Briefing Paper (Final Copy)

Monday, May 4, 2015
Rachel Betzner
RIAP 213-01
INDIA BRIEFING PAPER

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India’s Nuclear History
India is a country rich with nuclear weapons history. With a nuclear program dating back
over six decades, India strongly believes in maintaining its nuclear program for both defense and
peaceful purposes. India’s nuclear research started in 1947 before gaining independence from
Great Britain. Indian scientists persuaded Indian political leaders to invest in nuclear research.
After India gained independence in 1947, the country’s nuclear program took off. The program
looked into the development of self-sufficient energy capabilities and also boosting India’s
prestige in the world through nuclear power. India wanted to produce inexpensive energy
through the nuclear program, but India also pursued completing the full nuclear fuel cycle, a
necessary component for creating nuclear weapons.
Subsequently, debates ensued between Indian politicians and scientists on developing a
nuclear weapon. Scientists wanted to develop a weapon for two reasons. The scientists wanted to
prove they could, and they also wanted to create a better defence system again China and
Pakistan. Politicians opposed nuclear weapons research due to its immorality and economic costs
to the state. However, Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri authorized Indian nuclear scientists to
pursue nuclear weapons testing in the 1960’s.
After the many years of research, India first demonstrated the capacity to create a nuclear
weapon in 1974. The country aimed its weapons at China and Pakistan.1 India argued the initial
test as both a development for better security against China and Pakistan and also as a display of
accomplishment for creating a nuclear weapon. The rest of the world did not respond positively
to these tests. The United States placed a number of sanctions on India, and the tests led to
1 Tellis,A. (2015). China,India,And Pakistan—GrowingNuclear CapabilitiesWith No End in Sight. Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/02/25/china-india-and-
pakistan-growing-nuclear-capabilities-with-no-end-in-sight/i2xz

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creation of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). However, the county did not perform a follow-
up test. Yet, India never signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in 1976 and broke this
treaty twice.2 Growing threats from China’s increase in nuclear weapons capabilities in the
1980’s fueled India’s race to develop a nuclear weapons arsenal. In 1998, India increased its
nuclear tests and officially declared itself a nuclear weapons state.3
Today, nuclear experts believe India possesses around 100 nuclear weapons, but this
figure is still highly uncertain. Scientists believe that India produces 5-6 nuclear weapons
annually, and scientists project India will have around 200 nuclear weapons by 2025. However,
there is no evidence of India starting a
massive build-up of its nuclear weapons
arsenal. Additionally, the country likely
produced around 600 kilograms of
weapons grade plutonium for the weapons
buildup in the 1980’s. India is capable of
producing much more weapons grade
plutonium as well, but again, there is no
evidence of a build-up.4
2 The Nuclear Threat initiative. India: Nuclear. (2015, January).Retreived from http://www.nti.org/country-
profiles/india/nuclear/
Endowment for International Peace.Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/02/25/china-india-and-
Source: http://www.indiadefence.com/nuclear_debate.htm

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India’s weapon launching capabilities comprise of solid-fueled ballistic missiles with an
intermediate range and the recent addition of 4 ballistic missile submarines. The country’s
nuclear program is still largely aims at deterring China and Pakistan from using nuclear weapons
against India. Conversely, India has a formal no first use policy, and India gives no indications
that this policy will change. The only way this policy will change is if China or Pakistan
increases hostility towards India or gives indication of using nuclear weapons against India. At
that point, the Indian government will reevaluate the policy and take action accordingly.5
However, researchers warn that India and Pakistan are in an arms race for nuclear
weapons in the Indian Ocean. India has already launched nuclear-powered ballistic missiles
submarines while Pakistan developed a Naval Strategic Force Command Headquarters with the
intention of creating a sea-based weapons deterrent. To counter these attacks, some nuclear
weapons states, such as China and the United States developed a nuclear triad to create second-
strike capabilities.6
The Government of India’s Nuclear Energy Regulator
The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) is responsible for evaluating India’s
nuclear policies. The president of India created the board on November 15, 1983 through the
power of the Atomic Energy Act. The president tasked this board to carry out certain regulatory
and safety functions for India’s nuclear research. The board derives its power from the Atomic
Energy Act and the Environment Protection Act, and its mission is “to ensure that the use of
6 Brewster, D. (2015). Real Clear World. Forget Iran. The Real Nuclear Threat Lies East. Retrieved from
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2015/04/02/forget_iran_the_real_nuclear_threat_lies_east_111088.html

