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Heizer 05
- 1. Operations
Management
Chapter 5 –
Design of Goods
and Services
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer/Render
Principles of Operations Management, 7e
Operations Management, 9e
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–1
- 2. Outline
Global Company Profile: Regal
Marine
Goods and Services Selection
Product Strategy Options Support
Competitive Advantage
Product Life Cycles
Life Cycle and Strategy
Product-by-Value Analysis
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–2
- 3. Outline - Continued
Generating New Products
New Product Opportunities
Importance of New Products
Product Development
Product Development System
Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
Organizing for Product Development
Manufacturability and Value
Engineering
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–3
- 4. Outline - Continued
Issues for Product Design
Robust Design
Modular Design
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)
Virtual Reality Technology
Value Analysis
Ethics and Environmentally Friendly
Design
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–4
- 5. Outline - Continued
Time-Based Competition
Purchasing Technology by Acquiring
a Firm
Joint Ventures
Alliances
Defining a Product
Make-or-Buy Decisions
Group Technology
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–5
- 6. Outline - Continued
Documents For Production
Product Life-Cycle Management (PLM)
Service Design
Documents for Services
Application of Decision Trees to
Product Design
Transition to Production
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–6
- 7. Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you should
be able to :
1. Define product life cycle
2. Describe a product development system
3. Build a house of quality
4. Describe how time-based competition is
implemented
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–7
- 8. Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you should
be able to :
5. Describe how products and services
are defined
6. Prepare the documents needed for
production
7. Describe customer participation in the
design and production of services
8. Apply decision trees to product issues
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–8
- 9. Regal Marine
Global market
3-dimensional CAD system
Reduced product development time
Reduced problems with tooling
Reduced problems in production
Assembly line production
JIT
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5–9
- 10. Product Decision
The good or service the
organization provides society
Top organizations typically focus on
core products
Customers buy satisfaction, not just
a physical good or particular service
Fundamental to an organization's
strategy with implications
throughout the operations function
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 10
- 11. Product Strategy Options
Differentiation
Shouldice Hospital
Low cost
Taco Bell
Rapid response
Toyota
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 11
- 12. Product Life Cycles
May be any length from a few
hours to decades
The operations function must
be able to introduce new
products successfully
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 12
- 13. Product Life Cycles
Cost of development and production
Sales, cost, and cash flow
Sales revenue
Net revenue (profit)
Cash
flow
Negative
cash flow Loss
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Figure 5.1
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 13
- 14. Product Life Cycle
Introduction
Fine tuning may warrant
unusual expenses for
Research
Product development
Process modification and
enhancement
Supplier development
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 14
- 15. Product Life Cycle
Growth
Product design begins to
stabilize
Effective forecasting of
capacity becomes necessary
Adding or enhancing capacity
may be necessary
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 15
- 16. Product Life Cycle
Maturity
Competitors now established
High volume, innovative
production may be needed
Improved cost control,
reduction in options, paring
down of product line
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 16
- 17. Product Life Cycle
Decline
Unless product makes a
special contribution to the
organization, must plan to
terminate offering
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 17
- 18. Product Life Cycle Costs
100 –
Costs committed
80 –
Percent of total cost
60 –
Costs incurred
40 –
20 –
0– Ease of change
Concept Detailed Manufacturing Distribution,
design design service,
prototype and disposal
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 18
- 19. Product-by-Value Analysis
Lists products in descending
order of their individual dollar
contribution to the firm
Lists the total annual dollar
contribution of the product
Helps management evaluate
alternative strategies
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 19
- 20. Product-by-Value Analysis
Sam’s Furniture Factory
Individual Total Annual
Contribution ($) Contribution ($)
Love Seat $102 $36,720
Arm Chair $87 $51,765
Foot Stool $12 $6,240
Recliner $136 $51,000
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 20
- 21. New Product Opportunities
1. Understanding the
customer
2. Economic change
3. Sociological and
demographic change
rming
4. Technological change Br ainsto l tool
is a usefu
5. Political/legal change
6. Market practice, professional
standards, suppliers, distributors
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 21
- 22. Importance of New Products
Percentage of Sales from New Products
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Industry Top Middle Bottom
leader third third third
Position of Firm in Its Industry Figure 5.2
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 22
- 23. New Products at Disney
Millions of visitors Figure 5.2
50 –
Magic Kingdom
40 – Combined data only prior to 1993
Epcot
Disney-MGM Studios
30 – Animal Kingdom
20 –
10 –
0–
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 23
- 24. Product Development
System
Ideas
Ability Figure 5.3
Customer Requirements
Functional Specifications
Scope of Product Specifications Scope for
product design and
Design Review engineering
development teams
team Test Market
Introduction
Evaluation
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 24
- 25. Quality Function
Deployment
Identify customer wants
Identify how the good/service will satisfy
customer wants
Relate customer wants to product hows
Identify relationships between the firm’s hows
Develop importance ratings
Evaluate competing products
Compare performance to desirable technical
attributes
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 25
- 26. QFD House of Quality
Interrelationships
Customer
importance
How to satisfy
ratings
customer wants
Competitive
assessment
What the Relationship
customer matrix
wants
Target values Weighted
rating
Technical
evaluation
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 26
- 27. House of Quality Example
Your team has been charged with
designing a new camera for Great
Cameras, Inc.
The first action is
to construct a
House of Quality
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 27
- 28. Interrelationships
House of Quality Example
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
What the
Technical
Attributes and
Evaluation
customer
wants Customer
importance
rating
(5 = highest)
Lightweight 3
Easy to use 4
Reliable 5
Easy to hold steady 2
Color correction 1
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 28
- 29. Interrelationships
House of Quality Example
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
Technical
Low electricity requirements
Attributes and
Evaluation
Aluminum components
Ergonomic design
Auto exposure
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Paint pallet
Auto focus
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 29
- 30. Interrelationships
House of Quality Example
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
High relationship Technical
Attributes and
Evaluation
Medium relationship
Low relationship
Lightweight 3
Easy to use 4
Reliable 5
Easy to hold steady 2
Color corrections 1
Relationship matrix
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 30
- 31. Interrelationships
House of Quality Example
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
Technical
Attributes and
Evaluation
Low electricity requirements
Relationships
between the
things we can do
Aluminum components
Ergonomic design
Auto exposure
Paint pallet
Auto focus
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 31
- 32. Interrelationships
House of Quality Example
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
Technical
Attributes and
Evaluation
Lightweight 3
Easy to use 4
Reliable 5
Easy to hold steady 2
Color corrections 1
Our importance ratings 22 9 27 27 32 25
Weighted
rating
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 32
- 33. Interrelationships
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
House of Quality Example
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
Technical
Attributes and
Company A
Company B
Evaluation
How well do
competing products
meet customer wants
Lightweight 3 G P
Easy to use 4 G P
Reliable 5 F G
Easy to hold steady 2 G P
Color corrections 1 P P
Our importance ratings 22 5
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 33
- 34. Interrelationships
How to Satisfy
Customer Wants
House of Quality Example
Competitors
Analysis of
What the
Relationship
Customer
Matrix
Wants
Technical
Attributes and
Evaluation
Failure 1 per 10,000
Panel ranking
Target
values
2 circuits
(Technical
2’ to ∞
attributes)
0.5 A
75%
Company A 0.7 60% yes 1 ok G
Technical
evaluation Company B 0.6 50% yes 2 ok F
Us 0.5 75% yes 2 ok G
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 34
- 35. House of Quality Example
Low electricity requirements
Aluminum components
Ergonomic design
Auto exposure
Company A
Company B
Paint pallet
Auto focus
Completed
House of Lightweight
Easy to use
3
4
G P
G P
Quality Reliable
Easy to hold steady 2
5 F G
G P
Color correction 1 P P
Our importance ratings 22 9 27 27 32 25
Failure 1 per 10,000
Panel ranking
Target values
(Technical
attributes)
2 circuits
2’ to ∞
0.5 A
75%
Company A 0.7 60% yes 1 ok G
Technical
evaluation Company B 0.6 50% yes 2 ok F
Us 0.5 75% yes 2 ok G
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 35
- 36. House of Quality Sequence
Deploying resources through the
organization in response to
customer requirements
Quality
plan
Production
process
Production
Specific
House
process
components
components
House 4
Specific
Design
characteristics
characteristics
3
House
Design
2
requirements
Customer
House
1
Figure 5.4
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 36
- 37. Organizing for Product
Development
Historically – distinct departments
Duties and responsibilities are defined
Difficult to foster forward thinking
A Champion
Product manager drives the product
through the product development
system and related organizations
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 37
- 38. Organizing for Product
Development
Team approach
Cross functional – representatives
from all disciplines or functions
Product development teams, design
for manufacturability teams, value
engineering teams
Japanese “whole organization”
approach
No organizational divisions
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 38
- 39. Manufacturability and
Value Engineering
Benefits:
1. Reduced complexity of products
2. Additional standardization of products
3. Improved functional aspects of product
4. Improved job design and job safety
5. Improved maintainability (serviceability)
of the product
6. Robust design
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 39
- 40. Cost Reduction of a Bracket
via Value Engineering
Figure 5.5
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 40
- 41. Issues for Product
Development
Robust design
Modular design
Computer-aided design (CAD)
Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM)
Virtual reality technology
Value analysis
Environmentally friendly design
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 41
- 42. Robust Design
Product is designed so that small
variations in production or
assembly do not adversely affect
the product
Typically results in lower cost and
higher quality
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 42
- 43. Modular Design
Products designed in easily
segmented components
Adds flexibility to both production
and marketing
Improved ability to satisfy customer
requirements
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 43
- 44. Computer Aided Design
(CAD)
Using computers to
design products and
prepare engineering
documentation
Shorter development
cycles, improved
accuracy, lower cost
Information and
designs can be
deployed worldwide
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 44
- 45. Extensions of CAD
Design for Manufacturing and Assembly
(DFMA)
Solve manufacturing problems during the
design stage
3-D Object Modeling
Small prototype
development
CAD through the
internet
International data
exchange through STEP
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 45
- 46. Computer-Aided
Manufacturing (CAM)
Utilizing specialized computers
and program to control
manufacturing equipment
Often driven by the CAD system
(CAD/CAM)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 46
- 47. Benefits of CAD/CAM
1. Product quality
2. Shorter design time
3. Production cost reductions
4. Database availability
5. New range of capabilities
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 47
- 48. Virtual Reality Technology
Computer technology used to
develop an interactive, 3-D model of
a product from the basic CAD data
Allows people to ‘see’ the finished
design before a physical model is
built
Very effective in large-scale designs
such as plant layout
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 48
- 49. Value Analysis
Focuses on design improvement
during production
Seeks improvements leading either
to a better product or a product
which can be produced more
economically
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 49
- 50. Ethics and Environmentally
Friendly Designs
It is possible to enhance productivity,
drive down costs, and preserve
resources
Effective at any stage of the product life cycle
Design
Production
Destruction
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 50
- 51. The Ethical Approach
View product design from a
systems perspective
Inputs, processes, outputs
Costs to the firm/costs to
society
Consider the entire life cycle of
the product
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 51
- 52. Goals for Ethical and
Environmentally Friendly
Designs
1. Develop safe and more environmentally
sound products
2. Minimize waste of raw materials and energy
3. Reduce environmental liabilities
4. Increase cost-effectiveness of complying
with environmental regulations
5. Be recognized as a good corporate citizen
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 52
- 53. Guidelines for Environmentally
Friendly Designs
1. Make products recyclable
2. Use recycled materials
3. Use less harmful ingredients
4. Use lighter components
5. Use less energy
6. Use less material
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 53
- 54. Legal and Industry
Standards
For Design …
Federal Drug Administration
Consumer Products Safety Commission
National Highway Safety Administration
Children’s Product Safety Act
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 54
- 55. Legal and Industry
Standards
For Manufacture/Assembly …
Occupational Safety and Health
Administration
Environmental Protection Agency
Professional ergonomic standards
State and local laws dealing with
employment standards, discrimination, etc.
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 55
- 56. Legal and Industry
Standards
For Disassembly/Disposal …
Vehicle Recycling Partnership
Increasingly rigid laws worldwide
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 56
- 57. Time-Based Competition
Product life cycles are becoming
shorter and the rate of
technological change is
increasing
Developing new products faster
can result in a competitive
advantage
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 57
- 58. Product Development
Continuum Strategies
External Development
Figure 5.6 Alliances
Joint ventures
Purchase technology or expertise
by acquiring the developer
Internal Development Strategies
Migrations of existing products
Enhancements to existing products
New internally developed products
Internal Cost of product development Shared
Lengthy Speed of product development Rapid and/
or Existing
High Risk of product development Shared
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 58
- 59. Acquiring Technology
By Purchasing a Firm
Speeds development
Issues concern the fit between the acquired
organization and product and the host
Through Joint Ventures
Both organizations learn
Risks are shared
Through Alliances
Cooperative agreements between
independent organizations
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 59
- 60. Defining The Product
First definition is in terms of
functions
Rigorous specifications are
developed during the design phase
Manufactured products will have an
engineering drawing
Bill of material (BOM) lists the
components of a product
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 60
- 61. Product Documents
Engineering drawing
Shows dimensions, tolerances, and
materials
Shows codes for Group Technology
Bill of Material
Lists components, quantities and
where used
Shows product structure
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 61
- 62. Monterey Jack Cheese
(a) U.S. grade AA. Monterey cheese shall conform to the
following requirements:
(1) Flavor. Is fine and highly pleasing, free from undesirable
flavors and odors. May possess a very slight acid or feed
flavor.
(2) Body and texture. A plug drawn from the cheese shall be
reasonably firm. It shall have numerous small mechanical
openings evenly distributed throughout the plug. It shall not
possess sweet holes, yeast holes, or other gas holes.
(3) Color. Shall have a natural, uniform, bright and attractive
appearance.
(4) Finish and appearance - bandaged and paraffin-dipped.
The rind shall be sound, firm, and smooth providing a good
protection to the cheese.
Code of Federal Regulation, Parts 53 to 109,
General Service Administration
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 62
- 64. Bills of Material
BOM for Panel Weldment
NUMBER DESCRIPTION QTY
A 60-71 PANEL WELDM’T 1
A 60-7 LOWER ROLLER ASSM. 1
R 60-17 ROLLER 1
R 60-428 PIN 1
P 60-2 LOCKNUT 1
A 60-72 GUIDE ASSM. REAR 1
R 60-57-1 SUPPORT ANGLE 1
A 60-4 ROLLER ASSM. 1
02-50-1150 BOLT 1
A 60-73 GUIDE ASSM. FRONT 1
A 60-74 SUPPORT WELDM’T 1
R 60-99 WEAR PLATE 1
02-50-1150 BOLT 1 Figure 5.9 (a)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 64
- 65. Bills of Material
DESCRIPTION QTY
Hard Rock
Bun 1
Cafe’s Hickory Hamburger patty 8 oz.
BBQ Bacon Cheddar cheese 2 slices
Cheeseburger Bacon 2 strips
BBQ onions 1/2 cup
Hickory BBQ sauce 1 oz.
Burger set
Lettuce 1 leaf
Tomato 1 slice
Red onion 4 rings
Pickle 1 slice
French fries 5 oz.
Seasoned salt 1 tsp.
11-inch plate 1
HRC flag 1
Figure 5.9 (b)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 65
- 66. Group Technology
Parts grouped into families with
similar characteristics
Coding system describes
processing and physical
characteristics
Part families can be produced
in dedicated manufacturing cells
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 66
- 67. Group Technology Scheme
(b) Grouped Cylindrical Parts (families of parts)
(a) Ungrouped Parts
Grooved Slotted Threaded Drilled Machined
Figure 5.10
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 67
- 68. Group Technology Benefits
1. Improved design
2. Reduced raw material and purchases
3. Simplified production planning and
control
4. Improved layout, routing, and
machine loading
5. Reduced tooling setup time, work-in-
process, and production time
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 68
- 69. Documents for Production
Assembly drawing
Assembly chart
Route sheet
Work order
Engineering change notices
(ECNs)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 69
- 70. Assembly Drawing
Shows exploded
view of product
Details relative
locations to
show how to
assemble the
product
Figure 5.11 (a)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 70
- 71. Assembly Chart
R 209 Angle
1
Left
R 207 Angle SA bracket
2 A1
Bolts w/nuts (2)
1 assembly
Identifies the point
3 of production
R 209 Angle
4
Right
where components
5
R 207 Angle SA bracket
2 assembly
A2 flow into
6
Bolts w/nuts (2) subassemblies and
Bolt w/nut ultimately into the
7
R 404 Roller final product
8 A3
Lock washer Poka-yoke
9 inspection
Part number tag
10 A4
Box w/packing material
11 A5
Figure 5.11 (b)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 71
- 72. Route Sheet
Lists the operations and times required
to produce a component
Setup Operation
Process Machine Operations Time Time/Unit
1 Auto Insert 2 Insert Component 1.5 .4
Set 56
2 Manual Insert Component .5 2.3
Insert 1 Set 12C
3 Wave Solder Solder all 1.5 4.1
components
to board
4 Test 4 Circuit integrity .25 .5
test 4GY
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 72
- 73. Work Order
Instructions to produce a given quantity
of a particular item, usually to a schedule
Work Order
Item Quantity Start Date Due Date
157C 125 5/2/08 5/4/08
Production Delivery
Dept Location
F32 Dept K11
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 73
- 74. Engineering Change Notice
(ECN)
A correction or modification to a
product’s definition or
documentation
Engineering drawings
Bill of material
Quite common with long product life
cycles, long manufacturing lead times, or
rapidly changing technologies
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 74
- 75. Configuration Management
The need to manage ECNs has led
to the development of configuration
management systems
A product’s planned and changing
components are accurately
identified and control and
accountability for change are
identified and maintained
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 75
- 76. Product Life-Cycle
Management (PLM)
Integrated software that brings
together most, if not all, elements of
product design and manufacture
Product design
CAD/CAM, DFMA
Product routing
Materials
Assembly
Environmental
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 76
- 77. Service Design
Service typically includes direct
interaction with the customer
Increased opportunity for customization
Reduced productivity
Cost and quality are still determined at
the design stage
Delay customization
Modularization
Reduce customer interaction, often
through automation
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 77
- 78. Service Design
(a) Customer participation in design
Service typically includes direct such as pre-arranged funeral services
or cosmetic surgery
interaction with the customer
Increased opportunity for customization
Reduced productivity
(b) Customer participation in
delivery such as stress test for
Cost and quality are still determined at cardiac exam or delivery of a
baby
the design stage
Delay customizationCustomer participation in design and
(c)
delivery such as counseling, college
Modularization education, financial management of
personal affairs, or interior decorating
Reduce customer interaction, often
through automation Figure 5.12
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 78
- 79. Moments of Truth
Concept created by Jan Carlzon of
Scandinavian Airways
Critical moments between the
customer and the organization that
determine customer satisfaction
There may be many of these moments
These are opportunities to gain or
lose business
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 79
- 80. Moments-of-Truth
Computer Company Hotline
Experience Enhancers
The technician was
Standard Expectations sincerely concerned and
apologetic about my
Only one local number problem
Experience Detractors needs to be dialed
He asked intelligent
I never get a busy signal questions that allowed me
I had to call more than to feel confident in his
once to get through I get a human being to
answer my call quickly abilities
A recording spoke to me and he or she is pleasant The technician offered
rather than a person and responsive to my various times to have work
While on hold, I get problem done to suit my schedule
silence,and wonder if I am A timely resolution to my Ways to avoid future
disconnected problem is offered problems were suggested
The technician sounded The technician is able to
like he was reading a form explain to me what I can
of routine questions expect to happen next
The technician sounded
uninterested
I felt the technician rushed Figure 5.13
me
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 80
- 81. Documents for Services
High levels of customer
interaction necessitates different
documentation
Often explicit job instructions
for moments-of-truth
Scripts and storyboards are
other techniques
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 81
- 82. Application of Decision
Trees to Product Design
Particularly useful when there are a
series of decisions and outcomes
which lead to other decisions and
outcomes
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 82
- 83. Application of Decision
Trees to Product Design
Procedures
Include all possible alternatives and
states of nature - including “doing
nothing”
Enter payoffs at end of branch
Determine the expected value of each
branch and “prune” the tree to find
the alternative with the best expected
value
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 83
- 84. Decision Tree Example
(.4)
Purchase CAD
High sales
(.6) Low sales
Hire and train engineers
(.4)
High sales
(.6)
Low sales
Do nothing
Figure 5.14
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 84
- 85. Decision Tree Example
$2,500,000 Revenue
(.4) - 1,000,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 25,000)
Purchase CAD - 500,000 CAD cost
High sales
$1,000,000 Net
$800,000 Revenue
(.6) Low sales - 320,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 8,000)
- 500,000 CAD cost
Hire and train engineers - $20,000 Net loss
(.4)
High sales
EMV (purchase CAD system) = (.4)($1,000,000) + (.6)(- $20,000)
(.6)
Low sales
Do nothing
Figure 5.14
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 85
- 86. Decision Tree Example
$2,500,000 Revenue
(.4) - 1,000,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 25,000)
Purchase CAD - 500,000 CAD cost
$388,000 High sales
$1,000,000 Net
$800,000 Revenue
(.6) Low sales - 320,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 8,000)
- 500,000 CAD cost
Hire and train engineers - $20,000 Net loss
(.4)
High sales
EMV (purchase CAD system) = (.4)($1,000,000) + (.6)(- $20,000)
= $388,000
(.6)
Low sales
Do nothing
Figure 5.14
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 86
- 87. Decision Tree Example
$2,500,000 Revenue
(.4) - 1,000,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 25,000)
Purchase CAD - 500,000 CAD cost
$388,000 High sales
$1,000,000 Net
$800,000 Revenue
(.6) Low sales - 320,000 Mfg cost ($40 x 8,000)
- 500,000 CAD cost
Hire and train engineers - $20,000 Net loss
$365,000
$2,500,000 Revenue
(.4) - 1,250,000 Mfg cost ($50 x 25,000)
- 375,000 Hire and train cost
High sales
$875,000 Net
$800,000 Revenue
(.6) - 400,000 Mfg cost ($50 x 8,000)
- 375,000 Hire and train cost
Low sales
Do nothing $0 $25,000 Net
$0 Net Figure 5.14
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 87
- 88. Transition to Production
Know when to move to production
Product development can be viewed as
evolutionary and never complete
Product must move from design to
production in a timely manner
Most products have a trial production
period to insure producibility
Develop tooling, quality control, training
Ensures successful production
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 88
- 89. Transition to Production
Responsibility must also transition as the
product moves through its life cycle
Line management takes over from design
Three common approaches to managing
transition
Project managers
Product development teams
Integrate product development and
manufacturing organizations
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. 5 – 89