2. +
What will we cover?
Economic Overview
Context for the Policy decisions
Vision and Objective:
How various parts fit together
What could go wrong?
3. +
Overview
GDP Growth
Expected to be 7.4% and between 8.1 to 8.5%
Fiscal Deficit on course for FY 16 at 3.9% and then 3.5%
Current Account Deficit under control, Forex Reserves High
Global Economy down: Imports & Exports down TD@106.8Bn
FDI up by 40%, Forex Reserves at 350 Bn record high
Infrastructure projects stalled, slowly being unclogged
Bank balance sheets in trouble, NPA’s at a record high
Industrial growth very slow
Private sector lacks funds/desire to invest
LPG PAHAL scheme reduction in leakages down by 24%
Record addition in Power Generation & Coal production
4. +
Context for Budget 2016
Global economic slowdown
Commodity prices at major low
Two big bills
OROP
Seventh Pay commission
Industrial growth very slow
IIP at 3.1% compared to 2.6% last year
Infrastructure clogged with stalled projects
Banks in deep trouble
High NPAs & Restructured loans
Rural distress
2 successive droughts
Farm productivity is key to growth without inflation
5. +
Target Areas
Subsidy reform
Leakages very high in Fertilizer, Kerosene etc
DBT based JAM Trilogy
Power sector Mess
Electricity Discoms accumulated losses at 3.8 lakh crore
Banking sector mess
Why 25 banks?
Will government keep bailing out banks?
Exit policy
Rule of the market: Productive Efficient firms survive & Grow
Privatization
PSU’s accumulated losses: 1.04 lakh Crore (13-14 fig)
Why should government run Telco’s, Airlines, Steel plants etc
6. +
Theme 1: Fiscal Consolidation
High Fiscal Deficit
Higher Borrowings
Inflation High Interest rates
Poor International Ratings
Need for Public Investment
Fiscal Deficit
2015-16 at 3.9%, 2016-17 to 3.5%
Achieved through rise in indirect taxes (Excise on Oil sector)
2016-17 FD depends on Revenue assumptions holding
7. +
Theme 2: Infrastructure
Infrastructure Vs Subsidies and Schemes
2.18 lakh Crore direct investment
Roads, Railways, and Irrigation
Solving the Infrastructure traffic jam
Higher pace of highway construction
Power generation, Village electrification, coal production
JAM approach to subsidies
JDY – Aadhar Card – Mobile Transfers
Successful experiment in LPG Reduction in leakages by 24%
Fertilizers next?
The Power sector Mess
UDAY scheme
8. +
Theme 3: Tax Reforms
Amnesty Scheme
5.5 Lakh crore locked in Tax litigation
Pay 45% Tax and get immunity
Upto 10 lakhs, pay arrears without penalty or interests
Tax dispute settlement
Increases revenues, Unclogs legal system
Tax reform
Tax on super rich.
Taxes on Diesel & Luxury Cars
Additional 10% tax on dividends above 10 lakhs
All Savings schemes brought to standard platform
Regulatory Environment
New Bankruptcy code to create exit policy
9. +
Theme 4: Agriculture & Rural
Aid transfer to Gram Panchayats at 2.87 lakh crore
Massive 228% increase
Crop Insurance & Farm Interest subvention
Rs 5500 Cr
NREGA highest ever allocation
Rural Electrification, Massive push for Rural gas connections
Irrigation
Increase in irrigated land : 28.5 lakh hectares
Focus on ground water recharging: 6000 Cr
Unified Agri mrket
585 regulated wholesale markets
States to ammend APMC acts
10. +
Theme 5: Banking reforms
Banks in deep trouble
180,000 Crore to 400,000 Crore
Bankruptcy code, New ARCs
Too little too late?
11,200 Cr to 25,000 Cr allocation
Indradhanush: Banking reforms
Bank Boards Commission: Vinod Rai.
Will appoint directors and key posts
Implement Banking reforms
Where will the rest of the money come from?
IDBI: Signals willingness to dilute stake below 50%
Why do we need 25 PSU banks?
11. +
The Verdict
A thoughtful and well Intentioned budget
Under severe constraints
But will it be enough?
Implementation is the key
Irrigation & Farm productivity: Difficult execution
Soil Health Cards – Sustainable Irrigation – Crop insrance
Scientific fertilizer usage – Change crop usage patterns – Free Agri markets
Inshallah!
God, Global Economy & GST
Will Oil prices stay low?
Subsidy reforms
DBT is the key
Biometric authentication at Subsidy POS
Targeted Subsidies minimizing leakages & administration costs!
Key misses
Banking reforms
Privatization
12. +
The Verdict
Fiscal Consolidation
Non tax receipts (Spectrum, Disinvestment, Tax amnesty)
Low FD Low Inflation RBI cuts rates Pvt investment boost
The Banking Mess
25,000 Cr is nowhere near enough
Consolidation of banks, Privatization
Tentative & Timid steps?
Corporate tax reforms
Eliminate exemptions & Reduce Tax rate has not happened
Govt to pay 8.33% EPF for 3 years
Small Incentive to generate employment
Where is the Big bang reform?
Fear of electoral backlash
Legislation struck in RS
Editor's Notes
Long term plan was 3% by 2016/17, now 2017/18.
1 Cr to 10.5 Cr. From LPG to other schemes.
Service tax and Central Excise registration in 48 hours. 14 approvals through one online portal.
APMC – Socialist era bodies which have monopoly control on farm produce. 12 States have reformed APMC laws. MSPs only for Rice & Wheat distorts crop choices. Vegetables, Pulses and Oil seeds – Maximum inflation.