In BMI's latest update of Japan's telecommunications market, we have provided latest mobile and 3G data for the quarter ended June 2010, leading to a revision in the latter's forecasts. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) has also published new data for fixed-line and broadband subscribers for the quarter ended March 2010, and which also led updated forecasts. There were a total of 111.153mn 3G subscribers in Japan at the end of June 2010. This accounted for 94.3% of total mobile subscribers at 117.813mn. Over the year ended June 2010, the number of 3G subscribers grew by 8.9% y-o-y, while in terms of overall mobile subscribers, this increased by just 4.2% y-o-y. This reveals that 3G continues to push overall growth of the market. A major reason for this is the closure of the operators' 2G networks, as they look to migrate their entire customer bases to 3G networks. As this report was due to be published, it was announced that Softbank Mobile will see competition in terms of the Apple iPhone 4. Until August 2010, the handset had been responsible for winning Softbank Mobile not only net additions ' in the quarter ended June 2010, its share of the net additions market reached over 50% ' but also saw the operator report the strongest and positive growth in terms of over the quarter and year ended Q210 for blended ARPU. Competition will arrive from Japan Communications, which has an MVNO agreement with NTT DoCoMo, and will start offering SIMs that can be used with the iPhone. However, Softbank Mobile should not be too concerned over seeing any immediate impact on its net additions or ARPU from the entrance of Japan Communications. This is because the cost of the SIM is over JPY5,280 per month for unlimited data but does not include the cost of voice calls. Compare this with Softbank Mobile, which has an iPhone price plan for as little as JPY980, while unlimited data packages start from around JPY2,500. In addition, the iPhone must be unlocked before it can be used with a Japan Communications iPhone handset, which means that only those customers who purchased a handset online or abroad may take advantage. Japan still does not offer unlocked handsets. That said, NTT DoCoMo announced it had decided to offer unlocked mobile phones in Japan from April 2011. The broadband sector, meanwhile, revealed a total of 32.04mn subscribers as of March 2010. The bulk of connections were FTTH, which has also helped continue to drive broadband growth. BMI has also revised its forecast for broadband, and believes that the market will grow by 6.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 33.768mn by 2010, before rising at an annual average rate of 9.4% to reach 49.729mn subscribers by 2014.
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Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
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Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Published on September 2010
Report Summary
In BMI's latest update of Japan's telecommunications market, we have provided latest mobile and 3G data for the quarter ended June
2010, leading to a revision in the latter's forecasts. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) has also published new
data for fixed-line and broadband subscribers for the quarter ended March 2010, and which also led updated forecasts. There were a
total of 111.153mn 3G subscribers in Japan at the end of June 2010. This accounted for 94.3% of total mobile subscribers at
117.813mn. Over the year ended June 2010, the number of 3G subscribers grew by 8.9% y-o-y, while in terms of overall mobile
subscribers, this increased by just 4.2% y-o-y. This reveals that 3G continues to push overall growth of the market. A major reason for
this is the closure of the operators' 2G networks, as they look to migrate their entire customer bases to 3G networks.
As this report was due to be published, it was announced that Softbank Mobile will see competition in terms of the Apple iPhone 4.
Until August 2010, the handset had been responsible for winning Softbank Mobile not only net additions ' in the quarter ended June
2010, its share of the net additions market reached over 50% ' but also saw the operator report the strongest and positive growth in
terms of over the quarter and year ended Q210 for blended ARPU. Competition will arrive from Japan Communications, which has an
MVNO agreement with NTT DoCoMo, and will start offering SIMs that can be used with the iPhone.
