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公共资源、共享经济乃⾄
部⻔墙背后的系统思考
TiD2019质量竞争⼒⼤会系统思考分论坛
画出回路
病毒式营销
利⽤⽤户进⾏⾃传播,⽤户群体规模变得
越来越⼤
S
S
推荐的
⽤户数
⽤户规模 R
倒⽔
把⽔壶⾥的⽔倒到杯⼦⾥,倒8成满
S
S
实际⽔位
⽬标⽔位
⽔位差
倾斜⻆度
B
S
O
冰⼭的⼀⻆
企鹅⽣活在漂浮的冰⼭上⾯,他们知道海床上有蛤蜊, 可是他们没有⾜够的肺活量深
⼊海底打捞蛤蜊, 遥远的海象拥有技术, 可是没有资源。 有⼀天, 企鹅和海象达成
了协议:海象为企鹅收成蛤蜊, 企鹅提供蛤蜊⻝⽤权给海象作为回报,海象不可以吃
企鹅。协议达成后,⾮常成功。 越来越多的海象和企鹅也来到了这块领地。 于是有更
多的蛤蜊被打捞上来,更多的海象跑过来,更多的企鹅过来。。。根据数字统计,岛
上可以容纳百倍于当前的海象及企鹅。




更多的企鹅, 更多的海象,更多的蛤蜊过来。。。冰⼭上成⽴了花店,度假村, 蛤蜊
酒吧等等。 似乎所有的事情在向好的⽅向发展,可是⼜有点什么不对。




直到有⼀天, ⼀只海象压扁了⼀位企鹅先⽣, 导致了双⽅的冲突。 冰⼭上的领导请来
了顾问团,企鹅们也出了备忘录, 提醒海象不要压到企鹅,他们还花了昂贵的价钱请
来了顾问,⿎励每个企鹅和海象参加训练营, 作敏感度测验。 但是冲突有增⽆减,其
他的企鹅和海象听到消息,决定不搬过来了, 岛上的企鹅也在想是否打包离开。 于是
他们开始思考,是否有⼀些⼤家看不到的部分。 企鹅和海象都是地域性的动物, 但是
为什么现在才开始冲突呢?是否蛤蜊吃得太多让⼤家情绪不稳定? 或者以后改吃低蛋
⽩的⻝物? 这是⼀个很⼤的冰⼭,有⾜够的空间,为什么⼤家不分开⼀些住呢?
可⻝⽤的
蛤蜊数量
企鹅数量
+
海象数量
冰⼭的吸引⼒
冰⼭的
可使⽤空间
冲突
S
S
O
O
O
S
R B
成⻓上限
促成成⻓的要素 成⻓的情况 抑制成⻓的要素
S
S OO
S
R B
限制因素
的情况
游戏:捕⻥达⼈
1.每个渔夫⼩组讨论,写下⾃⼰每年的捕⻥期望值,放⼊渔
船⾥


2.海⾥的现存⻥量和你的期望值以及⼀点点运⽓会决定你的
收获


• If 你的期望值⼤于海⾥现存⻥量,你空仓⽽归

• Else 你收获你的期望值

• ⼤海会随机决定哪艘渔船先“捕⻥”

3.每个⼩组记录每年的期望值和收获值
每年⻥会再⽣:再⽣后⻥的总数 = 原来的⻥数< 25 ? 原来的⻥数*2 : 50
画出期望值和实际收获
的BOT
画出CLD
总体捕⻥活动
S
S
总捕⻥量
S
A船的捕⻥期望
A船的捕⻥收获
S SR
B船的捕⻥期望
B船的捕⻥收获
R
海洋的总⻥量
S
O
S
B
B
再⽣⻥量
S
O
B
公地悲剧
共地悲剧
如何解决问题?
共享经济
共享单⻋
• 2014年,ofo成⽴,初期仅在北⼤校园内供学⽣使⽤,⽽后迅速蹿红,扫码、⽆桩、电⼦锁等设计引爆媒
体社交平台,共享单⻋在街头巷尾被热议。第⼀个吃螃蟹的⼈也牢牢占据着⽇后的⾏业榜单:据统计,截
⾄2015年10⽉底,ofo单⻋投放数量仅2万辆,2017这⼀数字达到了2300万。

• ⽬睹了ofo、摩拜等企业成功的初试⽔,2016年开始,诸多共享单⻋企业纷纷⼊场。据不完全统计,2016
年有超过20多家共享单⻋企业共存。同时,各公司纷纷融资,⼀年间,共享单⻋⾏业融资额超过了30亿
元,除了ofo、摩拜以外,⼩鸣单⻋、⼩蓝单⻋等中⼩规模企业迅速崛起。伴随着⼀轮轮的融资,共享单
⻋⾏业看起来似乎充满了前景与活⼒。与此同时,共享单⻋⽤户规模持续增⻓,2016年共享单⻋的⽤户规
模达到了1886万⼈,同⽐增⻓达到惊⼈的700%。

• 硬件成本烧钱、运营成本过⾼、价格战下微薄的收⼊等原因渐渐让单⻋企业捉襟⻅肘;对于“互联⽹单⻋
企业“、”共享经济“等概念过了新鲜劲的⽤户也渐渐失去了骑⾏的动⼒;执着于造⻋占领市场、忽视打造硬
件的企业没能给⽤户提供更舒适的乘⻋体验……在这种恶性循环下,共享单⻋逐渐成为了⽤户和投资⽅眼
中的”鸡肋“。

• 2016年融资额排名第三的⼩鸣单⻋,在2018年3⽉宣告破产,成为了⾸个破产的共享单⻋品牌。继⼩鸣单
⻋之后,酷奇单⻋、悟空单⻋等企业也因类似的原因相继停运、倒闭。2018年2⽉时,交通运输部副部⻓
刘⼩明透露,全国77家共享单⻋企业中有20余家倒闭或者停⽌运营。2018年12⽉下旬开始,ofo深陷退押
⾦⼤潮。
共享资源的规模
资源使⽤率
对消费者
的吸引⼒
成本
收益
S
O
O
S
对资源共享者
的吸引⼒
价格
R
R
S
S
S
O
对公共环境的破坏
对公共服务的需求
B S
政府控制
的⼒度
对既有经济的冲击
固定成本
运营成本
共享资源的规模
资源使⽤率
对消费者
的吸引⼒
成本
收益
S
O
O
S
对资源共享者
的吸引⼒
价格
R
R
S
S
S
O
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
B
B
部⻔墙
⾼优先级任务的总数量
S
S
⾼优先级任务
的平均响应时间
S
销售A把⽀持任务贴为
⾼优先级的数量
销售A的⽬标达成
S
S
R
销售B把⽀持任务贴为
⾼优先级的数量
销售B的⽬标达成
R
⽀持团队⼯作在
⾼优先级
任务的容量
S
O
S
B
B
S
S

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The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing