Show me a project that is in delay and I’ll show you a project that is losing money”.  It is a fact of life that most major projects are completed later than originally planned and struggle to make the returns, especially for the contractor, that were envisaged.  The key to completing projects on time is planning, monitoring progress, deterring the project position and forecasting the completion.  This allows informed decision making about what changes need to be made to bring a project back onto schedule.  Various established methods of measuring progress and project position are presented along with a straight-forward way of predicting project completion that allows those unfamiliar with Earned Value techniques to make decisions about the extent of change required to bring a project in on time.

1. Copyright © 2014. All rights reserved. 1
Project Controls Expo – 18 November 2014
Emirates Stadium, London
Progress | Position | Prediction
The key to completing projects on time

2. Copyright © 2014. All rights reserved. 2
About the Speaker
David Bordoli
David has over 30 years in the construction industry
specialising in planning and scheduling, initially with
contractors and latterly as a consultant focusing on forensic
delay analysis. David is academically and professionally
qualified and is the author of numerous high quality papers.
He was awarded an MSc degree with distinction for his
work on ‘The simulation of construction project delays using
network techniques’, the method of analysis now known as
‘Time Impact Analysis’. His book, ‘A Handbook for
Construction Planning and Scheduling’, co-authored with
Andrew Baldwin, was published by Wiley Blackwell in May
2014. Most recently he has been engaged as an expert on
major projects in South Africa and China.

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Cambridge

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Cambridge
Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Leicester City 42 21 13 8 58 38 20 55
2 Sunderland 42 21 12 9 69 42 27 54
3 Birmingham City 42 21 11 10 58 38 20 53
4 Chelsea 42 23 7 12 66 52 14 53
5 Queens Park Rangers 42 18 13 11 75 53 22 49
6 Luton Town 42 16 17 9 66 45 21 49
7 West Ham United 42 20 7 15 54 43 11 47
8 Cambridge United 42 14 16 12 61 53 8 44
9 Newcastle United 42 15 14 13 53 49 4 44
10 Preston North End 42 12 19 11 56 52 4 43
11 Oldham Athletic 42 16 11 15 49 53 −4 43
12 Swansea City 42 17 9 16 48 53 −5 43
13 Shrewsbury Town 42 18 5 19 60 53 7 41
14 Leyton Orient 42 12 17 13 48 54 −6 41
15 Cardiff City 42 16 8 18 41 48 −7 40
16 Wrexham 42 16 6 20 40 49 −9 38
17 Notts County 42 11 15 16 51 52 −1 37
18 Watford 42 12 13 17 39 46 −7 37
19 Bristol Rovers 42 11 13 18 50 64 −14 35
20 Fulham 42 11 7 24 42 74 −32 29
21 Burnley 42 6 15 21 39 73 −34 27
22 Charlton Athletic 42 6 10 26 39 78 −39 22

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Cambridge – First Half
Cambridge United v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 4 April 1981
1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 4-0

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Cambridge – Second Half
Cambridge United v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 4 April 1981
1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 2-3

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1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 2-3
Cambridge – Full Time
Cambridge United v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 4 April 1981

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Change

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Predictability Time - Construction

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Progress | Position | Prediction
Active management of time
comprises three steps
Measure Progress
Determine Position
Completion Prediction
Progress
ImpossiblePrediction
DifficultPosition
Easy
Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it's about the future

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Progress – how much has been done
Progress
Physically complete (%)
Time expended
Time remaining
Time to complete

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Position – what is the current status
Activity Position
time ahead
on schedule
time behind
if S TN F, then if (% < 100, P = S + (D x %) – TN, else P = 0), else
if S TN F, then P = S + (D x %) – TN, else
if S TN, then if (% > 0, P = S + (D x %) – TN, else P = 0)
Where: P is the activity position,
S is the planned start of the activity,
F is the planned finish of the activity,
TN is time now,
D is the planned duration of the activity, and
% is the percentage complete of the activity at time now.
time now
time ahead
time behind
on schedule

