Understand how volume and value are related, how this affects companies' performance, and how future demand will influence both volume and value

1. Evaluating and forecasting the
lithium market from a value
perspective
Robert Baylis
30th January 2013

2. Disclaimer
The statements in this presentation represent the considered views of Roskill
Information Services Ltd. It includes certain statements that may be deemed
"forward-looking statements“. All statements in this presentation, other than
statements of historical facts, that address future market developments, government
actions and events, are forward-looking statements. Although Roskill Information
Services Ltd. believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statements
are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future
performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in
forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in forward-looking statements include changes in general
economic, market or business conditions.
While Roskill Information Services Ltd. has made every reasonable effort to ensure
the veracity of the information presented it cannot expressly guarantee the accuracy
and reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions contained herein.
Accordingly, the statements in the presentation should be used for general guidance
only.

3. Overview
• Market dynamics:
• Producer market share by value
• Product value and volume
• Product markets:
• Technical products
• Battery products
• Organolithium & specialty products
• Market outlook and product impact
• Summary

4. Market dynamics

5. Sales by company across market area (US$M), 2011/12
Source: Rockwood Lithium; FMC Lithium; SQM; Tianqi; Talison; Ganfeng; Roskill estimates
Notes: Rockwood LTE 2012; FMC FY 2011;SQM LTE 2012; Tianqi + Talison FY 2011/12;
Ganfeng FY2011; Tianqi + Talison technical salts includes mineral sales
Lithium market share by value shows how product diversification can
increase turnover substantially
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
ROC FMC SQM Tianqi +
Talison
Ganfeng Other 20ktpy BG
LCE
producer
Organolithium Battery Technical Speciality/metal

6. Speciality/metal Organlithium Battery Technical
Cat-grade lithium
metal
Butylithium Battery-grade lithium
carbonate
Technical-grade
lithium carbonate
High purity
lithium salts
Hexyllithium Battery-grade lithium
hydroxide
Direct-use
minerals
Lithium aluminum
hydride (LAH)
Methyllithium Battery-grade lithium
metal
Technical-grade
lithium hydroxide
Lithium hexa-
methyldisilazide
Phenyllithium Lithium salts, e.g.
lithium fluoride
Lithium
hypochlorite
Lithium bromide Lithium chloride
Value
Volume
Product groupings can be roughly drawn around specific markets and
product types

7. Tech-grade LC
Batt-grade LC
Tech-grade LH
Batt-grade LH
Tech-grade LM
Batt-grade LM
Organollithium
Foil LM
Lithium hexa-
methyldisilazide
Lithium aluminium
hydride
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 10 100 1000
Conversionsteps(No.)
Added value
Rockwood Lithium: Profitability of selected lithium products, 2012
Source: Rockwood Lithium
Note: Size of bubbles represents profitability of products
Profitability is not necessarily restricted to higher priced products, and will
vary by producer depending on costs

8. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Lithium hypochlorite Tech-grade LC Batt-grade LC Batt-grade LH
Batt-grade LH Tech-grade LH Tech-grade LB Cat-grade LM
Batt-grade LM Butyllithium
Complexity, price and market size of selected lithium products, 2012
Source: Roskill estimates
Note: Size of bubbles represents size of market in LCE terms; market volume representative
of chemical market only (i.e. not including mineral direct use)
There are very few areas with which to increase added value in the
lithium market, so all avenues are explored by producers
>90% by volume
<US$10,000/t
5-10% by volume
US$30-40,000/t
<1% by volume
>US$1,000/kg

9. World: Lithium market size by volume and value, 2012 (t LCE and US$)
Source: Roskill estimates
There is a significant contrast between market volume and market value,
with organolithium and other specialty products contributing most to value
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Batt-grade LC
Tech-grade LC
Mineral direct-use
Tech-grade LH
Lithium bromide
Organolithium
OtherBatt-grade LH
Lithium hypochlorite
Batt-grade LM
High-purity LC
Cat-grade LM
Lithium chloride
Volume Value

10. Technical products

11. Technical products generally only require one or two process steps
Mineral conversion Brine processing
Lithium carbonateLithium hydroxide Lithium chloride
Technical-grade
Technical-grade Battery-grade High purity
Battery-grade Low sodium metal High sodium metal
Lithium bromide
Technical-grade
Mineral production Brine production
Mineral products

12. Lithium products for technical markets and their key end-uses
Other salts Lithium
hydroxide
Lithium carbonate Minerals
Air treatment Greases Glass-ceramics Glass
Pool water
treatment
Reagents Ceramic & enamel
frits & glazes
Ceramics
Construction
chemicals
Other Casting powders Glass-ceramics
Dehumidification
& CO2 removal
Glass Casting powders
Other Aluminium smelting Other
Other
Value
Volume

13. Important factors to consider when supplying technical products
• Market is concentrated in Europe, USA and East Asia, but small
volumes are consumed across a large number of countries
• Logistics and distribution networks are critical as volumes generally
higher compared to other lithium products (especially when including
minerals)
• Consumers may buy material in bulk or bagged; some carry stock,
some want “just-in-time”
• Grade may be less critical for some applications, but will vary even
within different end-use sectors
• Product form can also vary across end-uses, e.g. particle size
• Consistency and reliability of supply perhaps more important than
grade
• Pricing is competitive

14. Battery products

15. Battery products also generally require only one or two process steps,
but feed and quality control is much more rigorous
Mineral conversion Brine processing
Lithium carbonateLithium hydroxide Lithium chloride
Technical-grade
Technical-grade Battery-grade High purity
Battery-grade Low sodium metal High sodium metal
Lithium salts
Technical-grade
Mineral production Brine production
Mineral products

