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1. Global Education
Futures Agenda
Russian Education
Foresight Initiative
Pavel Luksha & Dmitry Peskov
RF Group 2010-2013
globaledfutures@refuture.me

2. Our work on charting the future of education
2010: first Russian education foresight at Educamp 2010
2011: first Russian ‘map of the future of education’
2012: first Russian foresight on higher education perspectives
2012-13: first Russian skills foresight across 19 industries providing new
requirements for school & university curriculum based on demand of
industries [Report + Navigator through jobs of the future + interactive career
orientation tool + career-orientation games for high school students]
2013: first version of the Report on Global Education Futures Agenda
• map of the future of education [in Russian & English]
• iPad & online application [in Russian, English TBD]
• 150-pages comprehensive report [in Russian & English & Chinese]

3. Education Futures 2035 Map:
200+ trends, technologies & educational formats that
will inform global education agenda

4. Focus of the Report
Our focus: the cutting edge of educational practices and
the new global architecture of education
Less developed
nations, ca. 40% of
the world’s
population (Africa,
Latin America,
Central Asia)
As a rule, global
education reports
originate in
‘equalization of
opportunities’ or
‘helping the laggards’
standpoint
Early industrialized
Formation of the basic
system (early industrial
logic). Basic schooling,
parochial schools.
Technical College.
Higher education for the
elite.
Developed
nations, ca. 15%
of the world’s
population
(OECD
countries)
Emerging
nations, ca. 45%
of the world’s
population
(China, India, the
Arab World, SEA)
Industrialized
Late-/post-industrialized
Creation of integrated national
systems (the logic of developed
industrialism). Mass schooling.
Special and technical schools.
Mass higher education, “Big
universities”. Knowledge-focused
education. Qualifications approach.
Formation of educational sphere
(early post-industrial logic). New
teaching approaches. Focus on
skills & competencies. Projectand activity-based education.
Meta-competency education.
This group is
characterized by:
• being at, or near,
technological
frontier, incl. ICT
• ‘first world’
problems
• “encumbrances”
(developed social
institutions of the
industrial past
become liabilities
or burden)

5. Major challenges forcing the search for new
models of education
Digital
technologies
Education tech
start-ups
Hypercompetition &
emergence of
new industries
Education
as an asset
Challenges of
consumer society
Changing models of knowledge creation, preservation and transmission.
Changes in achievement recording and evaluation / assessment procedures.
Changes in the process of managing personal development trajectory.
Changes in the management of educational institutions, etc.
The new & rapidly growing market of solutions with potential to
complement or even replace traditional formats of industrial
education
Demand for educational and research pragmatics
Requirements for the new content and new educational formats:
(a) maximum flexibility & development of meta-professional competences,
and (b) superfast education and narrow-focused competence development
The development of a variety of investment models in education
(including financial investment models).
Demand for quality control and transparency of education outcomes.
Trend: growing share of students with a reduced motivation for
education (when basic needs are satisfied).
Counter-trend: growing proportion of ‘independent learners’
demanding ‘learning their own way’.

6. Defining Education
We see education as an institutionalized process of individual development support
from birth to death. Formalized educational institutions are responsible for only a
fraction of this process.
Personalised
Pragmatic
Team education as a development tool for corporations,
NGOs, state institutions, communities etc.
Early
development
(family,
kindergarten)
Formal education
during the first
trimester of life
(school & university)
Socialization
(in family and in society)
Further development of
professional competency
Elderly
adaptation
Acquiring new knowledge as a hobby or
a change of career track
Development of personal traits
and self-development
Education as a tool that helps solve family problems and
overcome crises (incl. parent education)
-1…
human life cycle
…100+

7. Stakeholders involved in discussions
of the future of education
Different stakeholder positions mean different visions of future education
INDIVIDUAL
BUSINESS
(as an employer
and as a seller)
Education for
complete life
cycle
STATE
FAMILY
COMMUNITIES
(FORMAL AND INFORMAL)

8. Transformation pressures on education systems
from the various stakeholders
New global standards and
global competition pressures
Intra-system
innovators (innovative
teachers etc.)
New content and
organizational
forms of education
New requests from local
consumers (families, business,
non-profit organizations, state)
Extra-system innovators
(ed tech startups etc.)