However, Softbank Mobile should not be too concerned over seeing any immediate impact on its net additions or ARPU from the
entrance of Japan Communications. This is because the cost of the SIM is over JPY5,280 per month for unlimited data but does not
include the cost of voice calls. Compare this with Softbank Mobile, which has an iPhone price plan for as little as JPY980, while
unlimited data packages start from around JPY2,500. In addition, the iPhone must be unlocked before it can be used with a Japan
Communications iPhone handset, which means that only those customers who purchased a handset online or abroad may take
advantage. Japan still does not offer unlocked handsets. That said, NTT DoCoMo announced it had decided to offer unlocked mobile
phones in Japan from April 2011. The broadband sector, meanwhile, revealed a total of 32.04mn subscribers as of March 2010. The
bulk of connections were FTTH, which has also helped continue to drive broadband growth. BMI has also revised its forecast for
broadband, and believes that the market will grow by 6.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 33.768mn by 2010, before rising at an
annual average rate of 9.4% to reach 49.729mn subscribers by 2014.
Table of Content
Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Japan Wireline SWOT .. 8
Japan Mobile SWOT ..... 9
Japan Political SWOT 10
Japan Economic SWOT ...... 11
Business Environment Ratings .... 12
Japan ....... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 18
Mobile ...... 18
Table: Mobile ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 ....... 18
ARPU ....... 20
Table: ARPU ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014 ....... 20
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Fixed Line 21
Table: Fixed Line ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 . 21
Internet .... 22
Table: Internet ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 ...... 22
Market Data Analysis .... 24
Mobile ...... 24
Table: Japan Mobile And PHS Market Share, June 2010 ... 24
ARPU .. 26
Table: Japanese ARPUs, Q208-Q210 (JPY/month) .... 26
Table: Japanese Voice ARPUs Q208-Q210 (JPY/month) ... 27
Table: Japanese Data ARPUs, Q208-Q210 (JPY/month) ... 28
3G ....... 29
Table: 3G Mobile Subscriber Market, June 2010 ....... 29
Table: 3G Mobile Net Additions, June 2010 ....... 30
LTE ..... 31
Mobile Contract Wins . 33
Table: Mobile Contract Wins ...... 33
Mobile Content 34
Regional Outlook 34
Table: Asia Mobile VAS Market By Service, 2009 (US$bn) 34
Country Outlook . 35
Mobile Internet ... 37
Value-Added Services Timeline... 39
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2008-2009 ... 39
Mobile Operator Data ..... 40
Table: Japan Mobile Market Overview ....... 40
NTT DoCoMo ..... 41
Table: KDDI ....... 42
Table: Softbank Mobile ....... 43
Fixed Line 44
Table: Fixed-Line Operators, June 2010 .... 45
Internet .... 46
FTTH .. 47
Table: NTT East and NTT West: ADSL vs FTTH ('000) ..... 48
Table: Number Of Broadband Subscriptions By Technology Type (mn) ...... 49
DSL ..... 49
VoIP Services ...... 50
WiMAX ....... 51
Wireline Developments .... 52
Table: Wireline Developments (Fixed-Line And Broadband) ...... 52
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments ...... 53
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities In Japan ... 53
Competition 55
Table: Licence Categories .. 55
Table: Notification Categories .... 55
Licensing..... 56
Interconnection ... 57
Regulatory Developments 58
Industry Developments..... 58
Company Monitor .. 59
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Cisco Systems .. 59
Table: Cisco Systems: Overall Financial Performance (US$bn) . 59
Table: Cisco Systems: Major Contracts Awarded In Asia (2010) 62
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitor Analysis . 63
Table: Key Players: Japan Telecoms Sector ....... 63
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators 2003-2009 (FY end March 31 unless stated) .... 63
Operator Profiles ... 64
NTT Corporation 64
NTT DoCoMo ..... 70
KDDI Corporation ...... 74
Softbank Corp ..... 78
Key Players .... 82
Fixed Line 82
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ..... 82
Broadband ....... 83
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .... 83
Mobile ...... 84
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ... 84
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data..... 85
Section 1: Population ....... 85
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 86
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 86
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 86
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 86
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ...... 87
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 87
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 87
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 88
Glossary Of Terms 89
Table: Glossary Of Terms ... 89
BMI Methodology .. 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 90
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .... 90
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 92
Table: Ratings Indicators ... 93
Weighting .... 94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 94
Sources ....... 94
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