ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 4 - Tomasz KOZLUK "Environmental policies and economic outcomes: what can we learn from firms and industries?"

1. Tomasz Kozluk, OECD
Global Forum on Environment (and Growth)
25th October 2016
Environmental policies and
economic outcomes:
what can we learn from
firms and industries?

2. • Measuring policies
– Stringency (EPS)
– Burdens to entry and competition (BEEP)
• Measuring economic effects
– Stringent policies have effects,
– Effects are significant, but small,
– Winners and losers.
• How can we design policy packages to:
– Reallocate from losers to winners?
– Turn losers into winners?
OECD: Environmental policies and their
economic effects

3. - Financial statements of publicly traded
companies,
- Business registries, tax registries, trade
inventories
- Dedicated surveys (e.g. manufacturing,
investment, innovation),
- Other sources, “privately” collected (eg
ORBIS, Patstat, GIS, GPS),
- Pollution Release Inventories (PRTRs, EU ETS
sub.),
- Field trials & related data
- Voluntary disclosure
Firm (& plant) data – what can we work
with? Some examples
Counterfactuals:
who they cover, who
they don’t cover?
Availability/
existence (eg over
time)
Do they cover what
we are interested
in?
Representativeness/
sampling
Confidentiality
Strategic responses/
lack of response,
credibility &
reliability
Comparability (eg
across countries)

4. Environmental policies, energy prices
and investment – not an obvious win-win
Preliminary
results
Source: Dlugosch and Kozluk , (2016 forthcoming), Energy prices,
environmental policies and investment – evidence from listed firms

5. Other things are more important for
outward FDI than environemtal policies
Preliminary
results
Source: Garsous and Kozluk , (2016 forthcoming), FDI and the Pollution
Haven Hypothesis.

6. Across industries: a (small) pollution
haven effect…
Source: Kozluk and Timiliotis, (2016), Do environmental policies affect
global value chains? A new perspective on the pollution haven hypothesis.
6

7. More stringent environmental policies:
winners and losers
Source: Kozluk and Timiliotis, (2016), Do environmental policies affect
global value chains? A new perspective on the pollution haven hypothesis.
7

8. Productivity growth. Across firms:
advanced firms gain – laggards lose
Source: Albrizio et al. (2014), Do environmental policies matter for
productivity growth? Insights from new measures of environmental policies
8

9. Unintended(?) consequences of vintage
differentiated air pollution policies
Predictedlifeofacoal-firedpowerplant
Percentiles of degree of VDR (distribution across
countries)
0=equal norms for incumbents and new entrants
100=most differentiated
Preliminary
results

10. Tomasz.Kozluk@oecd.org
http://oe.cd/eps
Thank you!