Work or Play
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There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies! Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new. Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
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Work or Play
- 1. Work or P L AY COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org Peter Cochrane
- 2. Management Challenge Simultaneous change on all fronts! BYOD BMOBSustainabilit y Green W orking Flexible Workforce A d a p t a b i l i t y Speed of Change Innovation Accelerating Technology Failing! Security Failing IT Depts Cost$$ H o m e M o b ile W orkin g S o c i a l Working Dispersed T e a m s CLOUDSNetworks without infrastructure A I M o d e l l i n g Decision Support ! ! Growing Competition Customer Demand Market Erosion New Channels New Entries More for less Gov Regulation New Technology Trade Controls Skill Shortages Market Demands Taxation Limits Staff Movements Management Dwell Times A P P S A P I s
- 3. Axiomatic change Driven by technology answering or creating a need ! T e c h n o l o g y Only flows in one direction Amplifies human abilities Creates more technology Changes ever ything Empowers science O n l y a c c e l e ra t e s Suppor ts societies Promotes innovation Empowers individuals Dimensionally entropic Builds one layer at a time Favours the adaptive & adventurous I n n o v a t i o n M a r k e t s
- 4. Business AND RAPID CHANGE We now have to accept the counterintuitive ! An understanding of technology is unnecessary A good manager can manage any business You can buy all the expertise you need The bottom line is all that matters Customers know what they want The is always a simple solution +++ Social Nets are a waste of time Spread sheets are sufficient Computer games are toys Models are unnecessary Managers know best Twitter is trivial +++ Many established business wisdoms are wrong:
- 5. role reversal The young are full of tech wisdom and now teach the old ! R&D Defence Consumer Defence ⇐ Consumer ⇐ R&D School ➡ College ➡ University ➡ Computing Computing ➡ School ➡ College ➡ University ➡ “Specialised”
- 6. The world is no longer simple It is connected complex and non-linear ! - Social Networking leads to Social Selling - One complaint becomes a global tweet - Knowledge has a shortening half life - Information cannot be contained - Chaos is now the norm
- 7. complexity What does it mean ? ‘Not simple or obvious’ Resists analysis Resists modelling Denies simplification Unexpected outcomes Unintended consequences No generalised classifications No generalised mathematical theory No generalised description Mostly counter intuitive Generally confounding Conditionally difficult No, or, weak axioms Non commutative
- 8. non-linear What does it mean ? Outcome not related to input by scale and may see a different outcome every time even when starting conditions/inputs are the same ! How come?? - Minuscule/imperceptible differences in start conditions - Minuscule/imperceptible differences in the system state Small input changes can have a massive impact on the output
- 9. non-linear Conditionally Stable ! Take your hands and feet off the controls and it will continue to be stable and fly !
- 10. non-linear Conditionally Unstable ! Take your hands and feet off the controls and it is immediately out of control and will crash!
- 11. non-linear The likelihood of a Flat Spin (instability) increases with efficiency !
- 12. Natural & man made Complexity, Non-Linearity, Chaos are the natural order !
- 13. everyone is connected And soon so will everything!
- 14. A connected world What does this mean ?? The day of the independent variable is over The day of disconnected decisions and effect/s has gone Today unintended consequences rule…and there is no escape Managing without models and sufficient data is very dangerous
- 15. Change is no longer slow It is fast and speeding up ! Seemingly insignificant technologies can change everything
- 16. Change is not a constant It is exponential ! Over 1000 tweets/second Over 1Bn/month use FaceBook Over 50Bn Google searches/month Top 10 jobs of 2010 did not exist in 2004 25% have been in their current job for <1 year 50% have been in their current job for <5 years School student will have had > 15 jobs by age 35 !
- 17. Exponential What does it mean ?? More data/information will be generated this year than in the previous 5000 ! …and the year after that …and the year after, after that …and the year after, after, after…
- 18. Exponential Why it is a big deal !! Telephone Network Growth ∝ N2 ! Internet Network Growth ∝ 2N ! Cloud Network Growth ∝ N1/2 Increase nodes 10 fold = Energy Increase x 100 x 1000 x 3.6
- 19. THe Cloud(s) Plural not singular because the internet won’t scale! V a c u o u s Tr a n s i e n t M o b i l e Open Closed Visible Invisible P e r s o n a l C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t Local,Global People,Things Vehicles,Home Office.Campus Town,City Region,Country ZeroInfrastructureNets AnonymityWorking EmbeddedSecurity Auto-ImmuneSystem
- 20. education through a straw People focussed into a corner leading to unemployment! Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5 In evolutionary stasis Physics ART LAW Biology TECH Maths Chemistry Humanities Religion MediaIT Professions are now multidisciplinary
- 21. Education v ability Paper achievements will be outgunned by a proven abilty!
- 22. (rare) Multi-talented & flexible Doers and the solvers of problems!
- 23. HUmans are simple minded We cannot cope with or solve the complex! Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5 In evolutionary stasis Machines experience no such limitations !
- 24. Why do we employ People ? Because they are cheaper than robots !
- 25. MATERIALS & processing Organic + inorganic, printed, programmed, autonomous
- 26. No casting, Pressing, machining > 300 parts are now printed Complex components (eg gearboxes & manifolds) produced in one pass without assembly using less material whilst returning a superior performance Shipping designs and not products/goods…. ! Open Access Networks Software Apps APIs Design Printing Product Distribution ++++
- 27. FRont line production Shipping designs and not parts US Military are ahead of the game
- 28. AI - HUMAN Conflict or cooperation ?
- 29. IBM WATSON General knowledge The half life of knowledge: Physics <13 years Medicine < 4 years Technology <0.7 year Marine Biology < 0.5 year We need HELP!
- 30. job destruction Sweeping away the old Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services Investment bankers Agents Drivers Assistant IT support Technicians Researcher Train driver Forecasters Receptionist Stock Trader Tech support +++++ Warehouse People
- 31. job CREATION & ENHANCEMENT Bringing in the better and the new Polymath Fabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programme Complexity analysts Medics Scientists Engineers Modellers Designers Detectives Architects Consultants Technologists Entrepreneurs ++++ Security Experts
- 32. BIG/META DATA - BIG RETURNS The power of analysis & prediction Who you know and how and why you communicate Who knows you and how and why you communicate What, where, when, why, how you search for What, where, when, why, how they search for What, where, when, why, how you travel What, where, when, why, how they travel What, where, when, why, how you buy What, where, when, why, how they buy What, where, when, why, how you do What, where, when, why, how they do +++ What, where, when, how you live and work What, where, when, how they live and work
- 33. healthcare transformed Sensor technologies available to all The Star Trek ‘Bones’ Medical S c a n n e r i s a f u n c t i o n i n g prototype and not a science project or a dream!
- 34. FOOds production transformed Robotic farmers in swarms A f u n c t i o n i n g prototype today a n d a r e a l i t y tomorrow ?!
- 35. future employment/employees New modes and different expectations
- 36. the rise of the Connected New modes and expectations Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility New Technology Entries Competition Growing Global Market Threat Ecological Humanitarian Demands BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social Mobility Clouds BIG Data
- 37. is sufficient No One security technique The concatenation of multiple low cost methods rapidly delivers a very high level of protection Habits Personal Protocols Locations Networks Biometrics Knowledge ++++++++Clouds inherently more secure than any prior networks
- 38. More empowering than anything we have had before THE future is personal Personal not Corporate Computing
- 39. Unacceptable Ineffective and unuseful IT Dept’s
- 40. Can they cope with the sophistication of the new threat scenarios ? Do they have the same ability and resources as Cisco, IBM, Google,Apple et al working together... security Are you protected, is your team up to par ?
- 41. - Unsure - Unaware - Uninformed - Underpowered - Blissfully ignorant Pre - occupied by: Office upgrades LAN provision Old services Operations +++ security Or are they in the little league ?
- 42. new workforce Tech savvy, fully equipped, no respect for IT Depts!
- 43. The see social networking is a vital a tool... ...as their choice of equipment, apps, web sites and ways of working... ...they don’t eMail, theyTXT and IM ! ...they don’t conceal or hide they share ! new workforce No loyalty or allegiances, driven by pure interest !
- 44. T h e y s e e I T a s ‘personal’ and not ‘corporate’ - ! Thinking, working & acting differently... …creating new fast,innovative solutions, groups, and operations... new workforce Working on the fly using what they choose!
- 45. Management Rapid change is now the biggest challenge Management attitudes, working and operational practices, will have to change if companies are to keep up and compete on the world stage ...
- 46. Companies The death of hierarchy ! unchanging Old organisational structures work for situations where all is known and In situations of rapid change where flexibility is the hallmark of success, then organisational hierarchies are generally a disaster
- 47. Companies The Rise of Autonomy ! Small, specialised, and skilled teams highly focused on creativity problem solving, getting results fast, to then reshape and reform to meet the next set of demands The Art of War Tsun Zu …is now more applicable to modern nations than: The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith
- 48. case study: XYZ Company Security market leader • Open entry - no airlocks • Open plan - no offices • 60% seating provision • Flexible working • Mobile working • Home working • BYOD • BMOB • Virtual PBX • VOIP PBX Client • No wired infrastructure • Power sockets only • Cloud provision • App freedom • ISP freedom • Open access • Open Apps • Transients • Associates • Part timers • Contractors • Multi Continent • +++
- 49. THE BIG CHAllengeS Over the next 10 years + • Fewer Full Time and FTE • Shorter FT dwell times • Shorter project times • Changing processes • New technologies • More competition • More contractors • More transients • More machines • Faster change
- 50. What we know for sure.... In the next phase the winning companies and countries will have taken risks, and dared to be different... ...very different...
- 51. DEEP(ER) DIVE Supporting material on every aspect covered here ! In Depth Slide Sets: http://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane Published Articles & Papers:http://www.cochrane.org.uk
- 52. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s