1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop

Is Multi-Touch Attribution Really
the Holy Grail of Marketing
Measurement?
Confidential: Cannot be shared without permission from the Mobile Marketing Association
What marketers need to drive marketing
productivity in a digital, mobile age
An output of MMA’s
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 7
Greg Stuart
CEO MMA
greg@mmaglobal.com

Wow, What a F$^#*@$^
Mess This MTA Thing Is!
Some of MMA’s Learnings from a 2-Year Journey to get
Good Marketing Productivity into the Marketplace
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 7
The title they
should have
used
Greg Stuart
CEO MMA
greg@mmaglobal.com

Today’s Agenda
1. Who is the MMA and what is MATT?
2. What Does MMA’s MATT Know?
3. How is MMA Trying to Help?
3 Confidential: Cannot be shared without permission from the Mobile Marketing Association

Today’s Agenda
4

MMA is the Industry Trade Assoc. for Mobile Marketing
800+ members WW
Operating in 12
countries
Started in 2003; turned
around in 2013
Marketer led; plus
media sellers, tech
and agencies
50 staff worldwide
20+ events in 15
countries
MMA
APAC
MMA
EMEA
MMA
LATAM
MMA
No. Amer.

MMA Global Board of Directors - 65% Marketers
Sanjay Gupta
Chair
CMO
Susan Canavari
Chief Brand Officer
Ilonka Laviz
Global Digital Mktg Dir.,
Global eBusiness
Peter McGuinness
Chief Mktg &
Brand Officer
Kellyn Kenny
VP, Marketing
Tim Mahoney
CMO
Marc Mathieu
CMO
Karin Timpone
Global Mktg Officer
Andrew Sherrard
CMO
Allan Thygesen
President, Americas
Jeff Lucas
CRO
Matt Derella
Global CRO
Peter Hamilton
CEO
Tom Kenney
CEO
John Trimble
CRO
Will Kassoy
CEO
Dave Morgan
CEO
Cameron Clayton
CEO & General Manager
Suzy Deering
CMO
Rebecca Messina
CMO
Ayesha Gilarde
CMO
Wanda Young
CMO
Tony Rogers
CMO
David Godsman
CDO
Michael Donnelly
NA Regional Rep
SVP, Global
Digital Marketing
Ernesto Echeverri
LATAM Regional Rep
Dir. Mktg USA,
Canada & Caribbean
Alberto ‘Banano’
Pardo
LATAM Regional Rep
Founder & CEO
Louis Paskalis
NA Regional Rep.
SVP Enterprise Media
Executive Bank Of America
David Lowes
EMEA Regional Rep
CMO
Carolyn Everson
Global Secretary
VP, Global Mktg Solutions
Luis Di Como
Exec Comm at Large
SVP, Global Media
Jack Philbin
Exec Comm at Large
Co-Founder & CEO
Stephen McCarthy
Global Treasurer
CFO
(xAd)
John Costello
Global Chair Emeritus
Former Pres., Global
Mktg & Innovation
Greg Stuart
MMA
CEO Mobile Marketing
Association

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Privacy
Mobile Messaging
Ad Blocking
Ad Fraud
Internet of Things
Mobile Social
Mobile Shopper Marketing
Mobile Native
Viewability
Mobile Creative
Mobile Data Accuracy
Mobile Video
Location Targeting
Mobile Programmatic
Effectiveness and ROI Measurement
Measurement and Attribution
Marketers
Total
According to past MMA membership research,
Measurement and Attribution tops the needs list
N=507, Here is a list of themes that relate to the mobile marketing ecosystem. Which of them are currently more important priorities for your company?

Former Chief Research Officer of the ARF
Joel Rubinson
Rubinson Partners, Inc.| President
Email: joel@rubinsonpartners.com
Web: http://blog.joelrubinson.net
MMA’s MATT
Subject Matter Expert

But What Led MMA
Board to Believe
MTA was Important
In 2013 MMA raised $3
million to Gain an
Understanding of the
Value/ROI of Marketing
Mix in the age of
Mobile
9

SMoX Was Our Answer
So far We Have Measured 11 In-Market Campaigns
10
Association of National
Advertisers
American Association of
Advertising Agencies
Partners
2
QSR

TV
Print
Internet
FSI
Cinema
Social
Radio
OOH
Mobile Display
Display,
video,
social
Display,
video,
native,
location
Display,
audio,
video
social
Display,
video,
social
Display,
video,
social
Display,
video,
social
Display,
RM,
Weather
targeting,
social,
video
Display,
Video,
behavioral,
retargeting,
location,
contextual
Display,
Video,
RM, social
Contextual,
location,
daypart11
2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017
Each Campaign Measured a Variety of Media Mix
QSR

SMoX Methodology:
12
Exposure to Advertising Media
Who you are and other context variables
(where you are, have you purchased before, time of the day,
weather, etc)
Outcomes
Did your opinion
change?
Did you download
the app?
Did you go to the
store?
Did you buy?
Our approach is based on “person level” data. Goal is to isolate and measure the impact of mobile and various
other factors in driving “outcomes”

Offline Sales Data
From customer
Repository of Person
Level Data, with PII
information for
automated matching
Anonymized and integrated
data at the individual level
across all data sources
Complete Dataset to
Marketing Evolution
for analytics
Media Exposure
Ad Agency/Trading Desk/ DSP
Survey Sample
Attitudinal metrics &
Psychographics
$ $ $ $
*Alternate processes are available ig LiveRamp is not an option for the customer specific situation.
SMoX Methodology: How data is connected
13

Social Search DMP/CRM Purchases
$ $ $
Geo-Location
Zip code
5 miles from store
Media & Creative Brand Perceptions
Very Familiar
Likely to Purchase
Demographics
23 yrs. old
Model Data Set:
The data set from LiveRamp includes information on the customer’s demographic profile, media consumption, online behavior, and purchasing history.
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20
ImpactonKPI
Frequency of Exposure
Frequency to Lift Response Functions
Logistic Regression Modeling:
Message Impact within a Media: The dataset is modeled to
determine the relationship between media and creative
exposure and the campaign goal (e.g. sales, awareness, etc.).
Interactions: From our logistic regression modeling we also
determine how media and creative impact varies by different
consumers.
2
TV Ad A
Digital Ad 1
Digital Ad 2
TV Ad B
$
$ $
Zip code
1 mile from store
Zip code
10 miles from store
A B 1
A B C
1 2
Not Familiar
Not Likely to
Purchase
Very Familiar
Very likely to
Purchase
50 yrs. old
45 yrs. old
Methodology: Person Level Analysis & Optimization
14
Putting it all together: Marketing Evolution then combines
message impact from the logistic regression model,
demographic interactions, and media reach, frequency,
composition and cost.
3

SMoX Historical Patterns in Optimized Levels of Mobile
in the Marketing Mix are..
15
1%
5% 4% 6% 5%
12% 11%
16%
26%
20%
15%
12%
15% 15%
19%
17% 17%
33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
AT&T Gold Peak
Tea/Coca Cola
MasterCard Walmart 825 Coca Cola
China
Coca Cola
Brazil
Unilever
Magnum
Allstate Top 5 QSR
% of mobile display in the mx (ex search)
Optimal allocations based on SMoX Studies
considering relative ROA/efficiency vs other media
Gap to Optimal
Actual Spend

And SMoX Historical ROI when Mobile is Optimized in
Mix and within Mobile itself (vs. same budget, no mobile)
16
18%
7%
17% 14% 16%
60%
13% 7%
166%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
AT&T Gold Peak
Tea/Coca Cola
MasterCard Walmart 825 Coca Cola
China
Coca Cola
Brazil
Unilever
Magnum
Allstate Top 5 QSR
% of mobile display in the mx (ex search)
Increase in Key Business Outcomes
Based Mobile in the Mix vs. No Mobile
Increase in Key
Business Outcomes
Sales
SalesSalesSalesSalesBrand Image Sales
Store
Traffic

