This document summarizes key points from a presentation on the state of online learning over the past decade and implications for the future. It notes that the online education market has become more competitive as more programs have become available in recent years. As a result, some providers like 2U have had to cut expected enrollment numbers and marketing budgets. The presentation addresses how online learning is moving beyond just digitizing traditional classes and how this shift could significantly impact higher education.

1. A New Decade in Online
Learning:
Where did we come from and
where are we going?
February 19, 2020
http://bit.ly/flvchill20
Phil Hill (@PhilOnEdTech)

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8. • The primary change 2U sees is for
online education overall and not
just for OPM-based programs –
there are many more online
offerings available in just the past
few years, leading to a much more
competitive, regional market.
Students more and more are
looking for online programs from
schools near them. One effect is
that it is much harder to scale
programs to several hundred
students.
• As a result, 2U is changing their
outlook, cutting down expected
new graduate program starts
by at least half over the next
year or two, and cutting back
on marketing spend per
program as the last 50 students
to recruit are the toughest ones
(paraphrase). And they are
cutting expectations for
enrollment per cohort across
their portfolio.
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12. Implication: Marketing & recruitment
increasingly difficult and expensive
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14. Source: https://vimeo.com/79954057 14

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16. Implication: Market for students –
a difference in kind, not degree

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23. Implication: Degrees and
certificates and differentiation

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25. Photo Credit: www.mummymummymum.com 25

26. Photo Credit: http://www.youtube.com/user/mtmuzic 26

27. Implication: Inflection Point

28. We are in the midst of an inflection point
in higher education driven by mainstream
adoption, different platform designs, and
moving beyond the digitization of
traditional classroom.
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29. Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxZ4YVw2_NI 29

30. Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSLbTwNCa48 30

31. Source: http://californiacommunitycolleges.cccco.edu/Portals/0/Reports/2017-DE-Report-Final-ADA.pdf 31

32. Addressing the Questions

33. Description
As online and hybrid education enters its
third decade, there are significant efforts
to move beyond the virtualization of
traditional face-to-face classroom and to
also move beyond earlier business
models. This shift has the potential to be
more significant than just the number of
learners in online programs.
This talk will explore how the influence of
online learning and new technologies
are impacting the future of higher
education.
• What is the current state of
online learning and will the
growth continue?
• Have some specific online
programs become saturated in
the market?
• How has the management of
online learning initiatives
changed in recent years?
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34. “When U.S. News published its ranking of online MBA programs
last month, it ranked nearly 270 different online MBA programs,
up from 180 in 2017. And that doesn't include all the online MBA
programs available in the world. The result: Though a rapidly
growing segment of the management education market, the
online MBA category has already become crowded and
commoditized.”
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/poetsandquants/2018/02/20/is-getting-an-online-mba-worth-it
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35. Online Education: Key Trends
• Moving away from “Deans Gone Wild” toward a more
coordinated institutional approach, even with different
choices per program
• Online market itself is crowded – competition for students
• Increased focus on oversight, transparency through regulation
• Increased focus on economics – for the student and for the
institution
• Increased focus on engaging course design
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36. phil@mindwires.com
@PhilOnEdTech
philonedtech.com
mindwires.com