Predictive modeling in trucking how critical decisions are made using data
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Approximately 70% of commercial freight is moved around the US in trucks - "If you bought it, a truck brought it". As a fundamental back bone of American way of life, the trucking industry faces several challenges from safety issues to an acute shortage of skilled drivers. We have leveraged the power machine learning techniques to provide several end to end solution to mitigate risks and make better business decisions.
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Predictive modeling in trucking how critical decisions are made using data
- 1. 1 Predictive Modeling in Trucking HOW CRITICAL DECISIONS ARE MADE USING DATA Photo Credit: Truck PR
- 3. 3 Photo Credit: Raymond Clark
- 4. 4 Photo Credit: Peter Menzel
- 5. 5 ISSUE 1 Photo Credit: Counselor Offices
- 6. 6 WAGE GAP Source Bureau of Labor Statistics AverageAnnualWage(US$) 30000 32000 34000 36000 38000 40000 42000 44000 46000 48000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg Driver Wage Avg US Worker Wage 13%
- 7. 7 AVERAGE AGE OF TRUCK DRIVER Bureau of Labor, 18b. Employed persons by detailed industry and age, 2014 42.3 47 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 American Worker Truck Drivers AgeinYears (Average)
- 8. 8 DRIVER SHORTAGE 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1350000 1400000 1450000 1500000 1550000 1600000 1650000 1700000 1750000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Heavy & Tractor Trailer Driver Employment Truck Tonnage Index Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis and Bureau of Transportation Statistics Drivers TruckTonnageIndex
- 9. 9 PROJECTED DRIVER SHORTAGE Source: FTR Transportation Intelligence Drivers 1400000 1500000 1600000 1700000 1800000 1900000 2000000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Supply Demand Quarter Million
- 10. 10 WHO ARE WE
- 11. 11 2004 FleetRisk Advisors HISTORY 2011 Acquired By Qualcomm 2013 Acquired By Vista Equity Partners 2012 Rebranded as Omnitracs
- 12. 12 50 % 1 Million 29 GB Photo Credit: Antonio R Villaraigosa
- 13. 13 WHAT DO WE DO
- 14. 14 HOURS OF SERVICE DRIVER LOG
- 15. 15 ON DUTY NOT DRIVING SLEEPER BERTH ON DUTY DRIVING OFF DUTY 4 2 3 1 DRIVER LOG – 1 DAY 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222224444444444433333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333344444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444443333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 333333333333333333333344444444444444444444433333333334444444444444444444444444444444444444444444411111111111111 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444433333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333344444444444444444444444 44444222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222224444444444433333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333344444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444443333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 333333333333333333333344444444444444444444433333333334444444444444444444444444444444444444444444411111111111111 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444433333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333344444444444444444444444 44444222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22
- 16. 16 VARIABILITY IN SHIFT START HOURS PRODUCTIVE HOURS DRIVEN GOOD SLEEP LATE NIGHT DRIVING
- 18. 18 DEEP DIVE INPUTOUTPUT VEHICLE DATA EXTERNAL DATA DRIVER & COMPANY DATA Telematics Lane Depart Navigation Security RFID And More CSA Traffic Financial Weather Census And More Finance Safety Claims Dispatch Maintenance Compliance HR Service Level And More DRIVING CENTER® REMEDIATION TOOLS Sends alerts Manages workflow Displays Models Results Targets At-Risk Drivers Suggests Remediation Tracks & Reports
