2016 Land Markets Survey

National Association of REALTORS® Research Division
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Danielle Hale, MS, Managing Director, Housing Research
Gay Cororaton, MS, Research Economist
REALTORS® Land Institute
Aubrie Kobernus, MBA, Chief Executive Officer
Jessa Friedrich, MBA, Marketing Manager
Presented By

President’s Message
“As the 2017 National President of the REALTORS® Land
Institute (RLI), “The Voice of Land,” I am proud to release this
one of a kind report to the industry. The pertinent information
included is an aggregation of survey results collected from land
and commercial real estate professionals across the United
States. Every year, in partnership with the National Association
of REALTORS® (NAR) Research Department, RLI conducts
and publishes this survey for the benefit of real estate
professionals across the industry to use as a benchmarking
resource. We want to thank everyone who took the time to
contribute to this survey, as well as, NAR for continuing to
support our efforts to bring vital information to brokers and
agents across the country. For a digital copy of the survey and
more information, please visit rliland.com/land-markets-survey”
-Brandon Rogillio, ALC
2017 RLI National President

About the Survey
Objective
 To gather information about land transactions among land
real estate professionals during the reference period of
October 2015–September 2016 and on their outlook for the
period October 2016–September 2017.
Timeframe
 NAR + RLI conducted the online survey from October 5–
November 22, 2016.
Participants
 614 respondents (614 in the October 2015 survey), 505 of
which closed a land transaction.
Note: The REALTORS® Land Institute sent out the survey to 13,388 members and
prospective members. NAR conducted the online survey from October 5–November 22,
2016. To correct for under- and over-response across regions and countries, NAR
weighted the sample responses by a factor that aligns the regional distribution of
responses to the regional distribution of members and non-members provided by
REALTORS® Land Institute (see Technical Appendix, last page).

Respondent Distribution
93
117
218 212
117
47
73
120
150
183
107
28
56
8
52
97
124
143
90
36
56
4 12
66
115
148
161
63
25 31
0 5
Number of Respondents by Main Business Region
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Comparative Distribution of Respondents by Main
Business Region in the Various Surveys.

Professional Membership
of Respondents
*Multiple responses allowed so percent shares will
not sum up to 100 percent during survey period.
63%
80%
13%
35%
52%
76%
10%
31%
61%
70%
8%
21%
59%
73%
9%
30%
REALTORS® Land
Institute
NAR CCIM Other

Survey Highlights
 Recreational and residential land accounted for
about 50% of U.S. closed land transactions
between October 2015‒September 2016.
 On average, the dollar volume of U.S. land sales
increased by 2% between October
2015‒September 2016 compared to the
previous 12-month period (2% in the October
2015 survey).
◦ Sales increased the most for timber land at
5% and residential land at 4%.
◦ Agricultural irrigated land sales fell by 1%.
◦ Commercial land sales rose at a slower pace
of 1% (compared to 3% in the October 2015
survey).

Survey Highlights Continued…
 On average, U.S. land prices (in dollars per
acre) rose at a slower pace of 1% from
September 2015 to September 2016 versus 2%
in the prior year (in part due to the decline in
agricultural land prices).
◦ Prices of agricultural irrigated land decreased
by 1% and non-irrigated land by 2%, likely
related to the slump in commodity prices.
◦ Land prices increased the most for timber
land at 5% and residential land at 3%.
◦ Commercial land prices rose at a slower pace
of 1%(compared to four percent in the
October 2015 survey).

 On average, respondents expect U.S. land sales
volumes to increase by 2% between October
2016‒September 2017 compared to the October
2015‒September 2016 period.
◦ Timber, residential, and greenfield
development land are expected to post the
strongest growth rates at 3%.
◦ Agricultural non-irrigated land sales are
expected to grow by 1% and sales for
agricultural irrigated land are expected to
remain the same as in 2016.

 On average, respondents expect U.S. land
prices (in dollars per acre) to increase at a
modest pace of 1% from September 2016 to
September 2017.
◦ Timber and residential land prices are
expected to post the highest increases, each
at 3%.
◦ Agricultural land prices are expected to
decline by 2%.
◦ Commercial land prices are expected to
increase by 1%.

 Across the regions, most land transactions were:
◦ Region 1: residential, recreational, non-
irrigated agricultural
◦ Region 2: non-irrigated agricultural,
recreational
◦ Region 3: recreational, timber, and residential
◦ Region 4: recreational, ranch
◦ Region 5: ranch, irrigated agricultural,
recreational
◦ Region 6: residential, ranch, commercial,
irrigated, agricultural
 Individual/family buyers were the major buyers
and sellers of U.S. land, with Region 1
accounting for the largest share of
individual/family buyers (35%)and sellers (26%).

 The acreage of U.S. land sold was typically 75
acres; ranch lands were typically 200 acres,
while residential lands were typically 5 acres.
 U.S. lands for sale were typically sold within 100
days. Land sold more quickly in Regions 2 and 4
and for agricultural non-irrigated, timber, and
recreational lands.
 On average, buyers of U.S. land financed 32%
of the value of the property (or made a 68%
down payment).
 Irrigated lands accounted for 10% of U.S. land
sales. Nearly half of all irrigated land sales were
in Region 5 (43%).
 Mineral rights were conveyed in 68% of U.S.
land sales.

Distribution of Closed Land
Transactions
Percentage Distribution of Closed Land Transactions Among
Members with Primary Business in the United States. 51% of
U.S. Land Sales Were Recreational and Residential Lands.
26% 25%
14%
11%
8% 7% 6%
3%

Average Change in Dollar Volume
Average Percent Change in the Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sold from October
2015‒September 2016 Compared to October 2014‒September 2015. Dollar
Volume Rose by 2%: Strong Timber and Residential Land Sales and Weak
Agricultural Land Sales.
2%
5%
-1%
2%
1% 1%
3%
0% 0%
3%
2%
5%
4%
2% 2%
2%
1% 1%
0%
-1%
1%
2%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey

Average Change in Price of Land Sold
Average Percent Change in the Price of U.S. Land Sold in
Dollars Per Acre from September 2015‒September 2016.
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
4%
0% 0%
3%
2%
5%
3%
2%
1% 1% 1%
1%
-1% -2%
-3%
1%

Commodity Price Indices
Commodity Price Declines in 2015–2016 Likely Affected
Agricultural Land Prices. Source: Standard & Poor's,
downloaded from Haver Analytics.
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
201208
201210
201304
201306
201308
201310
201403
201406
201408
201410
201503
201506
201508
201510
201604
201606
201608
201610
Commodity Price Indices
S&P GSCI Livestock Nearby Index (Jan-2-70=100)
S&P GSCI Grains Index (Jan-5-70=100)

Quarterly New I-Unit Family Housing
*Starts in thousands. More Housing Construction Between
2015‒2016 Likely Boosted Residential Land Sales and Prices.
Source: Census Bureau, downloaded from Haver Analytics.
0
50
100
150
200
250
20121
20122
20123
20124
20131
20132
20133
20134
20141
20142
20143
20144
20151
20152
20153
20154
20161
20162
20163
United States Northeast Midwest South West

Expected Change in Dollar Volume of
U.S. Land Sales
Average Expected Change in the Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sales from October 2016–
September 2017 Compared to October 2015–September 2016. Respondents Expect
Dollar Volume to Increase 2% by September 2017 with Strong Gains in Timber,
Development, and Residential Land.
3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
2%

Expected Change in Price of
U.S. Land Sold
Average Expected Change in the Price of U.S. Land (in
Dollars Per Acre) from September 2016–September 2017
3%
3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
1%
-2% -2%
2%
1%

Distribution of U.S. Land Sales
Region 1 (the Northeast) Accounted for the Highest Share
of U.S. Land Sales.
29%
14%
17% 17%
20%
3%
29%
14%
18% 18% 17%
4%
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6

Types of Buyers of U.S. Land
Based on the type of the most recent buyer. Multiple
responses are allowed, so the distribution will not sum to
100 percent.
45%
12%
8%
15%
1%
64%
14% 12%
20%
6%

Location of U.S. Land Purchased by
Individual/Family Buyers
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents, Region 1
Accounted for the Largest Share of Individual/Family
Buyers.
26%
12%
17%
19%
23%
3%
35%
8%
16% 16%
18%
7%

Type of Sellers of U.S. Land
Based on the type of the most recent seller. Multiple
responses are allowed so the responses will not sum up to
100 percent. Individuals/Family Buyers Accounted for 76
Percent of Respondent U.S. Land Sellers.
55%
9%
3%
9%
0% 3%
76%
10%
2%
11%
0% 2%

Location of U.S. Land Sold by
Individual/Family Sellers
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents, Region 1
Accounted for the Largest Share of Individual/Family
Sellers.
27%
15%
17% 17%
20%
4%
26%
15%
19% 19%
17%
3%

Types of U.S. Land Sold by Region
The estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30
observations.
3% 2% 9% 15%
23%21%
53%
6%
11%
14%
10%
6%
12%
4%
5% 23%
4%
3%
8%3%
2%
3%
22%
32% 23%
28%
23%
28%
35%
15%31%
6%
22%
10% 3%
31%
5% 8%
24%
6% 8%
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6*
Agricultural, irrigated Agricultural, non-irrigated
Commercial Development, brownfield
Development, greenfield Ranch

Types of U.S. Land Sold by Region
 Across the regions, most land transactions were:
◦ Region 1: residential, recreational, non-
◦ Region 2: non-irrigated agricultural,
recreational
◦ Region 3: recreational, timber, and residential
◦ Region 4: recreational, ranch
◦ Region 5: ranch, irrigated agricultural,
recreational
◦ Region 6: residential, ranch, commercial,

Median Acreage of U.S. Land
Sold by Region
44
98
82
104
129
64
81
20
80
103
113
61
20
80
42
80
91
80
39
20
65
57
85
47
93
80
46
75
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6* United
States
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. The
estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30
observations. Lands Sold in Regions 2, 4, and 5 Were
Typically Larger: These Regions Have More Ranch and
Non-Irrigated Agricultural Land Sales.

Median Acreage of U.S. Land
Sold by Type
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. Median
acreage of agricultural irrigated land, development land,
commercial land, and other types of land are not shown
separately due to very small sample size, but the responses
are used in calculating the median acreage of all land sold
in the United States. Acreage of U.S. Land Sold Rose to 75
Acres: Ranch, Agricultural, and Timber Lands Tend to be
Larger Than Other Types of Land.
160
120
141
100
8
65
200
116 110
80
5
75
Ranch Agricultural,
non-irrigated
Timber Recreational Residential United States

Median Days on Market of Land Sold
by Region
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents.
Estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30
observations. U.S. Land Sold Typically Within 100 Days with
Fewer Days on Market for Regions 2 and 4 Which Have
More Non-Irrigated Agricultural and Recreational Land
Sales.
194
60
150
120
200
111 120
135
60
160
120
210 200
120
100
62
120
90
160
78
100
135
45
125
60
120
90 100
States

Median Days on Market of Land Sold
by Type
Based on the most recent sale of the respondent. Data for
agricultural irrigated land, development land, commercial
land, and other types of land are not shown separately due
to very small sample size, but the responses are used in
calculating the median acreage of all land sold in the
United States.
60
126 120
100
180
100
75
150
90
120
85
100
Agricultural,
non-irrigated
Ranch Recreational Residential Timber United States

Average Financing of U.S. Land Sold
Based on the most recent sale of the respondent. Data for
agricultural irrigated land, development land, commercial
land, and other types of land are not shown separately due
to very small sample size, but the responses are used in
calculating the percent financing of all land sold in the
United States. On Average, Buyers Financed 32% of the
Value of the Land Purchased in the United States.
30%
33% 33%
27%
16%
29%
42%
38%
34%
31%
22%
32%
Agricultural,
non-irrigated
Residential Recreational Ranch Timber United States

Irrigated to Total Land Sales
Comparison
*Based on the most recent sale of the respondents.
observations.
2%
5%
10% 9%
41%
18%
9%
7% 7% 9% 8%
33% 31%
24%
7%
4% 4%
11%
34%
48%
28%
7%
2%
4%
8%
38% 38%
10%
States

Land Sales With Mineral Rights
Conveyed
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents.
observations, Nearly 70% of U.S. Lands Sold Had Mineral
Rights Conveyed, With Greater Frequency in Regions 1,2,3.
53%
76%
68%
53% 51%
57%
60%
68%
75% 71%
56% 53%
50%
64%
57%
77%
79%
68%
40% 42%
61%
76%
72%
77%
61%
54%
42%
68%
States
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey

Survey Conclusions
 Respondents who conducted most of
their business in the U.S. between
October 2015‒September 2016 reported
modest price and sales growth.
◦ Timber and residential land sales had the strongest
growth, while sales of agricultural lands fell.
◦ Demand for housing appeared to have boosted
residential land sales, while falling commodity
prices negatively impacted agricultural land sales.
 In the next 12 months, respondents
expect dollar volume of sales to increase
at an average of 2% and prices to
increase at an average of 1%.
◦ Timber, development, and residential land are
expected to continue to be the bright spots, while
agricultural land sales are expected to stay
essentially flat.

Technical Appendix
 This graph compares the
distribution of the sample of
respondents based on their self-
identified region (“sample”) to the
distribution of the members and
prospective members based on
their regional classification
provided by the REALTORS®
Land Institute (‘’population”).
The chart shows an under-response in Regions 1, 5, and 6.

Technical Appendix Continued
 To align the distribution across regions of the
sample to the distribution across regions of the
target population, each respondent was given a
weight factor based on the respondent’s region
of primary business which the respondent self-
identified in the survey. The weight is calculated
as:
◦ Weight of region i = percent share of region i based on the
target distribution percent share of region i based on the
sample distribution
 In cases of under-response, the weight will be
greater than 1 (Regions 1, 5, and 6). In cases of
over-response, the weight will be less than 1
(Regions 2, 3, 4, Canada, Other International).
 Each response is then multiplied by the
appropriate weight factor based on the
respondent’s indicated region of primary
business.

Thank You
 The REALTORS® Land Institute, “The Voice of Land,” provides the expertise,
camaraderie, and resources that are the foundation for all land real estate professionals
to become the best in the business. The RLI continually strives to maintain its status as
the acknowledged leader for all matters pertaining to the land real estate profession is the
essential membership organization for the extraordinary real estate professionals who
broker, lease, sell, develop, and manage our most precious resource: the land.
 The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is
America’s largest trade association, representing over 1 million members, including
NAR’s institutes, societies, and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry.
 The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Research Division collects and
disseminates timely, accurate, and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct
economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, policy makers,
and the media in a professional and accessible manner.
REALTORS® Land Institute
430 N. Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
United States
Phone: 800-441-5263
rliland.com
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of
REALTORS®
Research Division
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
Phone: 202-383-1000
Realtor.org

2016 Land Markets Survey

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (11)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to 2016 Land Markets Survey

Similar to 2016 Land Markets Survey (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

2016 Land Markets Survey

Editor's Notes