The Silicon Valley Bank 2016 State of the Wine Industry Presentation is a companion to the report of the same name. The Silicon Valley Bank 2016 State of the Wine Industry Report identifies trends and current issues facing the U.S. wine industry and offers data and observations wineries can use to develop their business strategies.
Silicon Valley Bank's wine report is based on its in-house expertise as one of the largest bankers to the West Coast wine industry for nearly 20 years, a proprietary database of more than a decade of winery financials, ongoing research, and an annual survey of 500+ West Coast wineries. Learn more at http://www.svb.com/wine-report/.
Silicon Valley Bank 20165 State of the Wine Industry Presentation
1. State of the Wine Industry 2016
Videocast Presentation
Rob McMillan
EVP & Founder, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division
Follow Rob (@SVBWine)
Join the conversation at #SVBWine
2. Panelists
• Jeff Bitter, Allied Grape Growers
• Amy Hoopes, Chief Marketing Officer/EVP Global Sales, Wente
Family Estates
• Paul Mabray, Chief Strategy Officer of Vintank
• Rob McMillan, EVP & founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division
2
7. Segment Performance in Table Wine
Nielsen Beverage
52 weeks 12-5-2015
$ Vol
Table Wine
$ Share
Table Wine
$ Shr Chg
Case Vol
Table Wine
Case Share
Table Wine
Case Shr
Chg
TOTAL TABLE WINE 13,226,095,260 100.0 - 159,757,531 100.0 -
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 0-2.99 828,850,252 6.3 (0.4) 28,594,622 17.9 (1.2)
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 3-5.99 4,041,378,691 30.6 (1.3) 68,618,309 43.0 (0.5)
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 6-8.99 1,681,255,025 12.7 (0.9) 18,602,352 11.6 (0.4)
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 9-11.99 3,049,547,575 23.1 0.7 25,347,167 15.9 0.9
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 12-14.99 1,773,554,251 13.4 0.9 11,277,079 7.1 0.7
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE 15-19.99 991,226,591 7.5 0.7 4,759,017 3.0 0.3
TTL GLOBAL TBL BE >20 853,289,202 6.5 0.3 2,507,566 1.6 0.1
Source: Nielsen Beverage Group
7
8. Imported Bulk Wine to U.S.
Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015 8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Top Countries by Volume
Chile New Zealand Australia Argentina Italy
MillionsofHectoliters
16. 30%
23%
39%
4%
5%
Tasting Room
Wine Club
Wholesale
Export
Other
Wine Club
Wholesale
Percentage of Total Sales by Distribution Channel
DtC is Critical for Success
16
Source: 2016 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015
Tasting Room
Almost 60% of the
Average Winery's
sales are direct
today.
17. Summary Findings
• Sales growth in fine wine in the range of 9%-13%.
• Imports will gain U.S. market share in bottled wine
• Low priced generic/jug wine, dying/dead
• Drop in per-capita and total domestic wine consumption temporarily.
• Large wine companies will continue to buy premium brands and
property.
• DtC still with strong growth but threatened with local regs
• Modest bottle price increases expected this year in fine wine
17
18. Forecast Changes in U.S. Cohort Purchase Share
(Fine Wine)
Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015 18
12%
46%
27%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Gen Z Millenial Gen X Boomers Matures
2015-2035
2015 2025 2035
19. Total Growth Rates of CA Regions
Source: Correia Company, CASS Grape Acreage Report 19
26. Relative Magnitude of 2015 Harvest Quality
Despite lower yields overall, all major wine regions reported “above average” or “excellent” harvest quality in 2015.
8.57
8.13
8.03
7.97
7.87
7.78
7.74
7.62
7.56
7.44
7.42
7.34
7.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Oregon
Mid-Coastal, CA
Sonoma County, CA
Napa County, CA
2015 Average
Santa Barbara & San Luis Obispo, CA
Virginia
Sierra Foothills, CA
Washington State
Lodi & Other Delta Counties, CA
Paso Robles, CA
Other
Anderson Valley & Mendocino County, CA
1 = Historical Low 5 = Historical Average 9 = Historical High
26Source: 2016 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015
27. Relative Magnitude of 2015 Harvest Yield
7.80
5.81
4.77
4.34
3.55
3.00
3.00
2.85
2.62
2.60
2.56
1.63
1.58
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Oregon
Virginia
Washington State
Other
2015 Average
Lodi & Other Delta Counties, CA
Anderson Valley & Mendocino County, CA
Sierra Foothills, CA
Napa County, CA
Sonoma County, CA
Santa Barbara & San Luis Obispo, CA
Mid-Coastal, CA
Paso Robles, CA
1 = Historical Low 5 = Historical Average 9 = Historical High
27Source: 2016 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015
28. Changing Landscape
2010 vs. Now…..
• Bearing Acreage (Up 10%)
• 500,000 to 550,000.
• Yield (up 5%)
• Average 2006-2010 - 6.8 tons/acre.
• Average 2011-2015 - 7.2 tons/acre.
• Imports (up 15%)
• 2006-2010 import average - 99M cases annually,
• 2011-2015 import average - 114M cases annually.
• Strength of US Dollar – DXY Index (up 25%)
• At end of 2010 was +/-80
• At end of 2015 was +/-100
Source: Allied Grape Growers. All rights reserved
29. Production Capability…..
2009 3,703,031 490,000 7.56
2010 3,588,985 500,000 7.18
2011 3,342,689 510,000 6.55
2012 4,018,237 525,000 7.65
2013 4,244,891 540,000 7.86
2014 3,894,397 550,000 7.08
2015 3,700,000 555,000 6.67
2016* 4,141,450 565,000 7.33
2017* 4,202,560 571,000 7.36
2018* 4,255,000 575,000 7.40
Average per acre yield from 2009-2014: 7.31
*2016-2018 assume approx 1% coastal & 6% interior attrition rates
Crop Year
Winegrape Tons
Crushed or
Estimated
AGG Estimated
Bearing
Winegrape Acres
Estimated
Average
Winegrape Yield
Source: Allied Grape Growers. All rights reserved