Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 113.08.2007Slides-for-lecture-Christopher-Schläffer.ppt 1
Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AG
Presentation for the IRAHSS 08
René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2
Content.
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
1 Introduction
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.1 Technology Radar
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
2.3 Customer Foresight

The ICT industry has to reinvent itself.
 Any software developer can offer complex servicesHorizontalization
Shift of value
distribution
Market
Liberalization
 To value added services and devices
 Decreasing revenues in core business
Current influences on the ICT industry (examples)

Strategic Foresight is a set of tools for early identification
and assessment of changes in the environment.
Theoretical Foundation
 Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance to
changes happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)
 Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et
al. 1976 )
 They have to be identified in the environment (Boizard 2005, Day/
Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/ Caron 1995)
 They are usually fuzzyand unstructured (Krystek 2007)
 “The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you
are looking for” (Liebl 2005)
Weak Signals

create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and
functional forward view
detect adverse
conditions
guide policy and shape
strategy
explore new markets
explore new products and
services
Innovation
Management
Strategic
Management
Strategic
Controlling
Corporate
Development
Strategic
Foresight
Strategic Foresight creates a coherent and functional
forward view.

In a fast moving environment it is essential
to continuously scan for changes!

Content.
1 Introduction
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion

Three major tools at Deutsche Telekom are
examples for continuous scanning.
Identification, assessment and
anticipation of consumer needs,
lifestyle and socio-cultural trends
Customer Foresight
Technology Radar
Assessment of competitors and
identification and assessment of
products and service in
development or available in lead
markets
Product & Service RadarP&S TR
Identification, assessment and
usage of information on emerging
technologies and technological
discontinuities
Strategic
Foresight

The Technology Radar gives a pre-evaluation of
relevant up-coming technologies for DTAG.
 Summary of technology intelligence findings
 60 technologies with relevance for DT AG
 Technologies are selected according to:
- Relevance for DT AG
- “Not yet covered inside DT AG”
 Technologies are classified according to:
- their development phase
- technological area
- relevance
3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMS
Audio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TV
Semantic Web Services
Music Search
Context Awareness in IMS
Place-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLANRich Internet
EPC
Shared Wireless
SocComp Web 2.0
RuBEE
SOA 2.0
Quadruple Play
Data Stream Mgmt
UC Apps
Supply Line Access
SPEERMINT
VoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle Mgmt
Virtual
MIMO
THz Data Comm
User Centric
Identity
SPARQL
InteractTV
Internet Indirection
SecureBlue
Quantum Communications
UICC
Universal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power
Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network Coding
Molecular Computing
Network DRM
SenseWeb
IP Emergency Calls
Internet Televisions
VoiSearch
MAGNET Beyond
GENI
Mobile Grid
IP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRM
Open (Source) Hardware
Mobile Authoring
HybridOptWi
Image-based queries
Kilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Project Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation
Customized cartoon
OptIPuter
Sentient Things
3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMS
Audio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TV
Semantic Web Services
Music Search
Context Awareness in IMS
Place-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLANRich Internet
EPC
Shared Wireless
SocComp Web 2.0
RuBEE
SOA 2.0
Quadruple Play
3G-Femto-Cell3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMSA-IMS
Audio Inf. MgmtAudio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TVP2P TV
Semantic Web ServicesSemantic Web Services
Music SearchMusic Search
Context Awareness in IMSContext Awareness in IMS
Place-shiftingPlace-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLAN
Voice & Video
over WLANRich InternetRich Internet
EPCEPC
Shared WirelessShared Wireless
SocCompSocComp Web 2.0Web 2.0
RuBEERuBEE
SOA 2.0SOA 2.0
Quadruple PlayQuadruple Play
Data Stream Mgmt
UC Apps
Supply Line Access
SPEERMINT
VoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle Mgmt
Virtual
MIMO
THz Data Comm
User Centric
Identity
SPARQL
InteractTV
Internet Indirection
SecureBlue
Quantum Communications
UICC
Universal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power
Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network Coding
Molecular Computing
Network DRM
SenseWeb
IP Emergency Calls
Internet Televisions
VoiSearch
MAGNET Beyond
GENI
Mobile Grid
IP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRM
Open (Source) Hardware
Mobile Authoring
HybridOptWi
Image-based queries
Kilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Data Stream MgmtData Stream Mgmt
UC AppsUC Apps
Supply Line AccessSupply Line Access
SPEERMINTSPEERMINT
VoIP PeeringVoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle MgmtDocument Lifecycle Mgmt
Virtual
MIMO
Virtual
MIMO
THz Data CommTHz Data Comm
User Centric
Identity
User Centric
Identity
SPARQLSPARQL
InteractTVInteractTV
Internet IndirectionInternet Indirection
SecureBlueSecureBlue
Quantum CommunicationsQuantum Communications
UICCUICC
Universal Chip for
Cell Phones
Universal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop VideoconfDesktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power
Save
WMM™ Power
Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network CodingNetwork Coding
Molecular ComputingMolecular Computing
Network DRMNetwork DRM
SenseWebSenseWeb
IP Emergency CallsIP Emergency Calls
Internet TelevisionsInternet Televisions
VoiSearchVoiSearch
MAGNET BeyondMAGNET Beyond
GENIGENI
Mobile GridMobile Grid
IP Header compressionIP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRME-DRM
Open (Source) HardwareOpen (Source) Hardware
Mobile AuthoringMobile Authoring
HybridOptWiHybridOptWi
Image-based queriesImage-based queries
Kilocore ChipsKilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. MgmtRemote Hardw. Mgmt
Project Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation
Customized cartoon
OptIPuter
Sentient Things
Project FastballProject Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation3-D TV Next Generation
Customized cartoonCustomized cartoon
OptIPuterOptIPuter
Sentient ThingsSentient Things
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low
Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks
Classification within six technologies fields
Technology
Intelligence

The Technology Radar tracks individual
technologies and overall technological trends.
The Technology Radar - A Tool for Technology Intelligence at T-Labs
Informing you about emerging
technologies potentially effecting
DT„s future business.
Emerging Technologies
Gathering in-depth information on
one hot technology field from a
research and business
perspective.
Technology Trend
Reporting on actual activities on
emerging technologies in DT.
Activities
Technology
Intelligence

The Technology Foresight is based on an
international network of scouts
Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification
Technology
Intelligence
Source:Rohrbeck (2007) Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Innovation
Strategy
CTOs and CMOs
R&D and
Product Manager
International
Scout Network
uses sources in
universities & industry
?
?
?
?
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
?
?
?
?

Mobile
Internet
Technology
& Market
The Product & Service RadarThe Technology Radar
 …is identifying and assessing emerging technologies
 …is published by the T-Labs
 …is identifying and assessing emerging products
and services
 …is published by Corporate Product and Innovation
The Product & Service Radar complements
with a scan of start-ups‟ and competitors‟services.

 Target groups create topic-specific
(online) diaries over a
predefined period of time
 Pre-structuring of the diaries,
e.g. referring needs/wants, usability requirements,
drivers/barriers
 Execution of (online) interviews
in order to identify latent needs
& barriers
 Introduction & prioritization of
new product/service functions (mini concepts²)
 Laddering technique to derive means-end-chains
(Online) Diary research (Online) Interviews
Day in the life visits Insight clinic
 Personal, direct interaction
along different “insight” stations
 Topic-specific design: e.g.
product/service confrontation to
identify barriers, group discussions to identify latent needs/
means-end-chains
 Personal customer visits with
cross-functional teams
 Direct interaction with customers
through observation and
interviews
 “User in the box”: Vivid documentation of
ICT-infrastructure & usage patterns
The Consumer Foresight contributes customer
needs and socio-cultural trends at various stages.
Further Reading: Leonard/Rayport 1995; Mrazek et al. 1995, 2 e.g. Durgee et al. 1998
Customer
Foresight

Continuous scanning detects threats and
opportunities.
The most promising opportunities are
then explored, assessed and planned for
implementation.

Content.
1 Introduction
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion

Combination of scenario analysis and roadmapping allows linking
R&D results with innovation and new business development.
Environmental
analysis
Scenario
development
21 Roadmap
development
Navigation board
development
3 4
“The navigation board
allows the continuous
tracking of
assumptions and the
progress towards the
favorable scenario”
“The roadmap defines
milestones and key
developments
needed, to reach the
favorable scenario”
“Multiple distinct
scenarios reflect any
possible future”
“Identifying the key
factors affecting the
new business field”
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.

The Environmental Scanning identifies all relevant
factors that influence the new field.
Environmental scanning
 Factors that influence our core
activities
 Influencing factors from
neighboring industries
 E.g. IT-sector for the
telecommunication industry
 Areas which today have no
connection to our current business,
 but might have an important impact
in the future
Current
Business
Adjacent
environment
White
spaces
Technology
Intelligence
Political
Foresight
Consumer
Foresight
Competitor
Foresight
Current
business
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.

The Scenario Analysis provides three to six
scenarios that represent any possible future.
Alternative scenario
Unfavorable scenario A Unfavorable scenario B
 Description
1 2
3 4
Desired scenario
 Description Description
 Description
Source:Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - StrategicPlanningof Innovationat Deutsche TelekomLaboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on StrategicPlanningof R&D and New Business.
Multiple
distinct
scenarios

A Roadmapping approach allows to integrate business
scenarios with internal R&D results.
20122007 Timeline
FunctionJ
Own functional buildingblocks Needed functionalities
Demand
Products
Aspect 1
Aspect 2
Platform 1
Platform 3
Aspect 3
R&D
results
Domain 2
Platform 2
Domain 1
Domain 3
Domain 4
Domain 5
FunctionA
Building block A
Building block C
Building block B
Building block D
Building block E
Building block G
Building block F
Building block H
Building block I
Building block J
Building block LBuilding block K
Building block M
FunctionB
FunctionC
FunctionD FunctionF
FunctionE FunctionG
FunctionH
FunctionI
Current demand
Tomorrow‟sdemand
Current demand
Tomorrow‟sdemand
Current demand
Tomorrow‟sdemand
Where do we want to go?
Which relevant technologies and capabilities do we
control for competitive differentiation?
Which additional ones do we need?

A Navigation Board provides a management view
on the progress and proposes interventions.
Need for action Monitor closely as planned
Indicator Current Status Needed status Proposed intervention
Overall
Status
Key development
A
Key development
C 6 >3
Key development
B
Key development
D
1 <3
Key development
E 5 <3
 Intervention possibility 1
 Comment 1
 Comment 2
Which external and internal developments
do we need to succeed in the new
business?
(Both internal and external)
What should we do, if
developments are not
moving in the right
direction!

Using scenario analysis with roadmapping
is a strong way to explore and plan the
future.

Content.
1 Introduction
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion

After three years of foresight experience in the T-Labs we
would like to share with you four lessons learned.
Asuccessful
Strategic
Foresight
activity…
 is based on a deep understanding of the need of the decision maker
 engages many internal and external partners
 has a strong tool that enables effective collaboration
 uses a balanced mix of qualitative and quantitative methods
Four lessons learned from T-Labs

Thank you for your interest.
http://futureorientation.net
Conference on Strategic Foresight
RenéRohrbeck
DeutscheTelekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)
rene.rohrbeck@telekom.de
www.rene-rohrbeck.de
Personal contact
http://rene-rohrbeck.de

Thank you very much for your interest!.
René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

Further Reading.
TechnologyRadar
Technology
Scouting
Corporate
Foresight
Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H.M. Arnold. (2006) "The Technology Radar – an
Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy"
The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and
Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983
Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R. (2007) "Technology Scouting - a case study on the
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories"
ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India.
Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R. 2010. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for
the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg and New York: Physica-
Verlag, Springer.

Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

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