Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU: The current market, drivers to growth, future capacity forecasts

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Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU: The current market, drivers to
growth, future capacity forecasts
Published on July 2009

Report Summary

Executive Summary

Electrical production capacity has had historically an energy mix consisting primarily of fossil fuels including gas, coal and oil, backed
up with a volume of nuclear and hydro power.

The EU-27 countries are trying to lower carbon emissions, and build an interconnected, efficient energy system. New targets have
been created by the EC that request that by 2020 the EU-27 countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% (compared
with 1990 levels) by 2020; improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020; raise the share of renewable energy to 20 % by 2020; increase
the level of biofuels in transport fuel to 10% by 2020.

In trying to meet these objectives, a new energy market is beginning to evolve. Recent addition has been made to the energy mix by
way of renewable energy technologies which include power from the wind - wind turbines, and power from the sun - solar cells, and
geothermal ' relying on the heat that can be found at varying degrees of depth into the Earth's surface. In the last decade newly
installed renewable energy technologies are starting to gain a notable share of the market.

Key findings

' Germany has the largest volume of installed renewable energy technology topping the market in wind and solar, the two field leading
technologies. Germany has installed around 2 GW of grid connected solar photovoltaics annually for the last two years.
' Hydroelectric power makes up almost two thirds of the current renewable energy electrical generation market.
' Geothermal energy only utilized for electricity generation in Italy, Iceland, Portugal and Turkey. The market share of geothermal
capacity only accounts for 1% of the total installed capacity. Iceland makes up 61% of the geothermal market share.
' In terms of market share, the annual installed capacity of wind has grown from 0% in 1995 to 30% in 2007.

Key features of this report

' Analysis of energy type volumes, capacity installed and generation output across European countries.
' Market projections to 2020, including an evaluation of energy type and national and international growth potential.
' Overview of trends impacting on and shaping innovation in the energy market.
' New renewable energy technology analysis including innovation, capacity investment.

Use this report to

' Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how European market trends and legislation are influencing the development

Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU: The current market, drivers to growth, future capacity forecasts (From Slideshare) Page 1/8


of the renewable energy market.
' Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive review of European markets in the renewable energy market
between 1990 and 2008.
' Assess the emerging trends in renewable energy technology ' wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal, wave - capacity and
generation.

Discover

' What are the drivers shaping and influencing new capacity installed in the energy industry'
' How will renewable energy technologies capacity share perform to 2020' What are the opportunities'
' What are the forecast market growth rates 2008-2030' Which markets will see the highest value growth and which the highest
volume growth'
' Which regions and countries offer the greatest opportunity for growth'

Table of Content

Table of Contents
Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU
Executive summary 10
Energy security and environmental drivers 10
Infrastructure 11
Current state of EU energy market 12
Wind capacity in the EU 13
Solar capacity in the EU 14
Future outlook for the renewable energy market 15
Chapter 1 Introduction 18
Report introduction 18
Chapter 2 Energy security and environmental drivers 22
Summary 22
Introduction 23
Energy security 23
Fossil fuel generation and emissions 28
Resource depletion and alternatives to oil 29
The pace of resource depletion 29
Liquid alternatives to oil 30
Replacing existing capacity 32
Environmental concerns 35
Population growth 36
CO2 emissions by country 38
Global warming 42
Renewable energy and energy efficiency targets in the EU 42
Chapter 3 Infrastructure 46
Summary 46
Introduction 46
Interconnections 47
Energy networks 47
Current international interconnections 48



