a look at the dimensions and correlates of Trust = based on WorldPoll

1. Measuring trust in government
using the Gallup World Poll
Robert Manchin
Gallup
47th Session of the Public
Governance Committee
25th April, 2013
OECD Paris
Dimensions of trust

2. Correlates of trust
Gallup World Poll, using national
representative samples from 150 countries
polled in 2012.
Individual countries are represented in rows
personalfreedom
livingstandard
wellbeing
supportnetwork
trustinothers
trustinmedia
trustinelections
trustinjudiciary
trustininstitutions
trustinpolice
trustinmilitary
trustinfinancialinst.
fightcorruption
trustingovernment
leadershipapproval
stdlivingbetter
economybetter

3. How elements of trust are related?
trustingovernment
approvecountryleadership
satwithgovfightingcorruption
standardoflivingbetter
economicconditionsbetter
trustinfinancialinstitutions
trustinmilitary
trustinpolice
generaltrustingattitude
trustinthejudiciary
trustinelections
trustinthemedia
peoplecanbetrusted
cancountonothersifneeded
well-being
standardofliving
Satisfiedwithpersonalfreedom

4. personalfreedom
livingstandard
wellbeing
supportnetwork
trustinothers
trustinmedia
trustinelections
trustinjudiciary
trustininstitutions
trustinpolice
trustinmilitary
trustinfinancialinst.
fightcorruption
trustingovernment
leadershipapproval
stdlivingbetter
economybetter
Citizens
experience and
evaluate
institutions
differently, but
global patterns
do emerge
Plainly
bad

5. Trust by the financial
markets vs. trust in
financial institutions
Trust in financial institutions, based on
Gallup World Poll results vs. Credit Default
Probability score (sovereign debt) by
CMA Datavision
OECD countries,
Log scale

6. Let us look at two
possible approaches:
Institutional approach
Trust is driven by perceptions of
actual performance of government
Variables (individual perceptions):
• Leaders’ job performance
• Level of corruption in government
• Government’s fight against
corruption
• Economy getting better in the
country
• EQI – a regional "Quality of
Governance" index (NUTS
level/aggregate)
Cultural approach
Cultural values and beliefs drive
perceptions about institutions
Variables used to measure:
• Generalised trust (“people can
be trusted”)
• “trust” ( in various governmental
and public bodies
• Subjective well-being (material
and overall life evaluation)
• Freedom to choose what to do
with your life

7. Quality of
governance drives
trust in national
government?
Yes, but…
Gallup World Poll
results, and Quality of
Government Index,
NUTS regions: BE, DE, IT,
UK
http://www.qog.pol.gu.se/
.51
Belgium
Brussels
Belgium
Vlaams - Gewest
Belgium
Wallonie

8. Quality of governance,
regional differences

9. Culture of trust?
Regional variations
Gallup World Poll
results,
EU27 NUTS regions
.30
Belgium
Brussels
Belgium
Vlaams - Gewest
Belgium
Wallonie

10. Trust in others,
regional differences

11. .71
Gallup World Poll
results,
EU27 NUTS regions
Trust and civic
involvement
strongly related

12. .39Gallup World Poll
results,
EU27 NUTS regions
Wellbeing and trust in government

13. Performance is a strong predictor of trust overall.
But culture of trust plays a great role in the "grey zone" of mediocre
government performance.
Bottom performing 20% Top performing 20%Mid 60%

14. Politics are local?
Satisfaction with local leadership clearly
correlates with trust in government

15. Local objective outcome counts
http://www.qog.pol.gu.se/
.28
.58
Regional EQI versus approval of local
leadership
Regional EQI versus trust in national
government

16. Decline of trust or the tendency of even good
political systems to degenerate ?
53%
67%
41%
28%

17. Trustinnationalgovernment
There are a few exceptions

18. Government
domains
Various branches “produce”
different levels of trust, each
correlated with overall trust in
government
Performances are related –
and patterns vary widely,
despite overall rank order
similarities

19. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
National
government
Judicial
system
Local PoliceEducation
Healthcare
Canada
Greece
Mexico
Sweden
.24 .68
.27.30
Correlations with
trust in government:

20. Range and average trust in various institutions
MAX
MEAN
MIN
GOV
EU27, Confidence in:
government, judiciary, (media), elections, (financial
institutions), military, police

21. MAX
MEAN
MIN
GOV
National governments tend to
be bottom performers
Range and average trust in various national
institutions, compared with the
national government
Confidence in:
government, judiciary, (media), elections, (financial
institutions), military, police

22. satisfied
unsatisfied
Trustisnotequallydistributed
GOV’TTRUST
SATISFACTION WITH LIVING STANDARD

23. The ultimate in citizen
disengagement: trust and
migration
% who would not move the
country versus trust in
government
regional data
Gallup World Poll
GOV’TTRUST
WOULD NOT MOVE EVEN IF HAD THE OPPORTUNITY
LOCAL LEADERSHIP
(GREEN –
GOOD, PURPLE –
BAD)

24. Trustinnationalgovernment
Handling mistrust with
elections?

25. General elections re-electing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment

26. General elections changing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment

27. General elections re-electing governments (31)
General elections changing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment

28. General elections re-electing governments (31)
General elections changing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment
MANAGEMENT OF TRUST:
ACCUMULATED TRUST AS A LEEWAY
FOR THE NEW TERM’S INITIAL
POLICIES, THAN MAKE UP FOR THE
EROSION

29. General elections re-electing governments (31)
General elections changing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment
ANOTHER TYPICAL PATH: CHANGE OF
GOVERNMENT BRINGS HOPE, WHICH
DIMINISHES OVER TIME, LEADING TO
A NEW GOVERNMENT, BRINGING
HOPE AGAIN…

30. General elections re-electing governments (31)
General elections changing governments (31)
Trustinnationalgovernment
ELECTIONS AS TRUST „VALIDATORS”
ARE IMPERFECT:
I.E. PRESIDENTIAL TERMS
I.E. MINORITY
GOVERNMENTS

31. QUESTIONS? MANCHIN@GALLUP.COM
MORE ON GALLUP WORLDPOLL? VISIT
WWW.GALLUP.COM
HTTP://WORLDVIEW.GALLUP.COM