The role of infrastructure for energy transformation

1. Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum,
OECD, 10 November 2016 - Paris
The role of infrastructure for
the energy transformation
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Graz University of Technology

2. Paris Agreement
Rogelj et al, Nature, 2016

3. Investments over the next 15 years will shape
the energy infrastructure for many decades
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GHGemissions(GtCO2equiv.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Delays cause “lock-in” and
stranded assets (coal power)
Meeting the 2ºC targets implies the
phase-out of coal power
infrastructure without CCS
Source AMPERE: Riahi et al, 2015 and Bertram et al, 2015

4. China
SouthAsia
USA+Canada
Africa
Europe
MENA
Rest of the world
Stranded assets by Region
Source: MESSAGE model
Current global energy-related investments are in
the order of 1000 billion
Johnsonetal.(2015),TFSC

5. 6
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After G Morgan and N Nakicenovic
Transformational Change

6. Behavioral change:
Strong feedback effects between infrastructure availability and consumer preferences
McCollum et al. (2016), Transp. Research Part D
PerceivedCosts
(non-financialprefs.)
RealCosts
(financialprefs.)
Tech-savvy,
urbanite
Auto-
dependent
urbanite
Late-
adopting
ruralist
3 Types of Consumers
(different lifestyles,
preferences, etc.)
Battery technology
improves
(increased vehicle range)
EV charging infrastructure
build-out
(but range still limited)
BOTH battery
improvements and
infrastructure build-out

7. Perfectly rational consumers (cost-
minimizing behavior)
(mean representative decision agents)
Current preferences & behavior
(heterogeneous decision agents)
(Reductions from baseline; LDVs only)
Marginalcostofabatement
McCollumetal.(2016),Transp.ResearchPartD
?
Behavioral change:
CO2 mitigation costs in the vehicle transport sector
Key questions is how to
induce behavioral change?
Infrastructure investments
3-15 billion US$ in an initial
phase (preliminary estimate)

8. Buildings sector
Retrofit or new efficient buildings? Major implications for long-term lock-in of the building stock
Urge-Vorsatzetal,2012