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Natural selection and systems
 science work hand-in-hand
        Dr Rahman Khatibi

        Swindon Philosophy
         5 November 2009
Summary
1. The Law of Natural Selection
                                             – The first step of evolution
   –   very slow
   –   mutually exclusive entities, which are unique
   –   there is no foresight thus no survival without proliferation
   –   triggers positive feedback and gives rise to disorder (entropy)
2. Negativ reductive science e feedback (central to systems
   thinking)
                                         – The second step of evolution
   – rather fast
   – triggered within mutually inclusive entities interconnectivity
   – negative feedback gives rise to the emergence of “purpose”
3. Put them together
                                       – The full picture of evolution
   – Negative feedback has a selective advantage to reduce entropy
   – This is why they work hand-in-hand
1. Natural Selection
               Anything that has a selective
               advantage, stand the chance
                      to be selected

• More elegant than         E  mc 2
• An assumption that needs no assumption

• It is pluralistic and leads to, and requires, open-mindedness

• Eliminates the need for the play of an upper hand

• Most successful to explain diversification of species
1. What is “selective advantage”?
•   Put two things together, they may have an emergent property called
    selective advantage
•   There is no a priori “purpose”
•   It is simply a potential
•   Not outcome of a plan but it just happens
•   Its engines are: mutation and gene pools
    (the example of giraffe)
•   Richard Dawkins on the Universe:
     – ‘no design, no purpose,
     – no evil and no good...
     – nothing but blind pitiless indifference’
•   So is natural selection
•   Diversity leads to further diversity (positive F.)
1. What things can select?
• No selection in the pristine world but just:
   – physical and chemical actions and reactions
   – cause-and-effects
   – the production of complexities
• All the living things with a capacity to selection
                     Input                                     Output
             (but it has got to be right)   Any living thing


• Many types of selection
   – Sexual selection
   – Group selection, population selection, or racial selection
   – Trait selection in recruitment, commercial selection or breeding
• But Natural selection is like no other one or the selection
  without a foresight
1. Natural Selection, from inception to outcomes


• Natural selection takes place without a foresight
  and without a plan
• There is a selective advantage for proliferation
  for survival (known as there is safety in
  numbers)
• When all the mutually exclusive entities
  proliferate, they give rise to disorder (entropy)
1. Where can we find natural selection?

• A hierarchy of possibilities
  – In the natural world
  – In the society and organisations
  – In the world of technological products
  – In the world of ideas, constructs, scientific
    paradigms and systems
• But exactly where does natural
  selection operate?
1. Social Darwinism – “the survival of the fittest”
• Advocators: Herbert Spencer and others
• Acquired/inherited traits transmitted genetically!
   –   economic society was regarded as an arena
   –   men were competitors
   –   winners rewarded with survival, some with riches
   –   losers went to lions!
• Darwin was dead and no chance to express his views
• Dawkins says a “big no” to social Darwinism
• Who would say “yes” to such a madness?
   – mad ones but some,                               Social Darwinism is a
   – some ideologists,                            misnomer; experimented with
                                                  individual selection; nothing
   – some with badly muddled intellect             to do with natural selection;
• Where social Darwinism went wrong?              neglected negative feedback

• The risk for such misconstruing is there if we fail to
  understand the role of negative feedback
2. Negative Feedback Loops
• Negative feedback: decrease differences
  and thereby maintain a steady state
                                       Balls fly out
                                         as speed
                                        increases,



                                                                                Valve closes,
                                                                              slowing engine
                                                    Steam                     Flyball
                                                    engine                   governor




    Boulton-Watt steam engine -1788
                                      http://www.heeg.de/~roland/SteamEngine.html
2. History of Negative Feedback Loops (NFL)

• Patent Office for negative feedback:
   –   Patent holder: Mother Nature
   –   Address: the laboratory of Natural Selection
   –   Stakeholders: single cells
   –   Mechanism: a selective advantage of possible collaborations
       between single cells
• The outcome:
   –   Animal and plant kingdom
   –   100s and 1000s of sophisticated negative feedback loops
   –   Animal communities with communal negative feedback loops
   –   Emergence of man giving rise to technology and yet new NFL
   –   James Watt’s Flyball speed control governor- first NF mechanism
2. What is a Negative Feedback Mechanism

•    The Unit to be controlled
•    Transmitter
•    Controller
•    Actuator
                 Controller

                                                     Controller
                              Negative Wedge
                                 Prism Wedge
                                                                                          Actuator
                                    Positive Wedge




                                                                  Unit to be controlled




                                                                                                        Controller
                                                                                          Transmitter
2. Thousands of Examples




ESE
Reducing NFLs to their Building Blocks

 •   To establish a negative feedback loop:
         1.   We need sensors/measurements
         2.   We need “facts engine”
         3.   We need Actuators
 •   Put these 3 together, you get:
      – emergent properties of performance criteria, or goal, purpose
      – A capability to articulate the system
      – These are a priori, i.e. specified in advance
 •   Information/data has a pronounced role
 •   Flow of information has directions
2. Where do we find NFLs
•   In the animal and plant kingdoms
•   In the ecology of natural environments
•   In social environments including morality
•   In organisations including ethics
•   In legal systems
•   In technological products
•   In science
2. Where do we not find NFLs
•   Where the the rule of jungle applies
•   Man uses technology against other species
•   In Social Darwinism
•   In autocratic governance and dictatorships
•   In classic capitalism and Soviet socialism
•   In Judaic religions (except for fixed morality)
•   In philosophy? Let us examine it.
2. Utilitarianism
John Stuart Mill
                                                                    Jeremy Bentham

     • The tenets of utilitarianism:
           – Actions are to be judged right or wrong by their consequences,
             nothing else matters
           – The only measure of consequences is happiness or unhappiness
           – Each person’s happiness counts the same
     • This philosophy was highly influential
     • Completely ignored adverse impacts
     • Now we are unselecting a great deal of impacts due to
       utilitarian thinking
     • This philosophy gave rise to change but has nothing to
       say about evolutionary processes
2. Positivism
•   Comte’s positivism:
     – Complexity is made up of matter and mind
     – matter determinable and mind indeterminate
•   Matter is determinable through science
    categorised as:
     – Sub-atomic physics: the science of elements with
       intrinsic properties;
     – Chemistry: the science of compound elements
       with compounds having emergent chemical
       properties absent in the elementary physics;
     – Biology: outcomes of interacting compounds with
       the emergent property of reproduction;
     – Psychology: the science of biologically interacting
       individuals with the emergent property of gaining a
       consciousness of the environment;
     – Sociology: the science of interacting individuals
       with the emergent property of societies; and
     – Anthropology: the science of interacting societies
       with the emergent property of culture
•   No explicit indication of evolution, other than
    matter is determinable
2. Realism
• To a realist,
  – instead of matter or mind the emphasis is on
    observable and unobservable phenomena
  – both are regarded as real objects,
  – they exist independent of perception
  – they have properties and enter into relations
    independent of concepts
• No explicit indication of evolution
2. Existentialism
Søren Kierkegaard

     • Existentialistic doctrine:                                               Martin Heidegger

            – inner world determinable and outer world indeterminate
            – Only revered ones are revealed with an understanding of matter
            – Apparently they save the mankind from a nihilist prospect
            – The emphasis is on individuals, absence of a rational understanding of the
              universe and a dread of absurdity in human life
     • Nihilism: the outer world is in decline but revered individuals can
         unravel so much from the indeterminate inner world to save the
         mankind from a catastrophe
     • Hiedegger: nihilism is standing at the door and spreading out
     • I dare to say nihilism is a drive for change but quite sure they will refute
       me by saying I do not understand them
2. Hegelian-Marxian Dialectics

• Marx inverted and applied axiomatic Hegelian
  doctrine of dialectics:
    – interpenetration of the opposites (thesis and antithesis)
    – negation of the negation (antagonism)
    – transformation of quantity into quality (revolution)
•   The transformation through revolution is violent
•   This served as a model of change
•   A complete lack of a mechanism for regulation
•   Plenty of coercion
2. Thomas Kuhn’s Paradigm shifts
•   Kuhn’s doctrine of paradigms connects the
    Marxian dialectics with Kantian constructivism
•   Science is puzzle-solving with occasionally
    identified anomalies (interpenetration of the opposites)
•   Science needs a mechanism to maintain its
    integrity and its dynamics (negation of the negation)
•   Paradigm shifts: Kuhn did not condone
    coercion nor science entertains such a
    mechanism and therefore the transformation
    is not by violent means but by consensus
    (Kantian constructivism)
•   Paradigm shifts is the nearest thing for
    evolution in science
2. Negative Feedback in Philosophy

• My search (also Google) ended in vain
• Karl Popper (1969) states that
   – “It is part of my thesis that all our
     knowledge grows through the correcting of
     our mistakes. For example, what is called
     today ‘negative feed back’ is only an
     application of the general method of
     learning from our mistakes – the method of
     trial and error.”
• Popper is right but no philosopher seems to
  have taken feedback any deeper!
• Exception: the philosophy of systems science
2. Science: hinterland of Negative Feedback
• Selective advantage of negative
  feedback was first recognised in the
  Galilei’s thinking:
    Do not take things on trust alone. The only
    way to understand how something works is
       to subject it to experiment; you must
          experience it, see it for yourself.
                                                                Assumptions
        Input                              Output
                     A scientific System
                                                         Theorisation   Observations

• Attributes of NFLs in Reductive science:
   – Negative feedback is the key to scientific
     objectivity                                                Predictions
   – Negative feedback triggers the right to challenge
   – Negative feedback creates internal coherence
                                                           Decision for reviews
     within a system
2. Fact Engines for Negative Feedback Loops
                                          SENSING
                                                        hind wing
                                                       gyroscopes
                                          neural        (halteres)

• Brains have soft computing           superposition
                                           eyes

  capabilities using fuzzy logic
  as their decision engine                             specialized       two wings
                                                         “power”          (di-ptera)
                                                        muscles


• Diversity of manmade fuzzy                                     ACTUATION

  logic fact engines                                     COMPUTATION
                                                          ~500,000 neurons



• Others use sophisticated
  mathematical models

 But now we are discovering the dimension of
uncertainty. i.e. all decisions after NFLs are still
   some sort of trial-and-error, just like the
machinery of natural selection but much faster!
2-3 What happened to Reductive Science?

• “Utilitarian philosophers” unwittingly
  hijacked reductive science and gave rise:

                        Population rise
                         Mounting wastes and pollution,
                            Greenhouse gases
                              The Ozone layer
                                  Climate change



•   Systems science is the birthplace of explicit concept of
    negative feedback
•   It rescued science by making the way to sustainable
    development
•   Ludwig von Bertallanffy’s General Theory of Systems
    (GST) was a great help but failed to fulfilled its
    promises, why?
The Transition Milestones
  “Laplace's Demon”: the past completely determines the
future no chance, no choice, and no uncertainty — has been
                  traced back to Socrates
                                                                    Pierre Simon Laplace

 Max Planck: “the principles of conservation of energy does
 not suffice for a unique determination of natural processes.”
   The 2nd law of thermodynamics describes the processes
  from the initial to final states by referring to dissipated and
            unrecoverable internal energy (entropy).
                                                                       Max Planck (1858-47)


     Heisenberg: In the atomic scale, it is impossible to
determine simultaneously both the position and velocity of an
                         electron

     Current modelling paradigm has also discovered                 Werner Heisenberg (1901-1976)
  uncertainty at our normal scale and encourages decision-
             making in an uncertain background
3. An Emerging philosophy for NFL?
•   Bertallanffy’s General Systems Theory (GTS) –1941
•   Promoted GTS with the aims of:
     –   Transferring knowledge by investigating isomorphy of concepts
     –   Developing adequate theoretical models
     –   Eliminating duplications in different fields
     –   Promoting the unity of science                                  Ludwig von Bertallanffy (1901-72)

•   He articulated the role of entropy and information:
     – closed systems: tend to move toward random state or
       increasing disorder
     – open systems: open internally in relation to themselves and
       externally in relation to the environment
     – social systems: other possibilities …
•   Schrödinger: living organisms feed on negative entropy,
    i.e. information
                                                                                         Schrödinger



Checkland: (1) GST pays for generality with lack of content,
              (2) Doubts if information = negative entropy
But he is a leading figure in systems thinking
3. Let us let the stock of the knowledge available:

• The law of natural selection is an undisputed
  explanation for mutually exclusive entities
• Its application to society was disastrous due to
  ignoring existing negative feedback loops
• A great deal is understood on the operation of
  negative feedback in mutually inclusive entities
• But the current knowledge is not putting the
  emergence of NFLs in the timeline after the Law
  of Natural Selection
• Is there a timeline for both?
3. Overview of the Evolutionary Timeline

• The evolution led to the emergence of man 100,000-
  140,000 years ago
• Man’s facts engine perceived the selective of a diversity
  new techniques: association, reason, observation, cooperation, telling a lie,
    coercion, deception
•  Association, reason and observation stand out for
  helping form the cognitive faculty
• The selective advantage of negative feedback emerged
  in 1500 through reductive science and diversifying since
  then but this gave rise to entropy
• The selective advantage of reducing the entropy
  produced by reductive science is being dealt with by
  systems science since 1940 AND NOW with the
  foresight of sustainable development
Detailed Timeline
• Complexities: organised hierarchically
• Lower Hierarchies: evolve:-
      –   Closed systems: Lifeless complexities emerged through cause-and-effect interactions by
          chance
      –   Life emerged by interacting complexities with the emergent properties of reproduction
      –   Cultures of primitive living things reproduced as long as their inputs were sufficient, true to
          the statement in the Matrix film
      –   Gene pool and mutation: two mechanisms are there and are engine of variations
      –   Cooperation: There was a selective advantage for cooperation among primitive living cells
• Higher Hierarchies: cooperating primitive living cells evolved
      –   Open Systems: There was a selective advantage for specialisation of the cells through a
          centralised control system of cells, where the control was through negative feedback
          mechanisms
      –   There was a selective advantage for the emergence of negative feedback to respond to the
          environment by exploiting information
      –   Individuality and communality: There was a selective advantage for both self-interests
          and communal life and both emerged and evolved in a variety of forms
• Diversification and punctuated events made up history until the arrival of the mankind
• A few evolutionary changes in the biology of the mankind gave rise to language and
  technology
• Man was not much different from other species until, say, 10000 years ago
• Since then settled way of life had a profound effect on the evolution of cultural life
• Since then, the selective advantage of association, reason, observation, cooperation,
  telling a lie, coercion, deception … has emerged among the mankind
• The selective advantage of morality prevailed in social life, in the form negative
  feedback against very obvious harmful eefects of killing, steeling, telling a lie …
• Science was born in the form of negative feedback and data in reasoning by Galilei
3. The Evolution in Science
No Science yet                                                            Society
                     Input                                     Output
                                       Open Loop
                                                        e.g. Philosophy driven by reason
                                                             Religion driven by faith



Reductive Science     Input                                    Output      Society
                                 Internally Closed Loop
                                  Externally Open Loop


 Systems Science                                                        Society
                     Input                                  Output
                               Internally Closed Loop
                                Externally Open Loop



                   Input                                  Output
   Science                    Multi-loop Architecture
4. Where are we now?
•   NFL is not a panacea but can lead to stagnation, e.g. religions and
    Nietsche’s attack on Christianity
•   Speed of propagation increases from the slow scale of natural
    selection to the fast scale of avian/swine flu
•   When many systems converge, risks transform from extensive to
    extensive-and-intensive scales – the emergence of systemic risk
•   Interactions of two systems can be regular but subject to some
    uncertainties, whereas interactions of many systems can be subject
    to chaos and catastrophic changes
•   Should we not slow the pace of our so called progress?
•   Are we driven by NFLs or by natural selection or by social
    Darwinists?

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Rahman khatibi presentation_swindon

  • 1. Natural selection and systems science work hand-in-hand Dr Rahman Khatibi Swindon Philosophy 5 November 2009
  • 2. Summary 1. The Law of Natural Selection – The first step of evolution – very slow – mutually exclusive entities, which are unique – there is no foresight thus no survival without proliferation – triggers positive feedback and gives rise to disorder (entropy) 2. Negativ reductive science e feedback (central to systems thinking) – The second step of evolution – rather fast – triggered within mutually inclusive entities interconnectivity – negative feedback gives rise to the emergence of “purpose” 3. Put them together – The full picture of evolution – Negative feedback has a selective advantage to reduce entropy – This is why they work hand-in-hand
  • 3. 1. Natural Selection Anything that has a selective advantage, stand the chance to be selected • More elegant than E  mc 2 • An assumption that needs no assumption • It is pluralistic and leads to, and requires, open-mindedness • Eliminates the need for the play of an upper hand • Most successful to explain diversification of species
  • 4. 1. What is “selective advantage”? • Put two things together, they may have an emergent property called selective advantage • There is no a priori “purpose” • It is simply a potential • Not outcome of a plan but it just happens • Its engines are: mutation and gene pools (the example of giraffe) • Richard Dawkins on the Universe: – ‘no design, no purpose, – no evil and no good... – nothing but blind pitiless indifference’ • So is natural selection • Diversity leads to further diversity (positive F.)
  • 5. 1. What things can select? • No selection in the pristine world but just: – physical and chemical actions and reactions – cause-and-effects – the production of complexities • All the living things with a capacity to selection Input Output (but it has got to be right) Any living thing • Many types of selection – Sexual selection – Group selection, population selection, or racial selection – Trait selection in recruitment, commercial selection or breeding • But Natural selection is like no other one or the selection without a foresight
  • 6. 1. Natural Selection, from inception to outcomes • Natural selection takes place without a foresight and without a plan • There is a selective advantage for proliferation for survival (known as there is safety in numbers) • When all the mutually exclusive entities proliferate, they give rise to disorder (entropy)
  • 7. 1. Where can we find natural selection? • A hierarchy of possibilities – In the natural world – In the society and organisations – In the world of technological products – In the world of ideas, constructs, scientific paradigms and systems • But exactly where does natural selection operate?
  • 8. 1. Social Darwinism – “the survival of the fittest” • Advocators: Herbert Spencer and others • Acquired/inherited traits transmitted genetically! – economic society was regarded as an arena – men were competitors – winners rewarded with survival, some with riches – losers went to lions! • Darwin was dead and no chance to express his views • Dawkins says a “big no” to social Darwinism • Who would say “yes” to such a madness? – mad ones but some, Social Darwinism is a – some ideologists, misnomer; experimented with individual selection; nothing – some with badly muddled intellect to do with natural selection; • Where social Darwinism went wrong? neglected negative feedback • The risk for such misconstruing is there if we fail to understand the role of negative feedback
  • 9. 2. Negative Feedback Loops • Negative feedback: decrease differences and thereby maintain a steady state Balls fly out as speed increases, Valve closes, slowing engine Steam Flyball engine governor Boulton-Watt steam engine -1788 http://www.heeg.de/~roland/SteamEngine.html
  • 10. 2. History of Negative Feedback Loops (NFL) • Patent Office for negative feedback: – Patent holder: Mother Nature – Address: the laboratory of Natural Selection – Stakeholders: single cells – Mechanism: a selective advantage of possible collaborations between single cells • The outcome: – Animal and plant kingdom – 100s and 1000s of sophisticated negative feedback loops – Animal communities with communal negative feedback loops – Emergence of man giving rise to technology and yet new NFL – James Watt’s Flyball speed control governor- first NF mechanism
  • 11. 2. What is a Negative Feedback Mechanism • The Unit to be controlled • Transmitter • Controller • Actuator Controller Controller Negative Wedge Prism Wedge Actuator Positive Wedge Unit to be controlled Controller Transmitter
  • 12. 2. Thousands of Examples ESE
  • 13. Reducing NFLs to their Building Blocks • To establish a negative feedback loop: 1. We need sensors/measurements 2. We need “facts engine” 3. We need Actuators • Put these 3 together, you get: – emergent properties of performance criteria, or goal, purpose – A capability to articulate the system – These are a priori, i.e. specified in advance • Information/data has a pronounced role • Flow of information has directions
  • 14. 2. Where do we find NFLs • In the animal and plant kingdoms • In the ecology of natural environments • In social environments including morality • In organisations including ethics • In legal systems • In technological products • In science
  • 15. 2. Where do we not find NFLs • Where the the rule of jungle applies • Man uses technology against other species • In Social Darwinism • In autocratic governance and dictatorships • In classic capitalism and Soviet socialism • In Judaic religions (except for fixed morality) • In philosophy? Let us examine it.
  • 16. 2. Utilitarianism John Stuart Mill Jeremy Bentham • The tenets of utilitarianism: – Actions are to be judged right or wrong by their consequences, nothing else matters – The only measure of consequences is happiness or unhappiness – Each person’s happiness counts the same • This philosophy was highly influential • Completely ignored adverse impacts • Now we are unselecting a great deal of impacts due to utilitarian thinking • This philosophy gave rise to change but has nothing to say about evolutionary processes
  • 17. 2. Positivism • Comte’s positivism: – Complexity is made up of matter and mind – matter determinable and mind indeterminate • Matter is determinable through science categorised as: – Sub-atomic physics: the science of elements with intrinsic properties; – Chemistry: the science of compound elements with compounds having emergent chemical properties absent in the elementary physics; – Biology: outcomes of interacting compounds with the emergent property of reproduction; – Psychology: the science of biologically interacting individuals with the emergent property of gaining a consciousness of the environment; – Sociology: the science of interacting individuals with the emergent property of societies; and – Anthropology: the science of interacting societies with the emergent property of culture • No explicit indication of evolution, other than matter is determinable
  • 18. 2. Realism • To a realist, – instead of matter or mind the emphasis is on observable and unobservable phenomena – both are regarded as real objects, – they exist independent of perception – they have properties and enter into relations independent of concepts • No explicit indication of evolution
  • 19. 2. Existentialism Søren Kierkegaard • Existentialistic doctrine: Martin Heidegger – inner world determinable and outer world indeterminate – Only revered ones are revealed with an understanding of matter – Apparently they save the mankind from a nihilist prospect – The emphasis is on individuals, absence of a rational understanding of the universe and a dread of absurdity in human life • Nihilism: the outer world is in decline but revered individuals can unravel so much from the indeterminate inner world to save the mankind from a catastrophe • Hiedegger: nihilism is standing at the door and spreading out • I dare to say nihilism is a drive for change but quite sure they will refute me by saying I do not understand them
  • 20. 2. Hegelian-Marxian Dialectics • Marx inverted and applied axiomatic Hegelian doctrine of dialectics: – interpenetration of the opposites (thesis and antithesis) – negation of the negation (antagonism) – transformation of quantity into quality (revolution) • The transformation through revolution is violent • This served as a model of change • A complete lack of a mechanism for regulation • Plenty of coercion
  • 21. 2. Thomas Kuhn’s Paradigm shifts • Kuhn’s doctrine of paradigms connects the Marxian dialectics with Kantian constructivism • Science is puzzle-solving with occasionally identified anomalies (interpenetration of the opposites) • Science needs a mechanism to maintain its integrity and its dynamics (negation of the negation) • Paradigm shifts: Kuhn did not condone coercion nor science entertains such a mechanism and therefore the transformation is not by violent means but by consensus (Kantian constructivism) • Paradigm shifts is the nearest thing for evolution in science
  • 22. 2. Negative Feedback in Philosophy • My search (also Google) ended in vain • Karl Popper (1969) states that – “It is part of my thesis that all our knowledge grows through the correcting of our mistakes. For example, what is called today ‘negative feed back’ is only an application of the general method of learning from our mistakes – the method of trial and error.” • Popper is right but no philosopher seems to have taken feedback any deeper! • Exception: the philosophy of systems science
  • 23. 2. Science: hinterland of Negative Feedback • Selective advantage of negative feedback was first recognised in the Galilei’s thinking: Do not take things on trust alone. The only way to understand how something works is to subject it to experiment; you must experience it, see it for yourself. Assumptions Input Output A scientific System Theorisation Observations • Attributes of NFLs in Reductive science: – Negative feedback is the key to scientific objectivity Predictions – Negative feedback triggers the right to challenge – Negative feedback creates internal coherence Decision for reviews within a system
  • 24. 2. Fact Engines for Negative Feedback Loops SENSING hind wing gyroscopes neural (halteres) • Brains have soft computing superposition eyes capabilities using fuzzy logic as their decision engine specialized two wings “power” (di-ptera) muscles • Diversity of manmade fuzzy ACTUATION logic fact engines COMPUTATION ~500,000 neurons • Others use sophisticated mathematical models But now we are discovering the dimension of uncertainty. i.e. all decisions after NFLs are still some sort of trial-and-error, just like the machinery of natural selection but much faster!
  • 25. 2-3 What happened to Reductive Science? • “Utilitarian philosophers” unwittingly hijacked reductive science and gave rise: Population rise Mounting wastes and pollution, Greenhouse gases The Ozone layer Climate change • Systems science is the birthplace of explicit concept of negative feedback • It rescued science by making the way to sustainable development • Ludwig von Bertallanffy’s General Theory of Systems (GST) was a great help but failed to fulfilled its promises, why?
  • 26. The Transition Milestones “Laplace's Demon”: the past completely determines the future no chance, no choice, and no uncertainty — has been traced back to Socrates Pierre Simon Laplace Max Planck: “the principles of conservation of energy does not suffice for a unique determination of natural processes.” The 2nd law of thermodynamics describes the processes from the initial to final states by referring to dissipated and unrecoverable internal energy (entropy). Max Planck (1858-47) Heisenberg: In the atomic scale, it is impossible to determine simultaneously both the position and velocity of an electron Current modelling paradigm has also discovered Werner Heisenberg (1901-1976) uncertainty at our normal scale and encourages decision- making in an uncertain background
  • 27. 3. An Emerging philosophy for NFL? • Bertallanffy’s General Systems Theory (GTS) –1941 • Promoted GTS with the aims of: – Transferring knowledge by investigating isomorphy of concepts – Developing adequate theoretical models – Eliminating duplications in different fields – Promoting the unity of science Ludwig von Bertallanffy (1901-72) • He articulated the role of entropy and information: – closed systems: tend to move toward random state or increasing disorder – open systems: open internally in relation to themselves and externally in relation to the environment – social systems: other possibilities … • Schrödinger: living organisms feed on negative entropy, i.e. information Schrödinger Checkland: (1) GST pays for generality with lack of content, (2) Doubts if information = negative entropy But he is a leading figure in systems thinking
  • 28. 3. Let us let the stock of the knowledge available: • The law of natural selection is an undisputed explanation for mutually exclusive entities • Its application to society was disastrous due to ignoring existing negative feedback loops • A great deal is understood on the operation of negative feedback in mutually inclusive entities • But the current knowledge is not putting the emergence of NFLs in the timeline after the Law of Natural Selection • Is there a timeline for both?
  • 29. 3. Overview of the Evolutionary Timeline • The evolution led to the emergence of man 100,000- 140,000 years ago • Man’s facts engine perceived the selective of a diversity new techniques: association, reason, observation, cooperation, telling a lie, coercion, deception • Association, reason and observation stand out for helping form the cognitive faculty • The selective advantage of negative feedback emerged in 1500 through reductive science and diversifying since then but this gave rise to entropy • The selective advantage of reducing the entropy produced by reductive science is being dealt with by systems science since 1940 AND NOW with the foresight of sustainable development
  • 30. Detailed Timeline • Complexities: organised hierarchically • Lower Hierarchies: evolve:- – Closed systems: Lifeless complexities emerged through cause-and-effect interactions by chance – Life emerged by interacting complexities with the emergent properties of reproduction – Cultures of primitive living things reproduced as long as their inputs were sufficient, true to the statement in the Matrix film – Gene pool and mutation: two mechanisms are there and are engine of variations – Cooperation: There was a selective advantage for cooperation among primitive living cells • Higher Hierarchies: cooperating primitive living cells evolved – Open Systems: There was a selective advantage for specialisation of the cells through a centralised control system of cells, where the control was through negative feedback mechanisms – There was a selective advantage for the emergence of negative feedback to respond to the environment by exploiting information – Individuality and communality: There was a selective advantage for both self-interests and communal life and both emerged and evolved in a variety of forms • Diversification and punctuated events made up history until the arrival of the mankind • A few evolutionary changes in the biology of the mankind gave rise to language and technology • Man was not much different from other species until, say, 10000 years ago • Since then settled way of life had a profound effect on the evolution of cultural life • Since then, the selective advantage of association, reason, observation, cooperation, telling a lie, coercion, deception … has emerged among the mankind • The selective advantage of morality prevailed in social life, in the form negative feedback against very obvious harmful eefects of killing, steeling, telling a lie … • Science was born in the form of negative feedback and data in reasoning by Galilei
  • 31. 3. The Evolution in Science No Science yet Society Input Output Open Loop e.g. Philosophy driven by reason Religion driven by faith Reductive Science Input Output Society Internally Closed Loop Externally Open Loop Systems Science Society Input Output Internally Closed Loop Externally Open Loop Input Output Science Multi-loop Architecture
  • 32. 4. Where are we now? • NFL is not a panacea but can lead to stagnation, e.g. religions and Nietsche’s attack on Christianity • Speed of propagation increases from the slow scale of natural selection to the fast scale of avian/swine flu • When many systems converge, risks transform from extensive to extensive-and-intensive scales – the emergence of systemic risk • Interactions of two systems can be regular but subject to some uncertainties, whereas interactions of many systems can be subject to chaos and catastrophic changes • Should we not slow the pace of our so called progress? • Are we driven by NFLs or by natural selection or by social Darwinists?