The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!
The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.
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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
1. DYNAMIC Clouds
of
People &Things
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.orgCOCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
2. Outdated and outmoded
A dying world being overtaken by new freedoms
Ineffective
Expensive
Slow
Inefficient
Corporate
Process
3. PERSONAL DEVICES & NETWORKING
New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions
Greater creativity
Faster response
4. WearablE Tech to come
Easy to predict but hard to fathom!
50% of users give up within 2 weeks
Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone, Smart
Jewellery, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ??
Recent Fails: Smart Watch ??
A technology from > 20 years ago…
9. New industrial processes
Bio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation
Open Design
Open Hardware
Open Distribution
10. Logistic processes
Expensive, inefficient, damaging
Demands the economic tagging
and tracking of things…
!
materials
processing
production
h a n d l i n g
o w n e r s h i p
repurpose, recycle
We
have to
engineer
huge reductions in
material/energy waste
11. TECHNOLOGY NETWORKED SOCIETY
No accident but not 100% clear either
Speed
of
Change
Adaptability
and
Flexibility
New
Technology
Entries
Competition
Growing
Global
Market
Threat
Ecological
Humanitarian
Demands
BYOD
BMOB
OPEN
APPS
Social
Mobility
BIG
Data
12. SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES
Demands connected people & things
New economic thinking demands more
than $$$ decisions - we should at least
include ecological and societal impact…
…to stop producing more and more for the few
and start providing sufficient for the many……
13. INTERNET ENERGY COST
Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity
Raghavan and Ma 2011
Corporate Machines
Personal Devices
Networks
Switches
Support
Routers
Servers
Admin
Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
14. INTERNET OF THINGS ENERGY COST
Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity
Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi
network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients,
with configurations and operations
for 7Bn people & >50Bn
things online
15. A SCALEABLE SOLUTION IS REQUIRED
Using sustainable less energy than today
Must extend to all peoples and things across
the entire surface of the planet as
an essential par t
of a green agenda
that minimises global waste of
energy and materials in order to
satisfy all human demands and needs by
transforming industrial economies and living…
16. EXPONENTIALs
Confound people !
More data/information generated this year than in
the previous 5000…
….and next year and the year after, and…
Counterintuitive for decision
makers, managers,
politicians
17. Baby ~ 239 splits
Man ~ 244 splits
EXPONENTIALs
That build us !
18. WE DON’T GET scale
!
> 100 New Domains Registered
> 100 New LinkedIn Accounts
> 200 New Twitter Accounts
>15k Mobile App Downloads
> 14k New Adverts posted
> 700k Internet Searches
> 1k NewVideos Posted
> 1M FaceBook Updates
> 7k Flkr Pic Uploads
> 100k New Tweets
> 200M eMails Sent
> 400k Skype Calls
!
> 20M Messages
> 20k Smart Phones Shipped
> 7k Tablets Shipped
Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
19. NETWORK SCALE
Approximations to reality !
Telegraph
N
Telephone N2
Internet
2N
Clouds
N1/2 - estimate based on multiple clouds
!
No Infrastructure Nets N0.1 - a first guess !!
Based upon the average amount of traffic generated by ’N’ similar nodes
extended to include the aggregated energy consumption with each
generation of technology including reducing wireless span
20. c a u s a l i t y
Beyond Serendipity !
It is impossible to define the
o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g
factors, but they are far more
than chance and represent a
global need to ensure:
!
-
Sustainability
- Survivability
- Stability
- Security
22. 50
!
40
!
30
!
20
!
10
!
