915 e metrics_claudia perlich

PARADOX OF BIG DATA AND
PREDICITIVE MODELING
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
What AI can and cannot teach us about ourselves ...

ATTENTION DURING SUPER BOWL
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

Attention
HOW DO I KNOW? @claudia_perlich
@dstillery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Work
with Brand
300 Million (US) consumer
100 Billion
bid requests per day
Ad
Exchange
Measurement
Conversion
PROGRAMMATIC

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Attention
ATTENTION = DIVERTED EYEBALLS
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Bid reduction compared to weekend before

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Measure
Design
Messaging
‘Optimize’
Audience
Typical Use of Programmatic
Third Party
Measurement
‘Optimizing’
Audience
Creative
Design
TYPICAL USE OF PROGRAMMATIC:
Efficient Media Delivery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
I will try to look good in your chosen metric
MEASUREMENT = AUDIENCE

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
IoT Device
VALUE OF PROGRAMMATIC DATA
100 Billion Events per Day

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
buzzfeed.com
3/20/16
Predicting events on pretty much everything
amazon.com
4/11/16
nytimes.com
2/15/16
50.240.135.41
166. 216.165.92
207.246.152.60
108.49.133.218
38.104.253.134
208.76.113.13
Mlb.com
3/15/16
Etrade.com
4/25/16
Zip 4
10023-4592
04/15/16
Zip 4
10023-6924
04/20/16
Zip 4
10016-2324
03/10/16
03/14/16
Web App
Phone/Tablet
Desktop
Phone/Tablet
com.mlb.atbat
04/20/16
com.rovio.angry
02/26/16
com.myfitnesspal.android
3/25/16
4/18/16
IDFA
31AB-26FC-
94AE-756B
azure.microsoft.com
4/10/16
PREDICTING BRAND EVENTS ON EVERYTHING

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
SCORINGCONNECT
CAMPAIGN PROGRESS
Conversion
+
+
+
+
No Longer
in Market
XX
Add to
Prospect Pool
and Serve Ad
+
+
-
-
+
+
DELIVER MEDIA = HIGH PREDICTIONS

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
1.0M
2.0M
3.0M
4.0M
5.0M
6.0M
NNLiftoverRON
TotalImpressions
median lift = 5x
Liftoverbaseline
<snip>
NICE LIFT

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
TAKE A LOOK AT THE DARK SIDE

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
GOOD PREDICTION ARE HARMFUL FOR BAD METRICS

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
6%
2011
36%
2015
NON-HUMAN TRAFFIC

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
PERVASICE FRAUD ON CONVERSIONS

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
CLICKS

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
PEOPLE FUMBLE IN THE DARK

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
CLICK OPTIMIZATION?

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
A/B TEST: CLOSE TO NO IMPACT …

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Measure
Design
Messaging
‘Optimize’
Audience
Typical Use of Programmatic
Third Party
Measurement
‘Optimizing’
Audience
Creative
Design
TYPICAL USE OF PROGRAMMATIC:

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 25
LET’S TALK ABOUT A POTATO

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 26
THE REACTIONS

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
THE CULPRIT

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 28
THE ‘LESSONS’

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 29
THE ‘LESSONS’

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 30
THE ‘LESSONS’

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 31
THE ‘LESSONS’

RETHINKING PROGRAMMATIC
From Media Execution To Understanding

33
Experiment &
Measure
Design
Messaging
Understand
Audience
Through AI in
Programmatic
New Programmatic: Large Scale Digital Focus Group
LARGE SCALE DIGITAL FOCUS GROUP
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

34
YOUR BUZZWORDS HERE ...
AI, Big Data, Machine Learning
How are things different? Which things are similar?

YOU CANNOT ASK COOKIES QUESTIONS,
BUT THEY DO NOT HIDE MUCH …
IoT Device

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 37
SUPERVISED LEARNING
What makes YOUR
customers special?

LEARNING WHAT MAKES PEOPLE SPECIAL?
SAME PROBLEM AS AUDIENCE OPTIMIZATION …
People of interest Everybody else

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
CASE:
BAUME ET MERCIER
To identify an Baume
audience, we identified all the
devices visiting various
Baume-et-mercier.com pages.
The Homepage and the
Watches Page provided the
most signal.

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
OVERALL AUDIENCE PROFILE
A machine-learning algorithm learned to
predict who will go to the Baume watches
page based on digital & physical activity (no
media needed).
We found a few surprising insights.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery … .
What makes Baume customers
special?

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Large Jewish Community which views
Baume et Mercier as the celebration brand.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Insight 1 : Jewish Community &
Celebration

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Insight 2 : Family Car
Land Rover, Range Rover, and more family-
oriented cars are at the top of the list.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Insight 3 : Maternity Shopping
Maternity and children’s stores - A Pea in the Pod,
Motherhood Maternity and Pottery Barn Kids.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Insight 4 : Causes
Majority of support toward fighting poverty both in
US and the World.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Insight 5 : Sports
Strong Anglo-European Influence:
Soccer & Rugby
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery 46
UNSUPERVISED LEARNING
Are there natural
groups (segments)?

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
SEGMENTATION = PERSONAS
IoT Device

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
CASE : NON-DAIRY MILK
MARKET ENTRY
With a new launch in the U.S.,
the brand was looking to
validate and/or disprove their
assumptions from the
European home market.
However, it was not initially
available through retail
channels

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Top Web Visits
www.minimalistbaker.com
www.bobsredmill.com
www.eater.com
www.pcrm.org
www.wholefoodsmarket.com
www.onegreenplanet.org
www.kitchentreaty.com
www.peta.org
www.flysfo.com
www.brickunderground.com
www.traderjoes.com
www.thisamericanlife.org
www.vegetariantimes.com
www.lamag.com
www.mindbodygreen.com
www.coned.com
www.seriouseats.com
www.luckyvitamin.com
www.landmarktheatres.com
www.nypl.org
27.6
20.5
20.0
18.1
14.7
14.0
12.9
12.6
12.1
11.8
11.6
11.5
11.4
10.8
10.6
10.6
10.4
9.9
9.8
9.7
WHO IS VISITING THE
WEBSITE ?
Recipe
Brand
Recipe
Health
Brand
Interest
Recipe
Charity
Local
Local
Brand
Podcast
Recipe
Print
Health
Local
Recipe
Health
Interest
Charity

4 unique subpopulations emerged from the algorithm. 3 were
manually filtered as they depicted non-US and industry visitor
behavior
X X X✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
FINDING SUBPOPULATIONS
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

MARKETING PROFESSIONALS
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Top Web Visits
www.brand-innovators.com
www.mindsparklemag.com
www.b2bmarketing.exchange
www.traackr.com
www.theadvertisingclub.org
www.ad-tech.com
www.bpando.org
www.packagingoftheworld.com
www.oneclub.org
www.martechconf.com
www.advertisingweek.com
www.cew.org
www.newscred.com
www.rebrand.com
www.ruderfinn.com
www.demandgenreport.com
www.mmaglobal.com
www.thingindustries.com
www.skyword.com
www.incite-group.com
www.dandadimpact.com
831.7
823.5
613.5
599.6
581.3
565.5
536.6
523.4
520.6
512.5
458.4
457.3
454.1
450.4
448.0
447.1
441.9
439.8
435.0
429.0
420.6

The Health Nut
Subpopulation 2
18.8%
The Trendsetter
Subpopulation 5
23.1%
The Curator
Subpopulation 6
17.6%
The Maker
Subpopulation 7
15.6%
image
image image
WHY DO PEOPLE BUY MY PRODUCTS?
4 RELEVANT SUB-POPULATIONS
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

Top Web Visits
www.veralistcenter.org
www.twentieth.net
www.india-mahdavi.com
www.cityreliquary.org
www.storefrontnews.org
www.trnk-nyc.com
www.albertine.com
www.mociun.com
www.pizzamoto.com
www.cheimread.com
www.roughtradenyc.com
www.thearrivals.com
www.eastwindsnackshop.com
www.showroomsoftware.com
www.littlefieldnyc.com
www.cherryandmartin.com
www.zeromariacornejo.com
www.stevenalan.com
www.electricfeathers.com
www.thedreslyn.com
1417.0
1162.6
1084.4
961.5
954.9
931.2
712.0
711.9
705.6
694.1
677.4
664.2
659.1
642.0
636.7
629.5
624.3
621.8
605.1
593.7
Index ScoreDomains
Art and Politics
Furniture and Lighting
Paris Architect/Designer
NYC Museum
Art and Architecture
Upscale Homegoods
Reading Room
Jewelry and Home Goods
NYC Pizza Truck
Art Gallery
NYC Venue
Fashion
NYC Dumpling Counter
Designers and Architects
NYC Venue
LA Art Gallery
Fashion
Fashion
Fashion
Fashion and Home Décor
Category
53

Top Web Visits
www.loupcharmant.com
www.maraisusa.com
www.apieceapart.com
www.capbeauty.com
www.saladforpresident.com
www.3-chairs.com
www.kickpleat.com
www.matteau-swim.com
www.bonadrag.com
www.tammyfender.com
www.thebrooklynkitchen.com
www.journelle.com
www.jinsoon.com
www.mynameisyeh.com
www.theundone.com
www.cerihoover.com
www.shop-foglinen.com
www.thedreslyn.com
www.thingindustries.com
www.fortressofinca.com
1108.3
1017.5
937.1
910.2
878.1
791.5
751.9
742.6
737.2
671.4
669.8
637.4
635.8
622.3
619.1
610.7
583.0
573.1
560.1
512.6
Index ScoreDomains
Fashion
Fashion
Fashion
Skincare
Food/Style
Food
Fashion
Fashion
Fashion
Skincare
Food/Style
Fashion
Spa
Food/Style
Fashion
Fashion
Décor
Fashion
Décor
Fashion
Category

Vegan recipe blog
Nutrition blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Recipe blog
Vegan recipe blog
Top Web Visits
www.veganyackattack.com
www.thereallife-rd.com
www.sweetsimplevegan.com
www.fullofplants.com
www.elephantasticvegan.com
www.yourveganmom.com
www.kaleandcaramel.com
www.vegannie.com
www.veggiesdontbite.com
www.thecolorfulkitchen.com
www.greenevi.com
www.plantpoweredkitchen.com
www.thevietvegan.com
www.katalysthealthblog.com
www.withfoodandlove.com
www.keepinitkind.com
www.tworaspberries.com
www.tworaspberries.com
www.sproutedkitchen.com
www.theveganversion.com
836.8
832.1
811.8
806.3
789.1
781.1
698.5
673.7
653.2
652.9
652.7
643.7
633.1
632.4
626.2
617.2
610.4
608.1
602.7
601.2
Index ScoreDomainsCategory

We drilled down further to find micro-
audiences within this subpopulation
Even Deeper
Drilling into Health Nuts
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

Micro-Audience A (4.9%)
www.hilaryseatwell.com
www.eatrightstore.org
www.oregonswildharvest.com
www.kite-hill.com
www.ift.org
www.alaffia.com
www.chosenfoods.com
www.veganstore.com
www.eatrightpro.org
www.chefswarehouse.com
www.vansfoods.com
www.inmybowl.com
www.symrise.com
www.mineralfusion.com
www.followyourheart.com
www.foodingredientsfirst.com
www.ancientharvest.com
www.gmaonline.org
www.lightlife.com
www.vrg.org
1008.6
793.8
753.5
685.6
656.7
652.8
590.1
564.9
524.6
522.4
517.4
448.6
408.9
401.2
397.5
392.8
391.6
390.4
383.9
369.1
Index ScoreDomains
Emphasis on nutrition and ingredients.
Includes resources for professional nutritionists and
other alternative food products.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

Micro-Audience B (6.3%)
www.elephantasticvegan.com
www.veggiesdontbite.com
www.cearaskitchen.com
www.veggieinspired.com
www.veganosity.com
www.theedgyveg.com
www.blissfulbasil.com
www.hotforfoodblog.com
www.wallflowerkitchen.com
www.rachlmansfield.com
www.lazycatkitchen.com
www.inmybowl.com
www.unconventionalbaker.com
www.edibleperspective.com
www.contentednesscooking.com
www.mydarlingvegan.com
www.yupitsvegan.com
www.emilieeats.com
1788.0
1494.0
1259.8
1194.5
1143.3
1120.7
1100.7
1096.9
1002.1
998.1
974.1
961.9
958.3
940.7
926.6
922.6
922.0
892.5
877.3
873.6
Index ScoreDomains
Dominated by vegan recipe blogs.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

Micro-Audience C (7.6%)
www.kaleandcaramel.com
www.3-chairs.com
www.sproutedkitchen.com
www.spiritbeautylounge.com
www.rachlmansfield.com
www.maraisusa.com
www.electricfeathers.com
www.thegreenlife.ca
www.blissfulbasil.com
www.theppk.com
www.hotforfoodblog.com
www.thefirstmess.com
www.momfilter.com
www.capbeauty.com
www.loomstate.org
www.kite-hill.com
www.nutritionstripped.com
www.veganbeautyreview.com
944.5
718.6
692.4
689.1
590.0
589.3
546.2
500.6
486.6
455.5
436.2
436.1
424.5
423.1
418.4
415.9
410.5
392.1
388.7
387.8
Index ScoreDomains
Focus on food as wholesome, green, organic, and
beautiful.
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

4 unique subpopulations emerged from the algorithm. 3 were
manually filtered as they depicted non-US and industry visitor
behavior
X X X✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
DO SUBPOPULATIONS MATTER?
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
Message Testing and Alignment

61
CASE :
CHOBANI
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

62
Linking store purchase to digital activity
Loyalty Cards
Linking Store Purchase to Digital ActivityCONNECTING DIGITAL ADS TO PURCHASE

How do images impact people who visit fast food?
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
Chipotle Mcdonalds Subway Chick-fil-a Wendys Dominos Quiznos Arbys
family human lifestyle logo packopen packsfamily individual lifestyle logo variety product

How do images impact people in food segments?
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
Produce-44079 Beverages >
Coffee, Tea &
Cocoa-104052
Meat & Seafood-
49528
Beverages-104049 Sauces, Spices &
Seasonings-44089
Snacks, Cookies &
Candy-44106
Frozen Foods-
104081
family human lifestyle logo packopen packs

@claudia_perlich
@dstillery
QUESTIONS?
Contact:
@claudia_perlich
@dstillery

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