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Pioneer Compass: A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets

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Pioneer’s Quarterly Compass and Capital Markets update explores current economic data and changing market conditions.

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Pioneer Compass: A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets

  1. 1. Pioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets Q1 2017 / As of January 2017 The views expressed in this presentation are those of Pioneer, and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Pioneer investment product.
  2. 2. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 2 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. US Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix
  3. 3. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 3 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2016: Low Interest Rates Have Benefited Many Asset Classes 2016 Index Performance Source: Pioneer Investments. Bloomberg data as of December 31, 2016. Indices used to represent asset classes, commodities and currencies include: Emerging Markets Stocks - MSCI Emerging Markets Index. US Large Caps – S&P 500 Index. World Stocks - MSCI All Country (AC) World Daily Index. US Small Caps – Russell 2000. Non-US Developed - MSCI EAFE Index. Global Bonds - BBGBarc Global Aggregate Bond Index. Emerging Markets Bonds - Bloomberg Emerging Markets Index. US Treasuries - Bloomberg US 7-10 Treasuries. US High Yield - BoA ML US High Yield Bond Index US IG Corporate - BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond. Municipals –BofA ML Municipal Bond Index Bank Loans – S&P LSTA Leveraged Performing Loan Index. Gold – Bloomberg Spot Price. West Texas Crude (Oil) - Bloomberg West Texas Intermediate Crude Index. Global Commodities – Bloomberg Commodities Index. Dollar Spot – BBGBarc US Dollar Spot Index. Yen-USD X-RATE - Japanese Yen/USD Exchange Rate Bloomberg. Euro-USD X-RATE - Euro/USD Exchange Rate Bloomberg. Sterling-USD X-Rate - British Pound/USD Exchange Rate Bloomberg. See pages 52-56 for more information. 21.3% 12.0% 11.3% 7.9% 1.6% 17.5% 10.1% 9.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 45.0% 11.4% 8.1% 3.6% 2.8% -3.2% -16.3%-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% USSmallCaps USLargeCaps EMStocks WorldStocks Non-USDeveloped USHighYield BankLoans EMBonds USInvestGrade GlobalBonds USTreasuries Municipals Oil GlobalCommodities Gold DOLLARSPOT JPY-USDX-RATE EUR-USDX-RATE GBP-USDX-RATE Equity Fixed Income Commodities Currencies
  4. 4. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 4 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Economic Update We expect: Modest growth in the short term pending implementa- tion of President Trump’s proposed policies. The US to move from monetary to fiscal stimulus. Corporate earnings should improve next year, even with some pressure from wage increases. Emerging markets are selectively attractive despite a stronger dollar An immediate trend will be a higher dollar due to strong relative growth in US, interest rate differentials and diverging monetary policies. More Economic Information Overview & Global Context Page 3 US Economic Outlook Page 4 Appendix Pages 43-47 As of December 31, 2016
  5. 5. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 5 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Market Update We believe: Developed market sovereigns, including most US government debt, still look unattractive. Select emerging market sovereigns may be attractive. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue to raise rates on continued economic improvement and a modest upturn in inflation. Corporate credit offers value. Floating rate securities may be attractive to hedge interest rate risk. Global GDP growth, modest inflation, and interest rates may all move higher, which can benefit stocks. Quality stocks may rebound. Volatility will likely persist from uncertainty over new policies out of Washington. Cyclical and economically sensitive companies could benefit. Increased dollar exposure may benefit investors from a higher interest rate backdrop. More Market Information Equity Markets Pages 19-30 Fixed Income Pages 31-42 Alternatives Pages 43-45 Appendix Pages 43-47 As of December 31, 2016
  6. 6. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 6 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10 Years Annualized MSCI EM 39.42% Treasuries 13.98% MSCI EM 78.51% Russell 2000 26.85% Munis 10.70% MSCI EM 18.22% Russell 2000 38.82% S&P 500 13.69% Munis 3.30% Russell 2000 21.31% US HY 7.45% MSCI EAFE 11.17% BBGBarc US Agg. 5.24% US HY 58.21% MSCI EM 18.88% Treasuries 9.79% MSCI EAFE 17.32% S&P 500 32.39% Munis 9.05% S&P 500 1.38% US HY 17.13% Russell 2000 7.07% BBGBarc Global Agg. 9.48% BBGBarc Global Agg. 4.79% Bank Loans 52.53% US HY 15.12% BBGBarc US Agg. 7.84% Russell 2000 16.35% MSCI EAFE 22.78% Treasuries 6.02% Treasuries 0.83% S&P 500 11.96% S&P 500 6.95% Treasuries 9.06% Munis -2.47% MSCI EAFE 31.78% S&P 500 15.06% BBGBarc Global Agg. 5.64% S&P 500 16.00% US HY 7.44% BBGBarc US Agg. 5.97% BBGBarc US Agg. 0.55% MSCI EM 11.19% Bank Loans 4.84% BBGBarc US Agg. 6.97% US HY -26.16% Russell 2000 27.17% Bank Loans 10.38% US HY 4.98% US HY 15.81% Bank Loans 5.41% Russell 2000 4.89% Bank Loans 0.10% Bank Loans 10.36% BBGBarc US Agg. 4.34% S&P 500 5.49% Bank Loans -29.32% S&P 500 26.46% MSCI EAFE 7.75% S&P 500 2.11% Bank Loans 9.76% BBGBarc US Agg. -2.02% US HY 2.45% MSCI EAFE -0.81% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.65% Munis 4.25% Munis 3.36% Russell 2000 -33.79% Munis 12.91% BBGBarc US Agg. 6.54% Bank Loans 1.50% Munis 6.78% Munis -2.55% Bank Loans 1.82% BBGBarc Global Agg. -3.15% BBGBarc Global Agg. 2.09% Treasuries 4.03% Bank Loans 2.04% S&P 500 -37.00% BBGBarc Global Agg. 6.93% Treasuries 5.88% Russell 2000 -4.18% BBGBarc Global Agg. 4.32% BBGBarc Global Agg. -2.60% BBGBarc Global Agg. 0.59% Russell 2000 -4.41% Treasuries 1.14% BBGBarc Global Agg. 3.29% US HY 1.87% MSCI EAFE -43.38% BBGBarc US Agg. 5.93% BBGBarc Global Agg. 5.54% MSCI EAFE -12.14% BBGBarc US Agg. 4.21% MSCI EM -2.60% MSCI EM -2.19% US HY -4.47% MSCI EAFE 1.00% MSCI EM 1.84% Russell 2000 -1.57% MSCI EM -53.33% Treasuries -3.72% Munis 2.38% MSCI EM -18.42% Treasuries 2.16% Treasuries -3.35% MSCI EAFE -4.90% MSCI EM -14.92% Munis 0.25% MSCI EAFE 0.75% 10 Years of Asset Class Returns Asset class performance varies year over year Source: Bloomberg. Annual data as of December 31, 2016. Chart returns updated annually. Asset classes represented by the following indices: US Stocks – S&P 500 Index. Small Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 Index. US High Yield Bonds - BofA ML US High Yield Bond Index. Bank Loans - S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Municipals - BBGBarc Municipal Index. US Treasuries - BofA ML US Treasury Master Index. US Bonds – BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index. Global Investment Grade Bonds – BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index. Non-US Developed - MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) Growth Index. Emerging Market Stocks - MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Free Index. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices.
  7. 7. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 7 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10 Years Annualized Munis 2.37% BBGBarc US Agg. 6.09% BBGBarc US Agg. 3.34% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.91% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.35% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.01% Bank Loans 1.69% Bank Loans 1.76% Munis 2.48% Bank Loans 1.03% BBGBarc US Agg. 3.31% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.64% Treasuries 6.76% Treasuries 5.63% Treasuries 4.26% Munis 3.27% Bank Loans 2.27% BBGBarc US Agg. 3.19% Munis 2.15% Bank Loans 2.61% BBGBarc US Agg. 1.07% Treasuries 4.44% Treasuries 3.73% Munis 8.10% Munis 5.79% Munis 4.37% Treasuries 3.66% BBGBarc Global Agg. 2.99% Treasuries 3.23% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.31% BBGBarc US Agg. 2.95% Treasuries 1.36% Munis 4.54% BBGBarc Global Agg. 4.58% BBGBarc Global Agg. 9.70% BBGBarc Global Agg. 8.35% Bank Loans 4.38% BBGBarc Global Agg. 5.12% Treasuries 3.15% Munis 4.53% Treasuries 2.44% BBGBarc Global Agg. 3.08% Munis 1.39% BBGBarc Global Agg. 5.92% Bank Loans 4.67% Bank Loans 16.37% Bank Loans 10.14% BBGBarc Global Agg. 6.58% Bank Loans 6.05% Munis 3.52% US HY 4.77% BBGBarc Global Agg. 4.01% Treasuries 4.07% US HY 1.75% Bank Loans 8.35% US HY 6.16% S&P 500 21.02% US HY 13.03% US HY 7.17% US HY 9.55% US HY 3.99% BBGBarc Global Agg. 4.84% US HY 4.53% US HY 6.41% BBGBarc Global Agg. 2.12% US HY 10.75% MSCI EAFE 9.62% US HY 21.68% S&P 500 22.28% S&P 500 19.26% S&P 500 15.94% S&P 500 10.52% S&P 500 8.48% S&P 500 8.26% S&P 500 13.66% S&P 500 2.97% S&P 500 15.28% S&P 500 9.66% MSCI EAFE 27.02% MSCI EAFE 25.62% MSCI EM 21.08% MSCI EAFE 19.52% Russell 2000 12.94% Russell 2000 10.90% MSCI EAFE 9.69% Russell 2000 14.48% MSCI EAFE 3.88% MSCI EAFE 18.62% Russell 2000 12.42% Russell 2000 28.49% MSCI EM 28.85% MSCI EAFE 22.99% Russell 2000 23.27% MSCI EAFE 16.68% MSCI EM 11.81% MSCI EM 13.59% MSCI EAFE 15.24% MSCI EM 5.13% Russell 2000 20.14% MSCI EM 18.42% MSCI EM 37.46% Russell 2000 29.35% Russell 2000 24.26% MSCI EM 24.50% MSCI EM 19.68% MSCI EAFE 12.15% Russell 2000 15.52% MSCI EM 17.67% Russell 2000 5.28% MSCI EM 23.44% 10 Years of Asset Class Standard Deviation Relative volatility tends to persist over time Source: Bloomberg. Annual data as of December 31, 2016. Chart returns updated annually. Standard Deviation - A statistical measure of the historic volatility of a portfolio; a lower standard deviation indicates historically less volatility Asset classes represented by the following indices: US Stocks – S&P 500 Index. Small Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 Index. US High Yield Bonds - BofA ML US High Yield Bond Index. Bank Loans - S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Municipals - BBGBarc Municipal Index. US Treasuries - BofA ML US Treasury Master Index. US Bonds – BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index. Global Investment Grade Bonds – BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index. Non-US Developed - MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) Growth Index. Emerging Market Stocks - MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices.
  8. 8. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 8 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10 Years Annualized Energy 35.3% Staples -15.4% Technology 61.7% Real Estate 28.0% Utilities 19.9% Financials 28.7% Discretionary 43.1% Utilities 29.0% Discretionary 10.1% Energy 27.4% Staples 10.1% Materials 22.4% Health Care -22.8% Materials 48.6% Discretionary 27.7% Staples 14.0% Discretionary 23.9% Health Care 41.5% Real Estate 26.1% Health Care 6.9% Telecom 23.5% Technology 9.9% Utilities 19.4% Utilities -29.0% Discretionary 41.3% Industrials 26.7% Health Care 12.7% Telecom 18.3% Industrials 40.6% Health Care 25.3% Staples 6.6% Financials 22.7% Discretionary 9.6% Technology 16.3% Telecom -30.5% Industrials 20.9% Materials 22.2% Real Estate 7.9% Health Care 17.9% Financials 35.6% Technology 20.1% Technology 5.9% Industrials 18.8% Health Care 9.6% Staples 14.2% Discretionary -33.5% Real Estate 20.8% Energy 20.4% Telecom 6.3% Real Estate 16.2% Technology 28.4% Staples 16.0% Telecom 3.4% Materials 16.7% Industrials 7.8% Industrials 12.0% Energy -34.9% Health Care 19.7% Telecom 19.0% Discretionary 6.1% Industrials 15.3% Staples 26.1% Financials 15.2% Real Estate 1.2% Utilities 16.3% Utilities 7.0% Telecom 11.9% Industrials -39.9% Financials 17.1% Staples 14.1% Energy 4.7% Materials 15.0% Materials 25.6% Industrials 9.8% Financials -1.6% Technology 13.8% Telecom 6.4% Health Care 7.1% Technology -43.1% Staples 14.9% Financials 12.1% Technology 2.4% Technology 14.8% Energy 25.0% Discretionary 9.7% Industrials -2.6% Discretionary 6.0% Materials 6.0% Discretionary -13.2% Real Estate -45.0% Energy 13.8% Technology 10.2% Industrials -0.6% Staples 10.8% Utilities 13.2% Materials 6.9% Utilities -4.8% Staples 5.4% Energy 4.4% Financials -18.6% Materials -45.7% Utilities 11.9% Utilities 5.5% Materials -9.8% Energy 4.6% Telecom 11.5% Telecom 3.0% Materials -8.4% Real Estate 1.1% Real Estate 0.8% Real Estate -20.5% Financials -55.3% Telecom 8.9% Health Care 2.9% Financials -17.1% Utilities 1.3% Real Estate -1.5% Energy -7.8% Energy -21.1% Health Care -2.7% Financials -0.4% Performance of the S&P 500 Sectors Sector leadership changes as a result of economic conditions Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2016. Chart shows returns for the sectors that make up the S&P 500 Index, a commonly used measure of the broad US stock market.
  9. 9. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 9 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Historically Investors Have Had to Assume Higher Risk in their Portfolios . . . in order to generate similar levels of return 4% 12%5% 13%14% 22% 5% 8% 20% 33% 100% Bonds 52% 12% 1995 2005 2015 Projected Risk and Return of Different Asset Mixes Bonds US Large Cap US Small Cap Non-US Equity Real Estate Private Equity Expected Return Standard Deviation 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 6.0% 8.9% 17.2% Charts show the asset mix and associated risk needed in order to achieve an expected 7.5% return at different points in history based on Callan Associates’ forward- looking capital market projections in each of the years shown (1995, 2005 and 2015). Source: Callan Associates research. Last data point available December 31, 2015. Asset classes represented by the following indices: Bonds - BBGBarc Aggregate Bond Index, BBGBarc Global Aggregate Bond Index ex USD, BBGBarc Long Government/Credit Index and 90-day US T-Bills. US Large Cap - S&P 500 Index. US Small Cap - Russell 2500 Index. Non-US Equity - MSCI World index ex USA and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Real Estate - NCREIF Property Index. Private Equity – Cambridge Associates Private Equity Index. See pages 52-56 for more index information. Standard Deviation - A statistical measure of the historic volatility of a portfolio; a lower standard deviation indicates historically less volatility.
  10. 10. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 10 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2017 - 2018 GDP Outlook Source: Pioneer Investments’ forecasts. Data as of December 31, 2016. GDP Growth for Main Economic Regions Our US GDP estimate in 2017: Over 2.0% real growth 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 WORLD US EURO AREA UK JAPAN CHINA EM GDPGrowth(%) 2016 2017 2018
  11. 11. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 11 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Central Bank Outlook Tightening Hold Easing EM: Pressure to ease remains widespread, with few exceptions. However, less room in 2017 than in 2016. BoJ: Maintain accom- modative monetary policy. PBoC: Move from easing to neutral stance due to pickup in economic growth and rising inflation pressures. Fed: Following a year delay between two rate hikes, we expect a pickup in the pace of tightening in 2017 - at least two hikes - possibly three if the economy shows signs of overheating and inflation overshooting. ECB: Easy monetary policy has run its course. Barring a downturn in economic activity or a return of deflation, we expect gradual tapering in the second half of 2017. BoE: Has moved to a neutral stance that it will maintain into 2018 as Brexit negotiations develop. Continental Europe (SNB, Riksbank): Expected to shadow the ECB. Note: Federal Reserve (Fed), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of England (BOE), Peoples Bank of China (PBoC), Bank of Japan (BOJ), Riksbank (Swedish Central bank). European Central Bank (ECB) Emerging Markets (EM). Source: Pioneer Investments, Bloomberg. data as of December 31, 2016.
  12. 12. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 12 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. US Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix
  13. 13. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 13 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 We Expect Continued Strength in Consumer Spending in 2017 Source: Bloomberg updated as of January 5, 2017. Last data points: GDP 9/30/16; Consumer Credit, 9/30/16; Auto Sales, 12/31/16, Home Sales, 11/30/16. -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Quarterly GDP Change from Year Ago Quarter 3.5% 3Q16 1.7% GDP Rebounded in the 3rd Quarter After a Subdued First Half -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 IndexLevel Consumer Credit Borrowing 0 5 10 15 20 25 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 MillionsUnits Auto Sales 18.3 0 0.5 1 1.5 0 2 4 6 8 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Thousands MillionsUnits Home Sales Existing Home Sales (Left) New One Family Houses (Right)
  14. 14. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 14 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Solid Employment Picture with Wages Rising Source: Bloomberg. Last data point for Unemployment November 30, 2016. The JOLTS Report is the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Job Openings are all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. Wages are average hourly earnings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 11/30/16. J O L T S 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 1 2 3 4 5 6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UnemploymentRate Millionspeople Job Openings Quits Layoffs and Discharges Unemployment Rate (Right) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Manufacturing Wages Total NonFarm -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Info Tech Wages -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Leisure and Hospitality Wages 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Education and Health Services Wages
  15. 15. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 15 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Change in Labor Force Growth Forecast – Ages 20-64 5-year changes beginning 1960; ending 2040 - 2 4 6 8 10 12 Million People 2000-15 ∆ = 25; +15% vs. 2000 2015-30 ∆ = 4; +2% vs. 2015 Next 15 Years Previous 15 Years USA (6) (4) (2) - 2 4 6 8 Million People 2000-15 ∆ = (7); -9% vs. 2000 2015-30 ∆ = (7); -10% vs. 2015 Previous 15 Years Next 15 Years Previous 15 Years Japan Source: UN, EVRISI Calculations (60) (40) (20) - 20 40 60 80 100 Million People 2000-15 ∆ = 163; +21% vs. 2000 2015-30 ∆ = (49); -5% vs. 2015 Previous 15 Years Next 15 Years China (6) (4) (2) - 2 4 6 8 Million People 2000-15 ∆ = 1; +1% vs. 2000 2015-30 ∆ = (7); -6% vs. 2015 Previous 15 Years Next 15 Years Western Europe
  16. 16. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 16 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 US Productivity Growth Has Been Limited -- A Challenge to Economic Growth 3-year average of year-over-year seasonally adjusted percent change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Pioneer Investments. Last data point available 9/30/16. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 US Productivity – Nonfarm Business Sector
  17. 17. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 17 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 The ISM Indexes are Still Signaling Growth Strength in services combined with an upturn in manufacturing •Source: Bloomberg as of December 31, 2016. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index - Monitors employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. The index based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - An index based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing firms' purchasing and supply executives, within 60 sectors across the nation, by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index - An index based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing firms' purchasing and supply executives that tracks new orders, seasonally adjusted. Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction 30 40 50 60 70 30 40 50 60 70 IndexLevel Manufacturing / Non-Manufacturing ISM Non-Manufacturing Index ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 20 30 40 50 60 70 20 30 40 50 60 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IndexLevel New Orders ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index
  18. 18. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 18 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Federal Funds Forecast: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “Dot Plot” Divergence between the FOMC and the Federal Funds Futures Market Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections Report; Latest projections as of December 31, 2016. 0.63% 1.38% 2.13% 2.88% 3.00% 1.19% 1.68% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% 3.40% 3.60% 3.80% 4.00% 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer Term FOMC Dec-16 Meeting Median FOMC Dec-15 Meeting Median Fed Funds Futures as of 12/31/16 Fed estimates for rates shifted significantly downward from December 2015 Fed Fund Futures — bets by the market on policy rates — were consistently below the Fed's estimates until recently The Fed "Dot Plot" Shows How Members of the FOMC Voted at the Last Policy Meeting
  19. 19. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 19 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. US Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix Stock markets and investments in individual stocks involve certain risks, including issuer, market, economic, industry, political, regulatory, geopolitical, and other risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested.
  20. 20. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 20 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Earnings Growth Should Resume Source: Bloomberg and Pioneer Investments. Last data point December 31, 2016. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing. The Trade- weighted US dollar index, also known as the broad index, is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to other world currencies. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 Price EarningsPerShare S&P 500 Earnings Per Share S&P 500 Price Earnings Drive Stocks, and Earnings are Growing Again . . . $60 $65 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 $100$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USTradeWeightedDollar WTICrude WTI Crude US Trade-Weighted Dollar (inverted for comparison) . . . as Oil Prices Recover (though the dollar may still be a headwind)
  21. 21. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 21 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 A Secular Bull Market for Equities? Source: Bloomberg and Pioneer Investments as of December 31, 2016. A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. 1 10 100 1000 10000 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Bull Markets S&P 500 Secular Momentum is a Key Difference Today In a secular bull market, upside swings have generally been stronger and downside swings have been relatively muted.
  22. 22. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 22 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Equities Attractive vs. Fixed Income . . . modestly expensive vs. historic averages Source: Bloomberg (P/E Ratio). Data as of December 31, 2016. Investment grade bonds represented by BofA ML Corporate Bond Master Index. Equities are represented by S&P 500 Index. See page 52-56 for more information about the indices. YTW (Yield to Worst) is the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting. Trailing P/E (price/earnings) is the sum of a company's price-to-earnings, calculated by taking the current stock price and dividing it by the trailing earnings per share for the past 12 months. -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Percent Investment Grade Corporate Yield (YTW) vs. S&P 500 Mean +1 +2 -1 SD -2 SD Investment Grade Bond Yld > S&P 500 Trailing Earnings Yield Investment Grade Bond Yld < S&P 500 Trailing Earnings Yield 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Ratio Trailing P/E Average S&P 500 Trailing P/E Current P/E 21 Average P/E 16.6
  23. 23. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 23 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 The Second Longest Bull Market on Record Overdue for a correction? S&P 500 Bull Market Cycles Since 1928 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pioneer Investments. Last data point December 31, 2016. Trough-to-Peak Duration - The stage of the market cycle from its ultimate cyclical bottom (trough) to a period of growth (peak). 1932 1942 1949 1957 19621966 1970 1974 1982 1987 1990 2002 2009 - Present 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% - 20 40 60 80 100 120 PercentCumulativeReturn Trough to Peak Duration – Months
  24. 24. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 24 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Fed Balance Sheet Size vs. S&P 500 Correlation 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 PercentChange(Rebasedto100) Fed Balance Sheet S&P 500 NASDAQ .96 R2 .17 R2 .32 R2 Source: Bloomberg and Pioneer Investments as of December 31, 2016. See page 52 for more information about S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ. R2 - Represents the percentage of the portfolio's movements that can be explained by the general movements of the market. Index portfolios will tend to have R2 values very close to 100.
  25. 25. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 25 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Investment Style Valuations: December 31, 2016 Source: Russell Investment Group, IBES, FactSet, Pioneer Investments. Data as of December 31, 2016. Price-Earnings Ratio is a valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings. Past performance does not guarantee and is not indicative of future results. Value Blend Growth LargeMidSmall Current P/E vs. 15-Year Average P/E 16.9 15.3 16.2 13.8 18.1 17.6 18.1 16.4 17.0 14.7 19.5 19.1 23.5 19.8 19.6 14.3 30.3 23.8 Value Blend Growth 117% 110% 103% 116% 110% 102% 137% 119% 127% LargeMidSmall Current P/E as % of 15-Year Average P/E
  26. 26. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 26 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Growth and Value Relative Performance At Historical Average Source: Ned Davis Research. Last data point as of December 31, 2016. The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of large cap US growth stocks. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of large cap US value stocks. See pages 52-56 for more information about indices. 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Price Russell 1000 Growth vs. Russell 1000 Value Growth Outperforms Value Outperforms Growth Completes a 15-year base vs. Value
  27. 27. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 27 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Growth vs. Value Sector Exposures Source: Pioneer Investments and Bloomberg. As of December 31, 2016. Russell 1000 Growth Index - Measures the performance of large cap US growth stocks. Russell 1000 Value Index - Measures the performance of large cap US value stocks. See pages 52-56 for more information about indices. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Sector Weights Russell 1000 Growth vs. Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 1000 Value Growth provides greater exposure to Consumer Discretionary, Health Care & Technology, while Value has greater exposure to Energy, Financials, and Utilities.
  28. 28. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 28 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Dividend Growers and Initiators Outperformed Over Time Source: Ned Davis Research. Last data point December 31, 2016. Returns based on monthly equal–weighted geometric average of total returns of S&P 500 component stocks. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 IndexLevel(Rebasedto100) S&P 500 Segmented by Dividend Policy Growers & Initiators All Dividend-Paying Stocks S&P 500 Payers w/No Change in Dividends Non Dividend-Paying Stocks Average Annual Total Return 9.9% 9.1% 7.5% 7.4% 2.4% On average, 262 stocks in this category since 1972
  29. 29. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 29 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 High Quality Stocks Have Historically Outperformed Source: Ned Davis Research as of December 31, 2016. Based on S&P common stock rankings and calculated by Ned Davis Research. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 IndexLevel(rebasedto100) S&P 500 Stock Index (cap weighted) Total Return High Quality Stocks (equal-dollar-weighted) Total Return Low Quality Stocks (equal-dollar-weighted) Total Return 11.47% 11.15% 10.86% S&P 500 Segmented by Quality Average Annual Total Return
  30. 30. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 30 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Equity Market Volatility Likely to Increase Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2016. VIX Index – A trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Implied volatility (VIX Index) reflects what investors expect the S&P 500’s value to be in the next 30 days. Realized volatility reflects actual returns. Monday after Brexit Announcement 6/27/16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 IndexLevel Equity Market Volatility (S&P 500) Aug Implied Volatility (VIX) Realized Volatility Multi-year Lows Election
  31. 31. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 31 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. US Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix Fixed income investments are subject to certain risks, including interest rate changes and possible loss due to financial failure of issuers; investments in high yield or lower rated securities are subject to greater volatility, illiquidity and possibility of default.
  32. 32. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 32 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Inflation CPI Core Inflation and CPI Services are trending higher. Commodities remain a drag. Year-over-year monthly percent change. Source: Bloomberg. Last data point November 30, 2016. Consumer Price Index (CPI) - A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CPI Core Inflation (Ex-food and energy) CPI Services (Ex-energy) CPI Medical Services CPI Commodities Evidence of Inflation
  33. 33. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 33 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Previous Fed Tightening Cycles: Treasury Curve Flattening We expect the yield curve to flatten with an increase in monetary policy 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3m 6m 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Yield% Cycle 1 Begins Cycle 1 Ends U.S. Treasury Curve 3/25/88 - 2/24/89 0 2 4 6 8 10 3m 6m 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Yield% Cycle 2 Begins Cycle 2 Ends U.S. Treasury Curve 1/28/94 - 2/3/95 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3m 6m 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Yield% Cycle 3 Begins Cycle 3 Ends U.S. Treasury Curve 6/25/99 - 5/19/00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3m 6m 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Yield% Cycle 4 Begins Cycle 4 Ends U.S. Treasury Curve 6/25/04 - 06/30/06 Source: Bloomberg. Dates as shown. A flattening yield curve may be a result from long-term interest rates falling more than short-term interest rates or short-term rates increasing more than long-term rates.
  34. 34. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 34 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Previous Fed Tightening Cycles Credit sectors have tended to outperform Rate Rise Period 2/4/94 – 2/1/95 Rate Rise Period 6/30/99 – 5/16/00 Rate Rise Period 6/25/04 – 6/29/06 -7.64% -2.04% -3.38% -1.71% -3.56% 1.13% -0.49% 1.75% #N/A #N/A -8.26%-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 10-Year Treasury BBGBarc Agg IG Corporates U.S. High Yield Munis BBGBarc Global Agg MBS ABS HY Muni Bank Loans Global HY 0.79% 2.02% 0.10% -1.84% -0.16% -2.53% 2.27% 4.44% -2.39% 2.76% 4.99% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 1.92% 3.15% 3.04% 7.66% 4.65% 4.00% 3.49% 3.63% 10.97% 5.25% 10.11% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Source: Bloomberg. Dates as shown. Asset classes represented by the following indices: 10-Year Treasury – BBGBarc 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwether Index. US Bonds – BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index. Investment Grade Corporates - BBGBarc US Corporate Investment Grade Index. US High Yield - BofA ML US High Yield Bond Index. Global Investment Grade Bonds - BBGBarc Global Aggregate Bond Index. Municipals - BBGBarc Municipal Index, High Yield Municipal Bonds - BBGBarc US High Yield Municipal Bond Index, Bank Loans – S&P LSTA Bank Loan Index, Mortgage- Backed Securities (MBS) - BBGBarc US Agency MBS Index, Asset-backed Securities (ABS) - BofA ML US Fixed & Floating Rate Asset-Backed Securities Index. Global High Yield – BBGBarc Global High Yield Index. See pages 52-56 for more information about indices.
  35. 35. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 35 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 The Impact of Rising Rates on Bond Portfolios BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index Historically vs. Today Data represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Sources: Bloomberg BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index, left chart. BofA ML 10-Year Treasury Index as of 12/31/16, right chart. Graph represent the effect of duration and a rise in interest rates. This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent any particular Pioneer product or strategy. This effect only applies if the bonds are sold prior to maturity. Changes in interest rates may have a different effect on other types of fixed income investments based on various factors including duration and credit rating.
  36. 36. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 36 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 US High Yield Spreads and Defaults Source: BofA ML and Moody’s as of December 31, 2016. Default Rate - Calculated as the amount defaulted over the last twelve months divided by the amount outstanding at the beginning of the twelve-month period. Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) - The measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Basis Point (bp) - A unit of measure used to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent) or 0.0001 in decimal form. In most cases, it refers to changes in interest rates and bond yields. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Defaults OAS Current OAS = 422 bp Current Default Rate = 5.8% Averages: Spread = 562 basis points Default = 4.58%
  37. 37. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 37 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 US Bank Loan Spreads Over LIBOR and Defaults Source: S&P LSTA Leveraged Loan Index through December 31, 2016; Pioneer Investments. Spread to Maturity - The difference in return on bonds that have different maturity dates; typically bonds with a longer maturity have a higher return. London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) - The interest rate participating banks offer to other banks for loans on the London market; the most widely used benchmark for short-term interest rates in the world, mainly because most of the world’s largest borrowers borrow money on the London market. Bank Loan Risk: Floating rate loans may not be fully collateralized and therefore may decline significantly in value. Floating rate loans may reduce, but not eliminate, interest rate risk.
  38. 38. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 38 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 LIBOR has Risen in Reaction to Pending New Regulations for Money Markets . . . potentially “breaking the floor” and raising floating rate coupons in 2017 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2016. Global Financial Crisis 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% LIBOR Fed Funds Target Rate 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% SEC Issues New Rules to regulate money markets July 2014 New Rules applied October 2016
  39. 39. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 39 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Municipal Yields and Tax Equivalent Returns BBGBarc Municipal Bond Index Yield to Taxable Taxable Worst Equivalent at 43.4% Equivalent at 28% 2.65% 4.68% 3.68% • An investor in the 43.4% tax bracket earning 2.65% on a tax-free investment would need to earn 4.68% on a taxable investment of comparable safety and maturity. • An investor in the 28% tax bracket, earning 2.65% on a tax-tree investment would need to earn 3.68% on a taxable investment of comparable safety and maturity. Tax Equivalent Yields for Investment Grade Municipal Bonds The value of municipal securities can be adversely affected by changes in financial conditions of municipal issuers, lower revenues, and regulatory and political developments. A portion of income may be subject to local, state, federal and/or alternative minimum tax. Capital gains, if any, are subject to capital gains tax. Chart 1 Source: Municipal Market Advisors, Inc. (MMA). As of December 31, 2016. General Obligation Bonds (GOs) - Bonds backed by the “full faith and credit” of the issuer, with no specific project identified as the source of funds. Chart 2 Source: BBGBarc as of December 31, 2016. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not intended to predict or project investment performance of any Pioneer fund. Yield to Worst - Calculated by making worst-case scenario assumptions on the issue by calculating the returns that would be received if provisions, including prepayment, call or sinking fund, are used by the issuer. Tax Equivalent Yield - Measures what an investor would have to earn on a taxable investment in order to match the yield provided by a tax-exempt municipal bond. BBGBarc Municipal Bond Index - A broad measure of the municipal bond market. See pages 52-56 for more information about indices. 1.2% 1.8% 2.4% 3.2% 1.6% 2.5% 3.3% 4.4% 2.1% 3.1% 4.2% 5.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2 yr 5 Yr 10yr 30 Yr Yield MMA 5% AAA General Obligation Yield Tax-Equivalent (28% Tax Rate) Tax-Equivalent (43.4% Tax Rate) MMA AAA GO (General Obligation)
  40. 40. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 40 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Municipal Tax-Equivalent Attractive vs. Other Major Asset Classes Source: Municipal Market Advisors, Inc. As of 12/31/16. Standard Deviation - A statistical measure of the historic volatility of a portfolio; a lower standard deviation indicates historically less volatility. Asset classes represented by the following indices: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) - BBGBarc US Agency Fixed Rate MBS Index, Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) - BofA ML ABS Master Floating Rate Index, US High Yield - BofA ML U.S. High Yield Bond Index, Treasury - BBGBarc US Treasury Index. Agency - BBGBarc US Agency Index, Municipals (Muni) - BBGBarc Municipal Index, Aggregate - BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index, High Yield Municipals (Muni HY) - BBGBarc US High Yield Municipal Index, US Stocks - S&P 500 Index. Small Cap Stocks - Russell 2000 Index. Global Treasury - BBGBarc Global Treasury Index. US Credit - BBGBarc US Credit Index. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices. MBS ABS US High Yield TreasuryAgency Muni Aggregate Muni HY S&P 500 Russell 2000 Global Treasury US Credit Tax-adjusted Muni Tax-adjusted Muni HY -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% AnnualizedReturn Annualized Standard Deviation 10-Year Risk / Return Profile
  41. 41. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 41 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Individuals Still Own the Bulk of Municipal Bonds, But Call Risk has Increased Left Chart - Source BBGBarc as of December 31, 2016. Right Chart – Source: JPMorgan as of June 30, 2016 (most recent data available). Refunding – The process of retiring or redeeming an outstanding bond issue at maturity by using the proceeds from a new debt issue. The new issue is almost always issued at a lower rate of interest than the refunded issue, ensuring significant reduction in interest expense for the issuer. $1,500 $1,550 $1,600 $1,650 $1,700 $1,750 $1,800 $1,850 $1,900 $1,950 $2,000 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 '09Q3 '10Q3 '11Q3 '12Q3 '13Q3 '14Q3 '15Q3 '16Q2 $billions Mutual Funds (left) Households (right) Market Flow Trend 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New Capital vs. Refunding as % of Supply New Capital Refunding
  42. 42. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 42 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Getting Paid to be in Munis Source: Bloomberg as of December 31, 2016. BVAL AAA Municipal Yield % of Treasury Indexes for 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities represents AAA municipal yield (BVAL) as a percentage of equivalent Treasury yield. 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MunicipalYield/TreasuryRatio 5-year Muni/Treasury 10-Year Muni/Treasury 30-year Muni/Treasury Investment Grade Municipal/Treasury Historical Valuations 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
  43. 43. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 43 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. US Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix Alternative investments products involve a high degree of risk, often engaging in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. Alternative investments can be highly illiquid, are not always transparent, and can increase the risk of loss. Alternative investments can be volatile, and subject the investor to loss of all or a substantial amount of the investment.
  44. 44. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 44 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Insurance-linked Investments Can Offer Attractive Diversification Catastrophe (“Cat”) Bonds -- Low Correlation to Financial Markets Left Chart - Source: Artemis and Aon Benfield as of 12/31/16. Right chart – Source: Morningstar as of 12/31/16; correlation of 1.0 is highest. Catastrophe (Cat) Bonds – A high yield debt instrument that is usually insurance linked and meant to raise money in case of a catastrophe such as a hurricane or earthquake. Asset classes are represented by the following indices. Cat Bonds – Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index. US High Yield Bonds - BBGBarc US High Yield Index. US Credit – BBGBarc US Credit Index. Non-US Developed Stocks – MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Markets Bonds – JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bonds Plus Index. Emerging Markets Stocks - MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index. US Large Growth -- Russell 1000 Growth Index. Municipals – BBGBarc Municipal Bond Index. US Large Caps Stocks– S&P 500 Index. US Large Value -- Russell 1000 Value Index. Global Bonds Unhedged – BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index Unhedged. US Small Caps Stocks -- Russell 2000 Index. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices. YTD 2016 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Market Size Issued Cat Bond Market Growth (Assets $billions) 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 US Small Caps Global Bonds Unhedged US Large Value US Large Caps Emerging Markets Munis US Large Growth Emerging Markets Non-US Developed US Credit US High Yield Bonds Cat Bonds Have Low Correlation to Traditional Stock and Bond Indices 10-Year Correlation to Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Equity Fixed Income
  45. 45. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 45 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Cat Bonds Have Remained Attractive Compared to Corporate Bonds Data represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Please note that insurance-linked securities (ILS) are subject to additional risk. Data is not meant to represent the performance of any Pioneer product. Sources: Swiss Re Capital Markets and BBGBarc as of June 30, 2016, which is produced bi-annually. ILS data is published twice yearly and is most recent available. ILS represented by Swiss Re Capital Markets pricing indications only; weighted average seasonally adjusted spread of all ILS cat bonds with a US wind component currently outstanding. BBGBarc US High Yield Index - Measures the performance of the US noninvestment-grade bond market. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices. 470 575 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YieldSpread(basispoints) Cat Bond B Corporate B Cat Bonds vs. Corporate Bonds (B-Rated) 394 370 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YieldSpread(basispoints) Cat Bond BB Corporate BB Cat Bonds vs. Corporate Bonds (BB-Rated)
  46. 46. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 46 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Topics of Discussion 1. Overview and Global Context 2. U.S. Economic Outlook 3. Equity Markets 4. Fixed Income Markets 5. Alternatives 6. Appendix
  47. 47. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 47 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Source: Pioneer Investments, Bloomberg and Federal Reserve. Dates as shown before and after second rate hike in 2016. Equity Sector Returns Before and after Fed target rate increases
  48. 48. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 48 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Alpha from Currencies Can Be Possible in US Dollar Bull OR Bear Markets* Managing for currency will be critical going forward. Macro, geopolitical, and monetary policy factors will affect risk Source: Pioneer Investments, BBGBarc. Dates as shown. Periods above represent the greatest bull and bear market periods for the US dollar in the past 20 years. *A bear market for the US dollar is when it depreciates, and a bull market is when it appreciates. Alpha - Measures risk-adjusted performance, representing excess return relative to the return of the benchmark. A positive alpha suggests risk-adjusted value added by the manager versus the index. BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index Hedged - Provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets hedged in USD. BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index Unhedged - Provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets denominated in local currency.. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices.
  49. 49. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 49 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Brazil 79.68% South Africa -15.77% Brazil 128.62% South Africa 20.76% South Africa 4.52% India 29.60% Japan 49.66% India 26.41% Japan 10.91% Brazil 66.74% China 66.63% UK -31.55% Russia 103.24% Russia 19.48% US 2.11% Germany 26.34% US 32.37% South Africa 16.81% Germany 10.45% Russia 55.94% India 52.46% Australia -35.96% India 93.70% India 16.23% UK -5.42% South Africa 23.15% Germany 24.11% US 13.68% Russia 4.99% UK 14.25% Russia 24.57% US -37.00% China 62.70% Germany 15.21% Australia -9.42% China 22.86% Australia 23.02% Japan 10.90% Australia 3.22% Australia 13.90% Germany 21.38% Germany -41.82% Australia 39.19% US 15.06% Germany -15.74% Australia 21.53% South Africa 16.30% China 8.28% US 1.37% US 11.95% Australia 17.80% Japan -42.48% US 26.45% UK 8.47% China -18.32% Japan 19.41% UK 14.06% Australia 7.46% South Africa 0.31% Germany 11.12% South Africa 14.12% China -51.12% South Africa 25.72% Brazil 7.10% Japan -18.60% Russia 14.30% India 8.58% Germany 4.31% India -1.61% South Africa 4.63% US 5.68% Brazil -56.03% UK 22.28% China 5.10% Russia -19.38% US 14.22% China 3.99% UK -3.06% UK -5.88% Japan 2.08% UK 2.96% India -56.28% Germany 18.57% Australia 2.10% Brazil -21.58% UK 5.93% Russia 1.33% Brazil -13.82% China -7.69% China 1.15% Japan -10.12% Russia -73.77% Japan 9.28% Japan 0.69% India -25.38% Brazil -0.74% Brazil -15.79% Russia -45.96% Brazil -41.19% India 1.12% 10 Years of Country Returns (Equity) No one country has outperformed every year Source: Bloomberg. Data of December 31, 2016. Chart updated annually at year-end. Countries represented by the following indices: US - S&P 500 Index. All other countries - Country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices. See page 52 for more information on country indices.
  50. 50. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 50 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Diverse Asset Classes Can Offer the Advantage of Lower Correlated Returns Correlation among fixed income asset classes: 10 years as of 12/31/16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 U.S. Treasuries 1.00 2 Agencies 0.93 1.00 3 Agency MBS 0.81 0.87 1.00 4 CMBS -0.02 0.14 0.01 1.00 5 Investment Grade Corporates 0.42 0.57 0.53 0.48 1.00 6 TIPS 0.57 0.63 0.63 0.41 0.67 1.00 7 Municipals 0.32 0.38 0.41 0.31 0.56 0.44 1.00 8 Non Agency ABS -0.43 -0.41 -0.31 0.38 0.15 0.07 0.14 1.00 9 High Yield -0.25 -0.04 0.02 0.72 0.64 0.43 0.33 0.49 1.00 10 Leveraged Bank Loans -0.46 -0.33 -0.17 0.53 0.39 0.23 0.25 0.67 0.85 1.00 11 Convertibles -0.31 -0.12 -0.07 0.56 0.53 0.30 0.22 0.43 0.87 0.75 1.00 12 Preferred Stock 0.00 0.08 -0.02 0.51 0.51 0.25 0.29 0.17 0.51 0.29 0.54 1.00 13 International Bonds 0.52 0.61 0.52 0.31 0.53 0.58 0.29 -0.18 0.26 -0.04 0.20 0.30 1.00 14 Emerging Market Bonds 0.23 0.42 0.44 0.53 0.77 0.65 0.50 0.17 0.74 0.48 0.64 0.41 0.56 1.00 15 Event-Linked Bonds 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.20 0.26 0.18 0.19 0.27 0.28 0.34 0.28 0.10 0.11 0.23 1.00 Traditional Fixed Income Sectors Non-Traditional Fixed Income Sectors Low Medium High Source: BBGBarc, BofA ML, JP Morgan, Morningstar. As of December 31, 2016. Asset classes represented by the following indices: US Treasuries – BBGBarc US Treasury Index. Agencies - BBGBarc US Agency Index. Agency MBS - BBGBarc US Agency Fixed Rate MBS Index. CMBS - BBGBarc CMBS Investment Grade Index. Investment Grade Corporates - BBGBarc US Corporate Investment Grade Index. TIPS - BBGBarc US Treasury TIPS Index. Municipals - BBGBarc Municipal Index. Non Agency ABS - BofA ML ABS Master Floating Rate Index. High Yield - BofA ML US High Yield Bond Index. Leveraged Bank Loans - Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index. Convertibles – BofA ML All Convertible Index. Preferred Stock - BofA ML Preferred Stock Index. International Bonds – Citi WGBI non USD Index. Emerging Market Bonds – JPMorgan EMBI Plus Index. Event-linked Bonds – SwissRe Cat Bond Index. See pages 52-56 for more information on indices.
  51. 51. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 51 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Disclosures and Definitions This presentation provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to specific Pioneer products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the capital markets update explores the potential implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. IMPORTANT DEFINITIONS •Alpha – measures risk-adjusted performance, representing excess return relative to the return of the benchmark. A positive alpha suggests risk-adjusted value added by the manager versus the index. •Basis Point - A unit of measure used to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01% (1/100th of a percent) or 0.0001 in decimal form. In most cases, it refers to changes in interest rates and bond yields •Correlation – The degree to which assets or asset class prices have moved in relation to one another. Correlation ranges from -1 (always moving in opposite directions) through 0 (absolutely independent) to 1 (always move together). •Curve Bear Flattener - A yield-rate environment in which short-term rates are increasing at a rate faster than long-term rates, which causes the yield curve to flatten as the short-term and long-term rates start to converge. •Diversification – Does not protect against profit or loss. •Duration – A measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates, expressed as a number of years. •Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio - The price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. •R2 - Represents the percentage of the portfolio's movements that can be explained by the general movements of the market. Index portfolios will tend to have R2 values very close to 100. •Spread - The difference between two prices or interest rates. •Standard Deviation - A statistical measure of the historic volatility of a portfolio; a lower standard deviation indicates historically less volatility. •Trailing P/E (price/earnings) - The sum of a company's price-to-earnings, calculated by taking the current stock price and dividing it by the trailing earnings per share for the past 12 months. •Trough to Peak - The change in a data measure - from its highest point to its lowest point, often used to refer to declines during a cyclical downturn. •Yield to Maturity - The total return anticipated on a bond if the bond is held until the end of its lifetime. •Yield to Worst (YTW) - The lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting.
  52. 52. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 52 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Index Definitions – General The historical index performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index - Tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies versus the US Dollar. Bloomberg West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Index – A single commodity sub-index of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (CI) composed of futures contracts on crude oil. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD •Cambridge Associates LLC U.S. Private Equity Index®: An end-to-end calculation based on data compiled from 1,199 U.S. private equity funds (buyout, growth equity, private equity energy and mezzanine funds), including fully liquidated partnerships, formed between 1986 and 2014. •Citigroup World Government Bond (Citi WGBI) Index - Measures the government bond markets around the world. •JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Plus (the EMBI Plus) Index - Is comprised of external-currency-denominated debt instruments issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi- sovereign entities. Issues include: Brady bonds (restructured bank loans) Eurobonds and other U.S. dollar-denominated bonds •JP Morgan Emerging Markets (EM) Bond Index - Measures the total return performance of international government bonds issued by emerging market countries that are considered sovereign (issued in something other than local currency •Morningstar MSCI Long-Short Credit Index - Tracks the performance of strategies that seek to take exposure to credit-sensitive securities, long and/or short, based upon credit analysis of issuers and securities, and credit market views. •Morningstar MSCI Relative Value Index - Tracks the performance of strategies that focus on spread relationships between pricing components of financial assets or commodities. •Nasdaq Composite Index - Market-capitalization weighted index of the more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. • NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) Property Index - A quarterly time series composite total rate of return measure of investment performance of a very large pool of individual commercial real estate properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only. •Russell 1000 Growth Index – Measures the performance of large cap US growth stocks. Russell 1000 Value Index – Measures the performance of large cap US value stocks. •Russell 2000 Index - Measures the performance of US small cap stocks. Russell 2500 Index - A broad index featuring 2,500 stocks that cover the small and mid cap market capitalizations. •Russell Mid Cap Index - Measures the performance of US mid cap stocks. •S&P 500 Index – A commonly used measure of the broad US stock market. •S&P GSCI Index - Recognized as a leading measure of general price movements and inflation in the world economy and includes the most liquid commodity futures •S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index - A capitalization-weighted syndicated loan index based upon market weightings, spreads and interest payments for the US market. •S&P/LSTA European Leveraged Loan Index - A capitalization-weighted syndicated loan index based upon market weightings, spreads and interest payments for the European market. •Swiss Re Cat Bond Index - Constructed to track the price return and the total rate of return for US dollar-denominated catastrophe bonds. •Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index – Tracks the aggregate performance of all USD, Europe and Japan-denominated cat bonds. •VIX Index – A trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options.
  53. 53. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 53 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Index Definitions - BBGBarc The historical index performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. •BBGBarc 10-Year US Treasury Bellwethers Index - A universe of Treasury bonds, and used as a benchmark against the market for long-term maturity fixed-income securities. •BBGBarc Investment Grade Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Index – Measures performance of the mortgage-backed securities market. •BBGBarc Emerging Markets Debt (EMD) USD Aggregate Index - A flagship hard currency emerging markets debt benchmark that includes USD-denominated debt from sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and corporate emerging markets issuers. •BBGBarc Eurodollar Index - Contains US dollar-denominated securities that are registered outside the US (except for global issues that can be SEC-registered). •BBGBarc Global Aggregate Bond Index – Provides a broad-based measure of the global investment grade fixed income market. • BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index Hedged - Provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets hedged in USD. • BBGBarc Global Aggregate Index Unhedged - Provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets denominated in local currency. •BBGBarc Global High-Yield Index – A broad-based measure of the global high-yield fixed income markets. •BBGBarc Global Treasury Index - Tracks fixed-rate, local currency government debt of investment grade countries, both developed and emerging markets. BBGBarc Long Government/Credit Index - •BBGBarc Municipal Bond Index – A broad-based measure of the municipal bond market. •BBGBarc US Treasury Index - Measures US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury, excluding Treasury bills. •BBGBarc US Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) Index – Includes all publicly issued, US TIPS with one year remaining to maturity, are rated investment grade. •BBGBarc US Agency MBS Index - Tracks agency mortgage backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). •BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index – A measure of the US bond market. •BBGBarc US Corporate Investment Grade Index - An unmanaged index considered representative of the US investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market. •BBGBarc US Credit Index - A broad measure of the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate and government related bond markets •BBGBarc US High Yield Index - A measure of the broad non-investment grade bond market. •BBGBarc US High Yield Municipal Index - Measures the non-investment grade and non-rated US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, tax-exempt bond market. •BBGBarc US Securitized Index - A subset of the BBGBarc US Aggregate Bond Index that includes the mortgage-backed securities (MBS), asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) sectors.
  54. 54. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 54 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Index Definitions – Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA ML) The historical index performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. •BofA ML All US Convertibles Index - Consists of convertible bonds traded in the US dollar-denominated investment grade and non-investment grade convertible securities sold into the US market and publicly traded in the US. •BofA ML Preferred Stock Fixed Rate Index - Consists of fixed rate US dollar denominated preferred securities and fixed-to-floating rate securities. •BofA ML US High Yield Master II Index - A commonly accepted measure of the performance of high yield securities. •BofA ML US Corporate Master Index – Includes publicly-issued, fixed-rate, nonconvertible investment grade dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate debt having at least one year to maturity and an outstanding par value of at least $250 million. •BofA ML US Mortgage Backed Securities Index - Tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated fixed rate and hybrid residential mortgage pass-through securities publicly issued by US agencies in the US domestic market. •BofA ML US Asset Backed Securities (ABS) Floating Rate Index - Tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated investment grade floating rate asset backed securities publicly issued in the US domestic market. •BofA ML US Asset Backed Securities (ABS) Fixed Rate Home Equity Loan Index - A subset of the BofA ML US Fixed Rate Asset Backed Securities Index including all asset backed securities collateralized by home equity loans. •BofA ML US Treasury Bill Index - Tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated US Treasury Bills publicly issued in the US domestic market. •BofA ML US Treasury Current 10-year Index – Measures the total return performance of US Treasury bonds with an outstanding par greater than or equal to $25 million. The maturity range of these securities is greater than ten years. •BofA ML US Treasury Master Index – Tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the US government in its domestic market. •BofA ML Euro Large Cap Corporate Index - Tracks the performance of large capitalization euro-denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the eurobond or Euro member domestic markets. •BofA ML Pan-Europe Government Bond Index – A subset of the BofA ML Global Government Index including all securities issued by countries associated with the geographical region of Europe. •BofA ML Euro High Yield Index - Tracks the performance of euro-denominated below-investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets.
  55. 55. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 55 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Index Definitions – Credit Suisse The historical index performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. •Credit Suisse Dedicated Short Bias Index - Measures the aggregate performance of dedicated short bias strategies. •Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index - Measures the aggregate performance of fixed income arbitrage strategies. •Credit Suisse Global Macro Index - Measures the aggregate performance of global macro strategies. •Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index - Tracks the investable market of the U.S. dollar denominated leveraged loan market. •Credit Suisse Liquid Alternative Index - Reflects the returns of a dynamic basket of liquid, investable market factors selected and weighted in accordance with an algorithm that aims to approximate the aggregate returns of the universe of hedge fund managers, as represented by the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index. •Credit Suisse Long/Short Equity Index - Measures the aggregate performance of long/short equity strategies. •Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index - Measures the aggregate performance of managed futures strategies. •Credit Suisse Multi-Strategy Index - Measures the aggregate performance of multi-strategy strategies.
  56. 56. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 56 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Index Definitions - Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) The historical index performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. •MSCI ACWI - Captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. •MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) Growth Index - A commonly used measure of international growth stocks. •MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Free Index - A free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. •MSCI Country Indices measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the specific country’s market, including Russia, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, China, India, Australia, South Africa and Brazil. •MSCI US REIT Index - Defines and measures the investable universe of publicly traded real estate investment trusts domiciled in the U.S. •MSCI World Index - Captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) countries. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com).
  57. 57. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 57 29282-03-0117 I January 2017 Investment Suitability is Important There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of June 30, 2016. Unless otherwise stated, all views expressed are those of Pioneer Investments. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested.. Before investing, consider the product’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your advisor or Pioneer Investments for a prospectus or a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Neither Pioneer, nor its representatives are legal or tax advisors. In addition, Pioneer does not provide advice or recommendations. The investments you choose should correspond to your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance. For assistance in determining your financial situation, please consult an investment professional. Securities offered through Pioneer Funds Distributor, Inc. Underwriter of Pioneer mutual funds, Member SIPC 60 State Street Boston, Massachusetts us.pioneerinvestments.com 2017 Pioneer Investments
  58. 58. There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Page 58 29282-03-0117 I January 2017

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