17
It is Crazy that we Think We Can Look at Creative
and Know if Is Working/Effective
17
Branding:
Aided Awareness/
$ spent*
Sales:
ROI
Mobile Display
with weather
targeting
Mobile
Display
Campaign Average
(across all media) 100 100
*Index is based on Number of people who became aware of Magnum per $ spent.
200 147
175 ZERO

*Index is based on Number of people who became more likely to consider Allstate / $ spent
We’ve Consistently Believed Targeting Improves
Performance. But How Much is Question!
Mobile Video
Targeting
Consideration / $ Spent
+ Behavioral
targeting
+ Contextual
targeting
Demographic
targeting 100
18
320
191

New Data Integrations Combined with Personalization of
Mobile Creates New Opportunities
(for offer oriented QSR campaign) Foot traffic /
$ spent*
Commuter
Coupon User
Campaign Average
(across all media) 100
518
500
19
Top 5
QSR

…How else do you assess the value of ad unit combination #159:
Or, Mobile video channel targeting men who
have visited a dealership in the last 7 days
…How else do you assess the value of ad unit combination #395:
Or, Mobile audio channel targeting women who
commute by a QSR regularly over last month
…Versus the 500+ other ad format, data, target, time of day, context, location,
etc. combinations
Based on That, the Case for MTA is…:
20

A Year Ago, We Announced…
21
MATT is a community of industry experts committed to rethinking
the world of marketing measurement and attribution; seeking to
give marketers better measurements, tools and confidence in
connecting marketing to business outcomes.
All MMA members are invited to participate in MATT

With a Powerhouse MTA Steering Executive Committee to
guide initiative strategy
Luis Di Como
SVP/Global Media
Unilever
Lou Paskalis
SVP/Enterprise Media
Planning, Investment &
Measurement Exec.
Bank of America
Amit Shah
CMO
1-800-Flowers.com
Sanjay Gupta
EVP/Marketing, Innovation
& Corporate Relations
Allstate Insurance
Company
22

And Amazing List of MMA Board Member Participants to support
MATT Leadership
23

GlobalBoardKicksOffProject MATT is now Nearly 2-Years in the Learning
CMO
Review
of RFI
submissions and
1:1 interviews
Provider Evaluation MTA Selection Tool Development
RFI to
Providers
500 pages of
Responses
from 19
qualified
providers
15
In-depth
Discussions
+ Academics
Quantitative
Survey I of
Marketers
N = 190
Input from
Joint
MTA Board
Committees
Guidance for
Marketers on how
to choose the right
providers
Marketer Needs Assessment
MTA Board
Task Force
Feedback
Quantitative
Survey II of
Marketers
N = 400
Technical
Analytics
Experts
Analytics
Expert
Land-
scape
Report
How-To
RFI
MTA
Scoring
Tool
Glossary
30 Hours
Phone
Review
4-Part MTA
Webinar Series
for Marketers
2016 2nd Half 2017 1st Half
MTA
Provider
Interviews
Working Group Formation
24
Data Quality
& Accuracy
Working
Group
MTA
Success
Workbook
2017 2nd Half
Color Key: Light Blue = Inputs from Marketers and Vendors
Aqua = Inputs from Survey, RFI, or Interviews
Dark Blue = Outputs in form of MTA Acceleration Tools
Walled
Gardens
Working
Group
Input
from 78
Member
Marketers
Data
Strategy
Guide
Data
Acquisiti
on RFI
Marketer
Survey III
MATT Data
Map 2.0
WG
Position
Paper

Today’s Agenda
25

The MATT Marketers Defined MTA as…
26
Multi-Touch Attribution: The science of
using advanced analytics,
• on user level data,
• to allocate proportional credit,
• across a granular list of marketing
touchpoints across many,
• and hopefully all, online and offline channels,
leading to a desired customer outcome.
Excluded: Traditional MMM, brand tracking and last-touch attribution methods

MMA Survey’s: 1/3rd of marketers currently use MTA –
And 3/4er’s will be using it in 18 months
34% 34%
49%
66% 76%15%
17%
10%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Yes we curently use MTA We will use in 6 months We will use in 12 months We will use in 18 months We dont plan to use in the
near future
75%
81% of current users use one of the main
MTA providers. The rest uses other
providers or internal solutions
Does your company currently use a multi touch attribution (MTA) solution or do you plan to use one in the
future? N=412, Total Sample

Most marketers use MTA selectively and many
are Unsure the Benefits outweigh its Cost.
Majority of marketers use MTA
selectively, not across all of their
budget
Six out of 10 marketers think
their MTA solution, on average,
drives some incremental results
or ROI
Yet, the majority are not convinced
the cost of MTA is worth the benefits
35%
18%
16%
17%
15%
Less than
10%
10% to 30%
30% to 50%
50% to 70%
70% to 100%
5%
28%
22%
11%
2%
32%
No increase
Up to 10% on average
Up to 10-20% on
average
Up to 20-40% on
average
40% and above
Not sure / Don’t Know 2%
10%
27%
43%
18%
Definitely not
Probably not
Not sure
Yes, probably
Yes, definitely
What share of your total marketing budget (including
advertising) do you assess roughly speaking, using a
Multi-Touch Attribution solution? (Please consider
whether you use MTA for all or just some of your
marketing activities and channels)
Based on your experience, what do you
think is the average impact/lift of using
your MTA solution on the total ROI of
your marketing activities?
Does your current MTA solution pay off for
its cost, in terms of driving incremental ROI
and impact for your marketing spend to
justify its cost? N=107,

The Problem is that the 34% that Utilize MTA Hate it.
REALLY, hate it!
MMA interviews and a quantitative survey reveal the following marketer
views on MTA:
-29%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
MTA providers have a dismal Net
Promoter ScoreLow Satisfaction.
Marketers not happy with the data they are getting.
Fragmented Provider Ecosystem.
Top 10 providers account for only two-thirds of use.
Mistrust and Hesitation.
Marketers have a huge lack of trust, and hesitate to
use MTA.**
Minimal Expert Understanding.
Marketers don’t have MTA expertise.
Different Approaches.
19 providers, 25 modeling methods Overall how likely is it you would recommend your main multi touch attribution
(MTA) provider? N=118, Total MTA users
1NPS style calculation created from 10 pt satisfaction question

And for Good Reason. We found 25 different
modeling techniques - a prescription for chaos!
30
1. Agent-based modeling
2. Bayesian machine learning
3. Bayesian shrinkage
4. Control theory
5. Counter-factuals
6. Doubly robust propensity modeling
7. Elastic net
8. Ensemble based probabilistic
9. Experimental design
10. Frequent pattern analysis
11. GLM
12. Hidden stage Markov models
13. Hierarchical regression
14. LASSO
15. Last touch
16. Logistic regression
17. Monte Carlo simulation
18. Probability of exposure
19. Shapley values
20. Structural equation models
21. Survey based measurement
22. Time decay
23. Time series
24. Utility theory
25. Vector autoregression

And Marketers REALLY want Confidence
31
2%
3%
7%
5%
5%
7%
8%
5%
16%
15%
28%
5%
15%
7%
5%
7%
10%
5%
5%
16%
13%
13%
3%
5%
11%
18%
10%
7%
8%
13%
3%
8%
13%
2%
7%
3%
8%
11%
13%
18%
13%
8%
10%
7%
10%
3%
11%
5%
11%
8%
7%
13%
8%
11%
11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Enhance Mobile Readiness
Breaking down “Walled Gardens”
Data Quality and Accuracy
Standardize and leverage Unified IDs
Single source Linkage to sales data
Facilitate Agile Marketing
Specific approach for Offline Media
Transparency of Approach
Validation of results and outcomes
Use MTA for both Brand and Performance goals
Prove lift in Campaign Performance
Most Important 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Below is a list of areas that marketers have identified as important priorities to improve the value they receive
from MTA solutions. Which of these priorities would make MTA more valuable to you and your organization.
Please rank the top 5 with 1 being most important.
Marketers
need
CONFIDENCE

But it Appears There is Not Acceptable
Proof of MTA Performance from ANYONE
1. Model predicts “what if” results that
are proven true via A/B experiment
outcome (“better outcome…”)
2. Relative effectiveness of different
touchpoints is proven by
experimentation (“got there for the
right reasons…”)
3. If analysis is repeated on the same
data, you get the same results
(“reliable” and transparent, not
hocus pocus”)
“We measure incremental lift vs. those
who received no media exposure”.
[Flawed approach]
”we measure the fit of predicted to actual
conversion/non-conversions” [flawed:
easy to be 99% right by just guessing
non-conversions.]
“In one case, we…” [anecdotal]
Net, not much or any proof!
But…
3 characteristics of MTA
analytics accuracy we were
looking for:
What providers offered as “proof”
was not satisfying

1. MTA project starts as a “Big Data”
project, but marketers are not data
architects
But the Real Problem?
YOU [marketers] AREN’T READY FOR MTA!!!
“MTA is first and
foremost a big
data project and
many big data
projects fail”
- MTA Provider
33

1. MTA project starts as a “Big Data”
project, but marketers are not data
architects
2. Data quality is not validated
3. Data completeness is needed, therefore
walled gardens are a challenge
4. Marketer expectations are higher than
what providers can deliver when data
assets are not in shape
But the Real Problem?
YOU [marketers] AREN’T READY FOR MTA!!!
“MTA is first and
foremost a big
data project and
many big data
projects fail”
- MTA Provider
“Until we trust
the data no one
will accept the
MTA analysis that
is built on it”
- Marketer
34

MMA Identified 12 Elements of “Good MTA”
35
Elements of
Attribution Solutions
Education
Definitions
Needed
Code of
Conduct
Best
Practices
Validation
Research
Standards
Auditing
Para-
meters
Transparency of Approach X X
Validation of Results and Outcomes X X X
Standardize and Leverage Unified IDs X X X X X
Prove Lift in Campaign Performance X X X
Specific Approach for Offline Media X X X X X
Facilitate Agile Marketing X X
Single Source Linkage to Sales Data X X X X
Comprehensive Answers for Planning & Budgeting X X X
Enhance Mobile Readiness X X X X X X X
Use MTA for Both Brand and Performance Goals X X X
Data Quality & Accuracy (and Walled Gardens) X X X X X X
Experimental Design X X X X

Today’s Agenda
36

Applied to
34.7% of
Campaigns
(on avg.)
34%
Already
Have an
MTA
Solution
MATT’s MTA Mission…
This is where we started
-29
NPS!
37 Based on MMA Survey from November 2016.

Started with “Selecting…” Launched in 2016
38
* The Decision Guide is available for members only at http://www.mmaglobal.com/matt.
The Report:
A comprehensive
guide to MTA
MTA RFI Template
Scoring Tool:
To help with
evaluation
4-Part MATT MTA
Webinar Series
Part 1:
Intro to Multi-Touch Attribution
(MTA) Methods
Part 2:
Selecting the Best MTA
Provider For Your Needs
Part 3:
Making Sense of Attribution
Approaches
Part 4:
Leveraging MTA to Improve
Marketing Effectiveness

MMA Released 2 Weeks Ago….
39
+
First two of five new MTA Acceleration Tools to help Marketers apply MTA with Confidence.

North America
1.) MMA MTA Data Map™
40
One Visual for MTA Strategy Conversations
• Poster-sized framework for a more complete
and collaborative picture
• Used by marketer, agency, DMP, and MTA
provider to ensure nothing gets “left out” of
the strategy discussion
Four Buckets for Thinking about Data
1. Linkable
2. Aggregate
3. Profiling
4. Conversions

Value to Marketers
Most researchers, marketers, and analytics people
are not data architects, so this guide helps all teams
understand the data assets it will take to achieve
success with MTA.
The MTA Data Strategy Guide…
1. Provides a section by section explanation of what
should be considered in the MTA data planning
process
2. Defines Data Asset Types and Relational
Structures
3. Defines Linking of different types of data
2.) Data Strategy Guide
41
“MTA is first and foremost a big data project and many big data projects fail…” - MTA Provider

More “Applying…” Coming in Late 2017
42
MTA Success
Workbook
MTA Data Strategy
Guide
Data
Acquisition RFI
Position Paper on
Walled Gardens
Up Next…

Summary…the marketer journey from Point A to Point B
(and what the MMA is doing to make change happen)
43
34% adoption
-29 NPS
Less than 10%
impact on
marketing ROI
Select and Apply
with Confidence
• MTA selection
tools
• MTA big data
readiness tools
• Other validation,
white papers,
tools
75% adoption
Positive NPS
20%+ impact on
marketing ROI
Join

Thankyou!
44
1-800-Flowers.com* Dunkin Brands* MillerCoors* Colgate-Palmolive MetLife
Alex Treglia Philip Solomon Bill Cramblit Danielle Koffer Joseph Presson
Stephen McDonagh Ford Motor Co* Pamela Caruth Marilyn Rice Microsoft
Allstate* Artur Timotheo Samsung* Shelley Ivanko Kishore Krishna
John Baronello Dennis Bulgarelli Jesse Lasakris Coty Inc. Michele Garner
Pamela Moy Sharon Russel Marina Koletis Kristina Kaganer Rentola Olli
American Express OPEN* General Motors Corp* Stephen Murray Expedia Inc Mondelez International
Brian Coleman Chris Hurst T-Mobile* Ameya Karvir Michele Levedag
Greg Bongen Joe Mazeika Gavin Olmstead Vinoth Kumar PetSmart Inc
Hy Nguyen Laura Hernandez-Romine Mark Roettgering Gap Michelle Mader
Ian Mcdonald GlaxoSmithKline* Millie Chu Chris Martinez Pfizer Consumer Healthcare
Kayla Cohen Philomena Luk Target Brands, Inc.* Hallmark Tara Thomas
Maribeth Crane Scott Reep Meghna Sinha Kemp Strickler Safe Auto Insurance Company
Niki Arya Terri Coscia The Coca-Cola Company* Stacy Yehle Sloane Stegen
Bank of America* JP Morgan Chase Bank* Gregory Pharo Hotels.com SUBWAY®
Abby Mehta Aaron Smolick Leana Less Kevin Roche Amy Bytell
Chobani* Chris Hurlebaus Uber* Johnson & Johnson TD Ameritrade
Danielle Cherry Marriott International* Kim Larsen Aleks Petkovski Michael Bosco
Choice Hotels* Carlisle Connally Travis Smith Igor Levin The Wendy's Company
Lindsay Coffelt Stephanie Eilers Vijay Raj Kellogg Co James Bennett
Olga Nielsen Mastercard Worldwide* American Family Mutual Ins Co Janelle Bowman USPS
Sarah Searls Curt Fournier Andrew Jakubowski McDonalds Corporation Raymond Van Iterson
Nilambuj Singh Campbell's Soup Bryan Duffy Sachin Agarwal
Kakoli Seal Jennifer Feldman Tim O'Brien
Abakus (SAP) Analytic Partners Convertro
Neustar / MarketShare Marketing Evolution * = MMA Board Member

Is Multi-Touch Attribution Really
the Holy Grail of Marketing
Measurement?
What marketers need to drive marketing
productivity in a digital, mobile age
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 7
Greg Stuart
CEO MMA
greg@mmaglobal.com
So, to our core
question…?

We Don’t Know Yet But we Sure
as Heck Are Trying to Figure out
The Promise might be bigger than we think but the hurdles
are big and audacious. Perfect for a group working together
to make the world of marketing better and more modern
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 7
Want to join our struggle?

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
committed people can change the world.
Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
-- Margaret Mead
Cultural anthropologist
47
Thank you
Greg Stuart
CEO MMA
greg@mmaglobal.com
+1 631 702 0682

North America
Using the MMA MTA Data Map™
48

1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (13)

Similar to 1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop

Similar to 1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop (20)

More from Rising Media, Inc.

More from Rising Media, Inc. (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop