1. © OECD/IEA 2015
19 May, GIFF
Laura Cozzi

2. © OECD/IEA 2015
A good news: emissions halt in 2014
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
For the first time in history, 2014 recorded a stall in energy-related
CO2 emissions despite a growth of the global economy
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Gt
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dissolution of
Soviet Union
Global economic
Downturn
2014
Latest
estimate

3. © OECD/IEA 2015
Renewables come of age, but fossil fuel
investment still dominant
Annual energy supply investment
Investment in renewables rose from $60 billion in 2000 to a high point
approaching $300 billion in 2011, stabilising at around that level since
500
1 000
1 500
Billiondollars(2012)
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013
Renewables
Power transmission
& distribution
Fossil fuels
Nuclear

4. © OECD/IEA 2015
States hold many of the cards
Ownership of worldwide power generation capacity & oil and gas reserves
Alongside investment by the private sector, the objectives, corporate culture &
financing of state-owned companies are critical to future energy investment flows
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Power plants
Oil and gas reserves States & national oil companies Private sector
State-owned companies Private utilities
Industrial plants
& households

5. © OECD/IEA 2015
GW
Power sector: the capacity to change?
Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2014-2040
Almost 40% of power capacity reaches its end of lifetime until 2040, mostly in OECD
countries – a replacement challenge & decarbonisation opportunity at the same time
400 600 800 1 200 1 400 1 6001 000200
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
Middle East
Retirements
AdditionsNet additions
1 800

6. © OECD/IEA 2015
The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong
signal that low-carbon investment needs to increase to four-times current levels
The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040
The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris?
World CO2 budget for 2 °C
~2300 Gt
25%
50%
75%
100%
Share of budget used
in Central Scenario
1900-2012
2012-2040
Average annual low-carbon
investment, 2014-2040
Central
Scenario
For 2 °C
target
2013
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Efficiency
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Trilliondollars(2013)

7. © OECD/IEA 2015
Conclusions
 The energy sector shows encouraging trends for both renewables and energy
efficiency ahead of the Paris climate meeting
 Energy sector investment decisions will be decisive in determining our success
in decoupling emissions and economic growth
 An increasing number of countries are putting forward decarbonisation
policies, including the two largest economies and emitters (the US and China)
 On 15 June, the IEA will unveil a 10 year energy strategy to achieve a global
peak in emissions while not harming any countries economic growth