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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival? Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University *bartholj@science.oregonstate.edu http://microbiology.science.oregonstate.edu/fac_bartholomew Jerri Bartholomew Fish Disease  Research
Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change Interactions with Disease Streamflow patterns Host life histories  Thermal regimes Nutrients
Myxospore stage Actinospore stage Polychaete host Salmon host Decreased longevity Increased parasite replication Altered timing of parasite release Stress causing reduced disease thresholds Changes in population dynamics Altered spore longevity? Ceratomyxa shasta life cycle
Outcomes Changes in disease severity Changes in seasonal cycles Changes in pathogen range
Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER  KLAMATH RIVER UPPER  KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 1 spore/L
Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER  KLAMATH RIVER UPPER  KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles temp ct A B C A B C 1 18.2 17.8 Dry 30.1 27.8     Dry 3 19.6 16.0 34.0 28.6         5 19.1 17.4   34.3 29.7           7 18.9   15.8 31.4   29.9         9 18.7 18.1   28.8 30.6           11 18.7   17.2 33.6   30.1         13 18.9 17.8   28.7 26.9       15 18.6 27.8   17 18.8 28.1   19 18.9 29.8   21 19.1 27.8   23 18.8 28.7
Study aim: Predict changes in  C. shasta  range based on projected temperature changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
QUESTIONS?
Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER  KLAMATH RIVER UPPER  KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
Predict disease severity in salmon Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER  KLAMATH RIVER UPPER  KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 10 spores/L

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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival?

  • 1. Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival? Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University *bartholj@science.oregonstate.edu http://microbiology.science.oregonstate.edu/fac_bartholomew Jerri Bartholomew Fish Disease Research
  • 2. Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change Interactions with Disease Streamflow patterns Host life histories Thermal regimes Nutrients
  • 3. Myxospore stage Actinospore stage Polychaete host Salmon host Decreased longevity Increased parasite replication Altered timing of parasite release Stress causing reduced disease thresholds Changes in population dynamics Altered spore longevity? Ceratomyxa shasta life cycle
  • 4. Outcomes Changes in disease severity Changes in seasonal cycles Changes in pathogen range
  • 5. Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 1 spore/L
  • 6. Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
  • 7. Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles temp ct A B C A B C 1 18.2 17.8 Dry 30.1 27.8     Dry 3 19.6 16.0 34.0 28.6         5 19.1 17.4   34.3 29.7           7 18.9   15.8 31.4   29.9         9 18.7 18.1   28.8 30.6           11 18.7   17.2 33.6   30.1         13 18.9 17.8   28.7 26.9       15 18.6 27.8   17 18.8 28.1   19 18.9 29.8   21 19.1 27.8   23 18.8 28.7
  • 8.
  • 10. Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
  • 11. Predict disease severity in salmon Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 10 spores/L

Editor's Notes

  1. Ceratomyxa shasta abundance had consistent geographical and seasonal patterns, although parasite numbers fluctuated between years. The parasite increased in spring, from <1 spore/L to peak at >100 spores/L in June. Beaver Creek has consistently the highest spore density
  2. Ceratomyxa shasta abundance had consistent geographical and seasonal patterns, although parasite numbers fluctuated between years. The parasite increased in spring, from <1 spore/L to peak at >100 spores/L in June. Beaver Creek has consistently the highest spore density
  3. A vacuum pump 1 reduces liters of river water to collect material less than 5 μ m on a filter paper 2 which is folded 3 and placed in a tube and frozen until digestion. DNA is extracted, purified and Ceratomyxa shasta is amplified in a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay 4 . A probe binds to the amplified DNA and fluoresces, which is measured by a computer (Cq value).
  4. So this is our complicated problem
  5. Ceratomyxa shasta abundance had consistent geographical and seasonal patterns, although parasite numbers fluctuated between years. The parasite increased in spring, from <1 spore/L to peak at >100 spores/L in June. Beaver Creek has consistently the highest spore density
  6. Ceratomyxa shasta abundance had consistent geographical and seasonal patterns, although parasite numbers fluctuated between years. The parasite increased in spring, from <1 spore/L to peak at >100 spores/L in June. Beaver Creek has consistently the highest spore density