9. Presupposition: Where the changes come from
Major trends:
• Development of new technologies
• Changes in political & economic environment
• Social & cultural transformations
Infrastructure of
body: medicine &
fitness
Infrastructure of
communication:
ICT
New solutions in
education
Infrastructure of
production &
consumption:
finance
Transformation of
traditional
institutions
Key ‘infrastructures’
of society
Aspects of education:
• Knowledge acquisition &
creation of new knowledge
• Socialization, skills
development, personal growth
• Recording / evaluation of
progress & achievements

10. Background: some technologies influencing the
transformation of education
‘Brain fitness’
technologies
New psycho-pharm
(2020-)
Cognitive Revolution
HTTP 2.0: Thought
transfer protocol
(2025)
Mass-market
neurointerfaces
‘New authencity’ (2015-2025)
Digitization & Mobility
Full scale virtual
worlds for
work & play
BigData analysis of
everyday behavioral
patterns
Widespread
blended AR/VR
reality in large
cities
Semantic translation
engines (2019)
Domination of
Internet of things
‘Strong’ artificial
intelligence (also used
in virtual worlds)
(2027)
Automation of Intellectual Routines
2013
2016
2025
2035

11. Background: major economic/
political/ social/ cultural issues
Scenario factors:
- The future of globalization
- The future of states
- The role of Asia
Rebuilding industries through new waves of
technology innovation (IoT, new materials &
3d-print, biotech, new energy etc.)
Shift in models of business organization
and industry management (open innovation, hybrid
organizations & network economies, DIY industries)
Global greening of cities & industries
Shift in employment patterns and lifestyles (displaced workers,
new eldery, gaming generations, authenticity seekers)
New financial architecture &
reputation economy
Shift in patterns of family organization & childhood
2013
2016
2025
2035

12. Globalization of education: Enter the МOOCs
Background
- Global competition for
markets and resulting global
talent hunt
- Internet as a factor on
‘cultural homogenization’
- spreading of international
standards in education
(Bachelor/Master, PhD,
tenure-track contracts)
Strengthening of
‘Educational Imperialism’
(an outcome of ‘BillionStudent University’
models)
MOOCs- based education:
the rise of transnational /
trans-boundary models of
qualifications and
competencies
Some states responding
with ‘educational
sovereignty’ (dead end?)
Global ‘great talent
vacuum-cleaner’ and
‘TNC citizenship’
Scenario factor: globalization
or regionalization?
2013
2016
2022
Global education
architecture: W(E)TO or
Talent Kyoto protocol?
2030

13. Personalization: from business drive to self-managed
education
Business as employer: achievement / skill recognition:
•
•
•
Online diplomas and portfolios for everyone
Widespread online competence certificates &
achievement badges
Life-long ‘competency diplomas’
Business as investor: ‘talent hunt’ & Hollywood / NHL model
• From Upstart to “man-llionaires” and new pension funds
• Insurance plans in education for learners
& talent investors
Demand to self-manage educational content for max personal capitalization
• Libraries of educational content and trajectories. ‘Your Hero Path’ to replace
standard degrees as the main ‘educational commodity’
• Trajectories tailored by mentor networks
• 24/7 artificial tutors (growing from ‘trajectory libraries’).
Climax: “Diamond Age Primer”
Demand for authenticity: individualized life-long learning as an
integral part of your life cycle (incl. support in personal cirsis &
transformation)
2013
2016
2022
2030

14. Co-operation: from ‘team hunt’ to CoP-centered learning
Background & current
trends
- Team education
demand from
corporate & state
players
- Startup-education in
acceleration
- ‘McKinsey as
university’ model:
producing teams &
networks as a byproduct of business
activities
2013
Demand for teams from communities
of practice (CoP)
Distributed / online CoPs become a
new educational milieu (also: integrate
with MOOCs)
New universities as
students’ holdings
(revival of the medieval
university model within
growing CoPs)
Family demand for re-integration
through ‘team education’
Educational opportunities fair:
participate in projects or games for
cash, reputation, experience & social
impact
2016
2022
2030

15. Gamification: from education games to the totality
of gaming
Driver: technologies
leading towards postscarcity economy
Background
- MMORPG is a mass
phenomenon but little
recognized & used in
education
- the game culture becomes
a norm across generations
Recognition of gaming:
- Routine use of games for
project-based learning /
progress & final testing
- MMORPG achievements
in CVs
City as a huge simulator:
from ‘child-friendly cities’
to ‘city games for all ages’
‘Childhood-long games’:
super-long transmedia
games that adjust content
& difficulty with age
Behavior correction
simulators (biofeedback,
AR).
Virtual jail: overcoming
social alienation of
delinquents using virtual
simulators
Gradual gamification of life: real life achievements recognized
through game mechanics in fitness, travel & beyond
2013
2016
2022
‘Psychodrama worlds’
gaming in psychotherapy
Working & living in
blended virtual + real
worlds becomes the life
standard in OECD
Game interfaces become
the standard workspace
environment
‘Homo Ludens’ a social
norm
2030