- 19. 19 HOW THE PREDICTIVE MODEL WORKS Latest Driver Data Today What Caused Past Events? Miles Pay Stops HoS DoT Physical Prior Jobs Loads Messages Training Driver Prediction Tomorrow Predictive Model Training / Testing
- 20. 20 PREDICTORS Aggregate Data Field Names Average Empty Miles Total Miles Prior 6 Terms Variability in Shift Start Time Total Miles Prior Year Average Pre-Employment Tenure Total Number of Critical Events Count Previous Non Trucking Jobs Tenure Count Trips Prior Term Total Empty Miles Empty Percent Compared to the Fleet Average Total Loaded Miles Weekly Number of Night Sleep Opportunities Physical Evaluation Due Date Minimum Additional Payment Amount Total Time in the Sleeper Berth from 11pm-Midnight Number of Prior Employers in the Last 10 Years Total Time in the Sleeper Berth from 1pm-2pm Number of Prior Employers in the Last Year Total Time in the Sleeper Berth from 3pm-4pm Service Failure Count Last 3 Months Total Time on Duty Not Driving from 6am-7am Sum of the Total Paycheck Transaction Amount Variability in Driving Hours per Week Sum of Transaction Amount on the Paycheck Variability in Night Sleep Opportunities POP QUIZ
- 21. 21 WHAT CAN BE PREDICTED? Accidents Voluntary Terminations Worker’s Compensation Claims Fatigue Critical Events Ideal Applicants
- 22. 22 CONVERSATIONS Photo Credit: Martin Vinacur
- 23. 23 ADDRESSING VARIOUS ISSUES Conversations with a Driver Predicted To Quit had a conversation over the phone with <driver> when i verbed him on his <client> load for tomorrow. he seems to be ok with everything, was glad to hear we were doing some <client> lanes that we had lost, meaning some better regional loads that he likes. he was concerned about the fuel solutions, so we went over that, and i think he grasps it now, said he will be looking for these. otherwise everything was ok, he's comfortable with what he's doing, just wants to make money. <driver> has some personal issues going on, had a family emergency recently and needs to take the week off. i asked if he was ok and if there's anything i can do for him. he did not want to discuss it and said he will let me know if anything changes. <driver> has been sick for a few days, feeling better now, heading out now. concerned with how slow things have been, but stresses that it's very important for him to make his home times. talked to <driver> today, things seem to be going much better for him. he was happy that he already had a load back from la, and was glad to hear freight is picking up. again, did not seem like he wanted to talk about his personal stuff, and i did not push. Photo Credit: Truck Driver Salary.com
- 24. 24 spoke with <driver>, we were working on plan home for sons birthday party this weekend , he is divorced and has young son - he takes his time off in woodbridge va- where wife lives with son, he does not have a place of his own, he is from georgia originally - hes running over the road and taking time off in woodbridge to see his son- he is new to trucking and liking it so far with us - we were able to get him home for the holidays and his sons birthday - he is looking to get some more experience PERSONAL Conversations with a Young Driver predicted to Quit Photo Credit: TKOGraphics.com
- 25. 25 NOT ALWAYS OBVIOUS Photo Credit: TruckingInfo.com
- 26. 26 Data From 10 October 2015 To 1 January 2016 Top 3 Managers with no Events MANAGERS WITH AND WITHOUT EVENTS Word Cloud Bottom 3 Managers with Multiple Events 6795 Words, 68 Drivers 3175 Words, 88 Drivers
- 27. 27 MEASURE QUALITY OF CONVERSATIONS How To
- 28. 28 METRICS The Scorecard is used to measure the quality of Manager’s conversation with high risk drivers based on: Time to Remediations Duplicate Messages Words Used Sentiment Portal Usage MANAGER SCORECARD Measuring Quality of Conversation Events Manager Rank J K 1 SC 2 TC 3 RK 4 PP 5 SB 6 NB 7 ES 8 BA 9 TS 10 SR 11 KR 12 GH 13 1 VB 14 HW1 15 HW2 16 1 RH 17 1 LU 18 5 TM 19 1 TD 20 2 MB 21 100% of all events associated to Managers who did not have good conversations
- 29. 29 DOES IT WORK?
- 30. 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% VoluntaryAnnualizedTurnover Score Date Never Remediated Remediated TURNOVER RATE R E M E D I AT E D V S N E V E R R E M E D I AT E D Data From 3 January 2014 To 2 January 2016
- 31. 31 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DriverCount AccidentsPer100Drivers (n=6,931) ACCIDENTS Data From 2000 To 2015 Driver Count up 160% yet Accidents down 53% R E S U LT S O V E R 1 5 Y E A R S Year
- 32. 32 DRIVE TIME 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 DriveTime(Hours) Never Remediated Remediated Data From 5 January 2014 To 15 August 2015 5% Difference = 2 cents per mile R E M E D I AT E D V S N E V E R R E M E D I AT E D
- 33. 33 BUSINESS DECISION THROUGH DATA Photo Credit: Raymond Clark images ACCIDENTS
- 34. 34 TIME OF DAY EFFECT Loss of Control Accident 23 26 19 12 3 5 1 4 3 23 51 60 57 50 51 48 62 5 10 4 6 5 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 PM 2 PM 3 PM 4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 8 PM 9 PM 10 PM 11 PM 12 AM 1 AM 2 AM 3 AM 4 AM 5 AM 6 AM 7 AM 8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM NUMBEROFACCIDENTS Oct, Nov, Dec-2014 (n=535) 75% of Loss of Control accidents occurred between 11pm and 7am when nocturnal sleep usually occurs. TIME OF DAY
- 35. 35 BUSINESS DECISION THROUGH DATA Photo Credit: Raymond Clark images TURNOVER
- 36. 36 MEDICAL EVALUATION Department of Transportation 263 191 121 121 93 87 40 47 49 46 34 22 122 94 61 53 61 49 53 43 33 67 50 30 2 20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 NumberofVoluntaryQuits Months Before Next Scheduled Physical Date POP QUIZ
- 37. 37 BUSINESS DECISION THROUGH DATA Photo Credit: Raymond Clark images RECRUITING
- 38. 38 CONVENTIONAL WISDOM VS DATA INSIGHT Hiring Drivers 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 No Yes GoodHireProbability Trucking School Indicator
- 39. 39 Data From 1 January 2010 To 30 November 2015 Present-Day Active Driver Percentages MILITARY VETERANS Recruiting Veteran 19% Non - Veteran 81% 13.0 19.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 Military Background Non-Military LossesperMM Present-Day Active Driver Percentages Military background drivers incurred 32% less non-preventable losses than non-military drivers
- 40. 40 BUSINESS DECISION THROUGH DATA Photo Credit: Raymond Clark images EFFICIENCY
- 41. 41 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Client1 APMM APMM Bencmark BENCHMARKING How Do I Compare To My Peer Group? Months AccidentperMillionMiles POP QUIZ
- 42. 42 WORD “WAIT” AT LOCATION Geo - Locations with
- 43. 43 BUSINESS DECISION THROUGH DATA Photo Credit: Raymond Clark images TRENDS
- 44. 44 MILLENNIALS CHOOSE TO LIVE CLOSER TO WORK Industry Trends 13 70 42 8 38 18 27 175 43 85 296 92 1 48 224 62 42 184 47 2 22 132 3538 251 77 2 15 163 87 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Generation Y Generation X Baby Boomers Maturists MilesBetweenHomeZip&TerminalZip Driver Age on Hire Date Bucket Data as of June 30 2015 0 to 2 Miles 3 to 5 Miles 6 to 10 Miles 11 to 20 Miles 21 to 30 Miles 31 to 40 Miles 41 to 50 Miles 51 to 100 Miles 101+ Miles Age Group: Range: Maturists 70+ Baby Boomers 55 to 69 Generation X 35 to 54 Generation Y 20 to 34
- 45. 45 Photo Credit: TriciaPhoto Credit: NPR.org
- 46. 46QUESTIONS? Photo Credit: Daimler Freightliner
Editor's Notes
- There will be 2,50,000 Openings in another 5 years. You are guaranteed a job. Before you rush forward with your resume let me tell you the responsibilities and requirements that are really quite extensive Sitting down almost 12 hours a day. You could be working 70-80 hours a week You cannot go home and will be provided a bunkbed to sleep at your desk And involves 100% travel Interested?