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9
Year
Human
Population
Things
on
Line
Bn
A
modest (pessimistic)
spread of projections
With the kind support of Lew
Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013
Aggregated PROJECTIONS
Using over 10 referenced citations
23. CLOUDS PLURAL
E vo l v i n g s p e c i e s
D e v i c e
C l u s t e r
D e s k
Ta b l e
Ro o m
H o m e
O f f i c e
B u i l d i n g
C a m p u s
To w n
C i t y
Re g i o n
C o u n t r y
C o m m e r c i a l
G o v e r n m e n t
B u s i n e s s
D e f e n c e
C h a r i t y
P r i v a t e
P u b l i c
P r i v a t e
C l o s e d
S e c r e t
C l o s e d
O p e n
+ + + +
Tr a n s i t o r y
M o b i l e
F i x e d
+ + + +
D y n a m i c
S t a t i c
D e c o y
Re a l
+ + +
24. Diverse/different/unpredictable routings,
connections and increasingly hidden and
disguised/distributed data & storage depth
Invisible
Clo ud
Corporate/Private
/Government
Clou d
Public
/Open
Cloud
Decoy
Clo ud
Storage
Clo ud
Back Up
Clo ud
Corporate/Private
/Government
Clo ud
HIDDEN DEPTH SECURITY
Dynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity
Reduced determinism
Distributed Storage
Different locations
Multiple providers
Many devices/OS
Distributed data
Config varieties
Dynamic Apps
Short sessions
Data half life
Transitory++
++++++
Clo ud
25. people and things
Greater freedom and diversity
Behaviours & habits evolving
Substantial cost savings
Obvious security risks
Benefits understood
BYOD new norm
More mobility
New freedoms
Enhanced security options
Need to share overrides all
Social net-working a vital tool
Amplified creativity and flexibility
Accelerating transient employments
Revitalising industry &economic growth
++++++
26. Things and things
Meeting ecological & people needs
Old industry methods cannot do the job
New technologies/techniques needed
Product/component tracking vital
Minimal energy cycles need
Material waste necessary
Maximal repurpose /reuse
Extreme recovery/recycle
Enhanced security options
Sufficient overrides luxury
Global not local application
More global applicability
Local creation & sourcing
Vastly reduced logistics
++++++
27. Connected on Off line
Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time
People to people
People to things
Things to things
Local storage
Presentations
Synchronising
Security scans
Development
Production
Packaging
Assembly
Design
++++++
28. Device to DEVICE
Meetings and file sharing
Container
to Ship
Ultra-Secure
DataTransport =The Pocket !
29. No wires no fuss
Getting rid of the knitting
The only wiring used
is to deliver power !
Operates on and off line for
entertainment and for work
34. Topping up atoms & bits
Service Info, Maps,
Local Data, Music,
Movies, Games,
Advertising +++
35. 3,4,5G nets
cannot support
the demands of
future traffic and
logistic networks…
but vehicle to vehicle
systems can…by providing
the most efficient and relevant
linking of users reporting their status
and sharing local/pertinent information
vehicle to vehicle
Low power, local, immediate
36. container to container
Ship to
shore
Container
to Ship
Low power, long life, self organising
Hostile environment,
battery life, & capacity demands
preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi
and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
37. container to container
Truck
to 3G
Container
toTruck
Truck to truck static or on the move
Truck Fill: UK ~17%
EU ~ 20%
US ~ 22%
Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
38. MASSIVE to Minuscule
Wireless nets are now predominantly local
1915 2015
103
106
109
1012
103
1
10 –3
AverageTransmitterPower
TotalofAllTransmitters
T
Kg
g
W
39. network implications
It is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics
Maxwell’s Field Theory
Shannon Information Theory
Basic Geometry
Range Equation
40. More wireless nodes
Means far more optical fibre feeders
FTTProperty
FTTCampus
FTTStreet
FTTHome
FTTOffice
FTTRoom
WiFi >> 3,4G
PON >> BPON
PON >> GPON
41. PERSPECTIVES
Important changes
BPON GPON invented to save optical
fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m,
but now it costs <2c/m we can
afford P2P fibre. It satisfies
all the equations of cost
reduced complexity,
reliability and future
proofing
WiFi ~ 97%
net traffic
3,4G ~ 3%
net traffic P2P PON
Cost/Benefit
GPON, BPON
Cost/Benefit
Mobile nets are minor players
when it comes to internet
connectivity and capacity
42. THE FUTURE 10 - 30 years out
Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power
Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop !
Hot Optical R&DTopics
Wireless over optical fibre
THz & GHz wave generation
Optical free space transmission
Network reliability & resilience
Seamless handovers /transitions
All optical switching, processing, coding
Wireless - Optical -Wireless translation
Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels