Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions

Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR)
Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT)
Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS)
Center for Political and Democratic Reforms, Inc. (CPDRI)

CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com

ROMMEL C. BANLAOI
Chairman of the Board and Executive Director
Vice President, Philippine Association for Chinese Studies

The
modern
history
of
Philippines-‐
China
rela5ons
is
a
tale
of
connec5ng

and
distancing,
of
love
and
hate,
of

amity
and
enmity,
admira5on
and

admoni5on,
and
of
hedging,

engaging,

balancing,
and
guessing.

www.pipvtr.com

The
ancient
history
of
Philippines-‐
China
rela5ons
is
a
very
long

history
of
good
neighborliness,

harmony
and
mutual
respect.

www.pipvtr.com

• The
Kingdom
of

Butuan
was
in

contact
with
the

Song
dynasty
of

China
between
960

and
1279
AD.

www.pipvtr.com

• On
17
March
1001,

King
Kiling
of
Butuan

(a
Mindanao

province)
organized

the
ﬁrst
tributary

mission
to
China

www.pipvtr.com

• In
1417,
Paduka
Batara,
the
Sultan
of
Sulu,

went
to
China
for
a
tributary
mission
during

the
reign
of
Emperor
Yung
Lo
(Pinyin,
Yung
Le).

• Between
1420-‐1424,
exchanged
missions

between
China
and
Mindanao
occurred

www.pipvtr.com

Ancient
Chinese
Map
showing

Philippine
Islands

www.pipvtr.com

• 1945-‐1949

Moment
of
Amity
(AVer
WW2)

• 1949-‐1974

Era
of
HosYlity
(During
the
Cold
War)

• 1975-‐1995

NormalizaYon
Period
(Comprehensive
RelaYons)

• 1995-‐2000

Troubled
RelaYons
(in
the
Mischief
Reef)

• 2000-‐2005

Rebuilding
and
Sustaining
Friendship

Enhancing
CooperaYon

(Use
of
China’s
soV
power
and
charm
oﬀensives)

• 2005-‐2009

“Golden
Age”
for
Strategic
Partnership

• 2009-‐2011

Turbulent
Moments

• 2012

Standoﬀ
(in
the
Scarborough
Shoal)

• 2012-‐2013

Years
of
Friendly
Exchanges?

www.pipvtr.com

• VISITS
TO
CHINA
BY
PHILIPPINE
PRESIDENTS

– President
Ferdinand
E.
Marcos:

7
June
1975

– President
Corazon
C.
Aquino:
14
April
1988

– President
Fidel
V.
Ramos:
25
April
1993

– President
Joseph
E.
Estrada:
16
May
2000

– President
Gloria
Macapagal-‐Arroyo:

• 29
October
2001

•
1-‐3
September
2004

•
27
October-‐2
November
2006

• 21
April
2007

• 5-‐6
June
2007

•
1-‐2
October

2007

•
30
March
-‐1
April
2008

• 7-‐10
August
2008

• 23-‐27
October
2008

• 8-‐9
June
2010

2005
THE GOLDEN
AGE OF
PHILIPPINES-
CHINA
RELATIONS

www.pipvtr.com

State
visit
to
China

of
President
Benigno
Aquino
III

1
September
2011

• Both
countries
agreed
that
the
Joint
Ac5on
Plan
for
Strategic

Coopera5on
signed
by
the
two
sides
on
29
October
2009
will

conYnue
to
guide
cooperaYon
in
all
ﬁelds.

www.pipvtr.com

• Philippines-‐China

RelaYons
are

comprehensive

spanning
diplomaYc,

social,
cultural,

economic
and
military

aspects

www.pipvtr.com

• Then
Chinese
President
Hu

declared
the

2012
and
2013
as

the
Philippines-‐China

Years
of
Friendly
Exchanges.

www.pipvtr.com

www.pipvtr.com

• Situa5on
in
the
Scarborough
Shoal

• RP
Submission
of
WPS
Claims
to
Interna5onal

Tribunal

• Increasing
Tensions
in
the
2nd
Thomas
(Ayungin

Shoal)

• Uncertain5es
on
the
passage
of
the
Code
of

Conduct
in
the
South
China
Sea

• Mari5me
na5onalism

www.pipvtr.com

• Scarborough

Shoal
Situa5on

– EffecYvely
taken

over
by
China
in

May
2012
aVer

the
standoff

– China
fully

controls
now
all

fishing
acYviYes
in

the
area

www.pipvtr.com

• RP
Submission
of
WPS
Claims
to
Interna5onal

Tribunal

– PH
lost
paYence
of
direct
bilateral
talks
to
peacefully

seele
disputes
(1995-‐2012)

– China
was
embarrassed
and
ignored
the
arbitraYon.

– PH
considered
the
arbitraYon
a
“moral
victory”.

– China
emphasized
the
need
for
direct
talks
to
seele

disputes
peacefully

www.pipvtr.com

• Increasing
Tensions
in

the
2nd
Thomas
Shoal

(Ayungin
Shoal)

– China
thinks
that
PH
is

strengthening
its

presence
in
the
shoal

– China
wants
the

grounded
ship

removed

www.pipvtr.com

• Uncertain5es
on
the
Passage
of
the

COC

– Vietnam
and
the
Philippines
want
to

double
up
the
process
in
passing
the

COC

– Malaysia
and
Brunei
approve
the

general
principle
of
having
a
COC
but

they
remain
quite
on
the
issue

– Indonesia,
Singapore
and
Thailand
are

anxious
to
pass
the
COC
but
not
pushing

hard
for
it

– Cambodia,
Myanmar
and
Laos
seem
to

be
disinterested
on
the
issue
of
the
COC

– China
is
not
in
a
hurry
to
pass
the
COC

as
it
is
saYsﬁed
with
the
DOC.
It
wants

to
implement
ﬁrst
the
DOC.

www.pipvtr.com

• Mari5me
na5onalism

– Territorial
disputes
between
the

Philippines
and
China
have

triggered
naYonalist
reacYons

from
their
respecYve
ciYzens.

– Involvement
of
the

emoYonal

public
in
the
territorial
disputes

complicate
the
nature
of
the

already
complex
problem
in
the

South
China
Sea.

www.pipvtr.com

• Fate
of
the
Code
of
Conduct
in
the
South

China
Sea

• Result
of
Interna5onal
Arbitra5on

• Status
of
the
Scarborough
Shoal

www.pipvtr.com

• Code
of
Conduct
in
the
South
China
Sea

– If
passed,
its
departure
from
the
DOC
will
not
be
far
as
the

current
draV
talks
about
generaliYes
and
does
not
specify

measures
to
account
possible
violators.

• Though
it
will
be
legally
binding,
ASEAN
has
a
poor
track
record
in

enforcing
regional
rules.

– Thus,
bilateralism
maeers

strongly
in
enforcement.

•
PH
and
PRC
have
to
cul5vate
be`er
bilateral
rela5ons.

– COC
does
not
aim
to
seele
sovereignty
disputes.

• It
aims
to
provide
rules
for
“good
manners
and
right
conduct”
at
sea
to
avoid

untoward
incidents
and
arm
situaYon
in
the
mariYme
domain
of
the
South
China

Sea.

www.pipvtr.com

• Code
of
Conduct
in
the
South
China
Sea

– If
not
passed,
claimants
are
not
prevented
from
pursuing

unilateral
acYons
that
can
open
the
Pandora’s
box
of

accidents
and
miscalculaYon
of
risks

– Unilateral
acYons
can
encourage
“arms
racing”
behavior

of
claimants
to
deter
one
another
from
intruding
in
their

claimed
mariYme
areas.

– Rule
of
para-‐military
force
(if
not
convenYonal
force)

rather
than
rule
of
law
will
prevail
in
the
South
China
Sea

– Philippines-‐China
security
rela5ons
will
be
in
the

constant
“guessing
game”,
if
not

in
the
perpetual

conﬂict.

www.pipvtr.com

• Result
of
Interna5onal
Arbitra5on

– If
PH
wins
the
case

• InternaYonal
recogniYon
of
Philippine

mariYme
rights
will
have
profound
and

problemaYc
implicaYons
for
the
rest
of
the

claimants
(from
moral
victory
to
legal
victory).

• PH
sYll
needs
to
talk
to
China
bilaterally
for

enforcement.

www.pipvtr.com

• Result
Interna5onal
Arbitra5on

– If
PH
loses
the
case,
that’s
the
end
of
its

mariYme
claims

• Moral
victory
for
China?

• Nightmare
for
the
rest
of
the
claimants?

• Will
PH
remove
its
faciliYes
in
its
occupied
land

features?

www.pipvtr.com

• Status
of
Scarborough
Shoal

– Good:

PromoYon
of
open
ﬁshing
acYviYes

and
coordinated
mariYme
patrols

– Bad:

China
to
ground
ship
on
the
shoal
to

establish
a
more
permanent
physical

presence.

– PH
will
maintain
safe
distance
as
a

prevenYve
measure.

www.pipvtr.com

• Overlapping
ﬁshing
acYviYes
and
increasing
mariYme
patrols
of

parYes
around
the
disputed
waters
in
the
South
China
Sea
can

raise
the
possibility
of
accidental
mariYme
clash
that
can
lead
to

violent
incidents.

• An
unintenYonal
accidental
clash
can
lead
to
unintended
armed

skirmishes
that
all
parYes
do
not
want
to
occur.

www.pipvtr.com

• The
recent
tension
between
the

Philippines
and
Taiwan
over
the

killing
on
9
May
2013
of
a

Taiwanese
ﬁsherman
on
the

contested
water
demonstrates
the

risk
of
a
potenYal
violent
conﬂict

that
can
happen
in
the
mariYme

domain.

• Involvement
of
the
public
in
the

can
complicate
the
situaYon.

www.pipvtr.com

• China
is
the
world’s
number
2
largest
economy.

– In
2040,
the
Chinese
economy
will
reach
$123
trillion,
or

nearly
three
Ymes
the
economic
output
of
the
enYre

globe
in
2000.

• The
Philippines
has
become
Asia’s
fastest
growing

economy

– GDP
grew
by
7.8%
during
the
ﬁrst
quarter
of
2013

outpacing
China,
which
grew
by
7.7%.

www.pipvtr.com

• Economics
can
bring
the
Philippines
and
China
closer

together.

• But
poliYcs
over
the
issue
of
the
South
China
Sea
is

tearing
both
countries
apart.

• Can
we
just
allow
the
future
genera5on
solve
the

South
China
Sea
problem
to
enable
China
and
the

Philippines
to
work
together
now

in
other
ﬁelds?

www.pipvtr.com

Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (6)

Similar to Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions

Similar to Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions (20)

More from Rommel Banlaoi

More from Rommel Banlaoi (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions