This presentation was given by Richard Garrett of the Observatory on Borderless Higher Education (OBHE) at the international seminar “Opening higher education: what the future might bring” 8-9 december 2016, in Berlin, Germany, jointly organised by OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) and Laureate International Universities (LIU).

1. Open & Distance Learning
Reflections on Trends
OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
and Laureate International Universities (LIU)
International seminar
“Opening higher education: what the future might bring”
Berlin, Germany, 8-9 December 2016

2. Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
2
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3. Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
3
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4. Perpetual challenges…
• National data on “open” and “distance
learning” remains rare, and therefore little
comparative analysis
• Limited disaggregation by delivery mode and
operational model
• Disparities on definition
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5. Why are US DL specialists loosing share?
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
25 Distance-Only 4Y HEIs1,841 Other 4Y HEIs with Distance Students
2012
2013
2014
Down about 10%
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Up over 20%
Source: IPEDS and Observatory analysis
StudentHeadcount(Fall)-Undergraduate
andGraduate
Median
Enrollment=
11,500 (2014)
Median
Enrollment= 194
(2014)

6. Mixed enrollment trends globally- why?
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From “The State of Open Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016)
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7. Explaining growth and decline…
Reasons for Growth
• Add genuine capacity
• Common, outcomes-based regulation
• Unique presence/role
Reasons for Decline
• Conventional HEI competition
• Legacy instructional model
• Limited case for modality and scale
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8. Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
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© IGI Services 2016

9. How to define and report DL outcomes?
0%
60%
40%
0%
20%
80%
0%
30%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Detailed Partial Little or None
Graduation Rates
Graduate Employment
Productivity
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Outcomes Reporting- Website assessment
of 10 ODL universities globally From “The State of Open
Universities in the
Commonwealth” report
(CoL/OBHE- 2016)

10. Maybe openness is not the problem?
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Source:
Completing
College (NSCH)-
US Fall 2010
cohort (2016)

11. Much DL exhibits limited innovation
beyond delivery mode
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12. Agenda
• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”
• Where is the value in open/distance learning?
• New openness, new competition
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© IGI Services 2016

13. New Competition…

14. Top right will drive effectiveness, but
implications for scale and DL? © IGI Services 2016
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Degrees Degree
Alternatives
Explicit Pedagogy &
Outcomes
Implicit Pedagogy &
Outcomes
DL/Online
HE
CBE
Free MOOCs
Paid MOOCs
Traditional HE
Bootcamps
HEI Certificates
Micromasters
Circle size= enrollment scale
Minerva
Georgia Tech
CS Master’s

15. Summary…
• DL data- inputs, process, outputs- remains
patchy, muted and complex. Second best?
• Much DL fails to innovate beyond delivery
mode; and makes limited case for scale
• DL being “domesticated” by traditional HEIs
• New models emphasis pedagogy over delivery
mode
• Is blended best mix of pedagogy, access and
scale?
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16. Thank youThank you
Richard Garrett
Director, The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education
richard.garrett@obhe.org
obhe.org
Chief Research Officer
Eduventures
rgarrett@eduventures.com
eduventures.com