 TCF
 2011: Noble Energy discovers Aphrodite
Field, Cyp. Approx 7 TcF

7.  (South) Cyprus:
Regional LNG hub,
refinery for Europe,
Egypt
 Israel loses Egypt,
gains Jord
 Israel, Greece, Cyp
alliance
 Vs Turkey’s
ambitions alone;
encouraging Leb-
Noble field dispute

8.  2006 Hamas
Election; 2009
Israeli Invasion
 Gaza fields (2000)
 Israel restricts
Hamas and PA
profit; British Gas
and Egypt ended
 Goods and Services
only

9.  Offshore Gaza
installation targeted
 Distance, isolation=
vulnerability
 Investor
confidence?

10.  Dictated own Lebanese border
 Israeli projects under threat
 Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem:
“Lebanon will stand guard in order to protect
all its rights—no matter the cost.”
 Again, Israeli investor stability?

11.  US Role: Physical, economic security;
integrate East Med with global markets;
ensure safety of US citizens, workers
 Low oil price; high production costs
 JV for Cyprus, but Israel (militant activity)?
 Cyprus with Turkey as obstacle
 US too stretched for supervision?

12.  nicolai.due.gundersen@gmail.com