The Technology Radar - a Tool of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy

The Technology Radar
An Instrument of Technology Intelligence and
Innovation Strategy
René Rohrbeck, Jörg Heuer, Heinrich Arnold
IEEE-ICMIT Conference, Singapore
21st – 23rd June 2006

Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 1
Abstract.
Motivation, approach and conclusions.
Motivation
 The growing competition in consumer markets is forcing industry to
explore new ways to foster product and service innovations
 The Deutsche Telekom Laboratories have introduced a tool to foster its
technology intelligence capabilities: The Technology Radar
 This paper is used to share best practices and seeks to advance
research in the field of technology intelligence (TI)
Approach
 The presentation of the tool consists of goals, method, some exemplary
findings and its role in technology management
 The paper closes with lessons learned, key success factors and
recommendations for the introduction of an TI system
Conclusions
 Value created by the Technology Radar consists of …
…top management attention
…stimulation of innovation
…direct introduction of external views and impulses
…fostering of the absorptive capacity

I. Introduction.
Definitions of technology intelligence.
Technology
Intelligence
Provision of relevant information on technology and the
evaluation of their impact on the corporation. This information
is then on the one hand used for decision making in R&D and in
corporate strategy; on the other hand it is used to increase the
awareness of the operating units for upcoming opportunities
and risks as well as prepare the receptiveness of the
organization for R&D results. The process consists of gathering,
assessing and communicating technological opportunities and
threats.

II. Goals.
Of the Technology Radar.
Goalsofthe
Technology
Radar
 Early identification of technologies, technological trends and
technological shocks
 Raising the attention for the threats and opportunities of
technological development
 Stimulation of innovation

III. Method.
Process Overview.
Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
? ?
?
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Innovation
Strategy
CTOsandCMOs
ofSBUs
R&D and
ProductManagers

II. Method.
Assessment.
TechnologyRadar
Technological realization complexity
Marketimpact
high low
lowhigh
1
2
3
DTAGRelevance
High
Medium
Low
Assessment
Potential market size
Disruptive potential
Cost savings
Complexity
Implementation risk
Cost

Text Bold = new featured Technology Profile
Market
Ready
Core
Network
Fixed&Mobile
Devices
AccessNetwork
Market
Presence
Product
Concept
Applied
Research
Basic
Research
NetworkServices
Cross-Functional
End-User
Services
SIP ConnectSIP Connect
Vis. Search Interface
Carrier-Independent LBS
AITF Protocol
EPC
VoWiMAX
M5
SPIT
RoF
MIH
KeyStroke Recog.
IPTV
Desktop-2-Go
Aspect-oriented
SW Devel.
Adapt. Opt. Networks
VirtualDirectories
Ad hoc & Mesh
Networks
UMA
Superdistribution
PON
µTCP/IP
$100 Laptop
Open Source RouterOpen Source Router
XML RoutersXML Routers SOASOA
UIPUIP
Quantum
Cryptography
Quantum
Cryptography
Galileo
Trusted ComputingTrusted Computing
DRMDRM
802.11s802.11s
Stratellites
IMS
Anti Spam
Concepts
RSS 2.0
Ajax
Atom 1.0
CR Systems
Embarq
Equip. Ident.Equip. Ident.
VoWLAN
802.16
WiMAX, Wibro
Interactive
Explor. Table
Interactive
Explor. Table
Media RSS
Participatory
Media
Quadruple Play
Self Config.
Mobile Dev.
Self Config.
Mobile Dev.
802.22 WRAN
DLNA RFID Blocker
VA Search
Nano
Satellites
Network
Coding
GENIGENI
Web API’s
DReaM
Place Shifting
DSRC
RFID-DRM
IGRS
ITop Home
Storage
Bricks
DTN
Web 2.0
Retinal
Display
Molecular
Computing
High Precision. Loc.
III. Method.
Dissemination main document.
Dissemination
TechnologyRadarScreen
$100Laptop
Innovation:Telecom operatorscouldsubsidizelaptops,makingthem
virtuallyfree,andtyingthem toservicesubscriptions(e.g.broadband,
cellular,musicorvideoon demand).
Recent technological advances and efforts to eliminate the existing overhead in
today‟s software designs will bring laptops to price points below $100/unit incl.
$10 or more contingency/profit. A $ 100 Laptop will have a 500 MHz CPU with
Linux and 1 GB HD, 1 mega-pixel full-color screen with 12‟‟ diagonal and will be
WiFi and cell phone-enabled.
KeyMessage
Profile
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low

III. Method.
Dissemination add-ons.
Dissemination
 The Technology Profiles are presented and discussedamong the external researchers and
experts. Then the researchers reflect on the profiles and cluster these to larger underlying
trends which are presented in a workshop.
 These trends are then consolidatedinto key trends and further defined and shaped with
experts.
Trend
Workshops
 In depth coverage of one specifictopic from scouting to feature paper to workshop.
 Based on selected technology profiles an expert workshop is set up in order to discuss recent
trends and innovativedevelopmentsrelated to the feature paper.
 The outcome of the workshop are scenariosthat reflect the experts„ view in the defined topic.
Feature
Paper
 Derived from selected business, technology, and R&D trends detailed opinionpapers are
created.
 Opinionpapers are created by DTAG experts and reflect the view of DTAG on a certain topic.
Opinion
Papers
 Based on the SiliconValley InnovationPanel, where T-Labs representativesmet with industry
leaders, university professors, venture capitalists,start up companies and SiliconValley
visionaries,virtualization has been identified as an overarching trend and is featured in the
InnovationPanel Report.
Innovation
Panel
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Selection of 8 Key Trends
Clustering
of Trends
“Stanford Method“
Workshop
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea
Clustering
of Trends
Workshop
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Definition of Focus Topic
Selected Profiles
Feature Paper Workshop
Focus Topic
Definition of Focus Topic
Selected Profiles
Feature Paper Workshop
Focus Topic
Service
Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization
Infrastructure
“sink”
Virtualization
Delivery
Infrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”
Service
Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization
Infrastructure
“sink”
Virtualization
Delivery
Infrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”

IV. Technological Findings.
Feature paper, opinion paper, trend workshop.
Dissemination
“Private Content
GoesPublic”
Trend Workshops
“Virtualization”
Feature
Paper
“IntelligentUserInterfaceswill becomefor telcos,whatproductdesignisforthemanufacturing
industry.”
Today differentformsof communicationare defined moreoften by the interface that is used for establishing
the communicationthan by the underlyingtransporttechnology.For instance,E-Mailand InstantMessaging
both use the Internetfor message transportbut mainlyvary in user interface. In futureNGN dominated
worlds, themajorremainingform of differentiationbetween communicationservices will be the user
interface. What design is for manufacturedproducts,intelligentuser interfaces will become for telco
services.
“IntelligentUser
Interface”
Opinion
Papers
“Youshouldvirtualizeawaytechnology,sothatyoucanreallythinkaboutwhat customerswant
ratherthanwhat technologycando.”
As a framework for the analysis,the impactof technology has been investigated,as well as marketand social
reaction to virtualizationacross the three majorICT infrastructure areas – (1) delivery– comprisingnetworks
and technical platforms,(2) service – encompassingspecific configurations,processes and underlyingIT,
and (3) utilization – being made up of terminaldevices and user interfaces. These three „traditional‟
componentsof value creation at telcos were complementedwith a fourtharea – semantics – an emerging
set of technologiesand trends.
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea
Clustering
of Trends
Workshop
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea
Clustering
of Trends
Workshop
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Service
Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization
Infrastructure
“sink”
Virtualization
Delivery
Infrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”
Service
Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization
Infrastructure
“sink”
Virtualization
Delivery
Infrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”
“Asthecommunicationbecomesakindofcontenttransfer,theconsumerbecomesa
prosumer.”
Communitiesand social software are on the rise. People always likedto show what they are doing.Now,
thanksto currenttechnologicaldevelopment,they can do it on a global level nearly for free. Sharing
personal content in the web is becomingcommonplace: your privatephoto album,your favouriteplaylist,
your personal views, all in theinternet.Moreand morepeople share theirexperiences and opinionsusing
“longtail content”concepts like blogs and become content producers.

V. Value Created…
…by the Technology Radar.
Valuecreated
 Top management attention by…
…creating a document that “sits on the desks of the CTOs and CMOs
 Stimulation of innovation by…
…bringing together people and projects throughout the DTAG
…raising the attention for specific issues
 Direct Introduction of external views and impulses by
…bringing external information directly to top management
 Fostering the absorptive capacity by
…enabling the management of large amount of topics at the same time

VI. Lessons learned.
By the Technology Radar introductions.
Bestpractices
 Radar Screen is a powerful format for the top aggregation level
 Choose scouts with the ability to see beyond a product or technology to
its hidden opportunities
 Choose scout with a large relevant, social network
 Portfolio approach for the technology rating is good method for its
intuitive usage
 Define and describe clearly the criteria used for technology rating
Further
development
steps
 Online dissemination with interaction functionalities
 Enabling the long reach from the reader to the source of information

References (1/4)
Aligica, P.D.(2005) Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 815–824.
Arnold,H.M.(2003) Technology Shocks-origins, Management Responses and Firm Performance. Heidelberg and
New York: Physica Verlag Springer-Verlag GmbH & Co.KG.
Ashton,W.B.(1997) Tech intelligence survey finds few are world-class. Research Technology Management, 40, 3-5.
Bengisu, M.andR.Nekhili (2006) Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology
databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73, 835-844.
Blind,K.,K. Cuhls andH.Grupp(1999) Current Foresight activities in Central Europe. Technological Forecasting &
Social Change, 60, 15-36.
Carlson,L.W.(2004) Using Technology Foresight to Create Business Value. Research Technology Management, 47,
51-60.
Chermack,T.J. (2005) Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological
Forecasting& Social Change, 72, 59–73.
Cohen,W.M. andD.A.Levinthal (1990) Absorptive-Capacity - a New Perspective on Learning and Innovation.
Administrative Science Quarterly, 35, 128-152.
References.

References (1/4)
Gerybadze,A.(1994) Technology forecasting as a process of organisational intelligence. R & D Management, 24,
131.
Hauptmann,O.andS.L.Pope(1992) The process of applied technology forecasting: a study of executive analysis,
anticipation, and planning. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 42, 193-211.
Hoetker,G.(1999) Patterns in patents: Searching the forest not the trees. EContent, 22, 37-45.
Katz,R.andT. J. Allen (1982) Investigating the Not Invented Here (Nih) Syndrome - a Look at the Performance,
Tenure, and Communication Patterns of 50 R-and-D Project Groups. R & D Management, 12, 7-19.
Kuwahara,T. (1999) Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 60, 5-
14.
Lee,S.andY. Park(2005) Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall
process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 567–583.
Lichtenthaler, E.(2005) The choice of technology intelligence methods in multinationals: towards a contingency
approach. International Journal of Technology Management, 32, 388-407.
Norling,P.M., J. P.Herring,W.A.Rosenkrans,Jr., M.Stellpflug andS.B. Kaufman (2000) Putting competitive
technology intelligence to work. Research Technology Management, 43, 23-28.
References.

References (1/4)
Pappas,C.(1984) Strategic Management of Technology. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 1, 30-35.
Patton,K.M.(2005) The role of scanning in open intelligence systems. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,
72, 1082–1093.
Phaal,R.,C.Farrukh,R.Mitchell andD.Probert(2003) Technology roadmapping: Starting-up roadmapping fast.
Research Technology Management, 46, 52-58.
Phaal,R.,C.J. P.FarrukhandD.R.Probert(2006) Technology management tools: concept, development and
application. Technovation, 26, 336–344.
Porter,A.L.,A.T.Roper,T.W.Mason,F.A.RossiniandJ. Banks (1991) Forecasting and Management of
Technology: John Wiley & Sons Inc
Postma,T. J. B. M.andF.Liebl(2005) How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?
Rohrbeck,R.,J. Heuer,andH.M.Arnold(2006) "The Technology Radar - an Instrument of Technology
Intelligence and Innovation Strategy" The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and
Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983
Rohrbeck,R.(2010) "Harnessing a network of experts for competitive advantage - Technology Scouting in the
ICT industry" R&D Management, 40(2), 169-180.
References.

References (1/4)
Schmoch,U.(1999) Patent statistics in the age of globalisation: new legal procedures, new analytical methods, new
economic interpretation. Research Policy, 28, 377-396.
Shehabuddeen,N., D.ProbertandR.Phaal(2006) From theory to practice: challenges in operationalising a
technology selection framework. Technovation, 26, 324–335.
Vicente, J. M. andF.Palop(1996) Technology monitoring and industrial diversification: A diversification project of an
endogamic monoclonal industrial fabric by disseminating innovation opportunities. International Journal of
Technology Management, 12, 449-461.
Weimer-Jehle, W.(2006) Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis.
Wells, R.,R.Phaal, C.FarrukhandD.Probert(2004) Technology Roadmapping for a Service Organization.
Research Technology Management, 47, 46-51.
Wolff,M.F.(1992) Scouting for Technology. Research Technology Management, 35, 10.
References.

The Technology Radar - a Tool of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to The Technology Radar - a Tool of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy

Similar to The Technology Radar - a Tool of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

The Technology Radar - a Tool of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy

Editor's Notes