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Presentation Wind Energy 2016
1. ”WOULD YOU RECOMMEND AN INVESTMENT IN THE
GERMAN ONSHORE-WIND-ENERGY INDUSTRY?“
Speakers' Corner WindEnergy Hamburg, September 27, 2016, 11:45 - 11:55 h
Elin Lüdemann (RSM), Domenico Blyth (CVM)
RSM-CVM-WIND-ENERGY STUDY
2. Contents
1. Introduction: Presentation of the speakers and their companies
2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
3. Concl.: ”Would you recommend an investment in the German onshore-wind-energy industry?“
2
3. 1. Introduction: Presentation of the speakers and their companies
3
Dipl.-Kfm., M.Sc., Domenico Blyth is a Project Manager at CVM since 2009. Mr. Blyth
graduated with a diploma in “European Business Studies“ at the University of Aachen. In addition,
he studied at the University of Florence, Italy. He graduated with a masters degree at the
University “Mid Sweden“ in Östersund, Sweden. From 2007 to 2009 Mr. Blyth worked in the plant
engineering and construction business. His present work consists of the supervision of M&A-
projects and of consultancy of insolvent clients of small and medium-sized enterprises (branches:
renewable energies, machinery and plant engineering, metal working, trade, automotive and
services). Contact details: blyth@cvm-gmbh.de, tel.: 0049-231-841747-0
Dipl.-Kffr., StB, WP, Elin Lüdemann is a working at RSM in Hamburg since 2014. After
graduating with a diploma in business administration at the university of Hamburg in 2002 Mrs.
Lüdemann worked as a manager in the audit department of EY until 2013. In 2008 she passed
her exam as German tax advisor and in 2012 as German CPA. She is specialized in accounting
related consulting and a member of the RSM working committee “(Green) Energy“.
Contact details: elin.luedemann@rsmgermany.de, tel.: 0049-40-35006-215
4. 1. Introduction: Presentation of the speakers and their companies
4
CVM Capital Value Management GmbH is an independent M&A consulting firm based in Dortmund. Their business
focuses on accompanying and consulting mergers and acquisitions of medium-sized companies within the branches
“industry“ and “trade“. In addition, CVM is specialized in insolvent companies and enterprises during their financial
recovery phase. Since 2010 CVM successfully supported about 50 transactions. In 2016 new offices in Berlin and
Hamburg have been established. They are led by Kai Peppmeier and his colleague Andreas Knaup.
RSM is the 10th largest accounting firm in Germany. The network contains more than 1,000 employees at more than
23 locations in Germany and it is one of the largest professional service firm focused on the middle market. Therefore,
RSM Germany has a deep understanding of unique needs of middle-market companies. RSM Germany provides
dedicated resources and nationwide capabilities. As a member of RSM International – the 6th largest network of
independent accounting, tax and consulting firms – RSM in Germany cooperates with a global network of experts.
5. Contents
1. Introduction: Presentation of the speakers and their companies
2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Energy Study
3. Concl.: ”Would you recommend an investment in the German onshore-wind-energy industry?“
5
6. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
Structure of the study
6
A. Introduction
I. Status Quo – the German wind industry as of today
II. Structure und approach of the study
B. Market development – global, European and German wind-energy market
C. Chances and risks of the German wind-energy industry
I. Political factors
II. Economical factors
III. Social and environmental factors
IV. Technical factors
D. Results of the research of RSM and CVM
E. Conclusion
Persons in charge
7. C. I. Political factors: EEG 2017 core statements
7
• Name of the law has finally been changed to Renewable Energy Source Act 2017
(known as ”EEG 2017”), bill passed by German Bundesrat July 8, 2016
• In future, there will be tenders to promote the wind-energy on- and offshore, certain
photovoltaic and biomass plants
• There should be three tenders (in 2017 and from 2020 et seqq.) respectively four (in
2018 and 2019)
• Volume of tenders plant 2,800 MW (gross) for onshore-wind-energy-plants per year
from 2017 to 2019 and 2,900 MW (gross) from 2020 et seqq., the law includes
exceptions
• Concerning the reward system in accordance with EEG 2017: the so called
„Zuschlagswert“ at the location referred to is relevant in accordance with exhibit 2 para
4 EEG 2017 (so called „einstufiges Referenzertragsmodell“)
Please note the speech of our RSM colleagues, Jan Königshoven and Armin Kroniger, “EEG 2017 – the brave new
world of the promotion of renewable energies!?”, September 28, 2016, 14:45 – 14:55 h
2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
8. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (1/8)
8
We have polled:
14%
29%
14%
32%
11%
Wind Power Plant
Manufacturers
Planners of Wind Power
Plants
Wind Power Plant
Operators
Potential Investors, i.e.
banks
Other Participants
9. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (2/8)
9
39% of the interviewed companies foresee a
positive trend within the next one to five years
(the polling of the participants took place until
March 2016). By contrast 57% expect a
stagnation or even a downturn in business
within the mentioned period of time.
39%
25%
32%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Expansion Stagnation Recession not specified
10. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (3/8)
10
More than half of the participants (54%) deem
it is economically reasonable to extend their
own spectrum of services and add an own
technical operation management.
54%
14%
32%
Yes
No
not specified
11. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (4/8)
11
Generally speaking, 89% of the polled
companies evaluate all four income drivers as
„1= very significant “ to „3= neutral“ within the
calculation of existing wind-energy plants and
wind-energy plants being constructed.
9
12
12
17
10
7
8
7
6
6
5
1
3
3
3
3
0 10 20 30
Wind Power Plant-efficiency factor
Technical availability
Feed-in compensation
Wind quality
1 2 3 4 5 not specified
12. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (5/8)
12
When talking about the main cost drivers of
existing wind power plants the polled
companies assess the costs of acquisition
(54%) and leasing (36%) as “very significant“.
The costs of maintenance (53%), financing
(46%) and repair (46%) have been evaluated
as “significant “.
4%
7%
14%
18%
29%
36%
25%
54%
14%
7%
18%
46%
53%
29%
46%
25%
39%
43%
18%
11%
4%
11%
11%
6%
14%
14%
25%
7%
4%
7%
4%
7%
11%
4%
21%
18%
21%
18%
14%
20%
11%
11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Taxes
Insurance costs
Depreciation
Repair costs
Maintenance
Leasing costs
Financing costs
Acquisition costs
1 2 3 4 5 not specified
Operational costs
13. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (6/8)
13
Evaluating the cost drivers of wind-power
plants being constructed the polled companies
rate the costs of investment (54%), planning
(39%) and leasing (39%) as “very significant”.
7%
11%
18%
39%
39%
54%
15%
25%
29%
25%
29%
29%
50%
29%
25%
25%
18%
4%
7%
11%
11%
7%
7%
14%
17%
17%
11%
14%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Costs for Surveyors
Costs concerning Federal Immission Control Act
Development costs
Planning costs
Leasing costs
Investment costs
1 2 3 4 5 not specified
14. 2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
D. Selected take aways of the study (7/8)
14
Compared to the current level of interest in
Germany p.a. 6% as an internal rate of return
in an investment in the German onshore-wind-
energy market will be highly financially
rewarding.
21%
47%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
4 to 6% greater than 6% not specified
15. Contents
1. Introduction: Presentation of the speakers and their companies
2. Presentation of the RSM-CVM-Wind-Energy Study
3. Concl.: ”Would you recommend an investment in the German onshore-wind-energy industry?“
15
16. 3. Concl.: ”Would you recommend an investment in the German onshore wind-energy industry?“
D. Selected take aways of the study (8/8)
16
In summary the polled companies conclude
that the political factors respectively the
political circumstances in Germany are the
toughest challenges they will face in the near
future.
9
13
18
26
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Technical factors
Social and environmental factors
Economical factors
Political factors