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Euro(pe): crisis without end?Some background – from recent surveys Robert Manchin Gallup Europe

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The Memory of European Citizens: EurobarometerEU support in the bloc already at historic low when measurement interruptedDK, IE, UK EAST GERMANY GREECE BIG BANG ES, PT BG, RO AT, FI, SE 1973 1981 1986 1990 1995 2004 200790 EU membership80 „good thing‟, % 71% 64%*70 MAASTRICHT60 58%50 56% 50% SCHENGEN 46% FINANCIAL CRISIS40 47%3020 pre 73* 74 S 74 A 75 S 75 A 76 S 76 A 77 S 77 A 78 S 78 A 79 S 79 A 80 S 80 A 81 S 81 A 82 S 82 A 83 S 83 A 84 S 84 A 85 S 85 A 86 S 86 A 87 S 87 A 88 S 88 A 89 S 89 A 90 S 90 A 91 S 91 A 92 S 92 A 93 S 93 A 94 S 94 A 95 S 95 A 96 S 96 A 97 S 97 A 98 S 98 A 99 S 99 A 00 S 00 A 01 S 01 A 02 S 02 A 03 S 03 A 04 S 04 A 05 S 05 A 06 S 06 A 07 S 07 A 08 S 08 A 09 S 09 A 10 S 10 A 11 S (other indicators suggest further, potentially sharp, drops in EUROPE 2 the EU support)

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THE LAST MEASUREMENT OF EU SUPPORT

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EU leadership approval,NUTS2 regions 2011 (note Spainand Italy justWorld Poll ago..) Source: Gallup 2 years 4

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agree very much that Europeanshave common values, 15% don‟t Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring 5know

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Global approval ratings, EU vs. U.S. % who approved the leadership of the …, as % of those who had any opinion75 EU, 66 65 6665 65 65 60 60 60 60 5955 5445 43 USA, 41 403525 Gallup World Poll, national adults in 100+ countries each year, 153 countries overall15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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EUROPE as role model for governance globally?EU vs. USA approval ratings in global regions, 2012 % who approve the leadership of…, in % of those who had any opinion 90 EU USA 79 80 72 71 70 70 64 62 64 67 64 58 59 58 57 60 60 53 55 51 54 49 51 50 46 40 37 32 29 30 20 10 0 Source: Gallup World Poll

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Core values the EUstands for(perceived) 49% satisfied with the democracy in the EU 8

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Ever closer Union – based on common valuesthink that in values, EU states arevery close to each other (fairlyclose: 39%, fairly distant: 34%, verydistant: 8%) Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring 9

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HOW SIMILAR ARE GOALS AND EXPECTATIONSEUROPE 10

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COUNTRY CLUSTERS ACCORDING TO DESIRED EU PRIORITIES CZECH REP MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SCALING / HIERARCHICAL ESTONIA CLUSTER OF DISTANCES BASED ON RESPONSE SIMILARITY LATVIA HUNGARY SLOVENIA SLOVAKIA DENMARK SWEDEN LITHUANIA ROMANIA BULGARIA BELGIUM FRANCE UK LUXEMBOURG POLAND ITALY MALTA AUSTRIA FINLAND NETHERLANDS GERMANY GREECE CYPRUS SPAIN IRELAND PORTUGAL EUROPE

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Whose interests are taken into account on EU level?The interests of (OUR COUNTRY) are well taken into account in the EU 80 70 60 totally agree 50 40 30 20 10 16 12 7 6 7 5 6 8 5 4 3 6 3 3 4 5 6 4 4 3 6 2 5 2 3 2 2 0 Lithuania Germany Estonia Slovenia Spain Italy Netherlands Austria Hungary Finland Bulgaria Romania Belgium Ireland Portugal Greece Sweden Cyprus France Malta Poland Slovakia Latvia UK Luxembourg Denmark Czech Republic Eurobarometer 12

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Whose interests are taken into account on EU level?The interests of (OUR COUNTRY) are well taken into account in the EU 80 70 70 totally + tend to agree 61 59 60 57 57 53 51 totally agree 49 50 44 44 44 43 43 42 40 39 40 37 35 32 31 31 31 30 29 30 27 27 20 15 10 16 12 7 6 7 5 6 8 5 4 3 6 3 3 4 5 6 4 4 3 6 2 5 2 3 2 2 0 Lithuania Germany Estonia Slovenia Spain Italy Netherlands Austria Hungary Finland Bulgaria Romania Belgium Ireland Portugal Greece Sweden Cyprus France Malta Poland Slovakia Latvia UK Luxembourg Denmark Czech Republic Eurobarometer 13

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Struggle paying month-end bills(from time to time, weighted EU total) Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring 14

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Struggling to make ends meet – differential impact of crisis“During the last twelve months, would you say you had difficulties to pay your bills atthe end of the month...?” – most of the time 50 43 45 2009 40 2010 35 35 2012 30 28 23 24 25 22 22 20 20 20 18 14 15 15 14 15 12 11 9 10 10 7 6 5 6 6 4 5 5 2 2 0 Germany Italy Hungary UK Greece Romania France Luxembourg Slovakia Ireland Malta Poland Spain Austria Finland Bulgaria Denmark Portugal Estonia Lithuania Latvia Netherlands Sweden Cyprus Slovenia Belgium Czech Republic Eurobarometer 15

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believe that the Member Statesshould work more closelytogether, to counter the crisis Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring

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the EU will become stronger “onthe long run”, once the crisis isover % totally agree, Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring

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Optimism vs. pessimism about the future of the EU“Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or verypessimistic about the future of the EU?” – difference between very+fairlyoptimistic and very+fairly pessimistic opinions OPTIMISTIC COUNTRIES PESSIMISTIC COUNTRIES 60 50 40 46 41 38 30 37 20 29 26 26 22 22 20 19 10 17 16 11 11 8 5 3 0 -10 -4 -9 -10 -11 -17 -18 -20 -31 -33 -34 -30 -40 Slovenia Italy Malta Latvia Czech Rep. Hungary Belgium Slovakia Estonia France UK Spain Poland Germany Ireland Finland Cyprus Austria Denmark Romania Lithuania Portugal Bulgaria Netherlands Sweden Greece Luxembourg Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring 18

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Self-evaluated standing between the worst and best possible life in regions of EuropeSource: Gallup WorldPoll, 2011-2012 19

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Hope: % of those who expecta better life in 5 years timeSource: Gallup World Poll 20

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Current stateand expecteddevelopment of theeconomical situation ofthe „region”Source: Flash Eurobarometer, 356 onPublic opinion in EU regionsNUTS1 / NUTS2 regions, 11 (12) MSpresented as a single country 21