16. Lithium products for batteries and their markets
Other salts Battery-grade
lithium metal
Battery-grade
lithium
hydroxide
Battery-grade
lithium
carbonate
Lithium-ion
electrolyte
solutions
Primary battery
anodes
Lithium-ion
cathode
materials
Lithium-ion
cathode
materials
Other Rechargeable
“primary” batteries
Primary battery
electrolytes
Lithium-ion
electrolyte
solutions
Lithium polymer
batteries
Other Primary battery
cathodes
Other Other
Value
Volume

17. Important factors to consider when supplying battery products
• Market is concentrated in East/South Asia, with lower volumes in
Europe and USA, and in a smaller number of countries compared to
technical products
• Logistics and distribution networks still critical (especially as volumes
grow); metal products require careful handling
• Bagged material prevails to prevent contamination
• Grade is important, but impurities and foreign particles even more so
• Product form can also vary across end-uses, especially for metal
products
• Consistency and reliability of supply imperative
• Competition is growing for lower value, higher volume salts (e.g.
battery-grade lithium carbonate), but more restricted for higher value
products
• Pricing is becoming increasingly competitive

18. Organolithium, metal and
specialty products

19. Organolithium and specialty products generally require more process
steps
Mineral conversion Brine processing
Lithium carbonate Lithium chloride
High purity
Low sodium metal High sodium metal
Lithium salts Organolithium LDA/LAH/LHS

20. Organolithium and other specialty products and their uses
Other Organolithium Specialty salts Lithium metal
Lithium hydride Polymers High purity
carbonate etc.
Polymers
Lithium aluminium
hydride(LAH)
Organic synthesis Lithium inorganics
(nitrate, sulphate
etc.)
Catalysts
Lithium hexa-
methlydialiszide
Agrochemicals Lithium organics
(acetate etc.)
Alloys
Other Other Other Other
Value
Volume

21. Important factors to consider when supplying organolithium & specialty
products
• Market is varied depending on product and end-use, e.g. catalysts and
organoltihium in USA, Europe, East/Southeast Asia and India
• Logistics and distribution networks closer to end markets due to
hazardous nature of organic and metal products, and products require
very careful handling
• Bagged or sealed material prevails to prevent reaction and
contamination
• Products designed and produced to tight customer specification, high
level of technical support and R&D
• Consistency and reliability of supply imperative
• Competition is thin, especially for organolithium and high value
inorganic and organics
• Pricing is opaque, cost of lithium in process becomes a minor concern

22. Market outlook

23. World: Consumption of lithium by end-use, 2000-2017 (t LCE)
Source: Lithium: Market Outlook to 2017, Roskill Information Services Ltd.
Consumption growth may exceed 11%py, even in the base-case
scenario, as demand from 3C, EV and off-grid battery markets increase
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rechargeable batteries Ceramics Glass-ceramics Greases
Glass Metallurgical powders Air treatment Pharmaceutical & chemicals
Aluminium Polymer Other
11%py
10%py

24. World: Consumption of lithium by type, 2007, 2012 & 2017 (t LCE)
Source: Lithium: Market Outlook to 2017, Roskill Information Services Ltd.
Non-LIB market to grow 20% by 2017 = 20,000t LCE additional demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2012-2017 growth
+134%
+22%
+14%
+22%
+9%
+700%
+25% +57%
+20% +10% +13% +10%
+10%
2007
2012
2017

25. World: Lithium market size by volume and value, 2017
Source: Roskill estimates
Volume will move upwards for battery-grade salts relatively quickly, but
significant value will still remain in specialty products
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Batt-grade LC
Batt-grade LH
Tech-grade LC
Mineral direct-use
Tech-grade LH
Organolithium
Lithium bromideOther
Lithium hypochlorite
High-purity LC
Cat-grade LM
Cat-grade LM
Lithium chloride
Volume Value

26. Summary
• A wide spectrum of lithium products are produced to meet the needs of a
diverse range of end-uses
• Volume is centered on relatively low priced lithium salts that, for the most part,
are straightforward to produce
• Value is however centered on high value metal and organolithium products, which
are not so easy to produce; competition in these is limited
• Non- rechargeable battery market forecast to grow by 20% in five years =
20,000t LCE additional requirement
• Rechargeable battery market forecast to grow by ~200% in five years = 90,000t
LCE additional requirement
• Incumbent producers will look firstly to capture growth in high revenue
generating products
• Secondly they will look at higher revenue generating battery products, perhaps
shifting away from technical salts
• Thus potentially leaving new producers to fulfill demand at the bottom of the
value chain; progressing downstream as opportunities arise

27. Roskill Information Services
“Lithium: Market Outlook to 2017”
• New Multi-Client Report Available March 2013
• Pre-publication delegate offer available – save 10%
“Roskill’s Lithium Digest”
• Tracking news and trends in the lithium business
• Available quarterly
• Free copies available

28. Robert Baylis
Managing Director; Manager – Minor Metals Research
About the speaker
Robert Baylis is Managing Director of Roskill Information Services
Ltd. Roskill is based in London, UK, and provides reports and
consultancy services on the supply, demand, end-use applications,
trade and prices of industrial minerals, minor metals and steel
alloys. Robert joined Roskill in 2006 focusing initially on the cobalt
market, which, similarly to lithium, was starting to witness significant
interest due to lithium-ion battery and emerging market demand
growth. He first started researching the lithium market in mid-2008,
authoring Roskill’s 11th edition of its multi-client lithium report
published in 2009. Since 2009, he has undertaken several single-
client research projects on lithium, as well as being a regular
speaker at the Lithium Supply and Markets conference.

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