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ionizing radiation and nuclear energy in India does not cause undue risk to the health of people
and the environment in India.”7
The AERB has several advisory committees dealing with nuclear safety, radiological
safety, industrial and fire safety, and occupational health. The committees include The Advisory
Committee on Nuclear Safety (ACNS) and The Advisory Committee for preparation of Code &
Guides on Governmental Organization for the Regulation of Nuclear & Radiation facilities
(ACCGORN). The ACNS advises the AERB on generic issues affecting the safety of nuclear
intuitions including: siting, design, construction, commissioning, operating and decommissioning
nuclear fiacilities. The ACNS also reviews and gives recommendations on the AERB draft for
safety codes and guides and manuals before presentation to the chairman.8
The ACCGORN, prepares the Code & associated Guides for establishing requirements
for regulating Nuclear Facilities under construction & operation. Under the committee’s terms of
reference, the committee recommends establishment of the roles and responsibility of the
regulatory board. Additionally, ACCGORN establishes regulations for health, safety, and
environmental protection along with taking necessary enforcement actions to ensure employees
do not violate limits and conditions at active and inactive nuclear plants.9
India’s Stance on the Iranian Nuclear Program
Today, the Iranian nuclear program is acting much like the Indian nuclear program’s
beginnings. Located just across the Arabian Sea from Iran, India frequently trades with Iran.
7 Government of India.Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. (2015, April).Retrieved from
http://www.aerb.gov.in/AERBPortal/pages/commonTemplate/index.jsp
8 Government of India. Advisory Committee on Nuclear Safety. (2013,July). Retrieved from
http://www.aerb.gov.in/AERBPortal/pages/English/committees/ACNS_jsp.action
9 Government of India. Advisory Committee for preparation of Code & Guides on Governmental Organization for
the Regulation of Nuclear & Radiation facilities (ACCGORN). (2013, May). Retrieved from
http://www.aerb.gov.in/AERBPortal/pages/English/committees/ACCGORN_jsp.action

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However, the economic sanctions by the United Nations on Iran has hurt the India economy and
its supply of natural resources. Therefore, India welcomes any resolution allowing a resume of
trade with Iran. As for India’s stance on Iran’s nuclear program, India welcomes a diplomatic
agreement between Iran and the United Nations to resume trade with Iran This agreement will
help increase the Indian economy, reduce the nuclear weapons threat in the Middle East, increase
regional stability in the Middle East, and allow India utilize Iran as a gateway to surrounding
areas and resources. India wants Iran and the UN to reach an agreement through diplomacy and
dialogue, not fighting and war. As a result, India supports any positive discussions between Iran
and the United Nations to come to an agreement.
In recent weeks, US officials released a draft agreement between Iran and the P5+1
group, U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany, of the terms Iran would commit to.
These terms include agreement to reduce the number of centrifuges by two thirds, bringing down
uranium stocks from 10,000 kg to 300 kg of low-enriched uranium, and allowing all excess
nuclear parts to remain at an International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA)-monitored location for 15
years. In return, the UN will lift all economic
sanctions against Iran.
Of the entire agreement, India remains
skeptical of Iran’s willingness to allow its excess
nuclear parts remain at an IAEA location. However,
if Iran agrees to this deal, India will benefit greatly
economically. Annually, India and Iran trade
about $14 billion USD, and India owes Iran
Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe-
columnist/creative-transactions-key-to-indo-iran-trade/49650/

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around $8.8 billion USD for oil. However, India cannot payback that debt without the UN lifting
the economic sanctions against Iran. Additionally, India also had to cut back borrowing oil from
Iran. Eventually, India stopped buying oil from Iran in March 2015 after the US put pressure on
India to cut back and ultimately stop trade.10
The nuclear weapons issues with Iran is parallels the nuclear events between India and
Pakistan. Both countries developed their nuclear weapons arsenal largely out of security
concerns. While the diplomatic talks are ideal, surrounding countries are still preparing for a
nuclear war if completely necessary.11 The United States and Israel are examples of countries
who will likely carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. These strikes would likely lead to
increased tensions in the region and to other nuclear weapons states arming themselves for
attacks. India, being a large economic partner with Iran, is very concerned with strikes against
Iran, and they are well-positioned to help with the negotiations between Iran and the UN.12
Along with regional concerns of a growing nuclear threat, India also can suffer from
regional instability if Iran does not reach a deal with the UN. Countries in the Middle East do not
think peace can happen in the region without all of the countries in the region agreeing, whether
that is through formal documentation or an informal understanding, to stop all non-peaceful acts.
If Iran reaches a deal with the UN, economists suggest Iran could be a place of massive
opportunity for the educated population in the Middle East. India especially could benefit from
10 Haidar,S. (2015). India hailsIran nuclear agreement. The Hindu. Retrieved from
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-welcomes-agreement-over-irans-nuclear-
programme/article7064169.ece
11 Siegel, R & O’Donnell,F. (2015,March 30). Iran Talks Shed Light On Nuclear Tensions Between India,Pakistan.
National Public Radio. PodcastRetrieved from http://www.npr.org/2015/03/30/396405005/iran-talks-shed-light-
on-nuclear-tensions-between-india-pakistan
12 Maloney, S. (2014). U.S. Policy toward Iran and the Implicationsfor India.Brookings.Retrieved from
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/09/23-us-policy-iran-implications-india-maloney

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international companies basing headquarters in Dubai to have easy access to Iran.13 Most
importantly, with these growing tensions between Iran and the US, those governments will never
trust each other. India in turn will suffer when trying to appease both the Iranians and the
Americans who are both major trading partners.14
Iran is also at a major junction for India’s access to South and West Asia. Due to India’s
indifferent and sometimes hostile relations with China and Pakistan, Iran provides the only
access for India to Afghanistan and Central Asia for India to sell goods. Also, India’s only option
to gain the untapped energy and mineral resources in the region is through Iran. Before the UN
sanctions and US pressure, Iran was India’s second largest oil import source, about 17%. For
India, Iran is one of the closest and cheapest energy sources to fuel India’s growing population.
One of the biggest hits to India’s energy needs in regards to the Iranian nuclear issues is
the holdup of the North South Transport Corridor and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.
Builders proposed that this pipeline would transport 36 billion cubic meters of gas every year to
the region with 70% going to India. With both the rising prices of gas and increased US pressure
on Iran, builders have yet started constructing the pipeline. Without adequate refining facilities,
India can only produce enough oil for 67% of the population.15
Conversely, researchers argue that this deal between the UN and Iran will allow Iran to
act as a link for terrorists to smuggle weapons. While researchers and politicians debate this
problem, if it were to happen, instability would affect the surrounding countries. India would end
up suffering more from the surrounding terrorist threat than from economic sanctions. Terrorist
13 Ellyatt,H. (2015). Iran deal:‘No happy ending’ for MiddleEast. CNBC. Retrieved from
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102548174
14 Sachs,J. (2015). The Casefor Peace with Iran.Project Syndicate. Retrieved from http://www.project-
syndicate.org/commentary/iran-nuclear-agreement-opponents-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2015-04
15 Bansal,A. (2014).US-Iran Relations and Their Impacton India. Scholar Warrior, 9-11. Retrieved from
http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc/78081265_AlokBansal.pdf

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groups with much more sophisticated weapons would cause much more instability in the region,
hurting India’s economy. Countries such as Russia and China could exploit this UN deal by
selling Iran these sophisticated weapons only for the weapons to fall into terrorists’ hands.16
While these discussions and talks continue between Iran and the United nations, India’s
economy is on the line. The coming weeks will determine the fate of the large and populous
country. While there could be potential problems with this deal between Iran and the UN, India
is mainly concerned with its economy and depleting natural resources. The Indian population
needs this deal so the country can resume purchasing oil from Iran. Without that oil and other
natural resources, India citizens’ quality of life will decrease. For now, all India is doing is
waiting for both sides to reach an agreement that will lift all economic sanctions on Iran.
16 Lappin,Y. (2015). Russia-Iran MissileDeal Major Threatto Middle East. Gatestone Institute. Retrieved from
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5564/iran-s300-missiles

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