Planned international interconnections 50
Grid extension to accommodate renewables 53
Grid infrastructure 53
Grid connection issues 54
Grid connection costs 55
Intelligent grid management 56
Grid upgrades 56
Future renewable infrastructure/ grid requirements 57
Med Ring 59
African connection 59
Intercontinental HVDC interconnection 60
Super Grid 61
EU wind map 63
EU solar map 64
Chapter 4 Current state of the EU energy market 68
Summary 68
Introduction 68
Energy demand in the EU (consumption) 69
Total energy consumption 69
Final energy consumption 73
EU-27 electricity capacity 75
Capacity factor 76
Electricity installed capacity mix 79
Wind capacity 84
Solar capacity 84
Geothermal capacity 84
Hydropower capacity 85
EU-27 electricity generation 85
Gross electricity generation 85
Recent installed energy capacity summary 88
Percentage mix of what has been recently installed in Europe 88
Chapter 5 Wind capacity in the EU 92
Summary 92
Introduction 92
The European wind market 93
Leading countries 93
Cumulative wind power 96
New installed wind 98
Installed capacity dominating the market 98
Electricity production from installed wind power 101
Wind capacity planned and under construction 102
Drivers of European wind power market capacity 103
The cost of wind power 103
Wind capital costs 103
Wind integration costs 104
Government legislation effecting the wind market in Europe 105
Regulatory price-driven mechanisms 105
Quantity-based market schemes 106
Voluntary approaches 107
Indirect strategies 107



Current wind support mechanisms in the EU 108
Chapter 6 Solar capacity in the EU 110
Summary 110
Introduction 110
The European solar market 111
Leading countries 111
Cumulative solar capacity 114
New installed solar capacity 115
Solar capacity planned and under construction 116
Drivers of European solar market capacity 117
The cost of solar power 117
Competitiveness of grid-connected applications 117
Factors affecting PV cost reductions 118
Government legislation effecting the solar PV market in Europe 119
Renewable energy 'Feed-in-Tariff' (REFIT) 119
Financing 119
Administration 120
Guaranteed grid access 120
Government and industry commitment 120
Chapter 7 Future outlook for the European renewable energy market 124
Summary 124
Introduction 124
Future energy consumption 125
Population growth 125
Population forecasts 125
Increased electrical generation capacity based on population growth 126
Energy consumption and its impact 127
Overall energy consumption 127
Oil consumption 129
Future carbon emissions 129
Oil price rises 130
Future energy consumption by type to 2020 131
Renewable energy percentage mix to 2020 132
Scenarios for implementation of renewable electricity generation capacity 132
Wind growth to 2020 133
Onshore wind 133
Offshore wind 134
Solar power growth to 2020 135
Wind and solar cumulative capacity by 2020 137
Other renewables 138
Problems with increasing mass hydropower capacity 138
Other renewable energy growth to 2020 138
Issues with switching to renewable technologies 140
Capacity factor 140
Efficiency 140
Conclusions 142
Summary of issues 142
Gross electricity production supplied by renewables 144
Electricity generation by type 144
Current generation mix 145



