Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC's presentation at the RAF Air Power Conference 2015

1. 1
Small, smart, many
versus
few and bespoke
Dr. T. X. Hammes
Institute for National Strategic Studies
National Defense University

2. America according to
the World
2
Even bigger
idiots

3. Subject of talk
Tasked to with what West will use
But drones are also the threat
 High end to super empowered small
groups and individuals
3

4. Emerging Threats
SLIDE 5
Air and sea defense
Cyber and space
SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs
few and exquisite
Can they defeat us by attacking bases,
ships, supplies, individual vehicles
Driven by technology convergence
4

5. 5

6. 6

7. 77
Situation today
Extremely rapid technological change
 Many related fields
 Materials science
 Energetics
 Robotics
 Artificial Intelligence
 3d Printing
Unprecedented?

8. 88
1914-1939
Metallurgy
Power systems –
 Steam turbines
 Internal combustion engines
Electronics - Radio/radar
Weaponry

9. 99
Post WWI Naval
SLIDE 10
USN focuses on battleships
 Dominant form of naval system
 Post-WWI commissioned 18, building 2
 Primary interwar investment of USN
Commercial development in aircraft
 Rapid advancement in capabilities
 Minimal USN investment – 5 CVs, 3
converted ships
Little on submarines

10. 1914 - 1939
10

11. Changing today
Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12
Drones – range, payload, materials -13
Artificial intelligence –
3D Printing -
SLIDE 12
11

12. Nano-energetics
12
SLIDE 7

13. 13
For sale
today

14. AI/Autonomous Drones
1414

15. AI - Autonomy
What think of – what is
RANGE – Transatlantic 1998 composite
PAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of #
COST - $300 to billion
DIY projects
 Find red objects--Follow a person’s face
Amazon project
 20 lbs, 100 miles
 Non-GPS
Swiss post office 15

16. 3D: Capability + Volume
16
113 materials –
100 times faster - SLIDE

17. IED that hunts you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature
=player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s
17

18. Forest Racing –
Star Wars is here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL
0t5kPf6E
Forest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15
18

19. 19
--Ukranian drones support militia
--Funded by mothers
--Flown by volunteers

20. 3D Printed, Autonomous
Drone
00 – 0:30
20

21. Slocum Glider
2121

22. Implications
Power projection using conventional
platforms becomes much more difficult
 Does tactical defense gain an edge?
 APOE/APODs vulnerable?
 Major bases vulnerable?
Unconventional attackers only “bring the
detonator?”
National mobilization of industry?
22

23. Everyone has them –
and they are evolving
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM
R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45
23

24. Airpower’s role
Hold high ground
Defend the homeland
Provide strike
 Support joint/combined force
 Manage unsolvable problems
24

25. 2525
Contact Information
txhammes1@gmail.com

26. Backup slides
Additional videos of drones
26

27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo
7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor
2:00 to
27

28. http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military-
grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/
1:45
$2500, off the shelf
40 minutes, autonomous (android
phone)
1.5 lbs
New printing 25 times faster.
28

29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM
R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost
approaches zero
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL
0t5kPf6E
Forest racing drones 2:45 to 3:15
29

30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSY
QyAljYOY
Autonomous drone with LIDAR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU
pmPUcnuBY&feature=youtu.be&autopl
ay=1
Drone with immersion goggles
30