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DYNAMIC Clouds
of 	

People &Things
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.orgCOCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Outdated  and  outmoded
A dying world being overtaken by new freedoms
Ineffective
Expensive
Slow
Inefficient
Corporate
Process
PERSONAL  DEVICES  &  NETWORKING
New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions
Greater creativity
Faster response
WearablE  Tech  to  come
Easy to predict but hard to fathom!
50% of users give up within 2 weeks
Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone, Smart
Jewellery, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ??
Recent Fails: Smart Watch ??
A technology from > 20 years ago…
NEW  INDUSTRIAL  MODELS
Printing of flexible electronics and batteries
Colour programable
Integrated auto repair
New  industrial  processes
3, 4D printing + programming of biological forms
Electronic design
No assembly required
Networked distribution
No  casting  or  machining
> 300 superior parts are now printed
Better performance using less raw
material and energy with a higher
recycling %
FRont  line  production
Shipping designs and not parts
New  industrial  processes
Bio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation
Open Design
Open Hardware
Open Distribution
Logistic  processes
Expensive, inefficient, damaging
Demands the economic tagging
and tracking of things…
!
materials
processing
production
h a n d l i n g
o w n e r s h i p
repurpose, recycle
We
have to
engineer
huge reductions in
material/energy waste
TECHNOLOGY  NETWORKED  SOCIETY
No accident but not 100% clear either
Speed	

of 	

Change
Adaptability	

and	

Flexibility
New	

Technology	

Entries	

Competition
Growing	

Global
Market	

Threat	

Ecological	

Humanitarian	

Demands
BYOD	

BMOB	

OPEN	

APPS	

Social	

Mobility	

BIG	

Data
SUSTAINABLE  SOCIETIES
Demands connected people & things
New economic thinking demands more
than $$$ decisions - we should at least
include ecological and societal impact…
…to stop producing more and more for the few
and start providing sufficient for the many……
INTERNET  ENERGY  COST
Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity
Raghavan and Ma 2011
Corporate Machines
Personal Devices
Networks
Switches
Support
Routers
Servers
Admin
Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
INTERNET  OF  THINGS  ENERGY  COST
Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity
Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi
network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients,
with configurations and operations
for 7Bn people & >50Bn
things online
A  SCALEABLE  SOLUTION  IS  REQUIRED
Using sustainable less energy than today
Must extend to all peoples and things across 	

the entire surface of the planet as 	

an essential par t 	

of a green agenda 	

that minimises global waste of	

energy and materials in order to	

satisfy all human demands and needs by	

transforming industrial economies and living…
EXPONENTIALs
Confound people !
More data/information generated this year than in
the previous 5000… 	

….and next year and the year after, and…
Counterintuitive for decision
makers, managers,
politicians
Baby ~ 239 splits	

Man ~ 244 splits
EXPONENTIALs
That build us !
WE  DON’T  GET  scale
!
> 100 New Domains Registered	

> 100 New LinkedIn Accounts	

> 200 New Twitter Accounts	

>15k Mobile App Downloads	

> 14k New Adverts posted	

> 700k Internet Searches	

> 1k NewVideos Posted	

> 1M FaceBook Updates	

> 7k Flkr Pic Uploads	

> 100k New Tweets	

> 200M eMails Sent	

> 400k Skype Calls	

!
> 20M Messages
> 20k Smart Phones Shipped	

> 7k Tablets Shipped
Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
NETWORK  SCALE
Approximations to reality !
Telegraph 	

  N	

Telephone  N2	

Internet 	

  2N	

Clouds	

 	

  N1/2 - estimate based on multiple clouds	

!
No Infrastructure Nets  N0.1 - a first guess !!	

Based upon the average amount of traffic generated by ’N’ similar nodes	

extended to include the aggregated energy consumption with each	

generation of technology including reducing wireless span
c a u s a l i t y
Beyond Serendipity !
It is impossible to define the
o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g
factors, but they are far more
than chance and represent a
global need to ensure:	

!
-	

 Sustainability	

- Survivability	

- Stability	

- Security
FUTURE  PROJECTIONS
Extremely varied!
An aggregation of
Cisco, Intel, Oracle
Gartner McKinsey
A B I , B I I , I D C
GSMA +++ follows
50	

!
40	

!
30	

!
20	

!
10	

!
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9
Year
Human 	

Population
Things 	

on 	

Line
Bn
A
modest (pessimistic)	

spread of projections
With the kind support of Lew
Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013
Aggregated  PROJECTIONS
Using over 10 referenced citations
CLOUDS  PLURAL
E vo l v i n g s p e c i e s
D e v i c e
C l u s t e r
D e s k
Ta b l e
Ro o m
H o m e
O f f i c e
B u i l d i n g
C a m p u s
To w n
C i t y
Re g i o n
C o u n t r y
C o m m e r c i a l
G o v e r n m e n t
B u s i n e s s
D e f e n c e
C h a r i t y
P r i v a t e
P u b l i c
P r i v a t e
C l o s e d
S e c r e t
C l o s e d
O p e n
+ + + +
Tr a n s i t o r y
M o b i l e
F i x e d
+ + + +
D y n a m i c
S t a t i c
D e c o y
Re a l
+ + +
Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, 	

connections and increasingly hidden and 	

disguised/distributed data & storage depth
Invisible	

Clo ud
Corporate/Private	

/Government	

Clou d
Public	

/Open	

Cloud
Decoy	

Clo ud
Storage	

Clo ud
Back Up	

Clo ud
Corporate/Private	

/Government	

Clo ud
HIDDEN  DEPTH  SECURITY
Dynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity
Reduced determinism
Distributed Storage
Different locations
Multiple providers
Many devices/OS
Distributed data
Config varieties
Dynamic Apps
Short sessions
Data half life
Transitory++
++++++	

Clo ud
people  and  things
Greater freedom and diversity
Behaviours & habits evolving
Substantial cost savings
Obvious security risks
Benefits understood
BYOD new norm
More mobility
New freedoms
Enhanced security options
Need to share overrides all
Social net-working a vital tool
Amplified creativity and flexibility
Accelerating transient employments
Revitalising industry &economic growth
++++++
Things  and  things
Meeting ecological & people needs
Old industry methods cannot do the job
New technologies/techniques needed
Product/component tracking vital
Minimal energy cycles need
Material waste necessary
Maximal repurpose /reuse
Extreme recovery/recycle
Enhanced security options
Sufficient overrides luxury
Global not local application
More global applicability
Local creation & sourcing
Vastly reduced logistics
++++++
Connected  on  Off  line
Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time
People to people
People to things
Things to things
Local storage
Presentations
Synchronising
Security scans
Development
Production
Packaging
Assembly
Design
++++++
Device  to  DEVICE
Meetings and file sharing
Container 	

to Ship
Ultra-Secure
DataTransport =The Pocket !
No  wires  no  fuss
Getting rid of the knitting
The only wiring used	

is to deliver power !
Operates on and off line for
entertainment and for work
Device  to  PRODUCT
Monitoring the in:out and effect
Device  to  DEVICE
Off Line Medical Records
people  to  people
Augmented  Reality  Viewing
Cameras in the crowd covering every angle
Topping  up  atoms  &  bits
Service Info, Maps,
Local Data, Music,
Movies, Games,
Advertising +++
3,4,5G nets	

cannot support	

the demands of	

future traffic and	

logistic networks…	

but vehicle to vehicle	

systems can…by providing	

the most efficient and relevant	

linking of users reporting their status	

and sharing local/pertinent information 	

vehicle  to  vehicle
Low power, local, immediate
container  to  container
Ship to
shore
Container
to Ship
Low power, long life, self organising
Hostile environment,
battery life, & capacity demands
preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi
and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
container  to  container
Truck 	

to 3G
Container 	

toTruck
Truck to truck static or on the move
Truck Fill: UK ~17%	

	

 	

 	

 	

 	

 EU ~ 20%	

	

 	

 	

 	

 	

 US ~ 22%
Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
MASSIVE  to  Minuscule
Wireless nets are now predominantly local
1915 2015
103
106
109
1012
103
1
10 –3
AverageTransmitterPower
TotalofAllTransmitters
T
Kg
g
W
network  implications
It is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics
Maxwell’s Field Theory
Shannon Information Theory
Basic Geometry
Range Equation
More  wireless  nodes
Means far more optical fibre feeders
FTTProperty
FTTCampus
FTTStreet
FTTHome
FTTOffice
FTTRoom
WiFi >> 3,4G
PON >> BPON
PON >> GPON
PERSPECTIVES
Important changes
BPON GPON invented to save optical
fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m,
but now it costs <2c/m we can
afford P2P fibre. It satisfies
all the equations of cost
reduced complexity,
reliability and future
proofing
WiFi ~ 97%
net traffic
3,4G ~ 3%
net traffic P2P PON
Cost/Benefit
GPON, BPON
Cost/Benefit
Mobile nets are minor players
when it comes to internet
connectivity and capacity
THE  FUTURE  10  -  30  years  out
Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power
Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop !
Hot Optical R&DTopics
Wireless over optical fibre
THz & GHz wave generation
Optical free space transmission
Network reliability & resilience
Seamless handovers /transitions
All optical switching, processing, coding
Wireless - Optical -Wireless translation
Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels
Thank You
ca-global.org

cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure

  • 1. DYNAMIC Clouds of People &Things Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
  • 2. Outdated  and  outmoded A dying world being overtaken by new freedoms Ineffective Expensive Slow Inefficient Corporate Process
  • 3. PERSONAL  DEVICES  &  NETWORKING New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions Greater creativity Faster response
  • 4. WearablE  Tech  to  come Easy to predict but hard to fathom! 50% of users give up within 2 weeks Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone, Smart Jewellery, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ?? Recent Fails: Smart Watch ?? A technology from > 20 years ago…
  • 5. NEW  INDUSTRIAL  MODELS Printing of flexible electronics and batteries Colour programable Integrated auto repair
  • 6. New  industrial  processes 3, 4D printing + programming of biological forms Electronic design No assembly required Networked distribution
  • 7. No  casting  or  machining > 300 superior parts are now printed Better performance using less raw material and energy with a higher recycling %
  • 8. FRont  line  production Shipping designs and not parts
  • 9. New  industrial  processes Bio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation Open Design Open Hardware Open Distribution
  • 10. Logistic  processes Expensive, inefficient, damaging Demands the economic tagging and tracking of things… ! materials processing production h a n d l i n g o w n e r s h i p repurpose, recycle We have to engineer huge reductions in material/energy waste
  • 11. TECHNOLOGY  NETWORKED  SOCIETY No accident but not 100% clear either Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility New Technology Entries Competition Growing Global Market Threat Ecological Humanitarian Demands BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social Mobility BIG Data
  • 12. SUSTAINABLE  SOCIETIES Demands connected people & things New economic thinking demands more than $$$ decisions - we should at least include ecological and societal impact… …to stop producing more and more for the few and start providing sufficient for the many……
  • 13. INTERNET  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity Raghavan and Ma 2011 Corporate Machines Personal Devices Networks Switches Support Routers Servers Admin Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
  • 14. INTERNET  OF  THINGS  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients, with configurations and operations for 7Bn people & >50Bn things online
  • 15. A  SCALEABLE  SOLUTION  IS  REQUIRED Using sustainable less energy than today Must extend to all peoples and things across the entire surface of the planet as an essential par t of a green agenda that minimises global waste of energy and materials in order to satisfy all human demands and needs by transforming industrial economies and living…
  • 16. EXPONENTIALs Confound people ! More data/information generated this year than in the previous 5000… ….and next year and the year after, and… Counterintuitive for decision makers, managers, politicians
  • 17. Baby ~ 239 splits Man ~ 244 splits EXPONENTIALs That build us !
  • 18. WE  DON’T  GET  scale ! > 100 New Domains Registered > 100 New LinkedIn Accounts > 200 New Twitter Accounts >15k Mobile App Downloads > 14k New Adverts posted > 700k Internet Searches > 1k NewVideos Posted > 1M FaceBook Updates > 7k Flkr Pic Uploads > 100k New Tweets > 200M eMails Sent > 400k Skype Calls ! > 20M Messages > 20k Smart Phones Shipped > 7k Tablets Shipped Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
  • 19. NETWORK  SCALE Approximations to reality ! Telegraph N Telephone N2 Internet 2N Clouds N1/2 - estimate based on multiple clouds ! No Infrastructure Nets N0.1 - a first guess !! Based upon the average amount of traffic generated by ’N’ similar nodes extended to include the aggregated energy consumption with each generation of technology including reducing wireless span
  • 20. c a u s a l i t y Beyond Serendipity ! It is impossible to define the o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g factors, but they are far more than chance and represent a global need to ensure: ! - Sustainability - Survivability - Stability - Security
  • 21. FUTURE  PROJECTIONS Extremely varied! An aggregation of Cisco, Intel, Oracle Gartner McKinsey A B I , B I I , I D C GSMA +++ follows
  • 22. 50 ! 40 ! 30 ! 20 ! 10 ! 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 Year Human Population Things on Line Bn A modest (pessimistic) spread of projections With the kind support of Lew Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013 Aggregated  PROJECTIONS Using over 10 referenced citations
  • 23. CLOUDS  PLURAL E vo l v i n g s p e c i e s D e v i c e C l u s t e r D e s k Ta b l e Ro o m H o m e O f f i c e B u i l d i n g C a m p u s To w n C i t y Re g i o n C o u n t r y C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t B u s i n e s s D e f e n c e C h a r i t y P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e C l o s e d S e c r e t C l o s e d O p e n + + + + Tr a n s i t o r y M o b i l e F i x e d + + + + D y n a m i c S t a t i c D e c o y Re a l + + +
  • 24. Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, connections and increasingly hidden and disguised/distributed data & storage depth Invisible Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clou d Public /Open Cloud Decoy Clo ud Storage Clo ud Back Up Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clo ud HIDDEN  DEPTH  SECURITY Dynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity Reduced determinism Distributed Storage Different locations Multiple providers Many devices/OS Distributed data Config varieties Dynamic Apps Short sessions Data half life Transitory++ ++++++ Clo ud
  • 25. people  and  things Greater freedom and diversity Behaviours & habits evolving Substantial cost savings Obvious security risks Benefits understood BYOD new norm More mobility New freedoms Enhanced security options Need to share overrides all Social net-working a vital tool Amplified creativity and flexibility Accelerating transient employments Revitalising industry &economic growth ++++++
  • 26. Things  and  things Meeting ecological & people needs Old industry methods cannot do the job New technologies/techniques needed Product/component tracking vital Minimal energy cycles need Material waste necessary Maximal repurpose /reuse Extreme recovery/recycle Enhanced security options Sufficient overrides luxury Global not local application More global applicability Local creation & sourcing Vastly reduced logistics ++++++
  • 27. Connected  on  Off  line Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time People to people People to things Things to things Local storage Presentations Synchronising Security scans Development Production Packaging Assembly Design ++++++
  • 28. Device  to  DEVICE Meetings and file sharing Container to Ship Ultra-Secure DataTransport =The Pocket !
  • 29. No  wires  no  fuss Getting rid of the knitting The only wiring used is to deliver power ! Operates on and off line for entertainment and for work
  • 30. Device  to  PRODUCT Monitoring the in:out and effect
  • 31. Device  to  DEVICE Off Line Medical Records
  • 33. Augmented  Reality  Viewing Cameras in the crowd covering every angle
  • 34. Topping  up  atoms  &  bits Service Info, Maps, Local Data, Music, Movies, Games, Advertising +++
  • 35. 3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information vehicle  to  vehicle Low power, local, immediate
  • 36. container  to  container Ship to shore Container to Ship Low power, long life, self organising Hostile environment, battery life, & capacity demands preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
  • 37. container  to  container Truck to 3G Container toTruck Truck to truck static or on the move Truck Fill: UK ~17% EU ~ 20% US ~ 22% Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
  • 38. MASSIVE  to  Minuscule Wireless nets are now predominantly local 1915 2015 103 106 109 1012 103 1 10 –3 AverageTransmitterPower TotalofAllTransmitters T Kg g W
  • 39. network  implications It is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics Maxwell’s Field Theory Shannon Information Theory Basic Geometry Range Equation
  • 40. More  wireless  nodes Means far more optical fibre feeders FTTProperty FTTCampus FTTStreet FTTHome FTTOffice FTTRoom WiFi >> 3,4G PON >> BPON PON >> GPON
  • 41. PERSPECTIVES Important changes BPON GPON invented to save optical fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m, but now it costs <2c/m we can afford P2P fibre. It satisfies all the equations of cost reduced complexity, reliability and future proofing WiFi ~ 97% net traffic 3,4G ~ 3% net traffic P2P PON Cost/Benefit GPON, BPON Cost/Benefit Mobile nets are minor players when it comes to internet connectivity and capacity
  • 42. THE  FUTURE  10  -  30  years  out Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop ! Hot Optical R&DTopics Wireless over optical fibre THz & GHz wave generation Optical free space transmission Network reliability & resilience Seamless handovers /transitions All optical switching, processing, coding Wireless - Optical -Wireless translation Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels