Prezentace se věnuje především těmto otázkám:
• Přináší nám tvorba odhadů nějakou hodnotu a kolik nás stojí?
• Nevytváří model top-down rozpočtování řadu neefektivit?
• Je možné to dělat jinak?
• Co se skrývá za pojmy Beyond Budgeting a #NoEstimates a jak tyto myšlenky uvést o praxe?
O myšlenky a zkušenosti se s Vámi podělil Zdeněk Macháček, seniorní projektový manager a certifikovaný Scrum Master. Má dlouholeté zkušenosti z řízení IT projektů a bohaté praktické zkušenosti s využitím agilních přístupů. Zdeněk je také product owner řešení vyvíjených v Principal engineering.
5. Comparing
the
Fortune
500
companies
in
1955
and
2011,
there
are
only
67
companies
that
appear
in
both
lists.
In
other
words,
only
13.4%
of
the
Fortune
500
companies
in
1955
were
still
on
the
list
56
years
later
in
2011,
and
almost
87%
of
the
companies
have
either
gone
bankrupt,
merged,
gone
private,
or
still
exist
but
have
fallen
from
the
top
Fortune
500
companies
(ranked
by
gross
revenue).
61 in 2014
6.
7. James
O.
McKinsey,
1922
“Budgetary
control…
is
urgently
needed,
as
a
foundation
of
control
exercised
by
executives,
and
as
a
way
to
coordinate
the
activities
of
functional
departments.”
Dr.
Jan
Wallander,
1997
“Budgetary
management
is
an
unnecessary
evil”
8. „Beyond
budgeting
is
a
positive
idea
that
uses
the
abandonment
of
budgeting
as
a
trigger
for
improving
the
entire
management
model.“
Charles
T.
Horngren,
Littlefield
Professor
of
Accounting,
Emeritus,
Stanford
University
16. Máš
naši
plnou
důvěru,
• Abys
řídil
tento
projekt
za
X
mio
• Vedl
Y
desítek
lidí
• Řídil
jak
se
utratí
Z
desítek
tisíc
md
ale
tohle
si
musíš
nechat
schválit:
• Školení
za
1
000
Kč
• Přidělení
licence
MS
Excel
• Nábor
nového
člověka
…
a
tady
máš
rozpočet
a
cíle
na
příští
rok.
17. TÝM
MY
DOHROMADY
SPOLEČNÝ
CÍL
INDIVIDUÁLNÍ
BONUSY
„TAJNÁ“
KPI
LIMITY
NA
FTE…
18.
19. "A
bad
system
will
defeat
a
good
person
every
time".
W.
Edwards
Deming
"To,
že
někdo
krade,
neznamená,
že
dáme
do
vězení
všechny".
Bjarte
Bogsnes
20. Traditional
model New
model
(centralized
functional
hierarchy) (decentralized
leadership
network)
“Bosses”
rule! “The
market”
rules!
Top-‐down
command
and
control Outside-‐in
sense
and
respond
Top
management
is
always
in
charge Front-‐line
teams
are
always
in
charge
Centralized
leadership Devolved
leadership
Fixed,
annual
processes Dynamic,
continuous
processes
Fixed
targets
and
incentives Relative
targets/compensation
Centralized
and
bureaucratic
control Self-‐control,
transparency
and
peer
pressure
26. „The
only
metrics
that
entrepreneurs
should
invest
energy
in
collecting
are
those
that
help
them
make
decisions.
Unfortunately,
the
majority
of
data
available
in
off-‐the-‐shelf
analytics
packages
are
what
I
call
Vanity
Metrics.
They
might
make
you
feel
good,
but
they
don’t
offer
clear
guidance
for
what
to
do.“
Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
29. "#NoEstimates
is
a
hashtag
for
the
topic
of
exploring
alternatives
to
estimates
for
making
decisions
in
software
development.
That
is,
ways
to
make
decisions
with
'No
Estimates'."
Woody
Zuill
2013
30. „As
companies,
we
are
placing
critical
dollars
on
investments
that
have
a
very
low
probability
of
paying
off…
and
we
are
relying
on
flawed
estimates
to
mitigate
that
risk.“
Mike Cottmeyer 2015
„We
live
in
a
world
where
requirements
are
uncertain,
technology
is
rapidly
evolving,
people
are
unpredictable…
a
world
where
technology
is
poorly
architected,
changes
result
in
unintended
consequences,
and
defects
are
rampant…
AND
we
have
to
be
able
to
make
and
meet
commitments
with
some
level
of
assurance
that
we
can
actually
solve
the
business
problem
within
the
time
and
cost
allocated
to
the
project.“
31. Detailní
analýza
dopředu
Detailní
odhady
Prioritizace
podle
odhadů
Stabilní
(crossfunctional)
týmy
High
level/Relativní
odhady
Omezení
velikostí
investice
Proritizace
podle
hodnoty
(MoSCoW)
Lean
startup
strategie
Impact
mapping
33. Kam dál
Beyond Budgeting Institute http://bbrt.org/
Statoil Book http://www.statoil.com/en/About/
TheStatoilBook/Pages/TheStatoilBook.aspx
http://noestimatesbook.com/5-no-estimates-decision-
making-strategies/
http://neilkillick.com/category/noestimates/