Future final energy supplied by renewables 146
Future European electricity generation scenarios 148
Reference scenario 149
High scenario 151
Low scenario 153
Appendix 158
Bibliography 158
References 158
Primary and secondary data sources 158
Index 159
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: CO2 emissions by fuel (CO2/GJ), 2007 28
Figure 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion (years), 2009 30
Figure 2.3: Changing UK generation capacity format (MW), 2003-2007 32
Figure 2.4: Replacing old capacity with renewables (MW), 2003-2007 33
Figure 2.5: EU-27 Population growth (millions of people), 1998 to 2008 36
Figure 2.6: EU-27 Population growth projection (millions of people), 2010-2060 37
Figure 2.7: EU generated carbon emissions (Million Metric tonnes of Carbon), 2006 38
Figure 2.8: EU 27 CO2 emissions by sector, 1990-2006 40
Figure 2.9: CO2 levels in the atmosphere (PPM), 1959-2008 41
Figure 3.10: Interconnectors in Europe, 2009 50
Figure 3.11: Interconnectors in the North Sea, 2008 52
Figure 3.12: The Mediterranean Ring, 2005 59
Figure 3.13: European wind speed map 63
Figure 3.14: EU Solar map, 2006 64
Figure 4.15: Gross inland consumption - EU27 by fuel (in Mtoe), 2006 69
Figure 4.16: Total EU-27 energy consumption by fuel (Mtoe), 2006 70
Figure 4.17: EU-27 Energy consumption by fuel (% usage compared to 1990), 2006 71
Figure 4.18: Explanation of capacity factor 76
Figure 4.19: Energy capacity mix in Europe (GW), end 2008 79
Figure 4.20: Installed power capacity in the EU (MW), 1990-2008 80
Figure 4.21: New installed capacity in Europe by type (MW), 2008 81
Figure 4.22: EU net increase/decrease in power capacity (MW), 2000-2008 82
Figure 4.23: Annual installed capacity in the EU by type (% share), 1995 and 2007 83
Figure 4.24: EU-27 electricity generation growth (%), 1990-2006 88
Figure 4.25: New power capacity installed in 2008 (MW) 89
Figure 5.26: Cumulative wind power installed in the EU (MW), 2008 97
Figure 5.27: Life cycle carbon emissions (CO2 equivalent/GW) 98
Figure 5.28: Additional installed wind capacity by year (MW), 1995-2008 99
Figure 5.29: Germany, Spain and Denmark's share of EU market for wind power (MW), 2000- 2008 100
Figure 7.30: Population growth forecast (billions of people), 1990-2030 126
Figure 7.31: World market energy consumption (Btu), 1990-2008 128
Figure 7.32: Primary energy consumption in the EU by fuel (Mtoe), 2008 128
Figure 7.33: Population and oil consumption growth (bn), 1965-2007 129
Figure 7.34: Global CO2 emissions growth (Million Metric Tonnes CO2), 1990-2030 130
Figure 7.35: Europe energy consumption by type (Btu), 1990-2030 131
Figure 7.36: High, reference and low onshore wind power scenarios for EU, (GW), 2010 to 2030 133
Figure 7.37: Three offshore wind power scenarios for EU, (GW), 2010 to 2030 134
Figure 7.38: EPIA EU Solar projection (GW), 2008-2013 135
Figure 7.39: EurObserv'ER EU Solar projection (MW), 2006 to 2010 136



Figure 7.40: Increasing solar cell efficiency (%), 1975-2008 141
Figure 7.41: Generation technology comparison 148
Figure 7.42: Share of generation in Europe by energy type (%), 2020 155
List of Tables
Table 2.1: EU-27 energy dependency (consumption v imports Mtoe), 2008 25
Table 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009 29
Table 2.3: Biofuels comparison (Liters of Oil Yields), to 2009 31
Table 2.4: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%) 43
Table 3.5: Electricity consumption and exchanges in regions in Europe (TWh), 2006 49
Table 4.6: Gross inland consumption (Mtoe), 2006 72
Table 4.7: EU-27 final energy consumption (TWh), 2006 74
Table 4.8: Typical capacity factors for power generating plants (%) 78
Table 4.9: Gross electricity generation in EU-27 by type (GWh), 2006 86
Table 4.10: EU-27 electricity production by source (%), 2006 86
Table 4.11: Gross electricity generation from renewables in EU-27 (GWh), 2006 87
Table 5.12: Wind power total and newly installed (MW), 2009 94
Table 5.13: Wind offshore* power total installed capacity (MW), 2007 and 2008 96
Table 5.14: EU27 Electricity production from wind power (MW), 2008 101
Table 5.15: Wind power constructions and planning until 2015, Jan 2009 102
Table 5.16: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/KW), 2003 and 2007 104
Table 5.17: Wind support schemes for EU-27 countries, 2008 108
Table 6.18: Total cumulative solar photovoltaic installed (MW), ending 2008 114
Table 6.19: Additional photovoltaic capacity installed in the EU (MW), 2008 115
Table 7.20: Oil price per barrel ('), 2000-2030 130
Table 7.21: Wind electricity production forecast to 2030 (TWh), 2008 135
Table 7.22: Electricity generation matrix, 2006 144
Table 7.23: EU electricity generation capacity (GW), 2006-2008 146
Table 7.24: Energy consumption (TWh) and capacity growth (GW), 2008-2020 147
Table 7.25: Reference EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020 150
Table 7.26: High EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020 152
Table 7.27: Low EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020 153



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