16. Science: from BigData to live knowledge models
Background
- Exponential growth and
‘decay’ of knowledge
- Discipline gaps: the
‘Tower of Babel’ effect
- Growing demand for
‘knowledge-in-practice’
‘Prosthetics’ of knowledge:
rebuilding fundamental
research with semantic
technologies;
researcher community
communication in digital milieu
(arXiv & Wiki as prototypes)
Science epistemology reconsidered with ICT:
BigData in science (Grey’s 4th paradigm)
Digital practices in R&D:
- stitching ‘R’ with ‘D’ (reusable digital
models in computation disciplines & virtual
labs)
- connectivity factor (crowdsourcing of
R&D, co-use of Big Science objects &
remote labs)
2013
2016
AI-based ‘live knowledge’
models for communities
of practice become a
new standard of
knowledge organization
(ending ‘Gutenberg Era’)
‘New Aristotle’: artificial
intelligence to structure
research teams and co-author
research results
Reorganization of standards in
citation indexing, achievement
recording and IPR management (new
KM ontology) for digital & connected
research environments
2022
2030

17. NeuroWeb: disrupting technologies for ‘new education’
Background
Neuro- solutions go
towards mass-market:
- medical applications
(prostheses &
rehabilitation)
- fitness & sports
(biometry, biofeedback,
psychopharm)
- industrial & military
applications for remote
equipment control
- use in gaming &
entertainment
- neuromarketing
Addressing age-related
issues through education
(‘flexible mind’ training with
‘brain fitness’ & neurosolutions)
2013
Ultra-fast learning methods
& development of exocortex
(sync between mind &
artificial agents / avatars)
Training productive states of
mind & body through
biofeedback & gaming
Schools of attention (incl.
overcoming ADHD syndrome
with neuro-training)
The rise of NeuroWeb (new
web built with mass-market
brain-brain interfaces &
‘Human Throught Transfer
Protocol’): new ways of
communication, training,
creative work and
management
New pedagogy (variety of
new educational tools &
products) for NeuroWebconnected groups
Live teaching & MOOCs adjusting for real student
engagement & learning attained (measured
through biometry & neurointerfaces)
Tools for managing productive altered
states of consciousness (ASCs) for
operator & creative work
2016
2022
2030

18. New Education Landscape
in 3-5 yrs
• МООСs integrated by
educational trajectories
• Academic grades give
way to achievement
recognition &
competency passports
• New models of direct
talent investment and
other financial /
insurance tools in
education (for learners &
investors)
in 7-10 yrs
• The first ‘Billion-Student
University’
• Mentor networks and
artificial tutors
• Mass market solutions for
full-scale education
without ever entering
school or university
• Major role of gaming
environments and
augmented reality
• Objectivation of education
process via biometry /
neurointerfaces
in 15-20 yrs
• Game and teamwork are
predominate forms of
education and social
interactions
• Artificial intelligence as a
mentor (“Diamond Age
Primer”) and a partner in
research
• ‘Live knowledge’ models
and the death of
Gutenberg Galaxy
• Education in NeuroWeblinked groups and new
pedagogy

19. Obsolesce of Formats
Following existing educational formats will be largely recognized in
developed countries as ineffective or obsolete given the availability of
feasible alternatives
by 2017
• ‘Human phonograph’
industrial teaching based
on standard textbooks &
tests (replaced by ICT
based solutions)
• Standardized tests
(complemented &
replaced by tests more
focused on unique &
creative abilities)
• Semester grades
(replaced by continuous
result recording)
by 2025
• Graduation diplomas
•
(replaced by life-long
•
competency diploma)
•
• Academic journals
(replaced by researcher
communication networks),
citation indexing standards
& IPR management system
(replaced by
comprehensive digital KM
ontologies)
• Single-author textbooks
• ASCs as a social deviation
by 2035
Comprehensive schools
Research universities
Texts (books & articles)
as a predominant
medium of knowledgebased communication

20. Education in human life cycle:
from sprinting to marathons
Education 2013
Education 2030
education of the ‘firstthird’ of life (school &
university) followed by
professional education
interventions
0…
lifelong education through all
stages of adult life, with
second ‘intensity peak’ during
the transition into eldery life
Intensity
Intensity
25
50
childhood education
culminating in ‘rite of
passage’ into adult life
75
Life time
0…
25
50
75
Life time
100+

