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Deep learning and feature extraction for time series forecasting
1. Deep learning and feature extraction for time
series forecasting
Pavel Filonov
pavel.filonov@kaspersky.com
27 May 2016
2. Outlines
Motivation
Cyber Physical Security
Problem formulation
Anomaly detection
Time series forecasting
Artificial Neural Networks
Basic model
RNN on raw data
Feature engineering
RNN on extracted features
Quasi-periodic timeseries
Conclusions
8. Forecasting models
Auto-regression models and EMA (ARMA, ARIMA, GARCH)
Neural networks
Adaptive short term forecasting
Adaptive auto-regression
Adaptive model selection
Adaption model composition
Density forecast
Quantile regression
...
9. Neural networks for timeseries forecasting
Feed forward NN on window1
Recurrent NN
Hopfield networks
Elman networks
Long short term memory2
Gated Recurrent Unit3
1
https://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/academic/class/15782-
f06/slides/timeseries.pdf
2
http://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/
3
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.1078v3.pdf
10. Neuron model
xi — inputs
b — bias
f — activation function
σ(t) = 1
1+e−t
tanh(t) = e2t
−1
e2t+1
f(t) = t
f(t) = H(t)
y — output
Figure: Single neuron
11. LSTM
ft = σ(Wf · [ht−1, xt] + bf )
it = σ(Wi · [ht−1, xt] + bi)
˜Ct = tanh(WC · [ht−1, xt] + bC)
Ct = ftCt−1 + it
˜Ct
ot = σ(Wo · [ht−1, xt] + bo)
ht = ot tanh(Ct)
Picture from: http://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/
12. RNN on raw data
NN topology: 722 input → 64 LSTM + Dropout(0.2) → 722 Linear
Forecast horizon: 5 minutes