- Long Hours: Truck driver can work 14 hours a day – 11 or more hours driving in that 14. Away from family, imagine young drivers who have young kids. Sleep: A study conducted by National Center for Biotechnology Information with 80 drivers across different driving schedules found out drivers were on average 5.18 hours in bed per day and got 4.78 hours of sleep over a 5 day period. Home Sickness and Loneliness: Away for weeks together. On call due to scheduling changes.
- Health & Nutrition: Sitting for 14 hours a day and on top of that not getting nutritious food. 86% of truck drivers are obese.
- Unsafe: One of the most unsafe jobs in America 12% of all worker related deaths in US was truck drivers. Ranked 7 in Most Dangerous jobs.
- In spite of working 70 hours a week – (11 hours driving out of 14 hours on duty) and being away from home, a driver can make an average take home pay between $500 – 1000 / week This is the reason they prefer something like being a barista at Starbucks or work at Home Depot or anything else but driving trucks.
- Average cost to hire driver $5000
- Events are not random but effects of changes to driver behavior
- Qualcomm had originally pioneered the use of commercial vehicle telematics in the late 1980’s with the introduction of the first mobile information system for transportation and logistics. Omnitracs was therefore Qualcomm’s first significant business unit, and it has been able to maintain a leadership position within the trucking industry for 25 years. “Qualcomm” was then formally founded a little later in 1985, by fellow engineers Irwin Jacobs and Andrew Viterbi and by two private investors Parviz Nazarian and Neil Kadisha. The new company began supplying satellite messaging services and integrated circuits for digital radio communications. The new company’s first project was essentially a two way paging system using satellite tracking devices to help monitor the thousands of trucks that were always moving around the country every day. Based on the satellite communications technology they used for trucks, Qualcomm subsequently developed and commercialized their own proprietary Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)
- Omnitracs – HOS, Productivity Tools, Critical Events, Fault Monitoring, Navigation
- Know more about HOS and ELD Mandate
- Flatbed – Tarp, refueling, pre / post trip inspection, refueling gas Tank – Tank Wash, A proxy for pay check and also home time Unpredictable start times How much sleep is the driver getting when he/she should and When? How many hours have the drivers been on-duty but have not driven? How many times has the drivers been driving during the late night / pre-dawn hours?
- Events are not random but effects of changes to driver behavior
- What next after predicting? NON-TRANSACTIONAL Timely Targeted Sincere To the majority of drivers this will be a very timely call, you will hear “you must have ESP” Find your conversation entry point – a topic you feel comfortable with and build from there What's really going in in the drivers mind is most likely not in your data (yet) Drivers leave breadcrumbs in your data that lead to quits They are on the model’s radar for a reason – your job is to find it and then create a solution
- Over 40 days.
- Meauring ROI. Predictive modeling is predicting a non-event so how do we know this works?
- 65% -> 50% =15% of 12000 =1800 X $5000 = $ 9 Million
- $$$$ Cost?
- Start of Program May 2014 Increases productivity Good Driver: 40000 miles / year =>
- Can cost $50-300 Usually 2 years without restriction But if you are taking high blood pressure medications, a sleep disorder, and taking oral medications for diabetes can restrict the medical card to one year or less, depending on how frequently the condition needs monitoring. With the typical 3-month medical card, you needed to do something to bring some physical condition under control. If you did that, and you go back to see your last DOT examiner, he can issue you a new medical card for typically one year. If you didn’t fix the issue, he can choose not to extend the card. So get the condition taken care of and don’t have to worry about short term medical cards.
- Age related Middle aged or higher with some trucking experience
- Since we have data from several trucking companies we can show an unbiased comparison. Normalized – APMM More miles mean more probability for accident but that’s not the case so we normalize the accident to a million miles across all driver categories.
- Problem Customers Can we use it for Pricing problem customers?
- 3.5 million truck drivers move 70% of our freights – groceries, clothes, electronics, cars, you name it. As a consumption centric society we fundamentally depend on these trucks and drivers and yet they get very little thanks or recognition for it . At Omnitracs we protect and enhance the lives of these drivers as they risk their lives and health making a living for their families. So the next time you cut off a truck driver on the I-285 or I 85 ramp, DON’T