21. Learner’s path in 2030 education (demand side)
Goal-setting
Self-defined
(and continuously
adjusted) personal
development goals
Goals defined by the
role model (‘My
Hero’s Path’)
Goals defined by or
with mentors as
guides though
educational process
Team games / group projects that correspond
to the level and goals of individual development (or
development in the family)
Personal development trajectory
Achievement
recording during
education process
Worldview, languages, intellectual
development (IQ)
Personal competency
‘passport’
Social and managerial skills
(SQ / EQ)
Integrated portfolio of
creative achievement
(incl. game
achievements)
Managing body-and-mind states,
healthy behavior (PQ / EQ)
‘Enforced’ goals
(e.g. by parents or
employers)
Online
courses,
knowledge
libraries
Simulators
and
MMORPG
Biometry /
biofeedback
wearbles and
neurointerfaces
Project/game tasks and participants markets
Indicators of the
quality of educational
process (engagement,
‘flow’)
Supporting
tech
solutions
Evaluation and feedback
from mentors, peers,
users of project results,
members of
communities of practice

22. Learner’s tech environment in 2030 education (supply side)
Bio-monitoring
(wearables etc.)
“Cloud” of competence
models and standards
&
Developer’s tools (ed
products & integration
into non-ed products)
EDSTORE
Ed-BigData:
data processing systems
Gateways to game worlds,
social networks and
collaborative environments
Educational trajectory
management interface
Assessment and
certification systems
(incl. games and social
networks)
Libraries of MOOCs and
simulators (with rankings)
Online competency
passport &
integrated portfolio
Opportunity markets
(vacant positions/projects/games to gain
experience and/or reputation)
New financial tools (reputational capital, investment solutions)

23. Financial & insurance instruments for New Education
Instrument
type
Key logic
Trends supported
1
Direct talent
investment
- return on investment
- transparency, accountability,
manageability
- personalization of education
- data mining of profitable
education&career trajectories
2
Insurance
model
- being competent is like being
healthy (hence: ed insurance
plan)
- investment protection
- support to direct talent investment
model
- personalization of education
- education in communities / teams
3
Ed co-op
- co-financing the development - education in communities / teams
of community / team
competences
4
Educational
bookmaking
- ‘’players’ bet on their ability
to learn a subject or master a
skill
- gamefication of education
- personalization (competing with ‘peers’)
5
Exchange &
accumulation
of reputation
capital
- reputation in community is
exchanged and increased
through learning & teaching
- education in communities / teams
- gamefication of education

24. Technoparadigm in Education –
Teacher’s Friend or Foe?
Obsolescent occupations
• ‘human phonograph’
teachers & professors
• certain administrative
positions(e.g. educational
process planners)
• authors of ‘pre-digital’
textbooks
Emerging occupations
Occupations dealing with development and
implementation of solutions for:
• ‘blended’ learning that combines online / offline
learning modules
• learning through real-life projects
• learning embedded in games
• learning using wearables
• managing education and career trajectories
• evaluation and assessment
Significant growth in the number of workplaces
with a major shift in key competences demanded

25. Big Markets for New Education
Educational systems become educational spheres. This creates a number of new
large markets where new companies size of Google or Facebook will thrive.
Backbone solutions
Virtual worlds for
playing and learning
Neuro- solutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Competence,
achievement &
reputation tracking
Ed search engine
and/or EdStore
Ed-BigData solutions
Ed developer tools
Ed trajectory
management &
artificial tutors
Mentor networks
Opportunity and
talent exchange
markets
•
•
•
•
•
Simulators for
prolonged team
training
Simulators for
alienated &
delinquents
Games with
augmented reality in
corporate & urban
environment
Simulators of risky &
hazardous situations
‘Playing with values’
‘Psychodrama worlds’
•
•
State-of-mind training
tools (incl. wearables)
& attention
management schools
Measurement of
engagement &
learning attained
Sensoriums
New ed finance
+ solutions to
‘patch up’ industrial
model of education

26. Big Markets for New Education:
Wave of Startups & Spin-offs
•
Crisis in education
recognized
ICT called to
address the issues
Ed tech a new fashion
•
New generation of leaders
in education rises
2010-2017
‘Crutches’ and ‘patches’
for the current system
using existing ICT
infrastructure.
Growing bubble in ed
tech market segment.
2017-2025
Plunging of ed tech market players
focused on solutions
complementary to existing
education. Growth of solutions
offering new standards. Wars of
standards and formats. Next gen
ICT infrastructure used (incl. AIs,
AR, biomonitors & neurointerfaces
etc.)
2025 - 2035
New education solutions become
the basic infrastructure in the
developed world
The ‘double hump’
effect is typical for
many innovative sectors
and could also be
expected in ed tech
market. Businesses that
remain afloat after the
initial bubble collapses
will set new standards
Risk of overheating and
collapse is compensated
by the possibility of
emergence of gamechanging innovations.
At this point it is not
possible to forecast
which startups have
better become the
backbone of the new
educational sphere –
thus experimenting is
crucial

27. What’s happening to ‘industrial’ education model?
Changes in education systems strongly resemble the ones
that take place in the energy sector with the proliferation
of smart grids:
• ‘Industrial model’ (mass / standardized) education
system will provide the ‘base load’ educational service
for another 15-20 years, until efficient & sustainable
alternatives are developed, able to provide same or
higher quality services with lower cost
• However, industrial age education system will rapidly
lose its monopoly as more and more alternative
providers emerge (kids born in 2013/14 will be able to
get high quality / reasonable cost education without
ever entering school of university)
• Return on investment in ‘industrial model’ schools &
universities will become substantial lower (due to
effects of new education) and the industrial age
education systems in most countries will keep
deteriorating, increasing inequality within & between
education systems (with some leaders breaking far
ahead)
Cost of service
New Education
‘Industrial’ education
~2020-25
time
The speed of emergence of the New
Education will depend on whether
new solutions will be able to
provide same or better services for
lower cost in areas invested by the
state (socialization and social
adaptation, national security etc.)

28. Some hints for regulators (in countries aspiring
to participate in the creation of New Education)
‘Industrial model’ education
• Maintain quality of human
capital
• Focus investment on leaders
(with potential to grow into
world’s education elite) and
create possibility of
spillovers
• Change VET focus to address
‘the new unemployed’
problem
New Education
• Min intervention &
standardization to retain the
‘open field’
• Support startups in education
(e.g. create PPP funds)
• Support export of education
services
• Establish a regulator
responsible for the
development and support of
cutting edge technologies in
education

29. Hints for regulators (comprehensive chart)
‘Industrial model’ education policies
• Sufficient funding to maintain the existing quality level
• Focused investments
• Creation of leading institutions,
• Setting up ‘megaprojects’ to facilitate a breakthrough,
• Transforming universities into educational centers for regional
growth and development
• Rebuilding economy to accommodate waves of new technologies (also
solving the problem of the ‘new unemployed’)
• Supporting dialog between education and industry regarding
future skills needs
• Removing barriers that impede adaptation to industry
requirements
• Creation of programs to support self-employment
• Organization of partnerships between МООС-platforms and national
education systems
New education policies
• Creation of Ed Tech incubators for educators, programmers,
and entrepreneurs (in the form of incubators, startup
accelerators etc.)
• Financial and fiscal support for startups in education, incl.:
• Preferential tax regimes
• Establishment of specialized Ed Tech venture capital
funds in PPP format
• Development of standards for physiological and mental
safety of educational products (involving communities of
educators, healthcare specialists, psychologists, and
parents) – with gradual shift towards self-regulated
standards of New Education
General policies
• Equal rights for all educational providers to access key resources: students, development budgets, grants, subsidies etc.
• Possibility of tracking and recording individual’s achievements throughout his/her life and support of individual educational trajectories.
(This will allow to choose between ‘industrial model’ and ‘new education’ providers.)
• Special initiatives that help ‘stitching’ old and new education practices
• Support of educational services export (incl. hi-tech solutions)
• Support of research and experimentation in educational sphere (target grants to support development of educational technologies, creating
new possibilities for experimentation inside the system )
Transboundary / international policies
•
•
•
•
Promotion of inexpensive education technologies in developing countries (e.g. OLPC model)
Identification and global replication of educational practiced from developing countries (e.g. ‘learning from extremes’ model)
Establishment of global certification systems and global simulators for skill testing
Uniform rules of international talent market functioning: W(E)TO or Talent ‘Kyoto Protocol’

30. ‘Force fields’ in New Education
Players ‘PRO’
(revolutionaries and reformers)
Players ‘CONTRA’
(conservatives)
ICT industry
(Some) organized religions
Big business (entertainment, healthcare,
kids-oriented industries)
Regulators (domestic policy)
Frontline universities
(going with the trend)
Regulators (education as a
foreign policy instrument )
Ivory Tower Faculty & Management
Conservative parents
NGO education initiatives
‘Responsible’ parents
Independent & young researchers
Ambivalent players
(potential to influence)
‘New unemployed’ (due to tech change)
Employers
Leaders of emerging world (China, India)