Digital technologies are transforming the global economy and society in fundamental ways:
1) Mobile broadband and digital technologies have enabled supercomputers to be carried in people's pockets, generating huge data flows and fueling disruptive innovation.
2) Digitization allows value creation to be decoupled from geography as digital firms are able to globally scale without requiring large numbers of employees in any single location.
3) The Internet, through open standards and decentralized architecture, enables global interoperability, permissionless innovation, and new platforms that facilitate many-to-many interactions instead of traditional one-to-many models.
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Digital Tipping Point: Policy Implications of Digitisation
1. DIGITALISATION AND
THE FUTURE OF WORK:
A DIGITAL TIPPING POINT?
OECD’s Global Parliamentarian Network
Andrew Wyckoff
Director of Science, Technology and Innovation
12 October 2016
2. IBM 360 (1964) – the first mainframe
Why all the attention now?
3. 0
25
50
75
100
125
Terrestrial mobile wireless Satellite Terrestrial fixed wireless All technologies, 2009
Subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
3 out of 4 OECD inhabitants now
have mobile wireless broadband…
Mobile wireless broadband penetration, by technology,
December 2009 and 2013
Subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
Source: OECD (2014), Measuring the Digital Economy. A New Perspective, OECD Publishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933147973
4. …and people carry supercomputers
(circa 1990) in their pockets.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Millions
Smartphones Other mobile phones
Quarterly shipping trends of smartphones, 2010-13
Sources: NBC News, St Peter’s Square: http://instagram.com/p/W2FCksR9-e/ and OECD Broadband Portal
5. 5
This is just the beginning of the
data-driven economy & society…
6. 6
Monthly global IP traffic, 2005-16
In exabytes (billions of gigabytes)
Average data storage cost, 1998-2012
In USD per gigabyte (log scale)
Source: OECD based on Pingdom (2011) Source: OECD based on Cisco (2012)
…that generate huge data flows...
7. 7
…which is fueling a new type of
disruptive innovation.
Algorithmic trading as share of total trading
Note: 2013-14 based on estimates.Source: OECD based on The Economist (2012) and Aite Group
Driverless car
Siri
8. Notes: average employment growth of small (0-49) units. Digital sectors are IT and other information services and Telecommunications.
Average over available years. Sectors covered: manufacturing, construction and non-financial business services. Owing to methodological
differences, figures may deviate from officially published national statistics. Source: DynEmp v.2 database.
Embrace the Change:
digital firms bring dynamism and jobs
Small Firm (0-49) net Job Growth, various years between 1997-2013
10. Two tech mega-trends that affect
nearly all public policies
• Digitisation
• Internet
Atoms to Bits
Interconnection
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11. Digitisation
• Transformation of an image, sound,
document or signal into binary form,
which enables computer processing;
• Unlike analog data, digital data can be
propagated indefinitely…
• …and this digital state allows recombined,
versioned and tailored at low cost…
• …and stored and delivered anywhere
at a low price.
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13. Whatsapp, 300M active users, 20B
message/day, 45 employees
Netflix, 30% peak Internet traffic,
2000 employees, USD3.5B revenue
Snapchat, 350M photos per day, 30
employees;
Dropbox, 175M users, 250 employees
Digitalisation: the ability to
(globally) “scale” without “mass”
14. Expand our understanding of “data”
• More than just “personal” data: 21st C infrastructure
• The growing importance of data “analytics”
• Ability to transform / manipulate = multi-sided markets
De-coupling of value creation from geography
• Rise of nomadic workers;
• Rise of irregular workers;
• Emphasis on creativity, problem solving skills – not
routine work;
Sale without Mass
• Small units of employment with global reach;
• independent or combined into a “networked” firm
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
15. The Internet
• Uses standards that are commonly developed,
voluntarily adopted, and openly available
global interoperability and
efficiency
• Decentralised and open architecture: no
government or monopolistic private control
permission-less usage: innovation
and competition
15
19. De-concentration
• Blurring of consumer vs. business;
employee and contractor;
• Enables platform jobs, piece work and on-
demand scheduling
• Data flows enable micro-targeting.
Re-concentration
• New methods of labour organisation;
• New intermediaries for policy
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The process of digitalisation is not new – underway for at least 50 years…
So why all the attention and increased policy focus now?
The coming together of two important technology “inflection points.”
The first:
Connectivity has become the norm for the OECD with almost 3 out of 4 individuals in the OECD having wireless broadband subscription (72% is the OECD average)
Old 2013 data – as 2015 – now 80%
4
5
These devices and our growing reliance on the Internet A common attribute of all these new production technologies and KBC investments is that they produce and feed-off-of data;
On the LEFT: you can see that the cost of storing data has plummeted especially since 2009;
On the RIGHT – you can see that the volume of data has soared, especially since 2009.
More data in a week than in the last mellenium….
All predications are that this is only the beginning –
8
This is really the fundamental basis: the transformation of information from analog to digital, a trend that started with the first computers and the advent of the Internet, which created global interconnectivity.
- a basic property of the Digital era: impart value to intangible products which can be digitised like data or software.
enables products to be stored, or value creation to occur nearly anywhere, decoupling it from a physical location or nexus.
- not only Tax but also:
-- competition policy which tends to depend on geographically bound, narrowly defined markets;
-- trade policy and which is predicated on something crossing a border and
-- education policy much of which is defined by physical things like classrooms, schools and districts.
If the product also benefits from network externalities where more users enhance the utility of the product, the resulting scale effects can contribute to so-called winner-take-all markets, raising competition issues.
More generally, this “scale without mass” effect of digital businesses is another manifestation of transformation of businesses from producing atoms to bits.
This will present challenges to policies that are currently oriented towards “big” or “small” businesses because these new digital businesses may be big in terms of revenue and influence but not by measures of mass: people, capital equipment or buildings.
Many policies – labour laws, innovation policies, are differentiated by the size of the firm.
More generally the shift from Atoms to Bits will raise issues not only in tax and competition policy, but also in trade policy and which is predicated on something crossing a border and education policy which is defined by classrooms, schools and districts.
and the ability to use the Internet to do more things (e.g. start a business, raise capital, express opinions, conduct research, share knowledge).
And this digitised state, fuelled by the global reach of the Internet enables “policy arbitrage” which is at the heart of BEPS
16
This is transformative and instead of the old systems that forced a “one to many” , the Internet with smart devices allows “many to many”
This has several implications for policy, including
dismantling of complex hierarchical structures meant to process and funnel data up to decision makers and
The adoption of flatter, “mesh” network structures that are more flexible and semi-autonomous;
That enable peer-to-peer platforms like Uber, AirBNB and UpWork and the so-called “gig” economy
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From atoms to bits
From centralised to distributed (from ‘command and control” to “organic”)
Disintermediation and re-intermediation
Control over mass communication and changing sense of community: a broadening and transfer
The global nature of the Internet - and the erosion of the Sovereignty of the State
The changing nature of capital
Growing economies of scale and scope
The nature of markets and their regulation, e.g. P2P
Speed and temporal shifts