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Position – what is the current status
Project Position
Averaging
Critical Path Methods
SET UP
SUBSTRUCTURES
FRAME
ENVELOPE
FIRST FIX
JOINERY
M & E SECOND
FIT-OUT
COMMISSION
END
-2
-1
0
+1

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Position – what is the current status
Project Position
Averaging
Critical Path Methods
Planned Progress Monitoring
Earned Value Analysis
planned
actual
planned
actual
£millionPPMUnits

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Prediction – when will the project end
Predicting is the estimation or forecasting of some future
event or condition of the project as a result of the study and
analysis of available data on the basis of observation, experience
or scientific reason.
Experience
Critical Path Analysis
Extrapolation
Reprogramming
Parkinson’s Law
Student Syndrome
Earned Value Analysis

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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
value(£m)
week number
y = -2E-07x6 + 2E-05x5 - 0.0006x4 + 0.0092x3 - 0.0472x2 + 0.1084x - 0.0257
R² = 0.9994
Forecasting Using Earned Value Analysis
BAC
(planned
completion)
BCWS
(planned)
time now
BCWP
(actual)
EAC
(forecast
completion)

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Forecasting Using Earned Value Analysis
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
value(£m)
week number
BAC
(planned
completion)
BCWS
(planned)
time now
BCWP
(actual)
EAC
(forecast
completion)
Planned completion date (BACt) = 22.0
Time now (BCWSt) = 12.0
Current position (BCWPt) = 10.0
Rate of Progress (SPI) = 10.0 / 12.0 = 0.83
Time not yet completed = 22.0 – 10.00 = 12.0
Forecast time to complete (ETCt) = 12.0 / 0.83= 14.5
Forecast completion date (EACt) = 12.0 + 14.5 = 26.5

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Forecasting Using
Planned Progress Monitoring
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PPMunits
week number
planned
completion
planned
time now
actual
forecast
completion
Original project duration (D)= 22
Project position (P) = 10
Time now (TN) = 12
Completion = D x TN / P
= 22 x 12 / 10 = 26.4

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A Simple Approach to Forecasting
The Planned Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
x = y
planned
completion
planned

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The Actual Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
planned
time now
actual

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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
Simple Linear Regression
The Forecast Model
planned
actual
actual trend
forecast
y = 0.8208x + 0.1522
R² = 0.9994
Regression Equation: y = a + bx
Intercept: a = (ΣY - b(ΣX)) / N
Slope: b = (NΣXY - (ΣX)(ΣY)) / (NΣX2 - (ΣX)2)
Where x and y are the variables.
b = The slope of the regression line
a = The intercept point of the regression line and the y axis.
N = Number of values or elements
X = First Score
Y = Second Score
ΣXY = Sum of the product of first and Second Scores
ΣX = Sum of First Scores
ΣY = Sum of Second Scores
ΣX2 = Sum of square First Scores

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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
Simple Linear Regression
The Forecast Model
planned
forecast
completion
actual
actual trend
forecast
y = 0.8208x + 0.1522
R² = 0.9994
x = 26.6x = y - 0.1522
0.8208
x = 22 - 0.1522
0.8208

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Project Recovery
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
forecast
maintain
accelerate

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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
position
week number
Ahead and On Programme
ahead
on programme

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Conclusion
> Profitability
Simple linear regression
Takes account of all the position data
Presents in simple straight-line graphs
Understood by non-specialists
Trends are easier to understand
Change needed to bring the project back on schedule is straightforward
to see.
Progress trends tend to be influenced by leadership,
management, resources, experience and strategy decisions.
Progress > Position > Prediction

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Questions?

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A Handbook for
Construction Planning and Scheduling
David Bordoli
Andrew Baldwin
John Mullen
Robert Horne
John Mullen
Peter Davison

28. Copyright © 2014. All rights reserved. 28
Project Controls Expo – 18 November 2014
Emirates Stadium, London
Progress | Position | Prediction
The key to completing projects on time